Thur. Jan. 30, 2020 – so much going on

Cold and wet. [51F and 87%RH actualy, “cool, and somewhat drier”]

Yesterday I took a load to my local auction. I’ve got many more loads to take, and a variety of other stuff to sell in other venues too. It’s what I do, but I’ve not been doing enough of it for a while. Much longer than I thought. It’s easy to forget, and the net result is more stuff piling up, waiting to sell.

I’ve been stacking preps in with the ‘inventory’ too, which doesn’t help.

My name is Nick and I have a problem….

So, redouble my efforts. Be more ruthless and do now what I could do later/might do later/probably won’t do later.

That’s the plan anyway.

==============================================

I admit I haven’t been paying any attention to the impeachment nonsense. Since I consider the whole thing to be a questionably legal if not wholly illegal attention seeking circus, I don’t want to give it any attention at all. Nothing I’ve seen when I’ve paid a few minutes attention has changed my mind. It is a distraction from the more pressing needs of the day, and diverts resources and attention from those needs. If it keeps certain vile persons occupied and keeps them from screwing me, then there is a small plus. Locking those same persons up for their many crimes would also accomplish that, and would be my preferred method, but I’m not king and the rest of the country seems to have lost its mind and will.

==============================================

I HAVE been paying attention to the WuFlu/KungFlu and it’s advancing up the curve right on schedule. That should really concern people. It now has PROVEN person to person transmission in a social setting. With CDC finally going to China, and cases outside Chinese control, we should get a more accurate idea about lethality. Then we’ll know just how F’d we are. (Side note, stopped in a different Habitat ReStore yesterday and an asian woman had bought ever particle mask in the store. She had a cart full.)

Anyone else wondering about what the Chicoms have planned for the quarantined people? ANYONE see anything about humanitarian relief convoys delivering food and water? Anyone see any distribution points? So do they expect everyone to just die, either from the bug or from starvation? The Japs who got out said that water and food were running out… if they don’t want mass badness, the trucks should be rolling about now. Or is that just not the way china deals with humanitarian crisis?

Anyway, I don’t see any reason not to increase your efforts to decouple from the world around you. My goal is to be able to hunker down (although I hate the phrase and the people who overused it) for 45 to 90 days without having to leave the house. Let this thing burn itself out if it gets a foot hold. We should start to see disruptions caused by China Inc shutting down real soon. When that happens, a whole bunch of people are going to be both caught off guard, and get really scared and angry. Fun times. I’m trying to not be there.

nick

39 thoughts on “Thur. Jan. 30, 2020 – so much going on”

  1. Side note, stopped in a different Habitat ReStore yesterday and an asian woman had bought ever particle mask in the store. She had a cart full.

    No ice cream for you, Redneck. That’s how it works in a nutshell.

    It isn’t about the need but about the denial. They seriously get off on that stuff.

    One set of my in-laws have a garage full of 27″ Sharp TVs, apparently, Fry’s closeouts from the last year tube sets were commonly available. 2005? Around Portland, those are like gold to the retro gamer crowd, but the in-laws don’t sell any, enjoying the fact that they have such a desirable item in a large quantity which may never see the light of day.

    The family says the TVs are for their no-tell motel, but no one going there is interested in TV. If they are, the clientelle will want a cheap flatscreen with HDMI for the kids’ games like everywhere else.

    The family legend is that the uncle even rented a truck to haul the TVs from Wilsonville Fry’s (no sales tax in addition to denying Portland gamers) back to his house in Seattle.

  2. That is some messed up sh!t.

    The TV stash in the garage is a minor gag overall as is one cousin’s rebadged early 90s Ranger->Mazda (B3200?) rusting on the side of his house unused/uninsured just because a collector offered him $5000 for it … 20 years ago.

    The in-laws *really* got off on my unemployment and our inability to buy a house while the cousin who lived nearby received concierge medical care gratis from my spouse.

    I gave my wife little choice about moving once I had my “it” moment in Vantucky.

  3. Patients Under Investigation (PUI) in the United States*†‡

    As of 1/29/2020
    People under Investigation (PUI) in the United States
    Positive 5
    Negative 68
    Pending 92
    Total 165

    *Cumulative since January 21, 2020.
    † Numbers closed out at 7 p.m. the night before reporting.
    ‡ Excludes those with contact to a known case.
    §Includes specimens received and awaiting testing, as well as specimens in route to CDC.

    Number of states with PUI: 36

    –no info on which states, or which people were cleared.

    n

  4. MrsAtoz just told me some cruise ship is being held off the West Coast due it might be a Chicomm infected death ship. Any news?

  5. Paging an engineer…

    That superconductor experiment needs practical implementation: a more efficient motor or generator, maglev trains, super bananas. Not sure, my engineering-fu is kinda rusty.

  6. Yeah, the quantum locking where the SC moves around *underneath* the track was awesome. It’s a great time to be alive, now get going on life extension so we can enjoy this technology.

  7. I’m getting spam from “SilverSingles”, I wonder if they know something about me… or think they do, or if it’s just spam.

    n

  8. “Update (1000ET): Italians are breathing a sigh of relief. Initial tests suggest there is no coronavirus aboard the quarantined cruise ship. A 54-year-old woman from Macau had a fever and respiratory symptoms that were suspiciously close to the virus’s symptoms. She has since been kept in isolation on board in the port of Civitavecchia, near Rome. Initial tests have cleared her, but the final results aren’t expected until later in the day. ”

  9. Oh shit. This is my first ‘red line’.


    First Case Of Human-To-Human Coronavirus Infection Confirmed In US: Live Updates

    by Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/30/2020 – 12:41
    Summary:

    First human-to-human transmission confirmed in US
    7,921 confirmed cases worldwide, 170 fatalities
    South Korea confirms first human-to-human transmission
    China reported largest one-day jump in fatalities on Wednesday with
    Hong Kong warns of surgical mask shortage
    Russia closes border
    6,000 quarantined aboard Italian cruise ship
    Thailand leads with most cases outside China (14)
    Chinese national hospitalized and quarantined in York
    Virus arrives in India, Philippines
    Air France suspends flights to/from mainland
    IMF now monitoring crisis as economic fears grow

    * * *

    Update (12:40ET): Rumors that surfaced in recent days have been confirmed: the CDC said Thursday afternoon they have confirmed human-to-human transmission of the coronavirus in Chicago – meaning the US has now joined Germany, Japan, South Korea and Thailand in having confirmed human-to-human transmission outside China.

    One of the five prior cases confirmed by the CDC apparently managed to pass the virus to her husband. The new patient is the spouse of the woman being treated in Chicago. It appears there are now six cases confirmed in the US.”

    –next red lines, live case in TX, then case without a direct link to China visitor, ie. someone gets it second hand.

    This probably means it’s out there in the population in the US.

    n

  10. –next red lines, live case in TX, then case without a direct link to China visitor, ie. someone gets it second hand.

    Mine would be a live case in the Portland metro, on the WA State side of the river. Vantucky.

    If you’ve ever been to PDX (Portland’s airport) late on a Thursday afternoon and seen the line of cars leaving long term parking and heading north across the bridge, you understand the potential scale of the problem. Lots of people working “travel required” jobs and living income tax free while shopping without sales tax in Oregon.

    Unfortunately, the health care infrastructure on the Vantucky side of the river sucks. I’ve written before about the Measles pandemic started there, including a hot zone in the very office where my wife worked for almost three years.


  11. …now get going on life extension so we can enjoy this technology.

    As Jerry used to say, “I’m dancing as fast as I can.” Life extension is real, but so little is known that for those of us nearing the end it probably won’t come soon enough. OTOH, a friend says there are some experiments that show great enough promise that some of us might take a chance and try them within five years.

    As for how long we can live, that is the wrong question. The goal is to live a healthy and fit life all the way to the end. I know some who play tennis beyond age 80, and could mop the court with me if I still played. I also heard a story of someone in his 90s (not sure of actual age) who had scaled back to mixed doubles. One day, his wife saw the ball go past to her to him. When she didn’t see it returned, she looked over her shoulder to find him collapsed, dead. Maybe that is an extreme, but at least he didn’t linger into decrepitude.

  12. From @Ray yesterday:

    He went on Medicare at that point and had to pay a huge back payment fee

    Yes, Medicare will go back and get all the premiums that should have been paid since the age at which a person would have gone on part B. Retirement age or when group insurance at work expired.

    The VA should have covered the cost at the hospital and there should have been no reason to go on Medicare part B. Also Medicare part A covers hospital at 80%, part B covers doctors. What what not covered by Part A should have been picked up by the VA and all of the part B expenses.

    Or am I missing something about the VA? Many of the requirements have changed regarding VA coverage and perhaps I am relating what is currently available, not years in the past.

    Nope, the VA refused to cover anything other than normal drugs. There are a lot of fairy tales about the VA and one is that they will cover ER expenses at a regular hospital. After he was stabilized, the VA wanted us to transport him 45 miles to the south Dallas VA hospital. No freaking way.

    That was six years ago. I hear that the VA has been forced into being better about this now.

  13. I have type 2 diabetes (well-controlled, last test had my level at 6.8, which is just above the high normal value), and take metfornim daily (prescribed) which has helped with controlling the diabetes.

    Metfornim has some additional, off-label benefits:

    New research is suggesting that metformin may hold promise in treating or preventing a whole host of conditions in patients with and without type 2 diabetes. Studies show metformin may be cardioprotective in patients with diabetes and beneficial in the presence of stable congestive heart failure. The agent also may help to increase pregnancy rate in polycystic ovary syndrome, provide breast and prostate cancer benefits, and offer neuroprotection that may reduce dementia and stroke risk (https://www.healio.com/endocrinology/diabetes/news/print/endocrine-today/%7B3d599445-6a21-46c9-b694-7d91409a503f%7D/beyond-diabetes-metformin-may-prove-to-be-a-wonder-drug , Feb 2017).

    Another similar article: https://www.goodrx.com/blog/surprising-benefits-metformin-diabetes-fertility-cancer/

    So, perhaps a step to ‘life extension’ ?

  14. not to put a tin foil hat on, but “they” don’t want life extension for the masses. “they” want strong backs and eaters, not competition. Think about what longevity will do to dynasties, tax rates, inheritance, the work force, etc. Much SciFi has been written on the subject.

    n

  15. I’m loving the homemade masks the Chicomms are making. Very 10 Cloverfield Lane. The people wearing plastic jugs over their heads are hilarious, but I guess they work against splatter.

  16. not to put a tin foil hat on, but “they” don’t want life extension for the masses. “they” want strong backs and eaters, not competition. Think about what longevity will do to dynasties, tax rates, inheritance, the work force, etc. Much SciFi has been written on the subject.

    We will still know a breakthrough has happened when the early 80s Silicon Valley “tres commas” club starts to linger beyond their reasonable shelf lives. If, in the next decade, you don’t see Larry Ellison assume room temperature or at least begin to appear he’s headed in that direction, assume that the elites have something.

    After that, watch Gates and Eric Schmidt. Gates already looks grim, however.


  17. I hear that the VA has been forced into being better about this now.

    Yes, things have changed. VA will pay for my expenses at the the local hospital as the closest VA hospital is 150 miles away. VA needed me to go to a urologist and sent me to my regular urologist. VA paid the bill whatever that was as I paid nothing.

    A lot has changed regarding VA healthcare if a person has a service connected condition. That opens a lot of doors today.

    I can now use the base exchange and commissary on base. But if I use a credit card I have to pay an additional 3% which active duty do not.

    The VA used to issue crappy, low end hearing aids up until about 5 years ago. Now the VA provides top of the line to those with service connected disability. That disability rating opens many doors that regular veterans don’t enjoy.

  18. From @SteveF yesterday:

    All due to goobermint meddling.

    You’d think people would learn, but no. What we need is more laws and regulations to fix the problems caused by previous laws and regulations. Then everything will be perfect!

    You sir, have defined a utopia. If we just try a little harder, we can achieve nirvana.

  19. not to put a tin foil hat on, but “they” don’t want life extension for the masses. “they” want strong backs and eaters, not competition. Think about what longevity will do to dynasties, tax rates, inheritance, the work force, etc. Much SciFi has been written on the subject.

    Yes, in actuality they, the powers that be, would like for most of us to walk into the disintegration booth at age 45. Yes, this is a Star Trek reference.

  20. BTW, according to yesterday’s Fort Bend Herald, NOAA has changed the definition for a 100 year rainfall event from 12.5 inches of rain over 24 hours to 16.5 inches over 24 hours for the entire Houston nine county region. This is very significant as this changes the calculations for rain water retaining ponds and base elevation requirements of buildings. There will be many changes coming from this for future buildings. Even existing retaining ponds may require additional excavation to hold more rain water. And existing levees may be required to be raised in order to meet FEMA requirements.
    https://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hdsc/PF_documents/Atlas14_Volume11.pdf

  21. China’s morning update hit–

    Summary:

    First human-to-human transmission confirmed in US
    9,821 confirmed cases worldwide, 213 fatalities
    South Korea confirms first human-to-human transmission
    China reported largest one-day jump in fatalities on Wednesday with
    Hong Kong warns of surgical mask shortage
    Russia closes border
    6,000 quarantined aboard Italian cruise ship
    Thailand leads with most cases outside China (14)
    Chinese national hospitalized and quarantined in York
    Virus arrives in India, Philippines
    Air France suspends flights to/from mainland
    IMF now monitoring crisis as economic fears grow
    State Department authorizes personnel to evacuate China
    WHO declares global pandemic
    American Airlines pilots union files lawsuit to end travel to China
    First 2 cases confirmed in Italy
    Germany confirms 5th case
    Turkish Airlines suspends China routes

    –and people are selfish–

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/01/chinese-woman-from-wuhan-goes-on-vacation-to-philippines-visits-cebu-manila-dumaguete-then-checks-into-hospital-with-coronavirus/

    –12 million people there.

    n


  22. “CDC officials say they do not believe she infected her husband until she was symptomatic.

    The husband had some pre-existing medical conditions, similar to many infected patients, but health officials would not elaborate on what those conditions were.

    Health officials say that the man was not attending mass gatherings and they are monitoring close contacts.

    ‘This person-to-person spread was between two very close contacts, a wife and husband,’ said Ngozi Ezike, the director of the Illinois Department of Public Health in the media call on Thursday.

    ‘It is not spreading in the wider community.’ “”

    –which is a bit of good news.

    n

  23. “Amazon earnings beat expectations, shares surge”
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-q4-earnings-201121959.html

    “Revenue: $87.4 billion versus $86.17 billion expected”

    “Earnings per share: $6.47 versus $4.11 expected”

    “The stock was up 8% after the announcement, and pushed the company’s market cap over the $1 trillion mark.”

    “Amazon’s report follows what the company called a “record breaking” holiday shopping season. Sales for the quarter were up a whopping 21% compared to Q4 2018.”

    Wow !

    So that is where everyone was instead of Kohls. I was in our Kohls on Christmas Eve day, it was dead, dead, dead. Except for people like me returning Amazon packages at the freaking back of the store.

  24. The husband had some pre-existing medical conditions, similar to many infected patients, but health officials would not elaborate on what those conditions were.

    I read a report the other day that the Snake Flu is more fatal to the old rather than the young. I guess people who have pulmonary issues ?

  25. So that is where everyone was instead of Kohls. I was in our Kohls on Christmas Eve day, it was dead, dead, dead. Except for people like me returning Amazon packages at the freaking back of the store.

    Dillards was dead two days before Christmas when I went in after a gift card for my wife.

    My main gift for her came directly from the manufacturer. I only buy on Amazon if I can’t get it anywhere else or the price is too good to pass up.

    Ironically, the store I saw the most people in a week before Christmas was Barnes & Noble. Amazon, founded as an online book store, does a really cr*ppy job with … books!

    Yeah, Kohl’s slit their own throats cutting the deal with The Devil -er- Bezos. A lot of their stores already look trashed as of late, especially in marginal neighborhoods, but the presence of masses of Amazon returns in the back, usually near housewares, just makes the problem worse.

    The last return I did through an Amazon Locker at the 7-11 near my house got lost. I ususally go through the UPS Store.

  26. Ironically, the store I saw the most people in a week before Christmas was Barnes & Noble. Amazon, founded as an online book store, does a really cr*ppy job with … books!

    It is really tough to get your computer to make you a $4 coffee and a $2 microwaved cookie while you are browsing through books and looking at the endings.

    I buy almost all of my books at Big River nowadays. My B&N, while busy, just does not carry any indie books that I like. And the parking is horrible since they moved our B&N from the strip center to the mall.

    BTW, B&N missed a tremendous business opportunity in my opinion. They were going to put a print shop in each store, keeping one of each book on the shelves. They would sell you the book on the shelves and print a replacement immediately. But they reputedly had trouble with the printing and binding machine. And then the e-books took off (Amazon !).

    Whoa, B&N went private last June ! Who knew ?
    https://qz.com/1638568/barnes-noble-has-been-sold-what-happens-now/
    and
    https://qz.com/1651414/barnes-nobles-new-ceo-wants-the-chain-to-be-more-like-an-indie/

  27. BTW, B&N missed a tremendous business opportunity in my opinion. They were going to put a print shop in each store, keeping one of each book on the shelves. They would sell you the book on the shelves and print a replacement immediately. But they reputedly had trouble with the printing and binding machine. And then the e-books took off (Amazon !).

    POD just can’t match the quality of good printing and binding, even for trade paperbacks. IIRC, new editions of Stroustrup are POD, and the books fall apart if you look at them funny.

    (Even though it was obsolete, I kinda/sorta regret leaving my 3rd editiion of Stroustrup behind in my lab in Vantucky. Nice paperback.)

    I still believe an old school B. Dalton format store would work in malls, but only if Target bought back the brand and ran the stores like they did up until 1986. Trade paperbacks, a few hard cover best sellers, and bargain remainders in a bin near the front.

  28. Whoa, B&N went private last June ! Who knew ?

    About a year ago, most of the full time non-management employees were let go and the chain shopped itself around. Private equity, but, unlike Toys R Us there is only so much debt the stores can absorb.

  29. My favorite bookstore found new owners and a new location.

    https://www.mystgalaxy.com/Grand-Opening-Party-2020

    3555 Rosecrans St, San Diego, CA 92110

    They don’t charge more for signed firsts, and I spent a ton of money there on a ton of books. Going thru my library and weeding out the lefty crap I discovered that most of the lefty crap has exactly no resale value. Very few exceptions, China Meiville being one. I’ve got a couple of signed firsts from him that I’m selling.

    The math on owning books just doesn’t work. $36 for hardback, <$5 including shipping when you sell it on ebay. It's like buying new luxury cars, watches, or clothes. You do it because you have the money and want to, not for any "investment".

    Keeping in mind, I still have 3 digits of linear feet of bookshelf…. and I buy used books regularly at thrift and estate sales. I'm just not buying anything new in hardcopy (unless it's recommended and technical.)

    n

  30. POD just can’t match the quality of good printing and binding, even for trade paperbacks. IIRC, new editions of Stroustrup are POD, and the books fall apart if you look at them funny.

    POD is real hit and miss. Amazon has POD plants at several places. The machines must be very high maintenance compared to the old printing presses. Most of my POD books are high quality but sometimes I get one that is light on the ink. I need to complain next time.

    And the covers feel weird sometimes with all of the ink on them. And others feel just right.

    And the POD books prices are running $12 to $16 on Big River right now. I preferred it when they were $9 to $12 just two years ago.

  31. Are any of the malls going to survive ? Most of them are in bankruptcy or headed there.

    Some will. Some won’t. It depends on the location.

    The Brown Truck Store, while convenient, is not economically viable when energy costs inevitably rise. Two hour delivery isn’t viable now, but, like a lot of the unicorn services, artificially low interest rates paper over the losses. Even Amazon knows what’s coming; I recently talked with their retail infrastructure tech group working out of Austin, a separate operation from Whole Foods.

    (Everybody is looking for an exit from my current group, even the young’n’s working their first job out of college have learned the hard lesson about not pushing back against stupid.)

    For now, sanity can’t compete with speculators willing to endure 80+ PE ratios.

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