Thur. Mar. 29, 2018 – well, this week is gone…

60F with a bit of misty drizzle left, although skies seem to be clearing. Got over 2 inches last night with some thunder and lightning. You’d have thought it was the Deluge by some of the overreaction in media. The Mayor’s office tweeted out reassurances that this was just normal weather in Houston and pointed the anxious to the crisis hotline. Jeez, we have a mental health crisis hotline for weather anxiety?

Most of Tx, and probably the South will be off tomorrow, or working as little as possible. Three day holiday weekend, so this week is pretty much done.

People in the markets seem to be waking up to the clothesless emperor. Looking at the charts from the last collapse, it took a year to fully take effect. There were short rallies within the overall decline too. Could be this is finally the long predicted “correction.” Note that a big drop in value is called a “correction.” I think that is telling on a deep level, ie. the lower level is the ‘correct’ one. Denninger has more but basically, the biggest drivers of the increase in value of the stock indexes don’t make money. Most of them also don’t have much room to grow, and a couple are embroiled in scandal. That doesn’t bode well for their long term stock prices. Financial engineering and a general desire to stay in and make every last dime have propped up the markets. That can’t continue forever either.

Along those lines, I see price deflation in my shopping cart too. Maple syrup, smoked salmon, hams- all lower in price than last year.

BTW, even if you personally don’t hold any stocks, and don’t have any retirement money, there are millions of other Americans who do. Insurance, pensions, IRAs, 401ks, and money market savings accounts will all be affected by a market “correction.” If it’s bad enough, the institutions have to sell into the market, making it even worse. Banks and insurers can fail, putting depositor’s money at risk and wiping out shareholders. Nothing about now is better than it was in 2008…

and with that,

time to start the day.

nick