Sat. June 15, 2019 – as the world turns

80F and 93%RH this morning.  Clear and hot yesterday but a great night.  FEMA has us in the edge of a storm system, while openweathermap.org has us partly cloudy to clear later.  At this point, I’m believing openweathermap.  They have been incredibly accurate for my area.  Thanks for the tip.

The march to war continues in the middle east.

Disease pestilence and famine are following their natural course throughout the world.

What cannot continue WON’T.

We are in the bending and stretching part of the destruction.  When the strain becomes more than the material can withstand, it will fail dramatically, and for most people it will look like it happened ‘all at once.’  And once changed, a deformed material cannot just be put back to its previous state.  It must be recreated, or heated and reshaped- reforged.

Bob wanted us to prepare for that change.  Sarah Hoyt wants us to prepare for the re-forging and re-building stage without talking much about surviving the failure.  I find myself alternating between the different focuses, thinking that prepping for Sarah’s view is extreme, while Bob’s view is my new normal.

Putting food in storage is Bob, putting medical text books in storage is Sarah. The idea of having to save the knowledge seems both hubris and paranoia, even to me.  BUT.  It’s cheap insurance.

Since you can’t get to rebuilding if you don’t make it through the collapse, I’m putting most of my effort into Bob’s plan.

I am occasionally working Sarah’s though too; the most important part of which is my kids.  We have to transmit our values and culture to our kids (and societies kids) to come through on the other side.

I’ll argue that Europe didn’t do this successfully with the disaster of the two world wars.  Their children went progressive and that leads directly to where we are today.

Go beyond getting through whatever is coming and start working on supporting the rebuilding.

 

nick

33 thoughts on “Sat. June 15, 2019 – as the world turns”

  1. Seriously, think about WWI and WWII as disasters.

    Millions dead. Millions displaced. Cities and infrastructure utterly destroyed. Pestilence and famine.

    The countries and polities that entered those conflicts are not the ones who exited. Nor did the societies that began those wars survive them.

    Instead, an completely new world order emerged, with the US and Russia rising to the top. Two backward, rural countries were completely transformed as a result of those decades. Not even 50 years and the world order was turned upside down. Add in the rapid technological advances of a couple of decades of war research, and the unbelievable changes brought when all that excess capacity was applied to new things, and the world was transformed.

    History and common sense say it will happen again.
    n

  2. I’m not sure this article will have the effect the editors think it will.

    Note the battlefield preparation going on too–

    “Among those, 150 officers were found to be members of ‘violent anti-government’ Facebook groups like the Oath Keepers and Three Percenters. At least 120 of those profiles discovered actively posted.”

    And they posted meme! That said nasty things about islam (true things from what I see)! Someone doesn’t think telling kids they’re transgender is a good idea, The Horror!

    Down near the bottom you see irony writ large, and the prog compulsion to project their own selves —

    “warned far-right groups had infiltrated US police departments.

    Sociologist, Peter Simi, told Reveal: ‘Leaders have long been advocating for infiltration of society — graduate from high school, go to college, join the military, become a police officer, become a school teacher — get inside the system.

    ‘That’s why it’s so difficult to get a handle on the scope of this, because the purpose for those who are infiltrating these systems is to be careful not to tip their hands. So we’re always dealing with the tip of the iceberg.'”

    that’s especially rich considering the left’s long march thru the institutions… cuz the schools are just chock a block with hidden hard right infiltrators….

    ” The two allegedly used the ‘dindus’ slur in reference to African Americans online.” —OMG, the next thing you know, rain will make people wet.

    The MOST ironic thing is that with all their shocked face posturing, the editors have spread the memes and ideas MUCH farther than the closed facebook groups.

    n

  3. Hate to break it to you ladies, but to some “15-18 year old males” you are nothing but sexual objects. In most of the world, your public behaviour would get you attacked, beaten, or jailed, or even killed. In fact in much of the world you are legally nothing more than sex objects for men. Why on earth would you voice even the tiniest amount of support for those places and the ideology that drives them?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7143785/We-just-sexual-objects-men-Lesbian-couple-speak-out.html

    and if you are an oppressed minority, why wouldn’t you be as outspoken an advocate for self defense as you are for homosexuality?

    n

    (and as a meta note, see the transition from “homosexual” to “gay” to “gay and lesbian” to “LBGTABCXYZ….” language in the common discourse that moves from specific to abstract, just like casinos use chips instead of cash in order to separate the ideas from the actions.)

  4. WTF were they thinking?

    “Spy fears as Chinese-owned company builds circuit boards for top-secret F-35 warplane”

    Try to find someone in a Western country who can supply complex multi layer circuit boards without breaking the bank. Not happening. Even when I worked for Jabil in the early 90s, we bought Chinese boards.

    Thank Steve Jobs and the NeXT assembly line in Fremont in the 80s. All SMT. Anyone doing through-hole two layer boards was done at that point. IIRC, NeXT got their boards from Japan.

  5. “Okay, our $80 (after shipping) t-shirt falls apart in the wash and it doesn’t dry clean well, but we need to do something for our investors, delay at least until the IPO or we get bought out by someone bigger. Any ideas?”

    https://www.fastcompany.com/90359188/the-next-big-thing-in-fashion-not-washing-your-clothes

    FYI — If you haven’t exercised the Lands End guarantee in a while, they changed their terms recently. Long term, the invoice forms don’t even state that a cash refund is possible under any circumstances, but, for now, they will give an original payment refund within 90 days with receipt if you contact their customer service.

  6. Since you can’t get to rebuilding if you don’t make it through the collapse, I’m putting most of my effort into Bob’s plan.

    In retrospect, our late host’s seeming loss of interest in anything except prepping probably should have been interpreted as a sign of a problem. The drift away from astronomy due to sudden vertigo was really surprising/alarming.

    Again, don’t put off talking to a doctor if you think something is wrong. No one here strikes me as the hypochondriac/faker type my wife sees regularly through her office.

    And if you don’t like the doctor’s opinion, find another doctor. They aren’t gods. Decent GPs haven’t shrugged … yet.

  7. “Equality Act Could Criminalize Christianity, Judaism and Islam” by Dr. Harold Pease
    https://libertyunderfire.org/2019/06/equality-act-could-criminalize-christianity-judaism-and-islam/

    “Outside a declaration of war there is no act of Congress that would affect negatively more Americans than the House of Representative’s recently passed Equality Act now slated for the U.S. Senate, then the President for his signature. Billed to ban discrimination against “sexual orientation” and “gender identity” it, instead, enshrines it into the 1964 Civil Rights Act potentially protecting pedophilia and pederasty under “sexual orientation.””

    “The 13-paged ambiguous Equality Act “would give homosexuality, transgenderism, and other perversions of human sexuality and gender the same protections as race or sex in employment, housing, public accommodations, and more.” It specifically prohibits religious freedom as a defense. “The legislation applies to churches, religious schools, religious hospitals, religious employers, gathering places, sports, all government entities, and more. Christian adoption agencies will be shut down, too, if they refuse to place children with homosexuals or individuals confused about whether they are men or women. That has already happened in states with similar legislation.””

    My preacher has told us that he is fairly sure that he will be imprisoned for refusing to officiate a homosexual wedding at some point in the future. This prospective law obviously violates several Constitutional amendments but I am not sure that a significant minority of SCOTUS cares. Hopefully the Senate will not pass the law but they seem to be unreliable also.

    Hat tip to Fort Bend Herald of June 14, 2019.

  8. “Spy fears as Chinese-owned company builds circuit boards for top-secret F-35 warplane

    F-35 stealth warplanes will play a central role in Britain’s air and naval forces
    Defence experts have raised concerns over the security of the new warplane
    The circuit boards will control the engines, lighting, fuel and navigation systems”

    At least the boards are being made in England. Should the USA / England end up on the different side of a war than China then that company and their facilities will be nationalized. Are the USA made F-35s using the same boards ? The problem comes when the Chinese want to move the board facility to China, that should not be allowed.

    Of course, the Brits and USA will probably be stockpiling those boards. The DOD does not believe in “Just in Time” and they should not ever change to that dangerous practice.

  9. The chinese owners own the firm, the servers, the lan, and you can bet they have copies of the board schematics, no matter what ITAR agreement was signed. They aren’t “absentee landlords” after all.

    n

  10. The chinese owners own the firm, the servers, the lan, and you can bet they have copies of the board schematics, no matter what ITAR agreement was signed. They aren’t “absentee landlords” after all.

    Hey, the Chinese have all of that stuff anyway. The number of Chinese engineers arrested and charged with espionage is growing daily. Here is an April 23, 2019 news release. They are stealing all of our secrets.
    https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/former-ge-engineer-and-chinese-businessman-charged-economic-espionage-and-theft-ge-s-trade

  11. Wow, I’ve competed against Dogberts before. They will say anything to get the sale.

    Plus hookers and steaks.

    Cough … Citrix … cough.

  12. Wow, I’ve competed against Dogberts before. They will say anything to get the sale.

    Plus hookers and steaks.

    We’ve had customers call and tell us that they heard that we were out of business. When pressed, the rumor came from our largest competitor, a public company with $300 million/year in sales. I have often thought about suing them but the cost is just so high.

    Their CEO and CFO went to jail a number of years ago for cooking the books. I got to testify at their FTC monopoly trial a couple of decades ago (they copped a plea).

  13. @lynn

    We’ve had customers call and tell us that they heard that we were out of business.

    I assume that you have an active (and responsive for all screen sizes) web site with updated content, and some marketing and SEO to go with it? Maybe some outreach to existing and potential customers? ( I suspect you do, but doing googles/bings/ducks on your industry terms to see how visible you are is always useful.)

    Unless you have all the business you can take.


  14. It specifically prohibits religious freedom as a defense. “The legislation applies to churches, religious schools, religious hospitals, religious employers, gathering places, sports, all government entities, and more.

    Fortunately, this will not apply to camel drivers in the Mideast.

  15. I assume that you have an active (and responsive for all screen sizes) web site with updated content, and some marketing and SEO to go with it? Maybe some outreach to existing and potential customers? ( I suspect you do, but doing googles/bings/ducks on your industry terms to see how visible you are is always useful.)

    Sure. Kinda. Its a work in progress like everything else in life.
    https://www.winsim.com/

    Unless you have all the business you can take.

    Never ! Although, we have signed over a million dollars of new contracts so far this year.

  16. @lynn …

    Your web site looks a bit ‘old school’, but it seems to be working well, with the contract $$$ you have gotten so far this year.

    But you might think about getting a more ‘responsive’ design. It doesn’t look well on smaller screens – lots of horizontal scrolling on smaller screens.

    Just thinking out loud as I continue the first draft of the next book. I write some, then switch over to the browser to wander (waste time) around then switch back to write some more.

    Probably could be more efficient in my writing time. But can’t bring myself to go all “Monk’s Cell”, as Dr. Pournelle used to say.

  17. @rick, my understanding is that different writers have different methods. If yours is working, then it’s fine.

    n

  18. Probably could be more efficient in my writing time. But can’t bring myself to go all “Monk’s Cell”, as Dr. Pournelle used to say.

    I need to get my writing time above 4 hours per day. Software writing time that is. Right now I am debugging the 20,000 lines of fortran code that I have added to the existing 800,000 lines of fortran code over the last two years. The other 20,000 lines of fortran code I added is debugged and working well, at least until the encounter with the first customer. The C++ user interface code has been finished for almost six months.

    I have people emailing me daily asking for the new release of the software as we have already sent out the new passwords (I change the 1024 bit password algorithm for each major release). It is not ready as about a quarter of our 600 benchmarks fail to run to completion (crash !) or do not work correctly.

    I will not do a deathmarch ever again. In that direction lies madness.

    One of my guys is holding 8,000 lines of new fortran code out until this version is released. Then we will throw it in and the benchmarks will run perfectly and we will release a point release. Yeah right, in a perfect world. His work overlaps my new code and is also in the guts of the calculation engine. There will be crashes.

  19. Re the F-35: The Swiss military is trying again to purchase new fighter planes. They currently own some ancient F-5 and some reasonably current F-18 fighters. They want to replace the F-5s with the F-35, or maybe the Eurofighter.

    The last time they tried this, a public referendum sent them back to the locker room. They’re now trying again, and trying to be pro-active by pre-planning the referendum. Fact is: it’s a stupid as it was the last time. Why does Switzerland need high-performance fighters? They ony really make sense against other military aircraft. Which country are we planning on being at war with? Since the Swiss armed forces aren’t allowed outside our borders, it would have to be France, Germany, Austria or Italy, and they would need to attack us first. My imagination fails me.

    What legitimately does come up occasionally are civil aircraft that need escorting and occasionally disciplining. In the worst case, one might theoretically have to shoot down a civilian aircraft. So what we actually need is something simple, like the KAI T-50 or the Boeing T-X. Not coincidentally, those aircraft cost a fraction as much as a full-up modern fighter.

    But no, the military wants “the best”. Ahem. The F-35 has already been around for 10 years, and the last official pronouncement said that it still had readiness rates under 50%. The scuttlebutt is that readiness is actually more like 10% to 20%. Who in their right mind would spend $200 million for a hanger queen? More specifically, who thinks that a country of 8 million people can afford something like that?

    I’m working on an article for the main conservative newspaper, and claiming my chops as an ex-USAF officer who worked in fighter acquisition. I hope to hit the idiots right in the middle of their constituency.

    – – – – –

    Re Lynn’s website: I suppose it depends how he gets customers. His software is a big-ticket item: do people find him over Google? Maybe, but maybe not. If they do, it might be worth an investment.

    The problem is: there are so many web agencies that charge a fortune to produce crap. I’m biased, I know, but I would favor a series of student projects. First, get a decent requirements analysis – what you have may not be what you need. Then, get students to do prototypes. Make sure they don’t use anything too exotic, so that the result is maintainable. Take the prototype you like the most, and hire the students to finish it.

    I’m sure some local college would be ecstatic to have a series of projects like that. Total cost would probably be in the low 5-digits, and you can break it off, if it looks like the projects aren’t going in a good direction.

  20. I will not do a deathmarch ever again. In that direction lies madness.

    I submitted 117 hours for Jun 1 – 15. Kinda light.

    It turns out the Music Ed major maintenance lead dropped the ball in North Texas (Soooprise!) so I’ll have to cover that as well, but I told that management chain I was busy until Tuesday.

    For all the faults of CGI, their recruiting at [Music Ed major’s big Texas name school] did not include the Education building, and washing out of a CS program like she did would have raised all kinds of red flags in HR.

  21. We’ve had customers call and tell us that they heard that we were out of business. When pressed, the rumor came from our largest competitor, a public company with $300 million/year in sales. I have often thought about suing them but the cost is just so high.

    RSA salespeople tried to have me fired from Death Star Telephone when I wouldn”t upgrade from the crypto library we used and they were obligated to support under a $1 million annual contract. A crypto library which, it turns out, was just OpenSSL wrapped in the legacy RSA API.

    The salesperson called my manager and scared him sh*tless that I was being irresponsible by not upgrading. Since I had a poor relationship with my direct report, RSA almost did succeed in getting me fired.

    My manager was Mike Myers’s Fat Bastard character’s less personable cousin. Think same accent/BMI/rage. Last I heard he was canned from Salesforce.com and a second try at IBM. Kharma caught up.

  22. I’m sure some local college would be ecstatic to have a series of projects like that. Total cost would probably be in the low 5-digits, and you can break it off, if it looks like the projects aren’t going in a good direction.

    I’d be wary of that route based on what I saw going on in professsors’ “for pay” projects in my last CS department. Maybe a small private school, but avoid the Texas public universities.

  23. Re the F-35: The Swiss military is trying again to purchase new fighter planes. They currently own some ancient F-5 and some reasonably current F-18 fighters. They want to replace the F-5s with the F-35, or maybe the Eurofighter.

    The Swiss government would be better served with the F-18s. The F-18 is a great plane, a known performer, and a relatively inexpensive purchase compared to the F-35 variants.

  24. I’m sure some local college would be ecstatic to have a series of projects like that. Total cost would probably be in the low 5-digits, and you can break it off, if it looks like the projects aren’t going in a good direction.

    I don’t even have time to write the user requirements much less supervise the effort. Managing a small business takes 50% of my time on a good day. The fact that I am still the major code generator is still amazing and worrisome to me.

    With a potential of 12,000 users worldwide, our website is not our major contact generator. Our website exists to make the techies able to look up our information. And there is 1.2 GB of information there. What we need now is a bunch of youtube videos on how to build a flowsheet to complement the 300+ working flowsheet simulations that we ship with our software.
    https://www.winsim.com/media/samples.pdf

    BTW, our major contact generator is word of mouth from existing customers. We work very hard keeping customers happy and meeting their needs. If our software sold for $200/year then our website would be much more important. But we are not in the low dollar business.

  25. RSA salespeople tried to have me fired from Death Star Telephone when I wouldn”t upgrade from the crypto library we used and they were obligated to support under a $1 million annual contract. A crypto library which, it turns out, was just OpenSSL wrapped in the legacy RSA API.

    The RSA salesperson was trying to get a 2% commission on a “new” $5,000,000 sale. That was fairly bold for them to make that claim. And did your boss have the $5 million budget for a new crypto library ?

    BTW, we did not pay for our crypto library. We used the open source public key / private key cryptography library. Works great ! There is a lot of incredibly good open source code out there. I know because I have written quite a bit of it.

  26. The Swiss government would be better served with the F-18s. The F-18 is a great plane, a known performer, and a relatively inexpensive purchase compared to the F-35 variants.

    This is very sensible. Why do the Swiss need a “stealth” plane? Perhaps for the elite to escape any apocalypse.

  27. They’d be better off with a secret tunnel. Can’t fit much stolen gold on a fighter plane….

    n

  28. “I’d be wary of that route based on what I saw going on in professsors’ “for pay” projects in my last CS department. Maybe a small private school, but avoid the Texas public universities.”

    Yeah, it depends on the prof. Dunno how it works in the US, exactly. Here, I don’t take any pay on things like this – I’m already paid to supervise the students. The school charges a fees, plus – once you know the students – hiring them privately to go from prototype to finished product.

    But, yes, there are crappy schools and crappy profs in good schools. That’s always a risk, but the risk is a lot cheaper than web agencies – where you pay 10x more, but still have a lot of really bad companies out there.

    – – – – –

    “The Swiss government would be better served with the F-18s. The F-18 is a great plane, a known performer, and a relatively inexpensive purchase compared to the F-35 variants.”

    It’s certainly a better choice than the F-35, but even the F-18 is total overkill for the missions here. They get to escort heads of state. Rarely, some idiot in a private plane does something bizarre, and they escort him to the nearest airport. For the worst-case scenario, someone might go all kamikaze, and they’d need to shoot them down. The thing is: those are all civilian planes. A nice little jet trainer with a couple of hard-points, and we’re done.

    “Why do the Swiss need a “stealth” plane? Perhaps for the elite to escape any apocalypse.”

    They don’t, of course. It’s the military brass wanting fancy toys. They would just be so embarrassed, not to be able to keep up with the neighbors. But jeezum, we’re only 8 million people, so spending a something like $10 billion on a wing of F-35s is just stupid. And it would be that much by the time you have all the ground support, simulators, spare parts, etc, etc…

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