Thur. May 28, 2020 – more storms

Wet and windy.

Yesterday was a mix of rain and storms with nice sunny blue sky and cool breezes. Lot of rain and wind though.

And the trunk I left open to dry out after I left it open through a storm?? Yep. Left it open through a storm again. I hope it will be dry at some point today.

Didn’t get much done on the bigger projects but I did do some more work on a couple of smaller things. Didn’t end up going to my client’s house yesterday but will be out there later today.

My wife decided that we needed to proceed with some sort of above the ground temporary pool. Only problem is, they are sold out everywhere. EXCEPT— in my auctions. Amazon returns and damaged in shipping auctions had several of the Intex pools. I ended up buying one, 15ft x 42″ high. After fees and taxes it was slightly more than list price- for an open box I didn’t inspect. I figure I can MacGiver around any issues. One other pool went for $100 more than mine, and the last one went for $200 more than mine. It is a seller’s market for above ground pools at the moment. Funny thing is, I picked up a pump/filter a couple of auctions ago thinking it could be a gross filter for my “water tank” inflatable kiddie pool, and I got 3 filters for it too. So even if the filter part of the set is missing, I’ve got it covered.

I’ll be doing pickups at four auctions today before heading over to my client’s house. They had another power outage, and half the stuff is offline, plus AT&T should be there to fix the DSL. The auctions were for some tactical accessories and camping stuff, toilet paper (don’t need it, but figured if I could restock with a good brand, I might as well), the pool, and a weird mix of photography LED lighting and backdrops and a couple of antennas.

The ‘weird mix’ auction seller is new to me. They are perhaps the second worst at it I’ve ever come across. Their pictures suck, what few there are, and their descriptions are all the same- general merchandise. By looking at all the listings, I could tell what some of the unidentified items were despite the bad pix and no description. If the stuff is actually there in the lots, I might have done really well. 20 lots for $109 is great pricing. The two antennas would have been most of that, and I got a bunch of other useful stuff, including practice arrows! The photography stuff should help me get better pix for my new listings. Turns out there is a whole slew of photo lighting and backdrop stuff aimed directly at youtubers. You wouldn’t think that would be a big enough market, but you’d be wrong. It is super cheap cr@p but should be fine for the limited use I’m putting it to.

One of the items in with all the tactical stuff was a marine rescue rope in a throw bag. We were talking about swimming the other day. I didn’t mention that I have self inflating life vests in my truck, and now I’ll have a rescue throw rope too. I’m not a strong swimmer, so I prep…

Dinner was frozen hamburger patties from 2017, and a couple of skewers of frozen shrimp. I opened a jar of sweet peppers I ‘cold canned’ a few years ago. They’ve been un-opened in the fridge this whole time. They are crunchy and delicious. The commercial jar of pickled beets from a couple of years ago is starting to fade, and the beets are maybe a little softer than originally, but they are still tasty and good eating.

I found two more buckets of bulk in the garage, one 25# bucket of salt, and one 25# bucket of flour from 2017. The salt is fine for sure, and I don’t want to break the seal on the flour, so I’m just putting it back on the shelf. That HAS to be all the food in the garage at this point. I don’t have that much more area to go through.

—————————————————————————–

In the wider world, China is pushing India AND Hong Kong. And, at the same time, locking down new cities because of new wuflu outbreaks. There are so many ways this can go wrong.

Russia is getting frisky in the air with our pilots.

There seem to be some riots going on from the usual crew, for the usual reasons in MN and LA. If it spreads like it did a few summers ago, things will be getting sporty soon. Avoid crowds. Make sure you can get out of one if you get caught up.

And people all over the US have lost their dang minds. For now, I’m going to let someone else poke their finger into the flame to see if flames are still hot. I’m holding steady (although I admit to looking at auctions again, and doing the pickups – curbside.) We should know in just a couple of weeks what effect the changes in restrictions will have, if any. I’ll reassess my stance then.

Nothing I see is changing my mind that things are going to get a lot worse before they start to get better. Keep stacking. Don’t let fatigue make you lower your guard.

nick

Author: Nick Flandrey

Mid 50s, stay at home dad, with two elementary school age girls. Love my family and my life.

72 thoughts on “Thur. May 28, 2020 – more storms”

  1. I have seen the first three Jeffery Epstein episodes on Netflix. They constantly show pictures of him with Trump, even though The Donald threw him out of and banned him from Mara Lago for various misbehaviors.

  2. Russia is getting frisky in the air with our pilots.

    That’s an old game.

    If you’re referring to the P8 patrol plane, it is a new aircraft, and the Russians probably got curious as soon as the details popped on the classification display — a 737 in international airspace without a civilian transponder. As we learned the hard way over the last 30 years, the Islamic nutters like to turn civilian aircraft into cruise missiles.

    The Russians sent new-ish planes to investigate so the US got some good intel/pictures too. What flies out of where. Weapons. Radar at full strength.

    No one in the US or Russia really wants a shooting event with the other side except “Bat Guano”/Vindman types.

  3. If was a corporate decision maker for a company like Target, CVS, Walgreens, etc. I would close all the stores in the thug areas in Minneapolis. Immediately. And never put another store in the areas. Too much risk when something happens the thugs don’t like and take the law into their own hands. Destroying property, looting, beating up people is not going to solve the issue. But these low life thugs think otherwise because they are not normal.


  4. Turns out there is a whole slew of photo lighting and backdrop stuff aimed directly at youtubers. You wouldn’t think that would be a big enough market, but you’d be wrong.

    If we could get more YTers who film recipes with their phones to buy a tripod, the angels would sing. They go to all kinds of trouble and then try to do everything one-handed.

    But yep, there are a lot of us out there. It’s fun and I love the people in our little corner of YouTube. I don’t use backdrops for my videos (I like to show off my cute house LOL) but lighting can help. For a while, I had two shoplights clipped to the baker’s rack. We replaced the ceiling light with a hanging fixture that I put LEDs in and there’s good light now.

  5. 2 thoughts from yesterday…

    I’ve been in the ER with an asthma attack. I certainly didn’t have the ability to engage the nurse in a debate around the nuances between “I can’t breathe” and “Excuse me but I’m having a spot of bother breathing, could I possibly impose on you to remove your knee from my neck”. The follow up actions by the protesters are just as indefensible as the cop’s actions.

    Second, I’ve been running some stats on the publicly available COVID-19 figures, basically comparing number of deaths to the population. Here’s the summary from yesterday:
    Texas: 0.005%
    NY: 0.152%
    USA: 0.030%
    Sweden: 0.042%
    Brazil: 0.012%

    Interesting. Horrible in NY.

    I’m sure I read that the death rate in Sweden was awful because of the lack of social distancing. Also, T just banned travel from Brazil and their death rate is lower than the USA.

    San Antonio has had 70 deaths and the mayor insists we follow his guidelines. At least he admits they are guidelines now. More than 70 people live on my street.

  6. @pecancorner, I’m really surprised by the popularity of ring lights. They had very specific uses in most photography, and now they are everywhere! I got one at a previous auction for $6. It was missing a power supply. The fact you can dial the color temp, and brightness is pretty cool. I’ll have lots of stands after I pick up my 3 backdrop support kits today, and one or two additional ring lights. I’ll be able to set up a mini studio on the kitchen table.

    Good bright photos are essential for ebay listings. I’ve been doing most of my photos in the garage, on top of my chest freezer. I have a light beige roller shade that I pull down to use as a backdrop, and one overhead fluorescent. With the door open I get good fill light. The pix look ok, and bright and even but not as good as they could.

    When I have something bigger, I put it on the kitchen table with a plain wall in the background. LED can lights for down light, with a big window for side/fill. My phone cam has trouble getting the color balance right under those conditions.

    In the last few days, I’ve got a 2ft cube photo box for small objects, the ring light, and now the background stands and more ring light. I’m hoping the ring lights will mount on the bg stands, like normal photo equipment. If not, I’ll rig something.

    It’s all so cheap and flimsy compared to real photo equipment, but it also won’t get the abuse or use that studio gear traditionally gets.

    We’ll see I guess, I will get to put some of my studio lighting training to work.

    n

  7. @mark, the problem with Brazil’s numbers are that they are fantasy, like China’s numbers. Now that people are aware of covid, everyone has a reason to mess with the numbers, and they are. Some want more, some want less, some just don’t have the ability to count or a culture of accuracy.

    “How many turnips do you see?”
    “One”
    “Now?
    “One Two”
    “Now?”
    “One, two, lots”

    n

  8. I have seen the first three Jeffery Epstein episodes on Netflix. They constantly show pictures of him with Trump, even though The Donald threw him out of and banned him from Mara Lago for various misbehaviors.

    Showing Trump and Epstein have some ties is the whole point of the series.

    Trump likes *women*, not girls. He’s completely open about it. No great mystery there which frustrates the media. The crusade to tie Trump to pedophilia is pointless — they know this — but Orange Man bad. Nothing else matters.

    To be fair, though, I think Bubba Clinton also likes real women. To him, Epstein was about the party and, potentially, money. The Republicans are engaging in an equally pointless crusade trying to tie Bubba to pedophilia through Epstein.

  9. @nick agree. We can trust the numbers from USA, Canada, and western Europe. Not much else. Most of Africa doesn’t have a good count of the population let alone how many people died of this disease. China is the most egregious liar, and most other countries are either distorting the numbers or just don’t know.

  10. For something completely different, look at how times have changed– you never saw a headline like this a couple of years ago, after 8 years of hearing about how stylish and beautiful Michele (I finally love my country) Obamma was no matter what your lying eyes told you….

    Out of this world! Ivanka wears $1,800 sundress and a matching floral face mask to attend Elon Musk’s historic SpaceX launch with mini-me daughter Arabella and son Joseph

    Not only that, it’s a flattering photo.

    n


  11. Trump likes *women*, not girls. He’s completely open about it. No great mystery there which frustrates the media. The crusade to tie Trump to pedophilia is pointless — they know this — but Orange Man bad. Nothing else matters.

    Even though I try to avoid social media, I’ve seen the comments by people saying “Trump was Epstein’s buddy too” completely missing the point.

  12. And people completely miss the reality that rich and famous people stand for photos with all sorts of other people, and often don’t even know who it is. When they do, they may have reasons for allowing the photo anyway.

    How many times have you thrown an arm around someone and smiled for a quick photo when asked?

    I’ve worked with some wealthy and some famous people and they’ll grin while engaging an enemy or rival, because that’s what you do. You don’t show your hand, or give reasons to take offense or escalate….

    FWIW, bubba seems to like them ‘full figured’, but anyone can have secret desires. And most people aren’t as blatant about liking barely pubescent teens as Epstein…

    Woody Allen anyone? With the added squick of a legal family relationship?

    Or a culture that supports the book Lolita or the subsequent movie? (although his forbidden lust destroys him in book and movie, iirc.)

    The thing I haven’t been able to figure out is where were these girls parents or guardians while they were hanging out with Epstein?

    n

  13. IIRC, Bubba was 55 and Lewinsky was 21 when they were doing their thing. Viewing from 55 there’s not much difference between 21 and 16.

    bubba seems to like them ‘full figured’

    That’s a reasonable objection, though.

    The thing I haven’t been able to figure out is where were these girls parents or guardians while they were hanging out with Epstein?

    Several had single parents (mother, with dad distant or not at all involved) and some had “busy” parents, according to a podcast I heard. I don’t know how badly slanted the podcast was; the guy clearly didn’t give the full story but I don’t know how he chose what to omit.

    It wouldn’t surprise me to learn that some of the parents (upward-aspirational mothers) knew what their daughters were doing and were ok with it. Way back when, I didn’t believe the pedo stories about Michael Jackson because it was incomprehensible to me that parents would deliver their young sons to him in exchange for “gifts”. Having been demonstrably wrong about that, a similar situation concerning another very rich man wouldn’t surprise me at all.

  14. I saw a great tshirt: “there is no ‘cloud’. There is only someone else’s computer”

    BTW did the back of the shirt say, “and it includes a subscription fee”?

  15. 8am and 80F already, headed to 106F. Yesterday the a/c ran all day but really couldn’t push the house lower than 77F. Turning it down early to try to keep it cooler. Not that I was uncomfortable but some around here complain. No idea what temp the pool is but feels great. Problem there is in the afternoon direct sun is intense and shade on the water is small.

  16. Dishwasher is leaking in the front. Replaced the gasket. No change. Time to get another dishwasher. I am not going to chase a leak.

  17. Batteries in my weather station are dead again. Until the tiny solar panel squeeks some charge back into them, I just have to guess at the temp. So I’m guessing “hot”.

    It occurs to me that the liberty movement has some issues. They say “teach your children well” and hope that at some future point, we’ll get back what we’ve lost. This morning I don’t think so.

    TWO generations, maybe 3 now, the kids have never known freedom or liberty as we did. They’ve grow up with the PC movement restricting their speech, constantly self- censoring. They’ve grow up with the other bully movements controlling acceptable behaviour and thought. They have been subject to surveillance and search their entire lives. They’ve only ever known a powerful Federal government. They’ve only ever known the police as a powerful and militarized force. They not only accept that regulation is proper, they embrace its power and use it against the ‘other’.

    If they do ever revolt or otherwise take power, they’re more likely to double down and use the tools that have been used on them their entire lives than they are to remove those things.

    Our founding fathers experience liberty in fact if not in principle by virtue of being so far away from their rulers. They had the chance to breathe free and make something of their own, before the power of the state got focused on them again. How would that ever happen for our children and grandchildren?

    n


  18. They’ve grow up with the PC movement restricting their speech, constantly self- censoring.

    WRT “speech”: Several years ago Cankles and her ilk referred to the demonstators that they did not like as “deplorables”. Will they refer in the same mode to those demonstrating in Mpls. yesterday?

  19. Not only that, it’s a flattering photo.

    Ivanka is Fear Masking properly in the pictures, coordinating with the outfit. Plus, the Daily Mail lost several million dollars to the Trumps in a settlement for a slander lawsuit a few years ago.

  20. I am not going to chase a leak.

    Ray,

    IIRC, antifreeze is fluorescent. Why not pour a quart in and run a cycle, then use an ultraviolet FLASHLIGHT. Might be something simple.

  21. Eeeeek, jim, just eeeeeeek!
    Don’t you know that putting antifreeze into the sewer system makes Baby Gaia cry??!!
    Never mind that the approved disposal method now, taking the dirty antifreeze to an auto supply store for recycling, is pretty well impossible. At least, I haven’t found any which would take it near two places that I’ve lived in the past ten or fifteen years, though in theory they’re required to have a system for taking it.

  22. FWIW, bubba seems to like them ‘full figured’, but anyone can have secret desires. And most people aren’t as blatant about liking barely pubescent teens as Epstein…

    Bubba likes to party, and Epstein had a private party island.

    I’ll ascribe many traits to the Clintons, but “pedo” isn’t among them.

  23. “The CDC’s New ‘Best Estimate’ Implies a COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate Below 0.3%”
    https://reason.com/2020/05/24/the-cdcs-new-best-estimate-implies-a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-below-0-3/

    “That rate is much lower than the numbers used in the horrifying projections that shaped the government response to the epidemic.”

    That number looks familiar:
    https://www.ttgnet.com/journal/2020/03/27/fri-mar-27-2020-still-plugging-away/#comment-179294

    Yup, it has been obvious to many of us for quite a while (except Aesop) that the fatality rate was much lower than initially projected. You were one of the first !

    Aesop is still claiming a 3% fatality rate which bothers me. He is obviously a very smart man but I do not follow his logic. And it would be nice if China would publish their real numbers instead of their day 15 numbers. Of course, China may not know their real numbers since they apparently burned and landfilled a large number of bodies.

    And the swamp in DC used a very high fatality rate to get Trump and the Governors to shut down the country. This smacks of a conspiracy to many people.

    I also note that Dr. Fauci has changed his tune about opening the country. I wonder if Trump is threatening to build a stocks in the back lawn of the White House and chain him to them so that people can walk by and vent their opinions of him.

  24. I also note that Dr. Fauci has changed his tune about opening the country. I wonder if Trump is threatening to build a stocks in the back lawn of the White House and chain him to them so that people can walk by and vent their opinions of him.

    Forget Fauci. He’s a swamp critter who doesn’t know any different.

    I want Bill Gates in the stocks. I have about 40 years of opinion to vent there starting with his random number algorithm running up through his vaccination fetish.


  25. antifreeze is fluorescent. Why not pour a quart in

    Toxic. Not going in a machine where my eating dishes occasionally find themselves.

  26. If you put a few cats in the dishwasher, they’ll lick up the antifreeze for you.

    (Kidding. I like cats. I like cats much better than I like most people, an admittedly low bar to hurdle.)

  27. If was a corporate decision maker for a company like Target, CVS, Walgreens, etc. I would close all the stores in the thug areas in Minneapolis. Immediately. And never put another store in the areas. Too much risk when something happens the thugs don’t like and take the law into their own hands. Destroying property, looting, beating up people is not going to solve the issue. But these low life thugs think otherwise because they are not normal.

    Isn’t Target based in Minneapolis ?

  28. 11am and it’s 94F. Just went out back and did some hand watering of pots. Probably do a second one about 4 this afternoon. House feels good as started cranking the a/c down early this morning. I just hate having to get PG&E out of bankruptcy.

  29. Toxic. Not going in a machine where my eating dishes occasionally find themselves.

    Better watch for that dihydrogen monoxide, too!

  30. Eeeeek, jim, just eeeeeeek!
    Don’t you know that putting antifreeze into the sewer system makes Baby Gaia cry??!!
    Never mind that the approved disposal method now, taking the dirty antifreeze to an auto supply store for recycling, is pretty well impossible. At least, I haven’t found any which would take it near two places that I’ve lived in the past ten or fifteen years, though in theory they’re required to have a system for taking it.

    Our local oil change places here in Texas are required to take used oil and used antifreeze. I am not sure about any other state.

  31. Yes, they’re required to take them here in NY, too. In practice, most will take oil but none (that I’ve found) will take antifreeze.


  32. Engineers and especially scientists may find some entertainment in this: How Science Fails

    I just employ The Grand Method Of Science in my endeavors.

  33. Hey, Rush is not a KOOK (keeper of odd knowledge) but, he knows many, many, many of them.

    Let’s say we discover the virus was engineered by the Chinese. What then?

    We’ve been pretty much at their mercy since Loral (big Clinton donor) taught them how to make their ICBMs work.

    How about a 100% tariff on Chinese goods ?

  34. I find it hard to believe that any complex system built by or maintained by chinese nationals would work effectively. Not that they aren’t smart enough, but they have cultural baggage that prevents the kind of things we learned how to do in order to keep complex systems working.

    -face culture
    -appearances more important than functions
    -preferences for ‘shiny’ over ‘works’

    n

    Systemology is something we’ve learned a bit about. Other places, not so much.

    n

  35. I’m really surprised by the popularity of ring lights. They had very specific uses in most photography, and now they are everywhere! I got one at a previous auction for $6. It was missing a power supply. The fact you can dial the color temp, and brightness is pretty cool.

    I hadn’t heard of ring lights before, went and looked them up. Interesting. Looks like they are tailor-made for people who use the phones as their “device”. It is amazing what kinds of things have become cheap in recent years.

    …. In the last few days, I’ve got a 2ft cube photo box for small objects, the ring light, and now the background stands and more ring light.

    You will love the tabletop set up if you haven’t had one before. We have a collapsible photo light box for Etsy/eBay listing photos that has lights on stands to surround it but they are older so are not ring lights. I replaced the LEDs in them last month, first time since Paul bought them maybe 15 years ago. The little stands are great, the legs fold up and fit into pockets on the back of the box after it is folded up and velcroed into one nice tidy flat portable package.

    Time to get another dishwasher.

    @Ray Thompson, Happy hunting! Repairman told me the other day that the controller is out on ours, so we will have to get a new dishwasher. I haven’t started looking yet, I need to actually look at them in person to make sure my dishes will fit into them.

  36. the page from march, keep scrolling down….

    Greg, thought this would be 5K dead total.

    Lynn, “pandemic that’s not a pandemic”

    etc.

    We are over 20X the number Greg was betting on…. and we’re still going strong.

    And it would be pretty hard to argue that it’s not a pandemic.

    Just sayin’….

    And now to risk infection again for nothing but filthy lucre.

    n

    added- and on cases with resolution, we’re still running 1 in 6 dead here in the US. I still maintain that if you get it, and get sick enough to need care, your odds are not good. Better than elsewhere, but 1 in 6 of dying….

  37. @Ray Thompson, Happy hunting! Repairman told me the other day that the controller is out on ours, so we will have to get a new dishwasher. I haven’t started looking yet, I need to actually look at them in person to make sure my dishes will fit into them.

    I put a Bosch 300 series in the old house last year. I liked the 3rd rack on top. The wife liked the quiet, you could barely hear it when it was on. Best Buy installed it for us too.
    https://www.bestbuy.com/site/bosch-300-series-24-recessed-handle-dishwasher-with-stainless-steel-tub-black/5710312.p

    The only thing that I did not like is that you had to turn on the heated dry air as the regular drying left the dishes soaking wet. That did not bother the wife, just me.

    If we ever sell the old house, I am going to put one in the new used house as the racks in the dishwasher that came with the house are disintegrating.

  38. I don’t think the quietness of appliances was much of a thing until we moved to this great room open floorplan that is so popular these days. Now that the dishwasher sits in pretty much the same “great room” in which you’re trying to watch TV or read – the noise is an issue. I get that open floor plans make everyone feel together and makes smaller homes seem larger, but I’ve never understand floor plans where I have to pause a movie because someone is using the blender or a guest at my front door has a straight line of sight to a sink full of dirty dishes.

  39. And now to risk infection again for nothing but filthy lucre.

    n

    added- and on cases with resolution, we’re still running 1 in 6 dead here in the US. I still maintain that if you get it, and get sick enough to need care, your odds are not good. Better than elsewhere, but 1 in 6 of dying….

    We risk a lot for filthy lucre. 35,000 people a year die from auto accidents in the USA, I wonder how many of those are on the job or commuting to work ?

    There is a big discussion about whether or not the SARS-COV-2 deaths are exclusively from the virus or did the person have the virus when they died ? I am suspecting both categories are applicable.

    I am seeing significant differences on what people see as to people having the virus without any symptoms, asymptomatic. The numbers that I have seen are 30%, 50%, and 90% of all infections. That tells me that we don’t understand the virus yet.

    And yes, stay out of the hospital. People die there. I have been in the hospital four times in the last eleven years, they have not killed me yet but they tried. Losing two pints of blood during surgery and losing a pint afterward is not good for you. Luckily I carry about a million pints in this huge body.

  40. We are over 20X the number Greg was betting on…. and we’re still going strong.

    I still think the number is bogus. Just because you are positive when you die, doesn’t mean you died of COVID. Counting the “flu” the same way would up the “death count” significantly. Most of the deaths are people at the “doorway” anyway.

    Look at what this nonsense has done to the country. Theaters are dead. I’m not wearing a “face covering” during a movie and theaters can’t make money by social distancing the capacity. Who is going to pay $30 for a movie? Vegas is dead unless casinos just say “frick it” and drop the social distancing (most Vegas casinos will open on June 4th with SD, mask optional). Going to the buffet: “That will be $50 due to SD.” Airlines are dying. The margins are just too thin. When our food supply and other JIT products and services start declining, who is going to decide where the stuff goes. The goobermint!

    /rant

    PS Hi, Mr. Lynn

  41. I don’t think the quietness of appliances was much of a thing until we moved to this great room open floorplan that is so popular these days. Now that the dishwasher sits in pretty much the same “great room” in which you’re trying to watch TV or read the noise is an issue. I get that open floor plans make everyone feel together and makes smaller homes seem larger, but I’ve never understand floor plans where I have to pause a movie become someone is using the blender or a guest at my front door has a straight line of sight to a sink full of dirty dishes.

    Yup. I have to pause the tv if the wife is doing anything in the kitchen with my tinnitus, even running the sink faucet overwhelms my ears. That is one reason why I like the bedroom tv so much.

  42. Look at what this nonsense has done to the country. Theaters are dead. I’m not wearing a “face covering” during a movie and theaters can’t make money by social distancing the capacity. Who is going to pay $30 for a movie? Vegas is dead unless casinos just say “frick it” and drop the social distancing (most Vegas casinos will open on June 4th with SD, mask optional). Going to the buffet: “That will be $50 due to SD.” Airlines are dying. The margins are just too thin. When our food supply and other JIT products and services start declining, who is going to decide where the stuff goes. The goobermint!

    My dentist charged me $15 extra last week for PPE to clean the fangs. I thought it was a bargain seeing all of the protective stuff she was wearing. And I was not sure if she was double gloved also. I tried not to bite her this time.

  43. We are over 20X the number Greg was betting on…. and we’re still going strong.

    I still think the number is bogus. Just because you are positive when you die, doesn’t mean you died of COVID. Counting the “flu” the same way would up the “death count” significantly. Most of the deaths are people at the “doorway” anyway.

    We have had 41 people die of SARS-COV-2 in Fort Bend County, a Texas county of 850,000 people. The youngest person was 50 from what I have seen. The median age was 72 or 74, I cannot remember. All of the people had “underlying issues” according to the paper. And the official number of infections is 1,766.

    “Fort Bend County is reporting 34 new confirmed cases of the coronavirus, bringing the county total to 1,766, according to data published online May 27.

    Of the 1,766 cases countywide, there are 1,179 active cases, 546 recoveries and 41 deaths, and 37 Fort Bend County residents are hospitalized with the coronavirus.”
    https://communityimpact.com/houston/sugar-land-missouri-city/coronavirus/2020/05/27/13-of-34-coronavirus-cases-reported-may-27-in-fort-bend-county-are-located-in-sugar-land-missouri-city-zip-codes/

    I figure that there will be new SARS-COV-2 cases for the rest of our lives.


  44. and on cases with resolution, we’re still running 1 in 6 dead here in the US

    Cite, please. That’s pushing two orders of magnitude higher than the 0.26% rate that was published a few days ago, and even that number is likely inflated.

    Counting the “flu” the same way would up the “death count” significantly.

    Exactly.

    It would be entertaining to see all diseases, conditions, and external factors counted in the same way. If we added them up, we’d surely get several times the number of dead bodies — the typical American who dies probably has several diseases, a number of small tumors, excess weight, some cardio obstruction, etc.

  45. Dishwashers. The old house had a whatever brand that was loud. Loud enough that you didn’t start it and go to bed, you started it on the way out of the house in the morning. But it did a good job. When I replaced the vinyl flooring I had the kick panel off. And the noisey thing was running.

    Yeah, not a fan of seeing electric sparks crawling around where the heater terminals showed underneath. So I shopped a bit, bought a KitchenAid when they were still made by Hobart.

    Good machine. Quiet. I moved it to this house and stuck a $250 machine into the “rent house”. Well, yeah, I’m keeping my two year old $600 machine. I replaced a couple of $20 parts over almost 30 years but when the water pump went, time for new.

    Another KitchenAid. Because. Annoyingly, you can’t “just go buy a dishwasher”. It has to be “ordered” from who knows where but honest injun we’ll have it in 10 days. Business days, that is.

    The new dishwasher had a tiny leak in the tub where a spot weld for a heater bracket went bad. Tiny leak, a pie plate would catch it all and evap enough to never bother with again. Not acceptable for a brand new $1200 dishwasher. The repairman offered the choice of replacing the entire machine or replacing the tub. Hey, what makes you the most money? New tub it is.

    Well. Come to find out that what you need is a stainless steel tub and the rinse aid dispenser. Everything else is Options…. like sound proofing, bottle wash jets, 3rd rack for knives, etc. The pumps and spray bars are the same.

    Something I wish I had known, but I like the machine I bought. The refrigerator is louder. All I hear from the dishwasher is a swish swish noise and when it drains into the disposal, that is louder.

    Added: KitchenAid, Maytag, Kenmore, and a few more are made by the same company. I don’t know about Bosch or Fridgedair.

  46. More on the dishwasher saga. It is a Kitchenaid, very quiet. Most stainless steel models are quiet. Bosch is one of the quietest.

    Anyway, replacing the door gasket did not help. Actually easy to replace and not that expensive. Worth the cost for the first attempt. Next possibility was the level sensor. Opened the door mid cycle and water level was normal. What I did notice was a lot of suds, still water on the floor. So I let the cycle complete. Problem is definitely the door area.

    More research. Found a little nugget about changing detergent. Hmmm, interesting based on my observation of suds when I opened the door during the cycle. So I left the dishes in and ran a cycle with no detergent. What do you know, no water on the floor. So the detergent and the amount of suds is the issue. Will be trying different detergent tomorrow.

  47. We are over 20X the number Greg was betting on…. and we’re still going strong.

    I believe in March I restated that the numbers would be similar to deaths from H1N1 once those counts resurfaced in the media, somewhere on the 10^5 order of magnitude. 20,000?

    I also stated that I thought the number of infections, symptoms or not, would also be around the H1N1 counts in the 10^7 order of magnitude. 60 million IIRC. We’re not there yet.

    We are just getting around to doing mass antibody testing with voluntary quarantine for positives, and I figured that the tests would happen on a widespread basis by the end of April with mandatory quarantine rather than saying “Pretty please”. Bzzzt. Even if the tests had been there, the intestinal fortitude to treat people *exactly as we would for a positive TB test*, with a lockdown enforced by random police and/or health department visits, just isn’t there. Instead, we’ve chosen to Fear Mask which does nothing but remove the stigma for the sick and is of marginal effectiveness towards protecting the well.

    Of course, Fear Masking may result in “no excuse necessary” mail-in ballots, even in Texas, with two weeks of early voting at empty polling places providing plenty of social distancing. That’s probably the real goal.

  48. I use Cascade Complete. Powder, not pods. Works for me. Oh, and I dump the Cascade into an old mixed nuts container and use a Miracle Grow plant food scoop to measure. Full scoop in the covered part, half in the other part. Your mileage will vary.

  49. Ya’ll know what my take is.

    What if they threw a pandemic and nobody came?

    @SteveF
    Aeon
    is cool. I like decent writing and essays on all kinds of things, not just a little snippets hacked out by some progressive journalism major*. I’ve only read a few but I look forward to going back and reading more.

    * QV “The Conversation” url intentionally omitted.

  50. re: dishwashers

    Purchased a Maytag from Home Depot July 2018 for about $490. This model https://www.homedepot.com/p/Maytag-Front-Control-Built-In-Tall-Tub-Dishwasher-in-Fingerprint-Resistant-Stainless-Steel-50-dBA-MDB4949SHZ/305908132 , currently $675.

    Stainless steel inside and out. Very quiet, works well. HD took the old one away for $15. I installed it myself (not hard, and I’ve done several in the past). Got the extended warranty (5 year) for $115 extra.

    Stainless steel exterior doesn’t match the rest of the appliances here, but I don’t care. The prior one broke (original with house, probably 18 years old, not used much by prior occupant and original house owner – an older widow).

  51. and on cases with resolution, we’re still running 1 in 6 dead here in the US

    Cite, please. That’s pushing two orders of magnitude higher than the 0.26% rate that was published a few days ago, and even that number is likely inflated.

    I think that @Nick is talking about the death rate for infected people who go into the hospital. I have no problem with that rate. And I am hearing that if you go on the respirator, your best chance of making it out alive is 50/50, maybe more like 1/3 (that is one out of three).

  52. We are just getting around to doing mass antibody testing with voluntary quarantine for positives, and I figured that the tests would happen on a widespread basis by the end of April with mandatory quarantine rather than saying “Pretty please”. Bzzzt. Even if the tests had been there, the intestinal fortitude to treat people *exactly as we would for a positive TB test*, with a lockdown enforced by random police and/or health department visits, just isn’t there. Instead, we’ve chosen to Fear Mask which does nothing but remove the stigma for the sick and is of marginal effectiveness towards protecting the well.

    Of course, Fear Masking may result in “no excuse necessary” mail-in ballots, even in Texas, with two weeks of early voting at empty polling places providing plenty of social distancing. That’s probably the real goal.

    Why would you quarantine somebody if they are positive on the antibody test ? The presence of antibodies just means that they had once and do not have it now unless they test positive on the big test.

    SCOTX (Supreme Court of Texas) says no mail in ballot unless you are 65, disabled, or out of state.
    https://www.texastribune.org/2020/05/27/texas-vote-by-mail-coronavirus/

    A feddie judge thinks that he can order it anyway. But his boss said no, for now.
    https://www.texastribune.org/2020/05/20/federal-appeals-court-temporarily-blocks-voting-mail-expansion-texas/

    I’ll be voting early in the Republican TX-22 runoff poll in June. We’ve got a carpetbagger running against the High Sheriff.

  53. So the detergent and the amount of suds is the issue. Will be trying different detergent tomorrow.

    Automatic dishwashers have generally been lousy appliances since WA State banned phosphates in the detergents a decade ago and Costco pushed the agenda nationwide by stocking only phosphate-free dishwasher detergents in their stores.

  54. Why would you quarantine somebody if they are positive on the antibody test ? The presence of antibodies just means that they had once and do not have it now unless they test positive on the big test.

    Enforce the same standard as that which gets applied for TB, which also has false positives in the testing chain. Enforcing a lockdown wouldn’t have been a stretch a month ago since everyone was home anyway.

  55. “Latest Audience Model Run Shows 50 Million Listeners”
    https://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2020/05/28/latest-audience-model-run-shows-50-million-listeners/

    “RUSH: We’ve got a new model run in yesterday on audience projections. We’re at 50 million. (laughing) It’s a huge jump. We’ve gone from 44.5 million to 50 million basically overnight. Model runs, model predictions. They’re our models. We are totally in charge of the input data, and therefore we get the data out that we want.”

    Heh. His Neilson rating is about 26 million listeners per week.


  56. We are totally in charge of the input data, and therefore we get the data out that we want.

    The same model methodology used by climate scientists, CDC, IRS, basically anyone with a model. Control the data, control the input, get the output desired.

  57. Heh. His Neilson rating is about 26 million listeners per week.

    I think Limbaugh’s having fun with the Progs. Playing with the meme of the flu projections being many times reality.

    A liberal friend once fretted because his mother was named Oberman’s “Worst Person In The World” earlier that Summer. I said, “You don’t know the secret.”

    “What’s that?”

    “Oberman has a 0.0 share. It means less than 50,000 people saw the show nationwide. Even liberals watch Ted O’Baxter at 8 PM.”

  58. Model runs, model predictions. They’re our models. We are totally in charge of the input data, and therefore we get the data out that we want.

    Is what I call Procrustean Science: instead of observing the data and drawing a hypothesis, one forms a hypothesis and finds (or manufactures!) data to suit it.

  59. “Why would you quarantine somebody if they are positive on the antibody test ? The presence of antibodies just means that they had once and do not have it now unless they test positive on the big test.”

    Enforce the same standard as that which gets applied for TB, which also has false positives in the testing chain. Enforcing a lockdown wouldn’t have been a stretch a month ago since everyone was home anyway.

    BTW, I wasn’t suggesting *mandatory* testing for everyone, but I don’t believe that “asymptomatic” don’t suspect _something_ is wrong. If widespread testing had been available on the first of this month and the masses who showed up for an antibody test read positive, they should have been sent home for two weeks or, as with TB, at least until more thorough testing cleared them. However, I doubt the false positives would have been too numerous in the lockdown numbers from that kind of program.

    I think it is too late now. What will happen will happen and we’ll have Fear Masks until after the election.

  60. OTOH, in the last week, I’ve interviewed three people who could be hired to be my “superiors”and who will make more money than I do while I train them. Two were 20 years younger than I am.

    You are OLD !

    Yet, you are younger than me. Yes, I’ll be 60 in a couple of weeks. I feel it too.

  61. “98.1% Of ‘COVID-19 Deaths’ In Massachusetts Had An Underlying Health Condition”
    https://www.zerohedge.com/health/981-covid-19-deaths-massachusetts-had-underlying-health-condition

    “”98.1 percent (1,289) of people who died after contracting the disease had an underlying condition, such as chronic lung disease, serious heart ailments, obesity, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, or liver disease,” the report showed.”

    “59% of the state’s 3,003 total deaths have included people who spent time in the hospital prior to contracting the virus. 1,905, or 63% of the state’s deaths, have been people aged 80 or older.”

    Don’t be old. Don’t have underlying medical conditions which almost every one over 50 has.

  62. Little Great Granddaughter wanted to eat at the “pick your own food place” as she calls Golden Corral. I noted it had opened for inside dining a week ago so off we went. But things have changed. You can no longer pick your own food. Your server gives you a badly photocopied sheet of paper with a drastically “reduced” menu. No longer can you browse the food lanes looking for something appetizing, sometimes finding a surprise. When the wife and I both ordered sides of corn and mash potato, they served them to us “family style” in large bowls that we could dip from. In both cases there wasn’t enough to satisfy both our appetites. Listening to conversations of diners near us we discovered we were not the only ones disappointed with the “New Normal”. Won’t be going back until reality has been restored.

  63. Little Great Granddaughter wanted to eat at the “pick your own food place” as she calls Golden Corral. I noted it had opened for inside dining a week ago so off we went. But things have changed. You can no longer pick your own food. Your server gives you a badly photocopied sheet of paper with a drastically “reduced” menu. No longer can you browse the food lanes looking for something appetizing, sometimes finding a surprise. When the wife and I both ordered sides of corn and mash potato, they served them to us “family style” in large bowls that we could dip from. In both cases there wasn’t enough to satisfy both our appetites. Listening to conversations of diners near us we discovered we were not the only ones disappointed with the “New Normal”. Won’t be going back until reality has been restored.

    Well that sucks. Our Golden Corral lets you walk around the serving areas and somebody inside the food lanes handles your plate for you. I have not tried it yet since they are not serving breakfast since they do not open until 11 am now. We used to go there with our friends for brunch after 830am church when when we skipped 10am class.

    The new normal sucks. I prefer the old normal even if it was a slow slide into the crazy. This fast slide into the crazy is making me crazy.

  64. Finally home, kids in bed, wife on the couch, dinner in my belly.

    I wasn’t trying to ‘gotcha’ anyone before I left the room, I was just pointing out that we didn’t know anything and we still don’t. And now, there is even more at stake and more reasons to jigger the numbers, with more opposing factions.

    For SteveF–

    Closed Cases
    600,125
    Cases which had an outcome:
    496,940 (83%)
    Recovered / Discharged

    103,185 (17%)
    Deaths

    From worldometers, US this morning. If you get sick enough to need treatment, this thing is a killer. Less so here than elsewhere, but 1 in 6 is terrible odds. And there is no real way to know if you’re going to need treatment. There are factors that exacerbate the problem, and I’ll point out that almost everyone on this site has one or more of those factors, so I wouldn’t dismiss them so easily. Almost everyone over 60 in the US has one or more…

    And that’s a big population at elevated risk.

    The news tonight said we have at least one case of the weird Kawasaki disease like syndrome in kids, right here in Houston. That’s not good either.

    n

  65. There are factors that exacerbate the problem, and I’ll point out that almost everyone on this site has one or more of those factors, so I wouldn’t dismiss them so easily.

    Hey, I am going to count hypertension and congestive heart failure as just one factor.

  66. From worldometers, US this morning. If you get sick enough to need treatment, this thing is a killer. Less so here than elsewhere, but 1 in 6 is terrible odds. And there is no real way to know if you’re going to need treatment.

    But what are the odds of you, the infected dude, needing hospitalization ? It cannot be worse than 1 in 25. I suspect that it is more like 1 in 100. Especially if the asymptomatic rate is 90%.

    The guy that I know that went into the hospital with SARS-COV-2 made it out after a couple of weeks. And his wife also. No respirator needed for either. They are in their 60s. So they were both the 5 out of the 6 that needed hospital care but made it out.

  67. “But what are the odds of you, the infected dude, needing hospitalization ?”

    –that’s the million dollar question and one that NO ONE had good numbers for.

    n


  68. If they do ever revolt or otherwise take power, they’re more likely to double down and use the tools that have been used on them their entire lives than they are to remove those things.

    That would be the usual occurrence in history. Throw of the yoke, only so that you can be the one in power, putting the yoke on others. A lot of human history is pretty damned depressing.

    OTOH, from what one reads, most people don’t know anything about history. Just as an example, there was apparently a recent survey, where people were asked: compared to a couple of decades ago, are more, the same, or fewer people in abject poverty. Almost everyone said “more”.

    That’s the result of unchecked leftist propaganda, and civilization is entirely likely to pay for that the hard way. They’ll destroy capitalism and *really* put people back into poverty.

    – – – – –

    Open floor plans: we’re a fan, but we’re pretty anti-social, so our new house is mostly for the two of us. Three floors, and only 5 rooms in the entire house.

    That said, we did consider a few things. For example, the kitchen has a raised bar towards the dining area, so that people can’t see the “sink full of dirty dishes”.

    We have made almost no provision for guests, which may turn out to be a mistake. If it turns into a problem, we can move our bedroom into the upper floor (our office, which is entirely open), and turn our bedroom into the guest room. We’ll have to see how often the younglings come to visit, and whether they ever show up with an SO.

    If you get sick enough to need treatment, this thing is a killer.

    This. The CDC numbers are based on the idea that a lot of people have been sick, but did not require treatment. Unfortunately, their numbers rest on a stack of assumptions – no one actually knows how many people have been sick. Personally, I suspect the CDC numbers are based more on politics than science – they are following instructions. Like Fauci suddenly being an economic expert. Having your scientific experts start talking economics pretty much destroys their credibility.

    Things are re-opening here, step-by-step. Infection rates seem to be under control, with just a handful of new cases per day. The challenge will be to prevent re-importation from places that don’t have things under control, as the borders re-open.

Comments are closed.