Mon. July 15, 2019 – half way through the year

Hot and humid, close to 81F. We never did get much rain from Barry, but I think the mid-South/ Mississippi basin is going to get some in the coming days. Flash flood warnings for that area are in effect.

With prepping, it’s easy to get focused on a specific event. Many times it’s what Bruce Schneier calls a ‘movie plot’ event, ie one that makes for good drama, but isn’t likely in real life. The canonical one is the zombie apocalypse. Most of us know that’s unlikely in the extreme, but it’s a funny idea, takes some of the stress out of thinking about the end of the world as we know it, and if you’re prepped for that, you’re prepped for most of the more likely events.

That is how most prepping works anyway. Prep for something real bad, and you are also prepared for the less bad. This is true (for the most part) even if you focus very narrowly on one specific threat.

The most likely threats in your area should be your first
consideration. Then threats that you can cover by extending your preps a bit. It’s also a good idea to cover threats that are rare but the consequences are extreme, especially those that are cheap or easy to prep for. An example might be CME. If you are storing extra radios or electronics anyway, it’s only a little bit more effort (called marginal effort by economists) to put them in a metal enclosure, or Faraday cage. That covers you for the CME, or an EMP caused by an enemy, and protects your electronics from dust and vermin. There really isn’t a downside to taking the extra step.

Look for ways to leverage your existing preps and extend them a bit to cover additional threats. For that matter, think of prepping as a way to extend you existing lifestyle… if you camp, you extend to more gear and more skills. If you garden, or can, or sew- take it a step further. You’ve already used the resources to get you this far, it’s easy to go just a bit more…

Keep stacking,

nick

44 thoughts on “Mon. July 15, 2019 – half way through the year”

  1. This is what yesterday’s FEMA summary had to say about Barry….

    Tropical Storm Barry – Gulf Coast

    Lifeline Impacts:

    Safety and Security:
    • LA: Evacuations: Mandatory: 7 (+3) Parishes; Voluntary: 9 (-3) Parishes
    • Bus evacuation contracts activated; additional buses pre-staged
    • LA: 118 of the 120 pumps in New Orleans are operational
    • Levees in lower Plaquemines, Terrebonne, and St. Mary’s Parishes experienced
    minor to major overtopping; structural risks not anticipated; mandatory evacuations
    in effect for Terrebonne

    Food, Water, and Sheltering:

    • LA: Shelters: 23 (+8) open / 298 (+257) occupants
    • MS: 1 (-2) shelter open with 15 (+7) occupants; 10 shelters on stand-by (ARC Shelter
    Count as of 6:44 am EDT)
    • Staggered delivery of 2.7M liters water and 1.4M meals to ISB Roseland begins
    today. Schedule: Sunday and Monday 1.2M liters water and 615k meals; Tuesday
    375k meals and 600k liters of water; Wednesday 455k meals and 820k liters water
    • Grocers and retail Industry partners executing business continuity plans; working to
    reroute shipments around affected routes and hubs

    Health and Medical:

    • 262 hospitals fully operational; 22 on generators with no fuel concerns;
    generators used only as precaution to prevent power surge
    • 4 HHS Region 6 Regional Incident Support Teams (RIST) members
    deployed to FEMA Region VI
    • TX: 2 DMATs (CA-9 and PA-1), with 2 DMAT Caches, deployed to
    Dallas Ft. Worth Staging Area

    Energy*:

    • LA: 154k (peak 163k) customers without power
    • MS: 6.4k (peak) customers without power statewide
    • TX: 3k (peak 16k) customers without power statewide
    • No retail gas station outages or supply chain disruptions
    • Pre-staged utilities crews, equipment, and materials in potentially
    impacted areas. Mutual assistance networks activated to support
    restoration efforts
    • USACE Type IV temp power package planning and response team
    (management only) in Baton Rouge, LA

    Transportation:

    • Air: New Orleans airport remains open; no flight delays (Flight Aware, FAA)
    • Sea: All LA ports closed; ports in MS/TX remain open; vessel traffic
    closed along portions of the Mississippi River
    • Rail: Passenger & Cargo adjusting service in storm affected area

  2. This is what yesterday’s FEMA summary had to say about Barry….

    Typical Cat 1 hurricane. Thank God.

    Though, I’m sure many in the media are disappointed that they won’t be able to spin another gas shortage narrative for the Labor Day Weekend.

  3. Yeah, and what does it say about us that we go “eh, cat 1,” and move on?

    n

  4. Yeah, and what does it say about us that we go “eh, cat 1,” and move on?

    I’m from Florida. Cat 1 doesn’t even move the needle.

    The eye never got the sharp contrast necessary for a wind/storm surge disaster. Barry was going to be about rain and speed. I’m glad I don’t have to think about those things anymore, however.

    Even a place as messed up as New Orleans learned from Katrina.

  5. Ebola continues to spread and kill people…

    Ebola has spread to the Congolese city of Goma, which has a population of more than a million people, as the virus continues to devastate the region.

    The victim is a pastor who had arrived in the city by bus after visiting Butembo, a town around 200miles (320km) north in the centre of the outbreak.

    He had been preaching at a church where he would have touched worshippers ‘including the sick’, the country’s health ministry said on Sunday.

    Authorities have urged people to remain calm after the government said the chances of the virus spreading were ‘low’.

    But tensions are high and two health workers were murdered in their homes over the weekend.”

    They are trying to ‘ring’ vaccinate around his contacts. Good luck with that. Seriously.

    n


  6. Typical Cat 1 hurricane.

    A lot of the hype comes from government officials for two reasons. 1) They want to get their face on the news, especially from local officials who want to improve their political standing. 2) From officials who want to keep the population scared then claim they were Johnny-on-the-spot and saved everyone’s lives.

    News stations are even worse. All driven by ratings. After the event they all claim to be the first, with the most, most accurate, most reporters, more anything the stations can devise. Reporters with visions of CNN exposure dancing in their feeble brains.

  7. A lot of the hype comes from government officials for two reasons.

    I understand the hype from government officials to a certain point. People are reluctant to evacuate and face the possibility of not being able to return to their homes for a week like what typically happens when storms hit the FL barrier islands. Plus, in a busy season, a certain numbness sets in which will make people tend not to take a Cat 1/2 seriously and many fail to prep for possibility of 3-4 days in their (mostly intact) homes without power.

    Near the end of his term in FL, Jeb! didn’t hype one minor storm enough in the minds of a lot of media, and when someone asked about what he was going to do for all the people who were in their homes without power for 24-48 hours, Governor Bush responded that the state officials would do what they could but he thought everyone living in FL had a couple of days of canned goods at home.

    Racist.

    The hype I don’t get is predictions of gas shortages the moment the “cone” of a tropical storm or Cat 1 crosses the coast of Texas or Louisiana.

  8. _Stranded: Iced_ by Theresa Shaver
    https://www.amazon.com/Stranded-Iced-Theresa-Shaver/dp/1989375006/?tag=ttgnet-20

    Book number six of a six book apocalyptic series. I read the well printed and bound POD (print on demand) trade paperback. This is the last book in this series per the author. She is working on two other series at the moment.

    This is the first series written by the author, a Canadian in Alberta. She starts the first book with a large group of Canadian kids in Los Angeles for a trip to Disneyworld. During their stay in LA, an EMP event happens and cripples the USA and Canada. This is the story of the kids getting back to Canada and what they find there. The story is harsh, perilous, and devastating. Yet the toughness of the kids to get home is encouraging.

    The author has a website at:
    http://theresashaver.com/

    My rating: 4 out of 5 stars (I gave the first book 5 stars)
    Amazon rating: 4.6 out of 5 stars (12 reviews)

  9. A lot of the hype comes from government officials for two reasons.

    Let’s not forget the condescension.

    Listening to Mayor Latoya Cantrell addressing the citizenry of New Orleans in re plans for Barry was like being lectured at by your kindergarten teacher who doesn’t think you’re too bright.

    Of course, given the intelligence level of your typical New Orleanian, maybe she was onto something.

  10. She starts the first book with a large group of Canadian kids in Los Angeles for a trip to Disneyworld.

    Disney World is FL. That’s a long walk back to Canada. 🙂

  11. Millennial Writer Cries for Mother at Work When Editor Corrects Her Spelling

    Good Lord.

    This doesn’t appear to be satire or a hoax.

    From the article, concerning a similar incident:

    I asked a colleague about it, and he relayed a story about the time he gave an early 20something feedback on a writing assignment.

    The young man quit the next day and had his parents call to tell him what a terrible boss he was for “correcting work that didn’t need corrected.” [emphasis added]

    Don’t nobody teach good English no more?

  12. She starts the first book with a large group of Canadian kids in Los Angeles for a trip to Disneyworld.

    Disney World is FL. That’s a long walk back to Canada.

    Eeep ! The kids were at Disneyland ! Oops.

    Thanks for the catch. And that is still a long walk. Or a long sail.


  13. Let’s not forget the condescension.

    They are all better than us mere peons. We are their humble servants, must obey them, must financially reward them for giving us hope, providing instructions and keeping their Mighty Mouse (Here I am to Save the Day) syndrome alive.

    However some people are so incredibly dumb they do need detailed instructions as these people do not function when left on their own.

    As for me I cringe when I see the mayor or state politician show at an event, be it a disaster or some natural event. As if them inspecting the damage is going to change anything. It is all political grandstanding.

    Especially egregious when dealing some social issue (kid denied an extra helping at lunch because they are six months behind in paying). Or some racially motivated event. Have to show the serfs that their mighty leader is not a racist.

    I also get annoyed when these people say something to the effect “All Tennesseans …”. Bullshirt(-r). Don’t speak for me or thousands of others.

  14. The hype I don’t get is predictions of gas shortages the moment the “cone” of a tropical storm or Cat 1 crosses the coast of Texas or Louisiana.

    Most people keep less than a half tank of fuel in their vehicle(s). When everyone rushes to fill up, the surge of gasoline out of the gas station tanks is simply amazing. But the refinery and jobber tanks (often tens of millions of gallons each) can handle the swing. What they cannot handle is the additional gas station tank fillups unless those gas stations are on pipelines (some are !, most are not). So the gas stations may be low or out of gasoline but the supply system is not. And if the gas station tankers are having trouble getting out to their gas stations from the jobbers, oh boy ! That was the situation that we had after Hurricane Ike in the Houston metroplex.

  15. Most people keep less than a half tank of fuel in their vehicle(s). When everyone rushes to fill up, the surge of gasoline out of the gas station tanks is simply amazing.

    The figure I’ve heard repeatedly about Labor Day Weekend 2017 is attributed to the Railroad Commissioner — gasoline sales in Central Texas were 50x the normal volume for that holiday period.

    Buc-ee’s pumps were dry in New Braunfels when we drove by, and their gas buying is sequestered here, deliberately kept away from the retail operation HQ in Lake Jackson.

    Fortunately, I worked in Belton, far enough north that the Clear Channel radio station in San Antonio which I blame for creating the problem is right on the edge of reception.

  16. “If the Democratic party continues to fracture as it slides further to the left, Jeb Bush might even have a chance in 2024.”

    They forgot the ‘!’ in Jeb!.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-15/aoc-and-snot-nosed-punk-chief-staff-alienating-moderate-democrats-helping-trump

    Don’t get too excited. Tyler Durden is a pseudonym on Zero Hedge used by contributors when they don’t want to sign their actual name. Too many Dems still want to have sex with the cocktail waitress, and crossing the “snot nosed punk” still has consequences for journalists and members of both parties … at least inside the Beltway.

    And everyone in FL knows that Jeb! doesn’t want to give up his ex-Playboy Bunny girlfriend to look at Columba for eight years. That was the problem in 2016.

  17. And everyone in FL knows that Jeb! doesn’t want to give up his ex-Playboy Bunny girlfriend to look at Columba for eight years. That was the problem in 2016.

    Then why did he run ? Doesn’t matter, the Bush name is a little sullied nowadays. I would vote for Jeb in a heartbeat over AOC though. I figure that he would be much better than Jimmy Carter on any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

  18. Then why did he run ? Doesn’t matter, the Bush name is a little sullied nowadays. I would vote for Jeb in a heartbeat over AOC though. I figure that he would be much better than Jimmy Carter on any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

    Jeb! is done in FL. The press in the state is currenly running stories reminding everyone about the Terry Schiavo mess thanks to the judge in the case retiring and making the media rounds. That case pretty much sank Bush’s chances of running for the Senate seate which Little Marco eventually won.

    (Oh, yeah, he gave us Little Marco too.)

    Jeb! ran for President because it was expected. He was supposed to be the brother who ran in 2000, but “Walkin’ Lawton” (Governor Chiles) pulled out getting reelected as FL Governor in 1994 using some dirty phone bank tricks in … Broward! … and that delayed the family plan long enough for “W” to prove that he was sticking to his 12 steps and that being elected TX Governor wasn’t a fluke.

    Either way would have given us Gulf War II but maybe a different approach to occupation in Iraq. Jeb! is the smarter brother.

    Gov. DeSantis will run as at least VP if he stays smart with the next two legislative regular sessions and accomplishes getting re-elected to the FL Governor’s Mansion by a fraud-proof margin, proving he can carry Florida.

  19. There isn’t any crazy like “A Florida Man” crazy.

    My neighbor in college donated the anaconda which currently resides (formerly resided?) in the Oklahoma City Zoo. His aunt, “A Florida Woman” smuggled the snake into the country inside a sock in the late 80s, and didn’t realize what she had until the snake started getting *big*.

    https://www.orlandosentinel.com/features/gone-viral/os-ne-ginormica-20-foot-python-world-record-20190715-dtmjfhstwnflfatu4b23strqra-story.html

  20. I’m going thru the speakers I’ve picked up over the last few months and testing them, so I can list them all at once.

    I’m driving them with a vintage Pioneer amp.

    I forget how good music sounds on decent sized speakers. None are bigger than “bookshelf” with the B&W and Warfedales being the biggest at about 14 inches tall, but man they sound good. The B&Ws are open and airy, the Warfedales are punchy and need more volume to get good highs and upper mids, the Klipsch are a bit harsh, lacking in low mid (as the best modern pair, they are designed for a sub to handle the bass duties), and the little TEACs need a LOT of driving as they are the least efficient of the bunch. I’ve got 3 ‘name’ center channel speakers too, and they sound pretty good on general music, except the Mirage, it’s a bit buzzy but it’s the smallest too.

    I realized I have been listening to a lot of music on youtube, and I should probably up my speaker game here in the office. I’ve got my choice of AV receivers from client upgrades and a couple from thrift stores or estate sales. I’m thinking of keeping one set of speakers and using an AV receiver to drive them. The Pioneer is part of a component set and will be sold with the other pieces. It’s “Blue Line” which is supposed to be pretty good. Sounds sweet to me, but I want some more ins and outs.

    My current setup is a set of the best little powered desktop speakers Acoustic Research made in 1990. All metal construction, and heavy magnets, they sound good and have some low end, but they are small after all. It would be nice to rock out once in a while….

    n

  21. I got enough old albums from my mom’s house, I’m even trying to figure out where to put a turntable….

    n

    after all, I”ve got two kids to raise up right…


  22. A lot of the hype comes from government officials for two reasons……..

    Their watchword is: “Don’t let a crisis go to waste.”


  23. As for me I cringe when I see the mayor or state politician show at an event, be it a disaster or some natural event. As if them inspecting the damage is going to change anything. It is all political grandstanding.

    Total Fraud. Remember when Obamanous would be filmed in a factory (like a now closed and bankrupt solar energy facility) with his suit coat off, necktie loosened up and sleeves rolled up as if he was working.

  24. My current setup is a set of the best little powered desktop speakers Acoustic Research made in 1990. All metal construction, and heavy magnets, they sound good and have some low end, but they are small after all. It would be nice to rock out once in a while….

    I have a pair of Dayton Research bookshelf speakers on the desk in the home office driven by one of the last cheap TA2020-based amps made before Tripath went bust.

    The speakers were simply cheap and fit in the space. The Tripath is my baby.

  25. Absolutely freaking crazy.

    Can you imagine resetting 20 of these monsters ?

    Trump defanged CAFE. Maybe he can do something about the light bulb insanity.

  26. [snip] after all, I”ve got two kids to raise up right… [snip]

    Earlier this year, my younger sister told me that she & her husband mentioned Mick
    Jagger’s cardiac problems to their youngest (22 year old) daughter. Sally said “Who?” My sister’s comment was that they’ve failed as parents!

  27. Hah, I disparagingly call that ‘geezer rock’. The kids hear the Beatles and wonder what the big deal was. I can’t explain it because I don’t get it either. I think they’re a bunch of mediocre musicians who F’d up a good thing with mysticism and narcissism in equal doses.

    All the country rock of the late 60’s is gonna be hard to explain too.

    Not so hard to let them find Led Zepplin and the Who, those guys speak to kids. Well, certain kinds of kids. But King Crimson? Nah.

    n

  28. Wait, wait, what?? Mexico has gun violence? BBBBUUuutTTTttt guns are banned there!!11 And I thought it was an insult to mention that there were gangsters, murderers, criminals in mexico?? WTF Daily Mail, you can’t call them that!

    “Chilling moment armed gangsters shoot and seriously wound two cops in an ambush outside a taco shop in Mexico’s most dangerous state

    Two cops assigned to the Criminal Investigation Agency in the Mexican state of Guanajuato were seriously wounded during a shooting Thursday
    CCTV outside a taco shop in the city of Irapuato registered the moment three suspects step off a SUV and fired at the cops who were inside their pickup truck
    Both cops were taken to a local hospital and were listed in a critical condition
    Guanajuato was listed the most dangerous state in Mexico as recent data showed 1,763 homicides were registered in the first six months of 2019″

    Watch the video. Coming to america, from any number of different aggressors. How would you respond if you were in the white minivan? How about in the shop? Walking by?

    n

  29. These two I’m just not gonna go there….

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-7249913/Pampers-features-black-father-baby-new-box.html (ok, I lied, what is the thing, that a black man might be a father to his child? Or that people are on the packaging? I don’t remember ever seeing humans on the package, adults anyway.)

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7248009/Black-model-beaten-left-broken-leg-white-boyfriend-knocked-out.html

    Um, I’ve lived with a south african, and worked for another, and something isn’t right with this story. These peoples’ concerns and statements aren’t natural or normal. Maybe it’s the part about “asking them to explain their remarks”, ‘cuz that sounds just like a lie. I’m tentatively voting for ‘mutual combat’ until I see a video. Or “I can handle 3, but not 5, 7, or more…” again, sounds like booze talking, and I’d like to see the video.

    n

  30. Earlier this year, my younger sister told me that she & her husband mentioned Mick Jagger’s cardiac problems to their youngest (22 year old) daughter. Sally said “Who?”

    And how many of us could name any of the so-called “musical talent” of today? (Beyonce and Ariana Grande don’t count; they’re more notorious for their politics and stupid human tricks than their “art.” How many of their songs would anyone here recognize? Fair’s fair. 🙂 )

  31. Hah, I disparagingly call that ‘geezer rock’. The kids hear the Beatles and wonder what the big deal was. I can’t explain it because I don’t get it either. I think they’re a bunch of mediocre musicians who F’d up a good thing with mysticism and narcissism in equal doses.

    You forgot the drugs.

  32. And how many of us could name any of the so-called “musical talent” of today?

    I pick up new music from time to time, but most of it comes from UK acts.

    The record companies in the US have definitely stopped trying and are content to pocket streaming royalties from the last five decades of material in their vaults.

  33. adblock Plus – just disabled it. It was making my browser unusable. I’m on Firefox 68.0 I don’t know if it’s because of changes in the back-end of Firefox or something in ABP, but it’s gone.

    I’m still using Ghostery. Works great.

  34. adblock Plus – just disabled it. It was making my browser unusable. I’m on Firefox 68.0 I don’t know if it’s because of changes in the back-end of Firefox or something in ABP, but it’s gone.

    The LTS of Ubuntu doesn’t have Firefox 68 yet. At least, I haven’t seen 68 on the Pop OS! install I run on my 2007 MacBook Pro.

    Something must be up.

  35. MrsAtoz and I listen to the 60’s a lot on sat while traveling. You know, where you could hear and understand the lyrics.

  36. And how many of us could name any of the so-called “musical talent” of today?

    When all you hear is the last part of a song that isn’t rap or jungle and then four or five minutes of commercials, a couple of minutes of so-called DJs (that never say what just played) spouting noise and more commercials, why bother turning the car radio on?

    Yeah, I know some folks like the stuff. I’m not nuts about 40’s and 50’s music and forget Muzak.

    Not a big fan of country. Don’t care for the local oldie station, it’s just noise. KLBJ-FM changed their aim and I can’t get it anymore. The problem might be that one radio but all of them? Same for 97.5 out of Waco.

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