Sat. Feb. 29, 2020 – Happy Birthday to any leapers out there

Cool and damp, but clear.

Yesterday stayed clear and sunny all day. Got up to comfortable shirtsleeve temps by late afternoon.

Had my truck break down during my errands yesterday. Glad I have a backup. NOT an expense or uncertainty that I want at this time. But it is what it is.

One thing I noticed today, it’s much more fun to prep for a zombie apocalypse when one isn’t happening around you. The fact that I’ve spent more than $2000 in the last week also tells me I’ve not been keeping up with where I needed to be, or been aggressive enough getting back after the rat incidents. Of course my timeline and the threat are different than my main threat. Still, I’ve had to pay full price for items I should have been able to get for less.

Some of the items are only on my “it’s coming right for us” list and wouldn’t be part of my normal prepping. 20-40 pounds of potatoes springs to mind. We just don’t eat them normally, but my “last trip to the store” list has always had potatoes and onions on it because they are cheap and last a long time. They are easy to cook and versatile. But I wouldn’t stock them in bulk. I’ll buy more if the situation warrants a real “last trip”.

Lots to do today, and sportsball tournament with the little one on top of that. I better get started.

Please see the front page of DailyMail for about 7 relevant articles about presumed community spread in Oregon, and Cali, and other developments. People are waking up to the real risk. Flip the switch in your brain- we’re in a different world and you need to align your thinking with reality. Don’t do anything life altering yet, but get prepped. If you might need it, I’ve already proved to myself that you can’t wait even two days, and one day will have you skinning by… we’re far from the only people thinking the thoughts, and many of them are acting on them.

Keep stacking. There is time left for the most critical items, food, water, defense, comfort, medical support. It’s running out rapidly though.

nick

Fri. Feb. 28, 2020 – and the hits just keep on coming …

Cold and clear today.

Cold yesterday. Clear and sunny but cold. Started at 37F with frost on the car windows. That’s pretty cold no matter where you are (Jenny laughs!)

Kids are home today. Water main broke and gave the ISD a reason to cancel classes. I’ve got a ton of running around to do and it will all go slower with the kids in tow. It is what it is, I guess.

WuFlu keeps on keeping on. China says it’s dying out, but I don’t think anyone believes that. Everywhere else, it is doing great. Cali has a case that looks like community transmission, although possibly a link to the flight crew or quarantine exists. Certainly casual contact if the patient can’t recall anything significant.

Iranians seem to be hit harder than others. Their death rate is pretty high. Italians too. Or at least people living in Italy.

For anyone who hasn’t internalized the numbers, Aesop breaks it down. If the lethality is 3% (which doesn’t SOUND that bad) and most people get it, one kid in every classroom will die. One or more people in most small businesses will die. 2 or more people in your family will die. 2 or more people in your circle of friends will die. 1 in every 33… That sounds a bit more ominous than “3%”. So no, NOT the FLU.

Pray it’s not really gonna spread, because just asserting that doesn’t seem like a winning strategy given the way it’s spreading. Pray that the big brains will come up with a vaccine that works on a virus that even when you have it and survive, you don’t get immunity. Pray that it’s not true that the second time you get it, your heart stops and you just fall down dead.

I’m not really much for praying, but that looks like a pretty good backup plan to me.

nick

Thur. Feb. 27, 2020 – more spreading

Cold, clear, windy.

I spent the afternoon driving around and decided to do some meatspace relationship building, so I ran out of time to get to Costco and my other errands. I KNEW I should get there yesterday. I’m betting there is a run on Lysol after the article showing it killing virus. Timing. Priorities. I wanted Lysol, bleach, pool shock, a basket full of OTC meds and 3 months of dog food. I didn’t get any of that and probably won’t today either.

My wife said last night that desire for masks has hit her facebook groups. I previously warned her not to publish anything about me getting masks, and she didn’t. She gets why now. I also hear that Trump doesn’t like price gouging. One thing I know for sure, price controls limit supply. If they insist I sell lower than I want, I’ll just keep them. And if they try to seize them, I’ll piss on them first, burn them, or give them to the homeless.

As the virus continues to spread, I am trying to pretend that my life is normal… so I’m on my way to Austin for a pickup. There is a definite dichotomy between getting prepped as if I expect the zombie apocalypse and going to pick up stuff to resell and use in a normal life. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

I’m pretty sure the worst is coming. We’ve got a case in Cali with no known link to travel. That ain’t good.

So, I’m getting the kids and wife out the door, then on my way to Austin, and hopefully home in time to hit Costco before getting the kids.

Wish me luck.

n

Wed. Feb. 26, 2020 – spreading, spreading, spreading….

Cool and damp. [48F and very windy/gusty]

It turned into a beautiful day yesterday. Clear blue sky, hot sun, nice windy breeze…. So I was working in the driveway trying to find some ebay stuff, and getting ready for my hamfest in a couple of weekends. Found some stuff I’d misplaced, found some stuff ruined by water and moisture.

There were lots of N95 masks in one of the local surplus auctions last night. They went for more than the same mask sells for on ebay. Cheap still compared to most N95s at the moment though.

The wuflu continues to spread. Now it is confirmed to be spreading out of secondary areas to third areas by person to person contact. It also may be in Brazil. CDC says it’s just a matter of ‘when’ it gets into communities here. Japan has shifted gears into a “save you what can” mode. They will be focused on treatment and controlling spread rather than preventing outbreaks. Japan and CDC both agree that most people who get it will be isolated at home and cared for at home. Are YOU prepared to do that? For a month? Without work or going out? Better think about it.

I’ve got stuff to do and shifting priorities. Number one now is top up preps. Number two is get a bunch of stuff sold while people are still buying. Number three is get stuff sold and out of the way via hamfest. Number four is get ready for the two trips my wife has us doing in the next couple of months. I’m already pretty sure I don’t want to be at Disney for spring break in March. But part of me feels like we need to do stuff while we still can, but there are risks. We’ll see how the risk picture evolves.

I don’t like pandemic prepping. Too much is determined completely by chance and the timeline is very opaque. Give me a clean hurricane any day.

It’s past time to take this seriously folks. The chances of it ending without major effects are gone. There will be major effects.

— in other news, a “german citizen” ran a vehicle into a crowd on purpose and injured a bunch of people including kids. NO FURTHER INFO about the perp. Just “german citizen”. It’s already out of the news cycle. Wonder how LONG he’s been a citizen?

Keep stacking folks. Stack it high.

nick

Tues. Feb. 25, 2020 – Maybe Austin?

Cool and somewhat damp. [50F and 99%RH]

Yesterday started rainy but did dry out later in the morning. Man I was tired. I should not stay up late reading.

I hope by now, everyone is prepping for WuFlu related disruptions. I don’t think this is going anywhere but ‘worse’. I’m thinking it will pop up here someplace no one is looking, like Minneapolis in the Somali population. Then the race is on to see who can go full retard the fastest.

Economic disruption is headed here no matter what happens with the virus. It’s a gift to certain folks to be able to crash and have something external to blame. Why waste the chance? Even without anything like that, the problems with supply chain aren’t going anywhere, and that will start having real effects soon.

There are very worrisome rumors that it’s already in Florida and being kept under wraps. Not good as that is my next family trip destination. It’s my bi-annual mouse house pilgrimage, and I am not interested in being in spring break crowds with this nonsense going on. Nor am I interested in being quarantined afterwards.

I better get started on the things I can control.

Keep stacking.

n

Mon. Feb. 24, 2020 – another week ahead- more WuFlu news

Cool and damp. [65F and pouring rain at 6am]

Yesterday stayed coolish and damp all day with overcast skies. There was a bit of light misty drizzle around 9pm, but it never really rained.

In WuFlu news, China got sloppy with their lies and now everyone is catching on to the fact they’ve been underreporting infections and deaths. If you assume the virus is exponential in china, like it is everywhere else, the numbers are truly horrifying.

South Korea is F’d. Italy went from none to ~175 in a couple of days. Deaths are starting to show up too. To make it all even worse, there is evidence some guy developed it 27 days after contact. If true, none of the quarantine, for thousands world wide, can be trusted. Potentially infectious people have been returned to their communities.

Essentially overnight Italy closed schools, churches, and canceled public events. 10 or 12 cities are under movement control. Are you ready for something like that?

The next thing to be in short supply seems to be hospital grade disinfectants and cleaners. I spot checked some that are in my local auction, and at least one is completely sold out at the manufacturer’s site. Ebay still has it and prices don’t seem extortionate yet. I’ll be a bidder locally and hopefully a winner.

Besides masks, think about shoe covers or booties. You don’t want to be tracking stuff all over your house. Think about setting up an anteroom or entryway to leave your outerwear and shoes. If the longer incubation is valid, it’s already out in our communities and we just haven’t seen the cases yet.

Think about stuff you need that only comes from China and start getting enough of that. I ordered the cameras I have been thinking about and they shipped today from stock. That won’t be true for long as imported goods start selling out.

If your employment or business depends on large gatherings of people, you might want to look hard at a situation where that doesn’t happen. If I was still doing public events and corporate training conferences, and trade shows for a living I’d be looking for something else to do, BEFORE everyone else is looking too.

This is looking less and less like a nothing burger, and more and more like a world changer.

And on a completely unrelated note, another whistleblower committed suicide. Hmmmmm.

Keep stacking.

n

Sun. Feb. 23, 2020 – maybe vehicle maintenance today

Cool and damp.

Yesterday actually got to be very nice by the end of the day. Shirtsleeves weather.

Roofer came by and we’re going to pursue the new roof. Insurance call on Monday. Big deductible, but if we don’t do it now, if we were to sell in the future, we’d have to do it all on our dime. Preps, sometimes the best prep is money in the bank.

I’ve got a fan speed resister pack to put into my Expy, and a windshield washer fluid pump to change out in the Ranger. Both are just annoying issues, but are also simple fixes, so only lack of time has prevented me doing it.

The rest of the day will be filled with all the normal things.

I will be buying some additions that I wouldn’t normally buy. Feminine hygiene stocks are low here, as are some of the kid’s things like toothpaste. I looked a bit farther afield, and I’m going to order two more cams for my system. They are JIT from China thru a US distributor and repackager. Chances are good that the supply chain isn’t going to be there for long and existing stocks will run out. I’ve been thinking about it for a couple of months, and decided to pull the trigger. If you want something that is normally made in China, you should look really hard at getting it now.

The virus has now showed up in the strangest places. “Worse, infected travelers from Iran already have been discovered in Lebanon and Canada. “ And it’s killing folks. Coverage is getting weird too. Try this line on for size–

“A cluster of cases isn’t inherently worrying – in fact, it’s expected as an infection that’s easy to spread is carried around the world by travelers. “

–nothing to see here folks, everything is proceeding as expected….

Remember the big differences between this and ebola- the chinese can afford air travel, and this one seems to kill fewer people, at least in some places.

Take the time we have and take your preps to the next level. I know I’m sounding like a broken record on this but just look at the numbers…

Keep stacking,

n

Sat. Feb. 22, 2020 – and more twos in the date!

Cold and damp, but should remain clear. [41F in my driveway]

Temps dropped even a bit further last night, and it was chilly all day. I’m kinda glad I didn’t get my seeds in the dirt.

I did manage to pick up a couple of things I needed for much less than retail, but it doesn’t help me with my immediate need to get rid of stuff.

As I write this we now have 35 cases of WuFlu in the US, almost all imported by our own .gov. The usual sources are full of new cases, and dramatic increases in numbers. That’s how it works though tiny, tiny, little, little, then suddenly big jumps. I haven’t had a chance to listen to CDC’s teleconference yet, but it promises to be “interesting’. Keep stacking, and revisit your planning. Like japan and italy, .gov could wake up one morning and cancel Christmas. Now your kids are home during the day, so you need to be too…

Busy day today, GScout activity for the females, then a basketball game, then meet with a roofer, then Cookie Booth, and I will do one last auction pickup. I’d like to get some of the outdoor stuff done, and get some more garage stuff done too. Lots of food to put away and organize…

Get busy, time may be very short.

n

Fri. Feb. 21, 2020 – finally Friday, yeah right, too soon

Colder and wet.

Yesterday the rain held off but the temps dropped. I started in a rain shell but ended in a middle weight Carhart jacket..

I have another busy day today. Some auction stuff, the a call with my financial advisors, a call to a roofer about the hail damage from last year, and then more auction stuff.

The wind was really gusting last night. Tarps on the “inventory” in my driveway were all flapping around all night, setting off the motion detector lights. Cams recorded a lot of flapping…

Wuflu is taking off around the world. A couple of months I think, before it’ll be everywhere in large numbers, but things will start to get weird before that. We’ll also have a chance to see it die out, if that’s gonna happen. More and more people are starting to realize the supply chain issues. I expect some stuff will start to be in short supply immediately as savvier folks start buying for the long run.

Read the article Peter wrote in the link from yesterday and consider what else might affect your personal needs. This is the time to get ahead on your meds. Also the OTC stuff you might want, especially if you have to play “Dr. Mom” to anyone. Snivel gear too. Toothbrushes, beauty supplies, hygiene products, etc. Keep in mind you might want to or have to supply some other people outside your family too. Can you really say no when Mom asks if you know where to get a box of masks? or your kid’s school friends ask about AB soap?

There are some lines in the sand with prepping that really feel different when crossed. Buying fish meds, burying a cache, buying obstetrics textbooks for your library… those things mean you are considering something beyond the next hurricane or flood. Those are the sort of things that raise an eyebrow. Think about where you are in relation to those at the moment, and consider if it’s different from last month or last year. Where do you think you’ll be in a month if things continue as they are?

Food for thought should be accompanied by food for eating.

Keep stacking.

n

Thur. Feb. 20, 2020 – lotta “2”s in that date…

Cooler, still damp.

We got a little bit of misty rain early yesterday, but then it was just a bright overcast for the rest of the day.

I did my volunteer science class in the morning, ham meetup in the afternoon, and went and picked up auction lots that were mostly PPEs and cleaners. Traffic was insanely bad getting back across town.

Today I have a pretty similar schedule without the nice lunch.

Corvid 19 continues to spread. China has brought in industrial cremation furnaces “for livestock.” That ain’t good, no matter how you look at it.

The cruise ship evacuees continue to get sick here, anyone want to make book on them getting sick wherever they’ve dispersed to now that over 500 have been release in Japan?

Keep stacking.

N