Wed. Feb. 1, 2023 – 1/12 of the way…

By on February 1st, 2023 in culture, decline and fall, personal

Cold again.  Wet again.  Overcast again.  Dreary again.   Jeez, it’s the third day of this cr@p and you’d think it was the third year.  It’s winter FFS.

And I’m SOOOOOooooo not looking forward to John Ringo’s prophesy in The Last Centurion coming true so I can enjoy my kula bar.   We don’t want to live in a John Ringo novel.

Spent yesterday doing some things, and going some places.  Ok that’s already old.   Did my errands.   Some of them anyway.   Tried not to tempt the universe by announcing my plans, but I got stuck anyway.

I did get some more stuff out of the toy room/library/future GS cookie warehouse, and the foyer.  More will leave today.  Wife is serious about having my stuff out of the way so the cookies can be dealt with properly.

Tried a new thing for dinner, a Kraft cheesy box meal, chicken with rice and broccoli.   Used two cans of Costco chicken.   Did the optional crushed Ritz cracker topping, toasted brown under the broiler.  It was really good.  Like an old school casserole.    Kids and wife liked it a lot.   Always nice to have another way to use my primary stored protein.

Today will involve some grocery shopping.  Maybe Costco but certainly HEB.  I am out of eggs after we finish this carton.   I could use some more cream too.  And fresh veg if they have any that look ok.  Baked beans in cans.  On sale meat…..   the usual.

Between shopping and cleaning, I’ll try to either do some more organizing at my storage unit, or list some ebay stuff.   I might put a couple of the freezers on craigslist.   I think I’ll hit up a few more friends first though.  Meatspace, after all.

Do what you can to help your friends get ready.  Stack up some good will.  Doesn’t have to be specifically “prepper” just want them to think of you in a positive way.   “Man, Nick really helped us out that time, I’d hate to see anything bad happen to him…”

Stacks of food will help too.

nick

79 Comments and discussion on "Wed. Feb. 1, 2023 – 1/12 of the way…"

  1. Nick Flandrey says:

    37F and windy and wet.   Yuck.

    n

  2. brad says:

    Got 80+ first-semester programming exams graded Monday/Tuesday. I must be going soft: 72% passed.

    Now I have the next set, another 60 or so. I’m teaching a totally new course starting end of February, and haven’t even be able to start preparing the course. Teachers have time off between semesters, did you know?

    It’s also strange the way the charges are offered.   EITHER he did it during the commission of an unlawful act, or he did it during the commission of a lawful act.   Doesn’t seem right that the DA can have it both ways.  Pick one and make the case.  

    The way criminal charges are filed really needs an overhaul. If you look at charges for any particular crime, it’s always a laundry list. Throw everything at the person, and see what you can make stick. Charge them with X, with attempted X, with conspiracy to commit X, with aggravated X, with…

    Shouldn’t be allowed. Pick a charge and prosecute it.

    Lots of things shouldn’t even be crimes. Remember Martha Stewart? She was charged with makes false statements, specifically “Stewart lied when she told the SEC, FBI and prosecutors that she did not recall being told…”. Charging someone for not remembering something? How, exactly, is either side supposed to prove its case? Yet that charge (and others like it) sent her to jail.

    I’ll also pipe up against things like “hate crimes” – laws like that are now making their way from the US into European legislation. If you assault someone (or whatever), what difference does it make why you did it? Crimes should be objectively defined…

  3. SteveF says:

    Stack up some good will.  Doesn’t have to be specifically “prepper” just want them to think of you in a positive way.   “Man, Nick really helped us out that time, I’d hate to see anything bad happen to him…”

    Optimist. “Man, Nick really helped us out that time. Next time I need something, I’ll go to him for sure.”

  4. Mark W says:

    Freezing rain here in San Antonio and all the trees are covered in a layer of ice, including the tree in my front yard that is hanging very low with the additional weight.

    On the upside, I don’t have to go into the office for a training class, it will be virtual.

  5. Nick Flandrey says:

    Next time I need something, I’ll go to him for sure.”

    – there is always  that consideration, but within limits, better to be thought helpful than a scary loner, or suspiciously standoffish.   Stazi is coming.   There needs to be a balance between exposure and being well regarded.   I’m sure people will get it wrong, but I am more and more convinced that you need to be well embedded into a community structure.   

    n

  6. ITGuy1998 says:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-11698175/King-Hill-revived-Hulu-original-cast-creators-Mike-Judge-Greg-Daniels.html

    Hope for the best and expect the worst? It’s hard to recapture the magic, but I hope they do.

  7. Greg Norton says:

    Power has been out in my neighborhood since 7:30. Oncor reports it as isolated to 2000 customers so it isn’t a rolling blackout.

    No restoration time given however.

  8. Greg Norton says:

    Hope for the best and expect the worst? It’s hard to recapture the magic, but I hope they do.
     

    “Silicon Valley“ was sharp at times, but the new “Beavis and Butthead” material is mostly weak. We’ll see.

    Toby Huss has to return. If it enrages Asians that is because Khan is dead on, particularly with regard to Thais in Texas in my experience.

    My in-laws think like Khan. They’ve never called me Hillbilly, but their preferred term for Aftican Americans is “colored”.

  9. MrAtoz says:

    A study of studies;

    Randomized controlled trials: masks do nothing

    FauXi lied, people died.

  10. Ans says:

    Yesterday’s question from Steve deserves an answer, and one that shouldn’t be deleted simply because it doesn’t fit the narrative. 
     

    Cumulative inflation over the past 20 years was 59%. 
     

    The return on the S&P 500 over the past 20 years was 300%.
     

    Even accounting for inflation, investing in America yielded considerable returns over that period. 
     

    Greg’s math was based on an unrealistic assumption that it costs 2% to invest in an index fund tracking the S&P. It does not. The expense ratio on such as fund is 0.03%
     

    Facts don’t care about your feelings. 

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  11. drwilliams says:

    DOJ is searching another of FJB’s estates this morning. Wonders if the plan is to search them all?

  12. SteveF says:

    Consumer Price Inflation might be 59% for the past 20 years, using numbers from federal agencies. I think it’s actually much higher, but it’s irrelevant.

    Inflation of the money supply is several hundred percent over the same time. I think it was over a hundred percent just since early 2020. (Can’t spare the attention to look into it right now because I’m supposed to be paying attention to a meeting, heh.)

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  13. Greg Norton says:

    Greg’s math was based on an unrealistic assumption that it costs 2% to invest in an index fund tracking the S&P. It does not. The expense ratio on such as fund is 0.03%
     

    Go back and read what I wrote. 
     

    Ever. 

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  14. drwilliams says:

    “All of these were scientific mistakes at the time, not in hindsight”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/its-time-scientific-community-admit-we-were-wrong-about-covid-it-cost-lives

    A very charitable view and accurate for some, perhaps, but not most of the policy makers. What we have is misrepresentation, fraud, conspiracy of several flavors, violation of laws, violation of constitutional rights, and violation of oaths of office. At minimum. The loss of life to U.S. citizens exceeds all but one of our nations wars, and is closing fast on that one. There is no “do over”, no “whoopsie”, no “mea culpa” possible. There is just retribution, including prosecution, prison, fines, impeachment, loss of pension, loss of professional licenses, and loss of qualified immunity.

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  15. Greg Norton says:

    “All of these were scientific mistakes at the time, not in hindsight”
     

    Yeah, science. Trump tho.

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  16. MrAtoz says:

    Activate The Hammers of Bob!

  17. Nick Flandrey says:

    F’ing rabbit holes.    

    Got a progress email from D1’s teacher.  Social Studies/Language arts.   It said an assignment had been graded, and the titles caught my attention.   

    Thatcher – Last Stand Against Socialism

    JFK – Inaugural Address

    MLK – I Have a Dream

    JFK – We Choose to Go to the Moon

    So I asked the kid what it was about.    They have been “studying” speech, particularly oration and poetry.   By “studying” I mean applying a methodology that does everything BUT actually read or listen to the material.   They analyze, pre-judge, deconstruct, fold spindle and mutilate according to a “rubric”.    The  method seems to disassemble the whole, celebrate each part, and in doing so, destroy the meaning and impact of the whole.   

    I asked what she thought of the speeches.   They are arguably some of the best english language oratory of the last 50 years after all, and certainly had a huge impact on society and culture.   

    She didn’t read them.   They were “supplemental”.   The class never even looked at them.   Instead, they analyzed a poem, part of a collection of “odes” called “Ode to La Tortilla.”

    That set off my BS detectors.  

    And the rabbit hole opens.  

    Google the “ode”.    Find that it’s used as part of a whole teaching system.  Google the system.   Find that it’s from an organization called Success for All.   Read the teacher’s manual.    Read the “who we are.”  It’s part of a school wide system for teaching literacy that incorporates Common Core, and SEL.  It’s particularly aimed at poor students and students from cultures that don’t succeed in school.   From their promo materials, “Not  only has SFA been proven time and again to help with student reading ability and math performance, it also addresses non-academic concerns, improving behavior,  attendance and parental involvement. “

    Why might I be concerned that our school seems to have given over control of “language arts ” to an outside organization?   From their own website “Q. Is SFA just a reading program? … A. No. SFA is a whole-school reform strategy that engages students and transforms instruction, learning and school culture.”   

    I don’t recall ever voting or being asked whether we should spend nearly $200K per school to “transform” those things.

    Google some more.

    Dept of Edu. What Works Clearinghouse   found this-

     “Summary=
    The WWC reviewed 112 studies on Success for All®. One of
    these studies meets WWC evidence standards; six studies meet
    WWC evidence standards with reservations; the remaining 105
    studies do not meet either WWC evidence standards or eligibility
    screens. Based on the seven studies, the WWC found positive
    effects in the alphabetics domain, potentially positive effects in
    the general reading achievement domain, and mixed effects in
    the comprehension domain.

    –So there isn’t even clear well documented evidence that the system works.

    There are 2 promo pdfs for schools in Texas, and they are more than 10 years old. 

    And to top it off, I can’t find a simple answer to the question “is SFA approved for use in Texas”?

    I need to do stuff today, not explore rabbit holes.

    n

  18. Greg Norton says:

    You calculated returns based on an assumed broker’s fee of 2% of assets under management
     

    Nope. 

    300% gain over 20 years is 7.18% annually, no fees.

    e^(ln(4)/20)
     

    I have three Vanguard Admiral funds and another at T. Rowe. I understand the fees involved with index funds.

    I don’t have a 2 percenter managing my money.

    Again. Ever.

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  19. Nick Flandrey says:

    Banned troll is BANNED.   No matter what his current comments are about, he has been banned for past behavior.

    I am leaving today’s comments in place, up to now but that is it.

    n

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  20. Nick Flandrey says:

    For a contrarian view, from someone who gets paid to try and influence and develop corporate cultures.

    Two things have been dominating headlines. Predictions that we might be on the cusp of a big recession and tech companies laying people off in droves. But those two facts have less to do with one another than most people think.

    Recently, Salesforce laid off 10,000 employees. This mirrors similar layoffs at Amazon, Twitter, Google, Microsoft, and across the tech sector.

    The go-to explanation has been that because of the signs of an upcoming recession, these companies are cutting costs in preparation. But many of these companies are logging record profits, and waves of layoffs in the tech sector started way before indicators of a recession. 

    There’s something else going on: a shift in how these tech companies do business.

    We all know what businesses want: to lower costs and increase revenue. That’s how they remain businesses. And somewhere along the line, these tech companies realized they could maintain similar levels of revenue with far fewer workers.

    It’s a numbers game, which is hard for employees to swallow especially after firms have touted the idea of being a family for years. An egregious lie? Perhaps. Or maybe the firms really did want their employees to feel like family and simply miscalculated. Regardless, the result in the public square is the same: an appealing image exposed as an illusion. 

    Are they right to do this? It depends on the company, and there are strong arguments on both sides. One thing is certain: all companies considering this course of action should proceed with caution. They’re playing with something that doesn’t immediately show up on the balance sheet, but that makes or breaks businesses in the long run: culture. 

    https://mailchi.mp/gapingvoid/big-tech-proceed-with-caution 

    n

  21. Nick Flandrey says:

    I am now smelling the “something is very hot” smell in my office, so I may be down for a while…

    Shutting down my PC…

    n

  22. Ray Thompson says:

    I am now smelling the “something is very hot” smell in my office, so I may be down for a while…

    I get that same comment when my wife enters my office.

  23. Greg Norton says:

    For a contrarian view, from someone who gets paid to try and influence and develop corporate cultures.

    Ironic that reading the article requires accessing a Mailchimp site.

    How much corporate culture and institutional knowledge did Intuit destroy shoving Quicken out the door into the hands of private equity when management decided that they wanted to be a vendor for The Cloud?

  24. Greg Norton says:

    For real this time.

    https://www.tampabay.com/sports/bucs/2023/02/01/bucs-quarterback-tom-brady-retires-good-this-time/

    Retiring cuts the Yucs a huge break on the salary cap problems and lets a rebuilding process begin next year.

    The problems leftover from the Jameis Winston era still haven’t been resovled in Tampa.

    And Lovie took Jimbo’s word that it would work so their fingerprints are on that mess too.

  25. Lynn says:

    “Texas ice storm: 140k without power, with worst still to come”

        https://www.chron.com/weather/article/texas-ice-storm-power-outages-17756710.php?IPID=Chron-HP-Latest-News

    “Central Texas is experiencing mass power outages Wednesday morning.”

    That is 140,000 customers without power just in the Austin area this morning.  No telling how many others.  I wonder if Paul has power ?

  26. Lynn says:

    ERCOT is doing a great job today.  Demand is at 62,000 MW, peaked at 63,000 MW this morning.  Nuclear at 5,000 MW, natural gas and oil is at 42,000 MW, coal is at 12,000 MW, solar and wind turbines are at 3,000 MW.

        https://www.ercot.com/gridmktinfo/dashboards

    Are you freaking kidding me ?  The 38,000 installed MW of solar and wind turbines are only producing 3,000 MW ?  We are in dire need of power today.  People are dying out there !

  27. Greg Norton says:

    That is 140,000 customers without power just in the Austin area this morning.  No telling how many others.  I wonder if Paul has power ?

    No one trims their trees in Austin. Plus Austin Energy is inept.

    We are still without power, but the problem is most likely tree related since the outage is down to 512 homes from 2000 this morning.

  28. MrAtoz says:

    “Texas ice storm: 140k without power, with worst still to come”

    Ugh. The Heat Pump compressor fan started making noises this am. Sounds like it might have ice on it causing an imbalance. It’s been raining for a couple of hours and I can’t see any ice on the blades, so I sent a service request to the home warranty. The selected repair co. just called. The earliest they can come is Monday. A tech may swing buy Sunday pm to diagnose it. Based on the big freeze in ’21, the heat should keep working even if the outside unit stops. The selected company only gets three stars on reviews, so we will see.

    ADDED: Had the Fall checkup in late October. No problems noted.

  29. mediumwave says:

    It’s a numbers game, which is hard for employees to swallow especially after firms have touted the idea of being a family for years. An egregious lie? Perhaps. Or maybe the firms really did want their employees to feel like family and simply miscalculated. Regardless, the result in the public square is the same: an appealing image exposed as an illusion. 

    Who’s better positioned to screw you over than your “family?”

    (And everyone here thought SteveF was the cynical one! 😀 )

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  30. drwilliams says:

    If you are in an area that gets ice in the winter, albeit infrequently, part of your preping should include a bucket of sharp (angular) sand a nd a tightly sealed container of ice melt: sidium chloride down to 20F, calccium chloride for lower temps. 

    I keep a ziploc freezer bag of CaCl2 in a 2-lb 

  31. MrAtoz says:

    Mmm. Just had a fried egg and cheese sandwich. With a side order of Hammered Troll.

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  32. paul says:
     I wonder if Paul has power ?

    Yep.  Not even a blink.  Yet, anyway.  It’s 28f with light  mist.

    It’s been raining for a couple of hours and I can’t see any ice on the blades

    Maybe pour some warm water on the blades?

    NWS says 39f tomorrow. That will be nice. I’m not a fan of landing on my butt while walking the dog.

  33. Lynn says:

    “The Best John Scalzi Books” by Dan Livingston

        https://best-sci-fi-books.com/the-best-john-scalzi-books/

    I have read seven of the books on the list:

    10. The Consuming Fire

    9. The Android’s Dream

    8. The Agent To The Stars (the best book on the list in my opinion)

    7. The Ghost Brigades

    5. The Collapsing Empire

    4. Lock In

    1. Old Man’s War

    I have not read these but they are in my SBR (strategic book reserve):

    6. Fuzzy Nation

    3. Redshirts

    2. The Kaiju Preservation Society

    I would add one more book to the list, “The God Engines”.  The first paragraph is startling and very controversial.

        https://www.amazon.com/God-Engines-John-Scalzi/dp/1596062991?tag=ttgnet-20/

  34. Greg Norton says:

    Oncor indicates over 99,000 customers without power right now. 512 homes in our immediate outage, and 2300 homes just to our south.

    My wife remarked that, fair or not, Abbott would have been done if this had occurred at the same time last year.

    https://stormcenter.oncor.com/

  35. MrAtoz says:

    2. The Kaiju Preservation Society

    D4 picked this one for our reading challenge. I liked it a lot.

  36. SteveF says:

    And everyone here thought SteveF was the cynical one!

    There’s room for more than one.

  37. lpdbw says:

    (And everyone here thought SteveF was the cynical one!  )

    There’s a combination of cynicism and loquaciousness.   He’s outspoken and cynical; others of us choose to keep (most) of our cynicism under a bushel.  Lest we give the appearance of fatalism or defeat.

  38. dcp says:

    I liked Redshirts.

    I did not like Fuzzy Nation.  It is a re-telling of H. Beam Piper’s Little Fuzzy, and it left me very angry at Scalzi’s version of Jack Holloway.

    For a sequel to Piper’s Little Fuzzy trilogy, I highly recommend William Tuning’s Fuzzy Bones.  It is a nice fit in that universe, not a re-boot.

  39. Lynn says:

    2. The Kaiju Preservation Society

    D4 picked this one for our reading challenge. I liked it a lot.

    Do all of your five daughters read science fiction ?

    What is the reading challenge ?

  40. Greg Norton says:

    The Oncor outage count keeps climbing.

    Texas invented “swimming naked” as Warren Buffett puts it.

    This time around, the cell tower nearest to our house actually has the backup power it was supposed to have two years ago but didn’t. I can work, but my laptop battery is nearly dead.

  41. paul says:
    I can work, but my laptop battery is nearly dead.

    Do you have gas?  So you can at least run the oven and maybe fake logs in the fireplace?

    Drip the faucets, too.  Tho if you haven’t it might be too late.

  42. Tony Russo says:

    I’ve been curious about something. I recently upgraded to a new cell phone as I was having issues with calls dropping and difficulty using the phone as a hot spot when traveling (when I’m visiting my dad). The new phone doesn’t seem much better. I’m beginning to think the problem is the turning off of the 3G networks and poor coverage of the 4G and 5G networks. I’m wondering if anyone else has noticed this as well.

  43. Ray Thompson says:

    I’m wondering if anyone else has noticed this as well.

    Coverage also depends on the provider and the frequencies being used. Some places have good signal strength, other places not so much. Higher frequencies suffer significant loss through walls. Around my area there are dead zones with no coverage, a couple of these spots are less than a mile from the house.

  44. Alan says:

    >> My rating: 6 out of 5 stars (this is one of my thirty top ten books)

    “…one of my thirty top ten…”

    That’s what they call ‘new math,’ right? 

  45. Ray Thompson says:

    I wonder who was the acting coach for the speakers at Tyre’s funeral. Lot of drama for the benefit of the cameras.

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  46. Greg Norton says:

    Pooh-pooh the funds, then admit you invest in them. Do they use the term “own goal” in Texas?

    I never said I wasn‘t in the market, and the returns are garbage.

    I’ve held those funds for a long time, easily 30 years in one case. The best one is up 120% over the cost basis in that time frame.

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  47. Mark W says:

    turning off of the 3G networks and poor coverage of the 4G and 5G networks

    5G tends to use higher frequencies (but not always) and therefore has less usable coverage.

    There are also technical details like how much bandwidth to the tower, and how much bandwidth per phone, etc.

  48. Greg Norton says:

    Drip the faucets, too.  Tho if you haven’t it might be too late.

    Turned off the water at the curb and drained the system until we know when the power will be back.

  49. Lynn says:

    >> My rating: 6 out of 5 stars (this is one of my thirty top ten books)

    “…one of my thirty top ten…”

    That’s what they call ‘new math,’ right? 

    Yup.  If you want to see the list, just say so.  I have posted it here before, maybe twice.

  50. Alan says:

    >> The actual charging documents for the bad Baldwin make for interesting reading.   As someone who worked in the industry, and someone who reviewed the relevant safety protocols after the accident, I take issue with several of the statements made by the DA in the documents.    Parts of it read like a blind man describing the elephant…  they’ve been told how stuff is supposed to work on a set, but they keep running it thru their own filters and mindset.   It’s in the language they use, and the unconscious biases expressed in their statements.

    A few thoughts on this ‘mess’…

    1. How can the defense attorney put AB on the stand given any contradictory statements he’s made in various media appearances? Ms. DA (I presume she’ll try this case herself): “So Mr. Baldwin, you said you checked the gun in one TV interview and then you said you didn’t check the gun in another TV interview. Which time were telling the truth and which time were you lying?”
    2. Will the jury charge be so complicated that the jury in effect ‘nullifies’ what they’ve heard and makes a decision based on their own interpretation of the NM laws?
    3. Given point 2, does AB’s fate come down to which side hires the better jury consultant?
  51. Greg Norton says:

    3100 outages.

    120,000 homes without electricity.

    Crews en route from neighboring states only now.

    Oncor is going to get roasted alive in the Legislature this Spring.

    Champagne corks are probably popping in Taylor (ERCOT HQ) tonight.

  52. Alan says:

    >> Billions of cubic feet of natural gas, tens of millions of gallons of crude, and maybe a hundred thousand tons of coal.  Just since midnight !

    @lynn, how much physicl storage is requied for that amount of each fuel type? How much of the total reserves is used?

  53. Greg Norton says:
    • Given point 2, does AB’s fate come down to which side hires the better jury consultant?

    Trial Science. Yes.

    I had a prof in undergrad for a Sociology course who co-invented Trial Science. In one of the early cases, the defendant, a wealthy doctor, was so guilty that he eventuall committed suicide after being acquitted of gross boating negligence in an accident which killed four kids.

    Doctor Phil gets the press, but he helped Oprah.

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  54. Greg Norton says:

    120,000 homes without electricity.

    Add 160,000 Austin Energy customers.

    Take a few hundred thousand homes off the grid, and ERCOT’s looking pretty good in terms of reserves tonight.

  55. Greg Norton says:

    Hope for the best and expect the worst? It’s hard to recapture the magic, but I hope they do.
     

    “Silicon Valley“ was sharp at times, but the new “Beavis and Butthead” material is mostly weak. We’ll see.

    Toby Huss has to return. If it enrages Asians that is because Khan is dead on, particularly with regard to Thais in Texas in my experience.

    Swapping emails about the “King of the Hill” revival, a friend reminded me tonight that Toby Huss worked for the “Silicon Valley” competition, “Halt and Catch Fire”. That may be more of a problem than the political incorrectness of his casting as an Asian.

    I didn’t watch “Halt and Catch Fire” beyond one episode. That was more drama than comedy.

  56. Lynn says:

    >> Billions of cubic feet of natural gas, tens of millions of gallons of crude, and maybe a hundred thousand tons of coal.  Just since midnight !

    @lynn, how much physicl storage is requied for that amount of each fuel type? How much of the total reserves is used?

    In short, I have no idea.  But I can take a SWAG.

    Much of the natural gas comes from wells in the Permian area of Texas (Midland / Odessa).  There are several large salt domes along the Gulf Coast that each store from 1 BCF (billion ft3) to 10+ BCF of natural gas, compressed to as much as 5,000 psia.  We also store natural gas as LNG (liquefied natural gas) stored 3600 ft3 of vapor to one ft3 of LNG but have no idea how much.

    Many of the older steam boilers and gas turbines store fuel oil from bunker C (fuel oil #6) to diesel.  They try to keep a week’s worth of fuel on site.  Very expensive.  Some plants like the 1,300 MW Handley plant in Fort Worth can only store two days of diesel (100,000 barrels = 4.2 million gallons) so they are getting low now.  We would have a hundred diesel trucks a day running into Handley when I worked in operations at TXU.  But the ice slows those trucks down immensely.

    When I worked at TXU, we could make 22,000 MW from 125 power plants.  That 22,000 MW was derated to 21,000 MW when we got our natural gas curtailed and had to move to our stored diesel and fuel oil #6 since our steam boilers were designed for natural gas, fuel oil required a larger steam boiler due to the slower heat release.  We kept 3.2 million barrels (134 million gallons) of fuel oil and diesel in storage at our plants.  We wanted to keep 6 million barrels in storage but the Texas PUC would not let us charge the customers for all that fuel oil.  Two months after I left TXU, they were burning 330,000 barrels of fuel oil and diesel per day for a week in December 1989.   They almost ran out and were rolling diesel trucks from the five state region into our service area.

    When I was at TXU, we tried to keep three days of coal at our 12 coal power plants.  All of the coal power plants were minemouth plants back then.  That meant that the coal mines were two miles to fifteen miles away from the power plant.  We had hundreds of Caterpillar dual diesel engine trucks running from the mines to the power plants that could carry 100 tons of coal each.  I never saw the coal pile at any of the plants higher than three feet.  The coal trucks would just drive up to the coal pile, open their hoppers, and drive across it.   I was doing some testing for our VP Operations of TXU at the Martin Lake plant in Tyler once and got the coal pile down to one foot deep.  The senior operator came over to me at 8pm or 9 pm and desperately asked if they could back off the #3 unit from 880 MW to 700 MW so the coal pile could recover.  I was only running some hand calcs to verify my data then and I said sure, I had no idea.  The problem is that the peak efficiency of the steam boilers and turbines is at 85% load, I was running #3 at 109% load which dropped the efficiency about 6 or 7 %.

    Anyway, the coal units in Texas are now running either 100% Wyoming coal or a mix of 50/50 Wyoming coal / Texas coal (Mr. Buffet’s BNSF is making him rich) so I don’t know how much they keep on hand now.  A week would be nice but we never had that much back in the 1980s.  If we had it, we burned it.

  57. nick flandrey says:

    Cleaned up my PC and no issues with fan noise  now.  It wasn’t super dirty, but there was some dust.

    Took the opportunity to install a 4TB second drive.  I’ll start moving ripped DVDs and CDs to it later tonight.  It will be nice to get back to ripping the stacks of discs.  It will be nice to have room on the primary drive too.

    I’d forgotten about the 2TB limit and had to do some googling.  Easy enough when I knew what to do.  The main issue was that the drive was in an external caddy and had been “initialized” as MBR and 2TB.   I shucked it and installed it directly, then had to mess around until I went looking for the answer.   Got it correctly configured now.

    Did some cleaning up in my office while I was at it.   Pretty much had to to get to the PC…

    Still doing it in fact.

    n

  58. drwilliams says:

    I tried to post earlier from my phone and got this far before editing locked and I got interrupted:

    If you are in an area that gets ice in the winter, albeit infrequently, part of your preping should include a bucket of sharp (angular) sand a nd a tightly sealed container of ice melt: sidium chloride down to 20F, calccium chloride for lower temps. 

    I keep a ziploc freezer bag of CaCl2 in a 2-lb 

    Here’s the whole thing, with corrections and additions:

    If you are in an area that gets ice in the winter, albeit infrequently, part of your prepping should include a bucket of sharp (angular) sand* and a tightly sealed container of ice melt: sodium chloride down to 20F, calcium chloride for lower temps (down to at least zero F). 

    I keep a ziploc freezer bag of CaCl2 in a 2-lb empty plastic peanut jar, and keep that in the bucket with sand.  To use remove the ziploc, put ¼ to 1 cup of CaCl2 in the jar, scoop it to ¾ full with sand, put the lid on, and shake to mix. Broadcast the mixture on the ice. If it’s raining, broadcast straight sand until you start to ice up, then broadcast the mix, otherwise the salt will wash off.

    Calcium chloride is much more expensive than ordinary salt, but is a more effective ice melt at any temperature and keeps working below 20F when sodium chloride loses effectiveness. It comes in flake or small round pellets. The latter tend to roll when broadcast and sand helps keep them in place.

    Comments:

    1. Chloride products promote metal corrosion, concrete spalling, and are hard on plants. Wash them off as soon as possible after use.
    2. Magnesium chloride is less harmful to pets and plants and can be found in garden centers in the ice belt.
    3.  CaCl2 pellets are the purest form at about 95%. Flake is about 75-80% and may be cheaper. If available check to see what the other ingredients are–it’s probably MgCl2, which is perfectly fine for ice melt (not so much as a cement accelerator).
    4. There are other ice melters out there. One is a liquid product called “Playsafe”. It works best as a pretreatment applied before the snow or ice, so it can prevent bonding to the surface and allow easier cleanup. For melting existing ice of any thickness it is marginal. Tractor Supply doesn’t stock it but it can be ordered. Chewy will ship it to you.
    5. If you don’t have sharp sand oil dry will work in a pinch. It breaks down when you step on it and tracks into the house, but it’s world’s better than taking a fall on the ice. Conventional cat litter has additives but will work–the granules are on the small side. I haven’t tried the new lightweight stuff. 

    *Darker materials absorb solar energy and promote melting. One way to take advantage of this is to use Black Diamond sand blasting media in place of sand. Also available at Tractor supply. Mix it with a little calcium chloride and any sun will sink it right into the ice where it will keep working.

    Other solar absorbers:

    1. Ground up charcoal briquets. 
    2. Wood ashes. 
    3. Dirt or compost. 

    Great solar absorbers, not so good if you track it onto your carpets. 

  59. drwilliams says:

    When I started selling on eBay the fees were below 5%. 

    Now they run 12-15% in most categories.

    They are jacking them up again in February by 0.35%.

  60. Lynn says:

    Here is the 2,250 MW Martin Lake Steam Electric Station outside Tyler, Texas.  

         https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/43/Martin_Lake_Power_Plant_Tatum_Texas_2019.jpg

    From 

       https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_Lake_Power_Plant

    Those are the triplets that I worked on for three or four months back in 1985 and 1986.  Each of the girls had 10 bowl mills for grinding the coal (actually lignite) into face powder for blowing into the steam boilers.  Each of the girls actually had two steam boilers.   We could push (and I did !) each of the girls up to 880 MW even though they were only designed for 810 MW.  Each would use 60 to 65 MW on their auxiliaries, the bowl mill grinders, the inlet fans (1,000 hp two each), the exhaust fans (800 hp two each), the SO2 scrubbers (our Texas coal had 6% H2S in it), the 200,000 gpm water pumps (two each unit), etc, etc, etc.

    My job was to figure out why they were throwing steam turbines blades on the low pressure steam turbines (they each had four of those).  I figured it out and our Senior VP called the President of Westinghouse and screamed at him for a half hour.  We were paying Westinghouse almost $100 million/year to support us and they were not doing it.  We got the support we needed and Circle-Bar-W re-engineered all 16 of the low pressure steam turbine blade roots from double lug to triple lug at their cost.  And yes, we finally paid for the spare steam turbine and generator that we had “borrowed” from Westinghouse ($200 million).

    We had spare everything for the triplets. Because, they were actually quadruplets and #4 was never built. But, all of the parts for #4 were delivered and put into a nitrogen tent the size of a football field. But when we went to inventory the parts in 1988 (I managed to get out of that sucky job since I was a senior engineer by then), only 25% of the parts were there. We knew that the steam turbines and generator were being used as the backup for #1 to #3. We did not know that the pumps, fans, motors, boiler steam tubes (stainless steel #410 IIRC) had all been snatched over the years to keep the triplets running at over 90% capacity factor. Not availability factor, capacity factor.

  61. Greg Norton says:

    Took the opportunity to install a 4TB second drive.  I’ll start moving ripped DVDs and CDs to it later tonight.  It will be nice to get back to ripping the stacks of discs.  It will be nice to have room on the primary drive too.

    I managed to get a rip of my BluRay of “Top Gun Maverick” using MakeMKV earlier this week.  Add that to your ripping toolkit if it isn’t there already. Free while the program is in ‘beta’, but it has been in beta for a decade. Just refresh the registration periodically.

    No bootlegging happening at my house. Paid legal copy. I wanted stills from the mission briefing to compare with the output of my OpenGL terrain generator code from grad school a dozen years ago. Yeah, that’s probably my code, but I can’t do anything about it. 

    Geesh, Jennifer Connelly’s “Top Gun” character’s Porsche is a beautiful car.

    3
    1
  62. Lynn says:

    Feelgood video of the day:

    https://twitchy.com/brettt-3136/2023/02/01/enjoy-this-footage-of-a-car-not-stopping-for-protesters-blocking-the-road/

    Follow that with this video of a bunch of idiots trying to stop an 18 wheeler full of tasty animals:

        https://twitchy.com/brettt-3136/2023/01/30/vegan-activists-proclaim-theyre-going-to-stop-an-18-wheeler-driven-by-a-psychopath/

    Those two idiot guys almost got turned into hamburger.

  63. Greg Norton says:

    They seem a lot better than letting yourself be brainwashed by doom porn and “investing” in tubs and tubs of ketchup, mustard, and mayonnaise that are just going to be donated or trashed because the apocalypse didn’t happen.

    That’s not me, but facts don’t seem to matter.

    Do you wonder why that guy’s name is on the door of the office down the hall and not yours?

    28
    1
  64. drwilliams says:

    Follow that with this video of a bunch of idiots trying to stop an 18 wheeler full of tasty animals:

        https://twitchy.com/brettt-3136/2023/01/30/vegan-activists-proclaim-theyre-going-to-stop-an-18-wheeler-driven-by-a-psychopath/

    Hope the driver got on the phone to the sheriff about the attempted hijacking and they arrested the perps. Loaded 18-wheeler has more kinetic energy even at low speed than a magazine of 45 JHP’s.  Who’s the effing lunatic? Arrest and get the judge to order a mandatory psych eval with free cleansing regime.

  65. drwilliams says:

    Biden Family Values:

    https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2023/02/biden_family_values_hunter_biden_refused_to_pay_employee_unless_she_showered_naked_for_him.html

    Hunter’s lawyers made some moves today, the kind we used to call “smooth move, Ex-Lax”, from which the which the NY Post correctly identified 

    Hunter Biden’s lawyers admitted late Wednesday that the infamous laptop the now-52-year-old abandoned at a Delaware computer repair shop in the throes of his crack cocaine addiction does indeed belong to him.

    https://nypost.com/2023/02/01/hunter-biden-admits-infamous-laptop-is-his-in-plea-for-probe/

    So with the proof in hand, the DOJ should be opening that investigation any day now?

  66. Nick Flandrey says:

    If you use EzriTCare eye drops— stop.

    Outbreak of Extensively Drug-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa Associated with Artificial Tears

    The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is issuing this Health Alert Network (HAN) Health Advisory about infections with an extensively drug-resistant strain of Verona Integron-mediated Metallo-β-lactamase (VIM) and Guiana-Extended Spectrum-β-Lactamase (GES)-producing carbapenem-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa (VIM-GES-CRPA) in 12 states. Most patients reported using artificial tears. Patients reported more than 10 different brands of artificial tears, and some patients used multiple brands. The majority of patients who used artificial tears reported using EzriCare Artificial Tears, a preservative-free, over-the-counter product packaged in multidose bottles. CDC laboratory testing identified the presence of the outbreak strain in opened EzriCare bottles with different lot numbers collected from two states. Patients and healthcare providers should immediately discontinue using EzriCare artificial tears pending additional guidance from CDC and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

  67. Greg Norton says:

    Oncor’s outages seem to have peaked in the last hour.

    3188 outages.

    122,400 homes without power.

    Power is back at my house as of a few minutes ago.

  68. drwilliams says:

    @Nick

    I’d recommend that anyone using any eye drop read that report. 

    And if they’re using any eye drop associated with any problems stop doing so until they get more data. 

  69. Alan says:

    >> I have the opposite view. I run as much as I possibly can through my Costco credit card.

    I concur, especially as a (small) recoup of the effects of inflation.

    Unfortunately, those without rewards cards help subsidize those that do. 

  70. Lynn says:

    >> I have the opposite view. I run as much as I possibly can through my Costco credit card.

    I concur, especially as a (small) recoup of the effects of inflation.

    Unfortunately, those without rewards cards help subsidize those that do. 

    Don’t forget small businessmen like me who pay 3 to 4.5% when somebody drops a credit card on me.  But, it is a good way for my foreign customers to pay me.

  71. Greg Norton says:

    Unfortunately, those without rewards cards help subsidize those that do. 

    Data mining subsidizes the rewards cards. Even the act of signing up for the card is signficant.

  72. Greg Norton says:

    So with the proof in hand, the DOJ should be opening that investigation any day now?

    Hunter surrendered all expectations of privacy the moment he dropped the laptop off for repair. The request for the criminal probe wouldn’t go anywhere under a sane Attorney General.

  73. Lynn says:

    So with the proof in hand, the DOJ should be opening that investigation any day now?

    Hunter surrendered all expectations of privacy the moment he dropped the laptop off for repair. The request for the criminal probe wouldn’t go anywhere under a sane Attorney General.

    Are you calling Merrick Garland sane ?  Anything but.  The man has delusions of grandeur beyond just about any person that I have seen.

  74. Nick Flandrey says:

    But I thought the press told us the laptop story was disinformation..  I’m so confused…… would they lie to us????

    Oh well, another foolish delusion shattered.   

    Crack and hookers.   Squicky things with relatives… sexual deviance.   What’s next, bribery, influence peddling, money laundering?  Before you know it, it will  be acting as an unregistered agent of a foreign government.

    Oh.

    n

  75. Alan says:

    >> I wonder who was the acting coach for the speakers at Tyre’s funeral. Lot of drama for the benefit of the cameras.

    Gotta have the appropriate TV presence when you are lottery winners. 

  76. Greg Norton says:

    “I’m literally a liar. I was trying to impress a person on a date. By lying.”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5n7RRKgDog

    Tinder dates gone bad. Next on ‘Maury’.

    Doh. Maury retired.

  77. Greg Norton says:

    Gotta have the appropriate TV presence when you are lottery winners. 

    Don’t forget Benny Crump.

    https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/watch-live-tyre-nichols-laid-to-rest-in-funeral-ceremony-with-ben-crump-rev-al-sharpton

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