Fri. Feb. 4, 2022 – winter.

By on February 4th, 2022 in Uncategorized, WuFlu

Cold.  Icy.  For a while at least.   School is canceled so the kids are home.  Limits my mobility.  Of course, the ice does too, and if places are closed, I can’t go anyway.

 

Did some pickups.  Ladders, scrapers for ceiling popcorn, and electrical stuff for the eventual redo of the dock.  Vanity top for the bathroom…  fire extinguishers.   Went grocery shopping, see comments yesterday for the Joe Bidn Abundance Report.

Since the kids are home, I’ll be sleeping in a bit, then we’ll play it by ear.   I’ve got a couple of possible pickups, dock stuff, and some other household stuff, but with the Cold-magedon who knows?

I know that people were not inclined to be caught off guard this time.  And normal shortages seem to be making preppers out of everyone.  Well, not actually everyone, lot of folks though.

Don’t be late to the party.  Stack it up.

n

 

84 Comments and discussion on "Fri. Feb. 4, 2022 – winter."

  1. Ray Thompson says:

    At the halftime of the girls basketball game at the local high school there was a group of challenged individuals. They are part of an organization called Challenge Sports which teaches the people to play sports. Last night they played basketball. Lots of rules ignored and rightly so. The object was so the people could enjoy the game and have fun.

    And they did, played with competitiveness, enthusiasm and enjoyment. The girls team skipped their half time locker room chats and spent that time in the stands watching the action. Everyone in the stands was cheering, loudly applauded and cheered each basket. It was amazing.

    One of the challenged girls wanted to be a cheerleader. The high school cheerleaders got her some pom-poms, spent a couple of minutes showing how to use them, then let her cheer right along with the rest of the cheerleaders. The look of pure enjoyment was awesome.

    I think I got schooled again last night.

    4
    18
  2. MrAtoz says:

    23°F in San Antonio this am. Brrr time to pack for Vegas. Just as cold there.

  3. MrAtoz says:

    Speaking of the Hutts.

    Eye candy for Mr. SteveF.

    2
  4. Mark W says:

    Thanks MrAtoz for that delight.

    While there I found this story: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10476993/Farmer-used-forklift-tractor-car-parked-land-CLEARED.html – perhaps there is still hope for the West?

    3
  5. JimB says:

    Keep warm, Texans! In a few months you will hope you could have stored some icy relief.

    We have had recent mild winters, but our time will come. Averages.

  6. EdH says:

    The GDPR compliance pop ups violate…the GDPR….

    https://www.engadget.com/european-union-gdpr-ad-tech-unlawful-iccl-iab-europe-125735068.html

  7. Chad says:

    Since the kids are home, I’ll be sleeping in a bit, then we’ll play it by ear

    Take the kids to their favorite restaurant for lunch, buy them a bauble or two, take the oldest out to a huge parking lot somewhere and let her drive the truck for a bit. I really look forward to snow days. We turn them into impromptu father-daughter days. Work and chores be damned.

    3
  8. drwilliams says:

    @Nick

    Second the motion. 

    Donuts in the parking lot with D1

    3
  9. Alan says:

    >> Donuts in the parking lot with D1

    You missed: Followed by fresh hot donuts from Krispy Kreme 

    2
  10. MrAtoz says:

    My Dad taught me to drive in snow, ice, mud when I was learning to drive as a kid. Winters in Rhinelander, WI, could be long and bitter. Driving in mud was taught so we could go out bird hunting on old washed out logging roads. I'd drive, my Dad rode shotgun, literally, with a 20ga just inside the case (by law). Partridge is delish in a pot pie.

  11. RickH says:

    Robot's after-party – https://youtu.be/SUQnduNzsw8

    Servo-drunks?

    2
    2
  12. Nick Flandrey says:

    Still only 29F here in Houston.  Just now getting going.  Rest of family well awake and making noise.

    I don't think my pickups took the day off.    I'm going to have to venture out at some point.

    n

  13. Chad says:

    My Dad taught me to drive in snow, ice, mud when I was learning to drive as a kid. Winters in Rhinelander, WI, could be long and bitter. Driving in mud was taught so we could go out bird hunting on old washed out logging roads. I'd drive, my Dad rode shotgun, literally, with a 20ga just inside the case (by law). Partridge is delish in a pot pie.

    I had a buddy that drove a logging truck. He told me once his truck started sliding sideways in the mud on dirt road in the mountains. So, he put it in park and sat there until the middle of the night when the ground froze and he could safely try again. I guess it was cheaper than calling a wrecker and certainly better than rolling sideways down the side of a mountain. I suppose that's really only an option certain times of the year.

    My father was telling me how you can't steer when your wheels were locked. I wasn't understanding the concept. So, since we were on super icy roads in the middle of the night and nobody else was around he simply stomped the break, the wheels locked, the car started sliding, and then he said, "Now, try and steer." I reached over steered left and right and the car kept sliding in the same direction. Lesson learned.

    Partridges remind me of a pigeon joke….

    "Did you know pigeons die after mating?"
    "No they don't."
    "Well, the one I f'ed did!"

    2
  14. Jenny says:

    @nick

    i want to read about doing donuts with your daughters in the snow too -grin-

    @chad

    steered left and right and the car kept sliding in the same direction

    Studded tires help quite a lot. You won’t stop any better however controlling your trajectory to certain death is a plus. 
     

    Was all wound up about stuff so bailed on responsibilities and went to a movie, selected based on criteria if time playing and not a gore fest. Yikes. What a stinker if a film. Watching the moon crash into earth was promising. The wooden acting, constant suspension of disbelief, and the disjointed story line kinda ruined it. I was rooting for the bad guy at the end. The last couple minutes after the action was over we’re particularly excruciating. I had a free ticket and the popcorn was good, so there’s that. 
     

    4
  15. Greg Norton says:

    Was all wound up about stuff so bailed on responsibilities and went to a movie, selected based on criteria if time playing and not a gore fest. Yikes. What a stinker if a film. Watching the moon crash into earth was promising. The wooden acting, constant suspension of disbelief, and the disjointed story line kinda ruined it. I was rooting for the bad guy at the end. The last couple minutes after the action was over we’re particularly excruciating. I had a free ticket and the popcorn was good, so there’s that. 

    I know you like to leave the house, but Redbox has "The French Dispatch".

    If you can handle some blood, they also have "Last Night in Soho".

    “Ghostbusters Afterlife” is out on video. I ran the DVD last night. Sadly, the sound mix is still off, and I assume that’s true with the BluRay.

    Sound editing at home in their jammies isn’t working.

  16. Geoff Powell says:

    @chad:

    I reached over steered left and right and the car kept sliding in the same direction. Lesson learned.

    Puts me in mind of a 1980s cold snap here in London. We'd had snow a day or so before, and I was driving to work one morning, up a hill. To be forced to stop behind a car that was stuck half-way up, waggling its back end, while the rear driving wheels were spinning madly.

    Eventually, the car drifted off to the side, still with massive wheelspin, and I could trundle past it, slowly, with a feather-light right foot, and no evidence of wheelspin, despite driving over the exact same bit of iced-up tarmac. I hope the idiot driver took note, but I don't know, I didn't look back.

    G.

    3
  17. Nick Flandrey says:

    I grew up in the Chicago area, so I'm no stranger to snow and ice driving, but I've been in the ditch or into the trees enough times to know not to go looking for it…

    The "donuts in a parking lot" was a rite of passage for midwesterners.  The trick now is finding a lot that is flat and doesn't have concrete light poles everywhere.

    The habits and reflexes are still there, but only for rear wheel drive vehicles.   My 40 years of driving rwd has given me reflexive reactions that are completely wrong for fwd.  I'll have to stick with rwd.

    D1 isn't chomping at the bit for driving lessons.   She does want the code to the gub safe "in case something happens to you" and she has to fight zombies.   No.  Not yet.  It'll have to be improvised weapons if it comes to that any time soon.   Improvised driving too.

    n

  18. Nick Flandrey says:

    It's getting so you can't keep the liars and lies straight….

    US paratroopers land in Poland to deter Putin just hours after the US accused him of a 'false flag' plot to start a war by faking a Ukrainian genocide with graphic video of fake bodies

    • The 1,700 soldiers join roughly 4,000 that are already stationed across Poland
    • The paratroopers are from the Fort Bragg-based 82nd Airborne Division
    • Pictures showed them disembarking a military aircraft in Rzeszow on Friday
    • It comes as Moscow continues to mass troops on its borders with Ukraine 

    –remember when even talking about a 'false flag' event got you branded a tin foil hat wearing lunatic?

    yeah, those were the good old days.

    We will have war in Ukraine.  And is sure looks like the US will stick its beak in.

    n

    2
  19. Alan says:

    >> Or, when we bought the land we built on: the vast majority of the realtors were incompetent, and most of them were slimeballs on top of it. The woman we bought through was the only one who actually paid attention to what we wanted to buy, instead of showing us what she wanted to sell.

    We found our current house ourselves on Zillow. Similar to you, most Realtors ™  we spoke with were mainly interested in what they wanted to sell.

  20. Alan says:

    >> Back in the dark ages, when I did my first masters at AFIT, one of the profs was really into studying human perception. Among other things, he had studied the actual bit-rate of information flowing into your brain. His conclusion was that we have a bandwidth equivalent to 50 bits per second. Highly optimized, of course, but that's the actual throughput. 50 bits isn't very much.

    I wonder how this compares to the current generation of autonomous driving systems?

    I posted this late on Wednesday and was talking to a friend about it and I still can't yet get my head around this being okay, especially since we drive that route now and then. Hopefully those trucks are easily identifiable to that I can give them a wide berth.

    Sending a driver-less 80,000 lb. tractor-trailer on I10 at 75 MPH should be fine, right?

    https://www.up.com/media/releases/tusimple-tucson-phoenix-nr-220202.htm

    2
  21. Nick Flandrey says:

    80k pounds is the typical semi CARGO capacity.  Full rig usually weighs 120K.

    n

    3
    1
  22. Nick Flandrey says:

    In the current climate, finding houses for sale is like finding jobs used to be, entirely word of mouth and recco from friends and neighbors.

    n

  23. Nick Flandrey says:

    Couple of miles from my house.

    Family of 'self-taught' dentists are arrested for working without a license out of a FILTHY office in Houston filled overflowing trash, messy wires and stained floors

    • A family trio of self-taught dentists were arrested for operating without a license inside their squalid office
    • Byron Alberto Zelaya, 58, his son Bryant Jesus Zelaya, 31, and nephew Omar Navarrete-Sevilla, 29, were running the decrepit clinic in Houston, Texas
    • The father described himself as a self-taught dentist who had previously worked at a dental lab before starting his own practice a year ago where his son and nephew joined in
    • One of his patients, who had paid $2,000 for work leading up to braces, tipped off police after noticing a lack of licenses and diplomas in the dirty clinic  
  24. drwilliams says:

    Filth didn't raise a flag, but lack of a credential—easily copied from the internet and stuck on the wall in a swanky five dollar frame—did?

    3
    1
  25. Greg Norton says:

    Family of 'self-taught' dentists are arrested for working without a license out of a FILTHY office in Houston filled overflowing trash, messy wires and stained floors

    That description would fit my wife's office in Florida.

    Medical waste was handled appropriately, but the break room trash was always out of control.

  26. Greg Norton says:

    Filth didn't raise a flag, but lack of a credential—easily copied from the internet and stuck on the wall in a swanky five dollar frame—did?

    No word on whether they were dissatisfied with the *service* either.

    I've never seen a filthy dentist's office but it isn't uncommon for doctor's offices anymore.

    And, again, pray that the mops don't stop moving in the hospitals in the "Great Resignation".

  27. Alan says:

    >> Eventually, the car drifted off to the side, still with massive wheelspin, and I could trundle past it, slowly, with a feather-light right foot, and no evidence of wheelspin, despite driving over the exact same bit of iced-up tarmac. I hope the idiot driver took note, but I don't know, I didn't look back.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTVDpOaTGsc

  28. lynn says:

    Well, I was wrong.  ERCOT's peak this morning at 9am was 69,000 MW.  I had predicted 75,000 MW to 80,000 MW.   I suspect that it did not get as cold across the Great State of Texas as the forecasters had predicted.

    ERCOT was well provided with 85,000 MW of capacity at that time, 16,000 MW of what we used to call spinning reserve.  That is actually a good place to be as most steam turbine power plants are most efficient at 85% load.  The gas turbines get more efficient as you fire them harder, until they melt.

    2
  29. lynn says:

    "Amazon has a secret overstock outlet that’s filled with tons of home deals"

        https://amazon.com/outlet/

    "Score major savings on everything from throw pillows to a bread maker."

    Why am I not surprised ?  Amazon leaves nothing on the table.  Or under the table.

    Hat tip to:
    https://www.chron.com/shopping/article/amazon-hidden-overstock-outlet-home-deals-16831726.php

  30. lynn says:

    "Amazon Prime Fee Rising to $180, Not $139, for Many Members"

        https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-prime-fee-rise-180-175155725.html

    “That’s because they pay each month, a fee that’s rising to $14.99 from $12.99. The company introduced the monthly subscription in 2016 to attract more middle- and low-income shoppers. The strategy worked, and 52% of subscribers now pay each month, according to Consumer Intelligence Research Partners.”

    In this case, pay annually is the way better deal.

  31. Greg Norton says:

    Well, I was wrong.  ERCOT's peak this morning at 9am was 69,000 MW.  I had predicted 75,000 MW to 80,000 MW.   I suspect that it did not get as cold across the Great State of Texas as the forecasters had predicted.

    The equivalent of three million F150 Lightning trucks charging simultaneously, give or take. Think about it. How many are they planning to sell in Texas this year?

    The melt started at my house at around 9 AM even though the official Austin temps still read in the low 20s. The sun was key.

    Last night, I couldn't get into my Solara's trunk due to about a quarter inch of ice. As of about 15 minutes ago, that is all gone. I’ll try starting the car in a little while, but I doubt I will have a problem.

    We had less ice last February, but it lasted longer due to the clouds sticking around for a couple of days.

  32. lynn says:

    I know that people were not inclined to be caught off guard this time.  And normal shortages seem to be making preppers out of everyone.  Well, not actually everyone, lot of folks though.

    A lot of people are now very aware that we are living in scarcity times.  But, a significant amount of the populace shops every freaking day of the week and then goes by McDonalds on the way home for at least one meal a day.  If the grocery stores go permanently empty, they will be in a world of hurt and looking to their neighbors for food.  Don't be their neighbor.

  33. lynn says:

    >> Back in the dark ages, when I did my first masters at AFIT, one of the profs was really into studying human perception. Among other things, he had studied the actual bit-rate of information flowing into your brain. His conclusion was that we have a bandwidth equivalent to 50 bits per second. Highly optimized, of course, but that's the actual throughput. 50 bits isn't very much.

    I wonder how this compares to the current generation of autonomous driving systems?

    I posted this late on Wednesday and was talking to a friend about it and I still can't yet get my head around this being okay, especially since we drive that route now and then. Hopefully those trucks are easily identifiable to that I can give them a wide berth.

    Sending a driver-less 80,000 lb. tractor-trailer on I10 at 75 MPH should be fine, right?

    https://www.up.com/media/releases/tusimple-tucson-phoenix-nr-220202.htm

    Watch the movie "Logan" for an incident between a pickup pulling a horse trailer and autonomous driving trucks.  It is not very pretty at all.

         https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logan_(film)

    Highly recommended, especially if you are an X-Men fan.  Warning: very high body count.

  34. lynn says:

    80k pounds is the typical semi CARGO capacity.  Full rig usually weighs 120K.

    n

    Only for overweight rigs with signage and permits.  The typical 18 wheeler is licensed for total GVWR of tractor and trailer at 80,000 lbs and 80 ft length.  If the tractor, fuel, and empty trailer weigh 25,000 lbs then the cargo can be up to 55,000 lbs. 

        https://www.thetruckersreport.com/facts-about-trucks/

  35. Alan says:

    >> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10474269/Mainstream-news-outlets-IGNORE-Johns-Hopkins-study-COVID-lockdowns-reduced-deaths-0-2.html

        cracks in the narrative

    And some possible cracks in the story…

    Done by economists only, no MD(s)

    Not yet peer reviewed nor officially published

    Questions around which studies were included/excluded in the meta-analysis

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10473937/Now-Prof-Lockdown-slams-shock-study-draconian-curbs-reduced-Covid-deaths-0-2.html

    1
  36. SteveF says:

    Done by economists only, no MD(s)

    Why should that make the study less worthwhile? MDs have pretty well tanked their own credibility.

    3
  37. TV says:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10477041/Does-Vitamin-D-work-Covid-Israeli-study-finds-nutrient-big-indicator-severity.html

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10474269/Mainstream-news-outlets-IGNORE-Johns-Hopkins-study-COVID-lockdowns-reduced-deaths-0-2.html

    cracks in the narrative

    n

    Not really, or at least not the first link.  If you are vitamin deficient – any vitamin – you are likely functioning at some reduced level of metabolic efficiency (scurvy at the far end of vitamin C deficiency).  No doubt that hits the immune system as well.  As per the other studies, if you already have sufficient vitamin D, more will not provide additional benefit.  If you are deficient, well you got problems and COVID is not just the only one.

    I have to say that I find it fascinating that this is a problem in the Middle East.  Your body will generate vitamin D for you if you expose skin to sun.  To my recollection, 15 minutes at noon on face and arms is enough daily.  Not enough vitamin D, due to not enough sun and cold weather is a northern problem – Canada and Scandinavia.  Not enough sun in the warm Middle East, and particularly in Israel where covering-up head-to-toe is not that likely?  Boggles the mind for me.

  38. lynn says:

    "Shoppers Are Caught Off Guard as Prices on Everyday Items Change More Often"

        https://www.wsj.com/articles/shoppers-are-caught-off-guard-as-prices-on-everyday-items-change-more-often-11643970606

    "Airlines, gas stations and large retailers have used dynamic pricing for years. Now others are trying out the strategy to deal with inflation."

    Digital pricing labels are coming to a store near you soon.

    Hat tip to (if you have trouble reading then go through Drudge Report as it bypasses the paywall):

        https://www.drudgereport.com/

  39. TV says:

    As for the second link from Nick:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10474269/Mainstream-news-outlets-IGNORE-Johns-Hopkins-study-COVID-lockdowns-reduced-deaths-0-2.html

    The narrative in Canada has never been as much about reducing the death rate (though we have half the reported death rate of the US, mostly due to a higher vaccination rate) as it is about reducing pressure on the hospitals.  Early days in Italy the hospitals were so swamped they were having to triage patients, leaving some to die due to insufficient respirators and other resources.  We all have enough respirators now, just not enough nurses and doctors to man the ICUs if you don't try to control the rate of infection.  The pressure on the hospitals and ICUs was immense, and lockdowns were put in place to ease that pressure, which has worked.  So, lockdowns work for preventing a breakdown in the hospitals.  You would have to go as far as China has gone to say lockdowns "prevent infection", and that may eventually stop working (and maybe backfire) for China with how infectious Omicron is.

    2
    1
  40. lpdbw says:

    Done by economists only, no MD(s)

    Not yet peer reviewed nor officially published

    Questions around which studies were included/excluded in the meta-analysis

    1. I trust economists far more than I trust MDs when it comes to number crunching.  Even epidemiologists, who are supposed to be good at this stuff, have been completely wrong during the plandemic.  If Steve Levitt weren't a lefty statist apoligist, I'd trust his reading of this way more than Neil Ferguson.  Fortunately, I mistrust both.
    2. Peer review is worthless.  It's been proven worthless for years now.  At best, 50% of peer reviewed studies are reproducible.  And that includes hard sciences, not just CRT-based disparate outcome studies.
    3. Which studies get included in a meta-analysis is always a problem.  How come it's only an issue when it's the official narrative being questioned?
  41. SteveF says:

    we have half the reported death rate of the US, mostly due to a higher vaccination rate

    A pair of assertions which would likely founder upon examination.

    3
    7
    1
  42. lynn says:

    we have half the reported death rate of the US, mostly due to a higher vaccination rate

    The reported death rate in the USA is very suspect as the hospitals were getting paid extra for Koof deaths. 

    At best, all those people died with The Koof, not all of The Koof.  And I am not even sure of that fact.

    6
    1
  43. Chad says:

    The narrative in Canada has never been as much about reducing the death rate (though we have half the reported death rate of the US, mostly due to a higher vaccination rate) as it is about reducing pressure on the hospitals.  Early days in Italy the hospitals were so swamped they were having to triage patients, leaving some to die due to insufficient respirators and other resources.  We all have enough respirators now, just not enough nurses and doctors to man the ICUs if you don't try to control the rate of infection.  The pressure on the hospitals and ICUs was immense, and lockdowns were put in place to ease that pressure, which has worked.  So, lockdowns work for preventing a breakdown in the hospitals.  You would have to go as far as China has gone to say lockdowns "prevent infection", and that may eventually stop working (and maybe backfire) for China with how infectious Omicron is.

    I've found that this is another one of those things that was hard to measure. Sure, if 100 patients NEEDED to be on a respirator but the hospital could only handle 80 of them then that's pretty straightforward. However, patient load (whether regular or ICU), like so many other things, had a bunch of variables. Does "at capacity" mean they're out of ICU beds, out of respirators, out of ALL beds, out of beds in their special COVID quarantine ward, or exceeded what their staff can realistically handle? Are all COVID patients in a small to medium metro being funneled to one hospital? If so, does that mean just that one hospital is overwhelmed or they all are? Does the bar of who needs admitted keep changing? Who is submitting the numbers? Is there a standard for the numbers or does that vary from health system to health system and state to state? Patients that were turned away in December 2020 as not being bad enough to admit were readily admitted in December 2021. So, now you're not really comparing apples to apples when determining if hospitals can handle the patients as they keep changing the criteria for which patients need admitted.

    The numbers for this whole thing are so royally fucked up.

    1
  44. ech says:

    The reported death rate in the USA is very suspect as the hospitals were getting paid extra for Koof deaths. 

    No. They get paid extra for anyone that tests positive for COVID.

  45. TV says:

    we have half the reported death rate of the US, mostly due to a higher vaccination rate

    A pair of assertions which would likely founder upon examination.

    Well Steve, I am wrong.  I just checked at a couple of sites.  Deaths per million population in the US is roughly 2700.  Deaths per million population in Canada is roughly 900.  Canada has a third of the reported death rate. 

    Reported vaccination rate for the US – 64.2%, for Canada 79.6% (of total population).  Something must be working.  

    3
    1
  46. ech says:

    Something must be working.  

    They probably didn't send infected people back to nursing homes. 

    1
  47. TV says:

    The narrative in Canada has never been as much about reducing the death rate (though we have half the reported death rate of the US, mostly due to a higher vaccination rate) as it is about reducing pressure on the hospitals.  Early days in Italy the hospitals were so swamped they were having to triage patients, leaving some to die due to insufficient respirators and other resources.  We all have enough respirators now, just not enough nurses and doctors to man the ICUs if you don't try to control the rate of infection.  The pressure on the hospitals and ICUs was immense, and lockdowns were put in place to ease that pressure, which has worked.  So, lockdowns work for preventing a breakdown in the hospitals.  You would have to go as far as China has gone to say lockdowns "prevent infection", and that may eventually stop working (and maybe backfire) for China with how infectious Omicron is.

    I've found that this is another one of those things that was hard to measure. Sure, if 100 patients NEEDED to be on a respirator but the hospital could only handle 80 of them then that's pretty straightforward. However, patient load (whether regular or ICU), like so many other things, had a bunch of variables. Does "at capacity" mean they're out of ICU beds, out of respirators, out of ALL beds, out of beds in their special COVID quarantine ward, or exceeded what their staff can realistically handle? Are all COVID patients in a small to medium metro being funneled to one hospital? If so, does that mean just that one hospital is overwhelmed or they all are? Does the bar of who needs admitted keep changing? Who is submitting the numbers? Is there a standard for the numbers or does that vary from health system to health system and state to state? Patients that were turned away in December 2020 as not being bad enough to admit were readily admitted in December 2021. So, now you're not really comparing apples to apples when determining if hospitals can handle the patients as they keep changing the criteria for which patients need admitted.

    The numbers for this whole thing are so royally fucked up.

    If they can only handle 80 of 100 patients, they can only handle 80.  Why only 80 of 100 is looking for causes and trying to solve a problem.  Solving the problem is a good idea, but it still means that at this time you are only treating 80 when you need to treat 100.  Barring a quick and correct analysis of all those factors and having additional resources readily available, one approach (and not the only approach – you want to increase capacity so you can treat all 100) would be to somehow manage the arrival rate.  So lockdowns.  Yes they suck.  They work as part of a solution to managing capacity.

    Understand that the 80 of 100 number changes.  One of the biggest limitations here has been number of available nurses.  They get sick too, not just with COVID, and are more likely to be sick due to being worn down by constant overtime.  So 80 might be 70 some days, and maybe 85 on others.  Nothing is going to stay static for analysis.  Every day you have a capacity number that may vary.  What matters is that if your number of patients exceeds that capacity number, you (and certainly some of those patients) have big problems. 

    The numbers in Canada were managed at the provincial level, since the health systems are run by the provinces.  Internal to the provinces, they may do a further breakdown, but no one is trying to make the numbers perfect.  No one cared if the national numbers were counted exactly the same – why would you when there is no national management of hospitals and related resources?  When Manitoba (or was it Saskatchewan) ran out of ICU capacity and Ontario had some available, patients were moved, and some staff were lent (volunteered actually) between provinces that had beds but were short staff.  You can go at the capacity problem from both ends, but if you run out, its trouble. 

    1
    2
  48. TV says:

    Something must be working.  

    They probably didn't send infected people back to nursing homes. 

    To my knowledge, we didn't do that in Canada.  I think we did a bunch of other (in retrospect) stupid things with and in nursing homes early on.  I am sure somewhere there is a state, or province, or country that has managed this perfectly (Taiwan??).  Mostly, there were screw-ups everywhere.

  49. Nick Flandrey says:

    Someone has the link to the US death stats ex- nursing homes in NY and iirc that puts us well under most other places. 

    It is interesting how, without even any malice, peoples' recollections and assertions change.  I often re-read posts and comments here from last year and from 2020 for a gut check.

    I think I've been consistent from the beginning that all the measures taken were nominally  to prevent overwhelming the healthcare system and prevent a collapse of same, and that this was ALL they could do.

    I've also argued that looking at the shape of the curves for cases, admittance, and death all show normal curves.  None that I've seen show any plateau  that would indicate that something influenced the number of instances.   IE if we maxed out hospital capacity, the admittances curve would plateau at maximum capacity, then fall off as we came below capacity.  We do not see this.    This is not "flatten the curve" which referred to decreasing the rise of graphed incidents, ie. the INCREASE in the rate of instances:  rate=number / time.  We also did not see any dramatic graphs where this is obvious.

    One conclusion I could draw from the very normal graphs is that nothing that we did was particularly effective.   Another might be that someone was 'cooking the books' and manipulating the numbers. 

    WRT vitamin D, search here for my previous comments about it.   Per Aesop, if you show up in his ER with covid, you get a big whack of vitamin D.  That's been  true for a while, over a year?   Low levels are very common in people with bad covid outcomes.  There is little down side to taking it, and quite a payoff, so again, why not?  And again, why did we hear NOTHING about prevention and little about treatment for most of two years?  Esp after years of being pestered non-stop to get shingles, flu, and preventative measures for other less deadly diseases?

    n

  50. TV says:

    Someone has the link to the US death stats ex- nursing homes in NY and iirc that puts us well under most other places. 

    Not really.  Around 896,000 deaths in the US.  NY state accounts for about 65,000.  That's just 7.25% of the total.  Most of the NY deaths were early and much of that was the nursing homes (I imagine – someone else can check).  Scandalous, but not as big a contributor to overall deaths as you may think.

    1
    1
  51. Greg Norton says:

    To my knowledge, we didn't do that in Canada.  I think we did a bunch of other (in retrospect) stupid things with and in nursing homes early on.  I am sure somewhere there is a state, or province, or country that has managed this perfectly (Taiwan??).  Mostly, there were screw-ups everywhere.

    On the topic of screw-ups, is Trudeau back in his residence or still in hiding?

    The political effectiveness of our Screw-Up-In-Chief died with his vaccine mandate. He’s in hiding too.

    4
    1
  52. lpdbw says:

    someone was 'cooking the books' and manipulating the numbers. 

    I have observed CDC manipulating the "excess deaths" numbers at least 4 times over the last year.

    I check their graphs weekly, and 3 times, the number of weekly deaths has dipped below the 5-year average (for non-Hispanic whites).  Each time, within a couple of weeks, their underlying dataset has been changed to show that it never dipped below the average.

    Shameless liars.

    And at this point, I would question the interpretation of even an honest provider of excess deaths data.  Because the lockdowns, the bacteria-and-virus contaminated masks, the suicides, the "vaccine" deaths,  the deferred cancer treatments, and the drug overdoses have an impact on that number, but a naive observer would blame Covid, not "vaccines" or increases in the other categories due to government overreactions.

    So from now forward, I'm assuming that all excess deaths are due to government policies or "vaccine" side-effects.  After all, everybody is vaccinated; if they work, no one should be dying of Covid itself any more.

  53. Pecancorner says:

    re COVID: I always only looked at Brown county.  That way I'm only seeing honest, clean, unmessed-with numbers that pertain to our actual situation.  Up until this latest strain hit with a thousand positives each week for three weeks, our ratio of cumulative total positive tests to cumulative total deaths ran 2.5% to 3% consistently for 22 months.  Now that the new, mild version has been running through the area, the death rate is becoming negligible.  We'll see if that continues as the case count is tapering off.

    re This Weather:  I've never seen a snow plow around here, but remarkably, a state or county truck with a big plow on the front of it just went by out front.  There's been no precipitation all day, but there was still a thick coat of ice on the road.

    We live on a Farm-to-Market road that is a primary detour for oversized loads on the state highway …. which is probably why they have plowed it. They expect traffic to pick back up again tomorrow.   

  54. Greg Norton says:

    I am sure somewhere there is a state, or province, or country that has managed this perfectly (Taiwan??). 

    Taiwan may be a democracy, but they have a long tradition of strong man governments plus the same authoritarian "Number One Son" family culture as the Mainland.

    Until recently, their vaccination rates were very low.

  55. Ray Thompson says:

    With the home Covid tests delivered the numbers of Covid cases should drop. No one who takes a Covid test and gets a positive result is going to report to the government. Getting tests at pharmacies would cause a reporting of a case. What is going to happen with the government numbers? If the numbers stay the same the numbers are bogus as no one is self-reporting.

  56. Nick Flandrey says:

    Didn't they stop reporting on death numbers in the media?  And they'll stop reporting 'cases' too.  There will just be % numbers and "rates" or "x times more likely" statements.

    Everyone who wants a vax has had one (US).  Everyone who can be easily coerced into getting one against their true desires has had one.

    Vax rates are not going to change much from this point, and in fact have not changed much in months.

    Outcomes have been very similar in states with open policies vs states with restrictive policies, again pointing to little effectiveness for any of the measures.

    n

  57. MrAtoz says:

    Started watching “Reacher” on Prime.

    Me like it!

    At the airport. Viva Las Vegas!

  58. MrAtoz says:

    Here ya go:

    Wearing a properly fitting N95 or KN95 mask can reduce a person's risk of infection from Covid by 83%, CDC study finds

    Really? They asked a bunch of people in Kalifornia and made this conclusion? Less than useless.

  59. lpdbw says:

    Because it's from the CDC, all the covidiots will assume it's all sciency and stuff.

    But it's just another non-RCT observational self-reported study.

    But please, tell me again how VAERS is bogus because of self-reporting.

  60. Greg Norton says:

    Circle K run tonight to pick up a movie at Redbox.

    When I peeked in the store, it wasn't picked clean like February, but as I was leaving, a G Wagon pulled up, the driver looking embarrassed to be there as he headed into the building.

    Coke products? Twinkies?

    No ice on the ground in Round Rock tonight except whatever is left in yards.

  61. Alan says:

    >> I am sure somewhere there is a state, or province, or country that has managed this perfectly (Taiwan??). 

    Sure there is, it's North Korea…zero cases since day one…certified by Kim himself !

    1
  62. Alan says:

    >> Circle K run tonight to pick up a movie at Redbox.

    When I peeked in the store, it wasn't picked clean like February, but as I was leaving, a G Wagon pulled up, the driver looking embarrassed to be there as he headed into the building.

    Coke products? Twinkies?

    Condoms??

    5
  63. lynn says:

    >> I am sure somewhere there is a state, or province, or country that has managed this perfectly (Taiwan??). 

    Sure there is, it's North Korea…zero cases since day one…certified by Kim himself !

    Where is the firing squad emoji ?

  64. Greg Norton says:

    @Jenny – "Jackass Forever" wasn't playing at your theater?

    2
  65. lynn says:

    >> Circle K run tonight to pick up a movie at Redbox.

    When I peeked in the store, it wasn't picked clean like February, but as I was leaving, a G Wagon pulled up, the driver looking embarrassed to be there as he headed into the building.

    Coke products? Twinkies?

    Condoms??

    I have it on strong words that cellophane does not work.  They had a bouncing baby boy nine months later.

    2
  66. CowboySlim says:

    Mr. Atoz,

    Started watching “Reacher” on Prime.

    I've been reading the Reacher novels and love them.  Finished one today.

  67. Greg Norton says:

    Condoms??

    I have it on strong words that cellophane does not work.  They had a bouncing baby boy nine months later.

    Birth control would have been last night's convenience store run.

    The major roads were clear tonight so the bacchanalia is probably on down on 6th street.

    Not that a little ice would have stopped them.

  68. Greg Norton says:

    Wearing a properly fitting N95 or KN95 mask can reduce a person's risk of infection from Covid by 83%, CDC study finds

    Really? They asked a bunch of people in Kalifornia and made this conclusion? Less than useless.

    The key words are "properly fitting". The generic N95/KN95 masks do not fall into that category.

    Masks have always been kabuki beyond a small chance of a sick person not spreading their infection by wearing one. God forbid we stigmatize, however, so everyone had to wear the face diaper.

  69. drwilliams says:

    More Focus On The Impossible Costs Of A Fully Wind/Solar/Battery Energy System

    Reposted from the MANHATTAN CONTRARIAN February 01, 2022/ Francis Menton

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/02/04/more-focus-on-the-impossible-costs-of-a-fully-wind-solar-battery-energy-system/

    Don't read it.

    I'm going to save you a lot of time.

    Two excerpts is almost all you need:

    But then a few weeks ago I discovered at Watts Up With That some new work from someone named Ken Gregory (again, a retired, independent guy — funny, isn’t it?), who produced a spreadsheet for the entire United States again showing that about 30 days’ storage would be needed to back up a fully wind/solar system. (Cost for the storage, assuming all energy use gets electrified: about $400 trillion.)

    For cost of storage, Caiazza takes what he calls a standard EIA figure of $250/MWH for the batteries. At this price, 200,000 MWH would cost $50 billion. Then there is the cost of the solar panels. Here, Caiazza has a standard EIA figure of $1.3 million per MW. For the 10,500 MW capacity case, that would mean $13.7 billion. Add the $50 billion plus the $13.7 billion and you get $63.7 billion.

    And that’s for the 1000 MW firm power case. Remember, fully-electrified New York State is going to need 60,000 MW firm. So multiply the $63.7 billion by 60, and you get $3.822 trillion. For comparison, the annual GDP of New York State is approximately $1.75 trillion.

    US population 332MM (2020 census + est increase, including alien invaders)

    NYS population 20MM (2020 census)

    400MMMM/332MM = 1.2MM = 1,200,000 per capita

    3.82MMMM/20MM = 190M = 190,000 per capita

    Slightly different assumptions, one is about 6.3X the other, less than one order of magnitude.

    Oh, yeah…

    One other number you need:

    Total global net worth (2020): $431MMMM (US$431 trillion)

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/total-global-wealth-rose-to-us-431-trillion-in-2020-01623322810

     

  70. drwilliams says:

    In other news:

    Johns Hopkins Study: Lockdowns Saved No Lives and Only Destroyed Jobs. —Ace;

    from the conclusion:

    More specifically, stringency index studies find that lockdowns in Europe and the United States only reduced COVID-19 mortality by 0.2% on average.

    Ace has a beautiful, wonderful, delicious takedown of the whole thing, including:

    You know, now that I think about it, weird thing about the models — AllahPundit really believed in them, really believed that 2.2 million would die by October 2020 if we didn't lock down, but if we did lock down, only 200,000 would die.

    Funny thing though: Sometimes Trump would rely on those models. Sometimes Trump would say, "They said if we didn't lock down, 2.2 million people would die. We locked down. Only 300,000 (or whatever the number was at the time) died. So I saved 1.9 million lives."

    The math worked. If you believed the models, Trump was right.

    But the weird thing is, AllahPundit, who really seemed to believe in the models when he was demanding we all adopt his shut-in, live-on-the-computer lifestyle, suddenly seemed to stop believing in the model's predictive capacity when Trump followed the model's predictions and said he saved 1.9 million people.

    Suddenly Allah seemed to think the model was a total pile of lies whose numbers could not be trusted. Like it was just stupid to even talk about the numbers in the model. Like only an idiot would bring those numbers up and talk about them as if they had any relationship to reality

    and…

    Hey, speaking of Allah, I wonder who covered this at Hot Air — John Sexton or Karen Townsend?

    Nah, I'm sure AllahPundit will cover this. Like all good liberals, he "Loves The Science," and he surely wouldn't ignore a major finding just because of some unhinged partisan neener-neenerism. After all, he's also always telling us how much he abhors "tribalism," especially in his enemies. He's always telling us about the dangers of tribalism in every hot-button culture war issue he leaps at the opportunity with bloody single-mindedness to offer an Own the Cons Hot Take on.

    So yeah, I'm sure his coverage will be forthcoming, and majestic.

    So far, crickets, but they do have a thumb up for Jack Reacher, latest on Avenatti's lube-test plan, GoFundMe's theft of funds from Canadian truckers, and Liz Cheney's ongoing battle with her ego cancer, and a heart-rending appeal from Beauty's Beast for a national divorce.

    2
    1
  71. lynn says:

    More Focus On The Impossible Costs Of A Fully Wind/Solar/Battery Energy System

    Reposted from the MANHATTAN CONTRARIAN February 01, 2022/ Francis Menton

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/02/04/more-focus-on-the-impossible-costs-of-a-fully-wind-solar-battery-energy-system/

    Don't read it.

    I'm going to save you a lot of time.

    Two excerpts is almost all you need:

    That article ignored a very big cost.  The batteries have to be replaced every ten years or 4,000 charge cycles.  So that is $250/MWH every ten years for new batteries. 

    And what are we going to do with the old batteries ?  Nevada does not want them.

  72. drwilliams says:

    Just mathing around, I think I know how to get started on this big battery thing

    First we get all the pale sweaty billionaires together on the tv, with each one sitting on a stool in front of a screen showing their net worth. Then we ask who isn't all-in to fight climate change.

    Any one that puts a hand up, we ask how much money they want to keep. Then we tabulate the votes to see if they get to keep that much. The votes were collected from the drop-in ballot boxes around the country the day before. Yes, technically before the question was even asked, but that's okay, 'cuz every one of those fellas was all -in on modifying decades old rules to ensure the integrity of elections, so it just wouldn't be sporty to cry about another one, now wood it?

    So all their screens drop to zero and the total of the "Battery Fund" goes up to about $400 billion.

    Then the host of the program–I'm going to suggest a Lawrence Welk avatar–nods and smiles and says "Wunnerful! Wunneroful! We are 0.1% of the way towards decreasing the temperature of the earth by 0.02 degrees, we have to keep going!

    "Next group up: Divorced wives and widows of Pale Sweaty Billionaires! Get those votes ready!

    "On Deck: Elected officials and families who sold out their offices!"

    [NOTE: That one will have to run for a couple months on 24-hour cable, but you get a lot of bang for your buck at the reduced ad rates!! And don't pass up that great deal on the Time-Life 50-Year Anniversary of Watergate, complete on 500 bluray disks!!!]

    2
  73. MrAtoz says:

    I've been reading the Reacher novels and love them.  Finished one today.

    I’ve read several, Mr. CowboySllim. S01 is “Killing Floor”.

  74. drwilliams says:

    @Lynn

    That article ignored a very big cost.  The batteries have to be replaced every ten years or 4,000 charge cycles.  So that is $250/MWH every ten years for new batteries. 

    Just go back to your engineering and leave the miracles of compound interest to politicians.

    And what are we going to do with the old batteries ?  Nevada does not want them.

    The space aliens that are going to buy the earth so we have the money to buy batteries will require the use of all garage space in the buildings they then own to be used for old batteries. There won't be any cars to park in them and any mancave conversions for football watching will be reconverted since foots the ball will only be played by peasants trying to stay warm in winter.

  75. Nick Flandrey says:

    @TV, I meant for the 'cracks in the narrative' to be more general than the specific articles, more the meta fact that the articles got published in the first place.   I know DM is a tabloid, but that also lets them get away with saying some things the others won't touch.

    Also keep in mind that things look very different from two years on than they did in the first months.  Go and re-read whatever contemporaneous source you like, as long as you are sure they aren't retconning the articles, for a reminder of what it looked and felt like.

    And also, even if half the dead aren't really dead from chinaflu, it's still a big damn number and everyone knows someone who has been affected or died.

    n

  76. Nick Flandrey says:

    I'm looking at the stuff on the amazon outlet pages, specifically the tool and home category.

    It's a lot of chinese 'almost' brand names that are super cheap and cheesy copies of better products.  It's a lot of the exact items I see in the returns auctions, ie. once you get it in your hand you send that shite right back….

    The name brand tools look good though.

    n

    btw, if you can’t tell the difference by looking, check out the text in the description.

    “Our water sharpening stone is HAND STICKY not like other machine suppression, so our stone not only have a much more precise grit but also very durable. Besides, we REINFORCED bamboo base and package to prevent damage during transportation.”

  77. Nick Flandrey says:

    WRT the 80,000 pound figure and the trucker website.   I guess they'd know, but every truck Ive ever loaded, and I've loaded hundreds, had 80K in cargo.  I've got an overweight ticket somewhere in my old touring stuff, where I missed it by less than 100 pounds.

    n

    Or my brain could be turning to mush.  But I'd have bet money on it.

    Yep, brain turning to mush. Got the total confused with the cargo. The scale ticket was for 80,060 iirc.

    Driver made sure he was running with empty tanks for the next scale.
    n

  78. Jenny says:

    @Greg

    "Jackass Forever" wasn't playing at your theater?

    I’ve got standards. They’re admittedly low but I’ve got ‘em -laughter-

    It’s difficult to relax at home. I grew up taught that rest comes after work is done.  Problem is I never seem to be ‘done’. If the kitchen is clean, there’s laundry. Or clutter to put away. Or a walkway to shovel. Or a box to unpack. Or… you get the idea. It’s awful. I can immerse myself in learning something new and treasure those opportunities, works more effectively in morning than night. Sitting and watching a movie at home is near impossible for me. Flaw in me, don’t know how to change it. Drives my poor husband batty. 
     

    That being said, I’m going to make time for Reacher!

    Circle K was next to the pasture of my pony growing up. She was my ‘bicycle’ for my paper route. On weekdays the papers went in my carrier bag slung over her back. She trotted down the center of the street while I dashed back and forth, porching the papers. Sunday the paper was triple sized. I harnessed her to a cart and rode in style atop the papers. 
    Our Sunday reward was a stop at Circle K for a shared Old Fashioned donut and styrofoam cup of hot chocolate. 
     

    She Houdini’d her way out of her pasture numerous times. She would chill in front of Circle K until someone was careless with the double doors. She’d nose the door open and clomp around, looking for her treats. 
     

    My father was called numerous times to come get our (expletive deleted) horse…

    The Circle K is still there, dingy but largely unchanged 40+ years later. Pasture is long paved with a hardware store where her stable was.

  79. Kenneth C Mitchell says:

    Lynn; I mentioned that a Starlink terminal was WiFi only, but that you could order an ethernet connecter?  Their original claim was that it would be sent in May. 

    I got an email saying that it was shipped today.  🙂

    3
  80. Kenneth C Mitchell says:

    RickH; there was a message I was trying to send yesterday and the day before, and it never would go through. Subject was Starlink.

    Was I doing something weird there?

    Thanks. 

  81. lynn says:

    Lynn; I mentioned that a Starlink terminal was WiFi only, but that you could order an ethernet connecter?  Their original claim was that it would be sent in May. 

    I got an email saying that it was shipped today. 

    Please let us know how well it works.

  82. lynn says:

    Started watching “Reacher” on Prime.

    Me like it!

    At the airport. Viva Las Vegas!

    Pretty good !  Where did they find the hulk ?

  83. EdH says:

    It’s difficult to relax at home. I grew up taught that rest comes after work is done.  Problem is I never seem to be ‘done’. If the kitchen is clean, there’s laundry. Or clutter to put away. Or a walkway to shovel. Or a box to unpack. Or… you get the idea. ….. Sitting and watching a movie at home is near impossible for me….

    Yep.  for me I find that mornings are best used for in the yard and around the house chores, noon to six is best for the office work and programming, in theory the evening is relaxation, tv & movies – but I don’t think I’ve watched an entire movie at home this year. 

Comments are closed.