Tues. Jan. 15, 2019 – something going on…

46F and 83%RH. My hands are stiff as paddles which usually means a big change in barometric pressure. I can’t see that part of my weather station from my desk though.

Amazon is having issues. Maybe it’s distractedness, or maybe there is another issue going on. I’ve maintained for a while that they are poisoning the well by letting all these third parties sell as if they were amazon. This has let all the counterfeiters and scammers in. There are categories and products you just can’t buy on amazon anymore.

There seems to be another type of scammer, one who lists all kinds of popular items, but doesn’t actually have them. They are hoping to source the item cheaply and ship once it’s ordered. I had this happen at Christmas with a piece of jewelry. Factory discontinued the item, all the stores showed no inventory, but 3 days later it was “still available” on amazon. Nope. When I ordered, everything looked fine, but in a couple of days the order got canceled. I think, when the reseller couldn’t get the item.

Yesterday the same thing happened with some meat bars. All is good when ordered (inventory showing “last two, hurry”. Then a couple of days later, order canceled due to “technical reasons.”

To have this happen twice in a month, and NEVER before, with modern inventory management, shows a problem.

Perhaps not coincidentally, walmart just emailed that my order with them (and a third party) has been delayed. Hmmm.

Something stinks in Denmark, and it isn’t the tasty cheese.

n

50 thoughts on “Tues. Jan. 15, 2019 – something going on…”

  1. @Brad, or another EUropean or someone with experience there….

    Can you explain a couple things in this article that I don’t understand, and about why this Brexit deal failure is the EOTWAWKI.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-15/meet-new-brexit-doomsday-preppers-housewives-stockpiling-food-and-medicine

    first question is, Why would people be though of as idiots to have two weeks of food in the cupboard? TWO WEEKS?????!!!!?? Is it something cultural to do with WWII rationing and general scarcity? ‘cuz two weeks is a dozen eggs, a couple of boxes of cereal, and a dozen cans of veg, and a dozen cans of ravioli….and two loaves of bread. It’s like a milk crate full of food (ok, two milk crates). It’s not a “stockpile” and it’s certainly not ‘hoarding’.

    Second, May’s deal as I understand it is not Brexit at all, but a new set of ties that bind with the EU. I can see how sensible people who want a Brexit want that sort of Deep State business as usual squashed. But so what? So there is no new deal, and the old deal expires. Why would that stop the trucks?

    Why would there have to be a deal at international levels to have the food keep flowing? If it met health and safety standards the day before, surely it’ll meet them the day after… or is it that TARIFFS won’t be in place? Because in my mind, if people are going to go hungry, you could just let the trucks in and SELL THE FOOD TO WHOEVER WANTS TO BUY IT. Or is that too easy? I’m not seeing France blocking exports, I’m seeing the UK government starve their own people out of spite by stopping imports. What am I missing?

    n

  2. I too have had a number of problems with third-party-fulfilled-by-Amazon products recently. I no longer trust the third-party-seller reviews. And a new big red flag is getting an email from third-party-sellers offering incentives for reviews.

    Bezos needs to quit diddling around with loose women and start minding the store. Amazon has an apocalypse coming in Divorce Court. It was a nice run while it lasted Jeff, but I am looking for other sources (e.g. Chewy now has all my pet supply business).

  3. I used to buy dog food from Amazon, but no longer do. They had favorable prices, even with any shipping, that I would choose them. But a couple of years ago, they increased their prices so that Chewy was as good or better. They also offered the food I wanted from 3rd party providers (all of which charged shipping) and listed the one from Amazon as out of stock. I switched at that point.

  4. Total synchronicity, Bruce Schneier’s Cryptogram newsletter had this link to fraud and hijinks at Amazon wrt their Marketplace (third party) sellers. Long but has some insights.

    Hopefully, the two decade Legend of Bezos being revealed as BS means that Amazon starts getting the same scrutiny from Wall Street and Government as other businesses. Amazon subsidizing their retail operation with AWS profits screams “antitrust”.

  5. I second (third) Chewy, I’ve had positive experiences there.

    And agree, the golden age of unthinkingly trusting Amazon on price is gone. I was sourcing ‘smart’ battery chargers last week, Amazon wanted $120 and Walmart had the item for about $65.

  6. “Amazon wanted $120 and Walmart had the item for about $65. ”

    Um, it’s probably more correct to say that “Third party sellers on amazon wanted $120 and third party sellers on walmart.com had the item for about $65” unless you went to a physical walmart…

    which is the problem with both. Everyone and their dog is now a third party seller with those two. If you want laboratory equipment or some esoteric electronics part, you’re just as likely to get a walmart.com seller in your search results as a real supply house. I KNOW walmart doesn’t sell pipettes but if you search for them you get this —

    https://www.walmart.com/ip/SEOH-Digital-Variable-Volume-Micro-Pipette-Pipettor-5-100ul/571810602

    It’s nominally there in their “Industrial & Scientific/Lab Equipment/Pipets, Pippettes, and Syringes” department. SURE it is, pull the other one, it’s got bells on…..

    n

  7. Bezos needs to quit diddling around with loose women and start minding the store. Amazon has an apocalypse coming in Divorce Court. It was a nice run while it lasted Jeff, but I am looking for other sources (e.g. Chewy now has all my pet supply business).

    The “Brown Truck Store” in general has an apocalypse coming. Shipping costs are going to rise as well as the interest rates on the borrowed money the new generation of *.com companies used to build market share.

  8. “Reminder: Windows 7 Support Ends 1 Year From Today”
    https://www.pcmag.com/news/365971/reminder-windows-7-support-ends-1-year-from-today

    “The operating system still has a 37 percent market share in the desktop/laptop market, according to data from NetApplications. Windows 10 only just topped Windows 7 on that front; it now has a 39 percent share. But many clients, especially businesses, have yet to upgrade to the newer operating system, which arrived three years ago.”

    This is a matter of some concern since I run a Windows 7 x64 shop.

    On the gripping hand, who cares ?

  9. “Netflix and Chill Is About to Get More Expensive”
    https://www.pcmag.com/news/365991/netflix-and-chill-is-about-to-get-more-expensive

    “The video-streaming service is raising prices across the board.The Basic plan is increasing to $9, up from $8. The Standard plan, Netflix’s most popular offering, will jump to $13, up from $11. The Premium plan will be $16, up from $14.”

    I’m not sure which Netflix plan that we have, probably the standard plan so the daughter and I can binge watch simultaneously. I finished “Stranger Things” and am finally following RBT’s advice to binge “Jericho”. I am halfway through the first season and loving it. Just more proof that living through the apocalypse will suck.

    Now that college football season is over, I reduced our DirecTV to the Select plan with two receivers for a bill of $95/month. Baseball season is coming though and I will be looking at upgrading our Hulu to Hulu with Sports so I can watch the Astros. Only $30/month more whereas DirecTV is $50/month more.

    And I still may kill our DirecTV and just use a Tivo with bunny ears for local tv.

  10. This is a matter of some concern since I run a Windows 7 x64 shop.

    On the gripping hand, who cares ?

    I don’t see Microsoft enforcing that date. Even if they do, support will still be available to big customers at a price.

    Windows 7 will be much tougher to remove from Corporate America than Windows XP. That version (7) had the first real 64 bit support widely available at retail while maintaining Win32 backwards compatibility for legacy apps. Java and Python runtimes also work very well in my experience.

    The only way Windows 7 goes away is the hardware dies. The last two generations of AMD and Intel hardware do not have official upgrade support from Microsoft.

    However, you do make sure your stuff runs on Windows 8 and 10, right? Microsoft has gone after the resale market pretty aggressively, and even surplus hardware will get sold with a Windows 10 license these days since most machines capable of running Windows 7 can run 10.

    Testing under Wine on Linux would also be worth the time if for no other reason than to have the capability to do leak checks under Valgrind.

  11. However, you do make sure your stuff runs on Windows 8 and 10, right? Microsoft has gone after the resale market pretty aggressively, and even surplus hardware will get sold with a Windows 10 license these days since most machines capable of running Windows 7 can run 10.

    Our demo laptop is a Windows 10 machine.

    Testing under Wine on Linux would also be worth the time if for no other reason than to have the capability to do leak checks under Valgrind.

    We don’t have a memory leak problem (ducks and runs for cover).

  12. “We don’t have a memory leak problem ”

    why oh why would you wave your private parts at the universe while going Nyaahhh, Nyaaahhh like that??????!!!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?

    n

  13. We haven’t missed our cable tv at all. We watched the ball drop on OTA broadcast, and that’s the only time the tv was on and not on netflix for the kids.

    ATT straight fiber to the home service is costing us about $80 less than cable tv + internet. As soon as I can cut my vonage for OOMA, that’ll be another $50/month saved. ATT cell offered me a lower cost plan that meets my needs that saved me a bunch every month when I called them last year.

    I did pay for a year of DDNS instead of having to log in and touch my account every month, so that was a couple of bucks additional.

    In general though, we’re on track for some real savings this year.

    n

  14. ATT straight fiber to the home service is costing us about $80 less than cable tv + internet. As soon as I can cut my vonage for OOMA, that’ll be another $50/month saved.

    AT&T doesn’t require TV service with the fiber?

    I was so ugly to the Uverse sales people that I was put on a special “do not call” list for ex-employees. No one called after they tunneled under our back yard and killed the neighbor’s trees in order to install fiber.

  15. They pushed the fiber from one end of the block to the other*, then came up and onto the aerial plant. Comcast did the same thing. They were in a race to see who got done first. Ain’t competition grand? So suddenly we had choice, and fiber to the home. Although Comcast’s dmark was on the back of the garage, coax into the house, I talked the ATT installer into running straight to my rack in the attic. I did help him with the pull, putting in pull string the day before. I think he was shocked. Saved him a bunch of trouble.

    It hasn’t been super reliable, going up and down several times a day for a minute or two, but it is fast.

    n

    *we have both underground and aerial easements at the back of the yard, sewer, power, and comms.

    ADDED- straight fiber based internet… no triple play or bundle required, 3 tiers of service available up to 1 gig symmetrical.

  16. after they tunneled under our back yard

    Unless that cable is in an easement or public right of way tell AT&T to remove the line. Or pay you several hundred a month, renegotiated every year. If they don’t agree send them a certified letter demanding removal in 30 days after which you will remove the line at their expense.

    I made Comcast spend several thousand dollars to remove a line that crossed my property. Power company had right of way, Comcast did not even though they used the same poles. Unless the deed gives Comcast and AT&T access they have no right to be on your property.

  17. Brexit, what a mess. In the end, it’s a mess caused by politicians’ egos. Here’s my take, as best as I understand the situation.

    In the UK, the people who were serious about Brexit were driven out of power. Theresa May and her crew were only in it to preserve their positions, so they negotiated a “deal” that satisfies basically no one in the UK, instead giving in to anything the EU wanted. It’s been obvious for months that this deal was unacceptable to just about anyone in the UK, but May’s crowd drove the bus into the brick wall anyway.

    It’s been shot down by the unlikely alliance of (1) people who think killing the deal will force the UK to stay in the EU and (2) people who want nothing to do with the EU and want a hard Brexit. Needless to say, these two groups now have zero common ground, so it’s unlikely that anything constructive will happen in the next 73 days.

    The EU, meanwhile, has been playing hardball. They refused to give the UK any meaningful negotiating room, because they don’t want the UK to come out of this in a good position. Even a deal like Norway or Switzerland would be too good. Why? Because if the UK leaves with a good arrangement, Italy will soon follow, and then maybe Portugal, or Spain, or Poland, or any of a half-dozen other countries. So Britain must be punished.

    On the other hand, I don’t think the EU really believed that the UK would say “no”. So now there are the first signs of panic in Brussels. At a lower level, the UK has been negotiating new trade agreements with non-EU countries, any many of these are in place. What if there’s a hard Brexit, and it works? The horror! So the Brussels politicos are getting worried, and who knows what may come of that.

    As for the average person in the UK: They are worried, because they don’t have any idea WTF will happen in 73 days. The UK imports about 40% of its food. At this time of year, most of its fresh produce comes from greenhouses in southern Europe. Since no one knows if there will be customs borders in 2 months, there is no provision for truckers to apply for permits to pass those borders. By the time one knows what’s happening, the one sure thing is that the bureaucracy will make a mess of it.

    As for why having two weeks of food is weird? Ask any of your neighbors! How many have more than a few days of food in the house? Food grows on grocery store shelves, didn’t you know? Now that people are getting worried, there will probably be some senseless panic and a good bit of hording over the next few weeks…

  18. I try to only buy items marked as “Shipped and sold by Amazon.com.” Sometimes it’s not always cheapest option (or not an option at all) but it certainly makes returns easier. Third parties always want to play 20 questions when you do a return. Amazon will just do it.

  19. By the time one knows what’s happening, the one sure thing is that the bureaucracy will make a mess of it.

    Yup, Brexit is certainly headed that way. Britain may have to fend for itself for a while. And the fact that Britain imports 40% of its food is shocking, how could the powers that be let things get that bad ?

    As for why having two weeks of food is weird? Ask any of your neighbors! How many have more than a few days of food in the house? Food grows on grocery store shelves, didn’t you know? Now that people are getting worried, there will probably be some senseless panic and a good bit of hording over the next few weeks…

    Yup, the time to start hoarding XXXXXXXX prepping is before the crisis.

  20. “the fact that Britain imports 40% of its food is shocking, how could the powers that be let things get that bad ?”

    –because we’ll never fight a war again….

    At the beginning of WWII the UK imported 60% iirc, from the BBC farm show about farm life in the 40s.

    Everyone wants cheap food. Everyone wants to live on an estate.

    n

  21. Everyone wants cheap food. Everyone wants to live on an estate.

    Are you saying that people living on estates (how big is an estate ?) keep us from having cheap food since the land cannot be farmed ?

  22. Farm land around cities is worth more as housing developments, and people want to live in houses.

    If you can import food cheaply, you don’t need the fields anymore.

    There are places where this loss of farmland is very bad.

    n

  23. @nick, ref @Brad & Brexit

    This is not a simple matter to ‘explain’ – no one knows all the answers and that includes me.

    I think I mentioned previously, that the key issue was that the voters voted to leave the EU, but our legislature contained about 75% MPs who wanted to remain in the EU!!

    May thought she was ‘clever’ and along with key members of the Civil Service (who should not be political, but mostly are remainers) blind sided everyone, including her cabinet (senior Ministers) producing the deal which was mainly written by the EU (not wholly) which she believed she could force through Parliament (our legislature).

    She was wrong – big time. Normally this would be the end of a Prime Minister, but because of the internal split within her party (Conservatives) there is no one to challenge her, because she has an impossible job (squaring the voters with the legislature).

    It is too difficult to guess what might happen now. But a key aspect to keep in mind is that if she ‘weakens’ the deal to get it through Parliament with the help of the opposition (Labour Party) she will split her own party – not a good move for a party leader, but she is a dead women walking already and she might go for the ‘glory’.
    Alternatively the EU could ‘blink’ and give the ability for the UK to unilaterally end the ‘Backstop’ (relates to Northern Ireland), my guess this could get through Parliament.

    Mrs May has the ‘power’ to ensure a ‘no deal’ Brexit – the law is already in place. But she has made it clear (having previously lied) that she does not intend to let this happen.

    An option, is to further kick the can down the road, by revoking Article 50 (requires an Act of Parliament voted through the legislature), remaining in the EU and start the whole process again!!

    Heh! Isn’t politics fun!

    As for food and stockpiling. As Bob always noted, most people live out of Supermarkets (including me). Importing food is not a problem – that is what Free Trade is all about. Producing lettuce in Spain is much more cost effective in Winter that trying to do in the UK. But we can live without lettuce. We can also import from the rest of the world if the EU wishes not to sell us their produce. Yes, there could well be some hiccups in the process, but not like 1940s when the UK had a UBoat problem. The EU have already said that truck driver licenses will be temporarily extended in the event of ‘no deal’ and the French docks have said they don’t anticipate any significant additional delays, and the UK will, as suggested above, wave through anything we need in the short term to avoid difficulties. Remember that the EU member Eire (The Irish Republic) transports the vast majority of its trade through the UK – it would be problematic to try and create a problem for the UK without making an even bigger problem for Eire.

    Does that help?

  24. There are places where this loss of farmland is very bad.

    What used to he most productive tomato fields on the planet are currently sitting underneath the Amazon.com warehouse outside Tampa.

    No big deal.

  25. Oh crap, now we are going to have to invade Iran to punish them for not using Dollars to trade with.

    I wish that I was kidding. We have invaded every country that sells something not in Dollars for the last 50+ years.

    Venezuela is still waiting for their invasion 20 years after the revolution.

    War with Iran would not be the same as Iraq, and what little public support which exists for taking out the mullahs would evaporate the moment a burned-out carrier had to be towed back to port or, God forbid, sunk in the Straits or Hormuz. Even the perverted alcoholic REMFs at MacDill understand that much.

  26. From my IRS Field Agent friend:

    “Day 24 of Government Shutdown: I’m starting to see colors again after not sitting in a grey office for so long! They’re beautiful!”

    BTW, his cubicle is next to the office of a federal judge. About 5 or 6 years ago, he arrived at his floor to be waved away by federal marshals. Somebody had shot out the windows of the federal judge’s office overnight.

  27. @PaultheManc-

    Yes, that does help! Thanks!

    It’s surprising and confusing that after the vote, with clear results, that she tried to essentially do the opposite. I guess with what we’ve learned here wrt Trump and the Deep State, it shouldn’t be a surprise at all.

    They are all politicians and mainly want to hide their crimes, enrich themselves and their retainers, and continue feeding at the trough.

    n

  28. From what I can read, the problems with Brexit started with a political “tail-wagging-the-dog”: a small but vocal minority of the Conservative party extracting a promise from PM Cameron to hold a referendum on the EU. The “stay” side did not take this seriously, there was minor chicanery by the leave side, and in the end a national majority (but not London, not Scotland and not Northern Ireland) voted leave. That vocal (and not too bright minority) figured UK had decent bargaining cards here. NOPE. EU is not going to give Britain a better deal as they leave than everyone that stays. One big problem is Ireland is in the EU and Northern Ireland would be out with Brexit. Back to drawing borders and setting up customs checks through the middle of towns so PM May had to negotiate a temporary “no change” in Ireland until that could be figured out. Those that want to leave don’t like that but care not a bit about Ireland or re-opening that can of worms. So it looks like it may be Brexit with no exit deal. Why are people stocking up on food? All those trucks coming across (well both ways) don’t go through any customs check right now because its all EU. With Brexit, all trucks heading to France need to be checked, and all trucks heading to Britain, with the food they can’t grow enough of, will be backed up. Customs personnel and systems are not ready for such a massive change. All those auto plants that built in Britain to serve the EU market duty free – not duty free any more. All the financial services provided out of London for all of the EU – they are now outside the common market and EU regulations. All the banks have been moving thousands of jobs to Dublin, Paris, Frankfurt, etc… to get ready. More jobs will move now. That’s just the tip of the iceberg. As intentionally misquoted, I think on Jerry P’s site but maybe by the founder here: There will always be a small green island in the north Atlantic. Little England indeed.

    You note my take is a bit different than that of PaultheManc. I agree PM May was being bit of an opportunist by taking the job but the strong Brexit voices in the Conservative party before the referendum could not or did not step up to be PM after the referendum. They have just sat on the sidelines and criticized like the worthless twits they are. That the UK will “wave though” anything they need is of course hilarious and ironic as a major selling point for Brexit was to regain control of their borders, and not just as regards immigration. In the long-run, I am sure something will be made of the muddle and we will all forget how they got there. In the short to medium run – chaos awaits. There appears to have been some Russian meddling in favour of Brexit just as there is with populist parties in much of Europe. Putin must be laughing his way to bed every night thinking of the chaos a few dollars spent on the internet has caused within the NATO countries. I’m just happy to be in Canada, eh.

  29. @tv, thanks for that too!

    Of course, there don’t HAVE to be duties, at least not right away, and the same guys are going to be driving the same trucks and the same goods across as before, so again, nothing HAS to change right away.

    Whether people can move freely, I’m betting that the folks in London would be happier if gangs of gypsy pickpockets have to clear thru customs every day when they come to “work”…

    There were borders and controls before, it doesn’t seem to crazy to think that what was done could be done again.

    WRT not everyone voting yes, well we have the same issue here. The Clinton Archipelago voted for her, and everyone else voted for Trump. If you are in ‘flyover country’ you feel one way, if in a democrat controlled big city, another. It would be just as easy to say New York didn’t vote for Trump, nor did New Mexico. That’s the price you pay for being part of the whole… and how we got Carter, Clinton, and Obama despite large parts of the population not wanting them.

    Of course anyone who visits here regularly knows I’m in favor of MUCH MORE than 2 weeks food in the cupboard, and ditto for medicines and other necessities. Given the fragile nature of Just In Time delivery and inventory management, it doesn’t take much to screw up the groceries.

    I’d imagine anything that shut down the Chunnel for a while would empty shelves pretty quickly. A bit of white powder, some radioactive medical waste to trigger sensors, or a simple fire would do it for a while…

    The thing that amazed me was the tone of the disbelief about having a whole TWO WEEKS !!111!!1 As I said before, that’s really only a couple of boxes of food, and the threat of disruptions seems real.

    If the punters there are anything like Joe Sixpack here, the day before the Brexit deadline the stores will be sold out of bread milk and eggs, or as we joke in hurricane country, the french toast preppers….

    n

  30. #Brexit

    To follow up on @TV, his words capture much of the ‘remainer’ viewpoint, one which USA voters will recognise. The voters who don’t vote your way are ‘not too bright’ and must have been influenced by ‘Russian Meddling’.
    Hmph!

  31. Thank you both for sharing. I’ll admit, I hadn’t spent the energy to follow it. I wasn’t paying much attention until May tried the “you’ll have to pass it to find out what’s in it” strategy of our own Democratic party. That caught my attention.

    Now maybe get out and buy some groceries!

    n

  32. well
    sometimes leavers at Britain forget a couple of things, UK could not have barriers to get into, but CEE could and are willing to do this, and there is no empire, and (forgive me ) is similar to 1950s when they sold everything to survive.
    the another one is NHS, and the incredible amount of retirees in southern europe, CEE is gonna to tax, and heavily, the access to facilities, expect people coming home and, they are expensive people to take care.

    There are will be an England, perhaps, but parapharasing, nothing assures that their inhabitantes will speak english.

    Have fun

  33. While I don’t live in the UK, we have had close contacts for many years. Overall, the situation in the populace really is incredibly similar to the US: Two groups, each convinced it is correct and represents the majority, and each convinced that the other side is dumb or deluded. In the US, it’s the progressives (big cities on the coasts, plus specific regions) vs. the deplorables (everywhere else). In the UK, it’s the remainers (London, Scotland, Northern Ireland) vs. the brexiters (everywhere else).

    The picture in the UK would be clearer, except that Northern Ireland and Scotland both have their specific reasons for voting “remain”.

    I’d forgotten about the British retirees in Spain, but that’s unlikely to be a big issue. Those regions of Spain with lots of British retirees will not want to see them go – that’s good money they earn. Likely, anyone already resident there will continue to be a resident. New retirees may face a new set of rules, but emigration/immigration amongst European countries has always existed.

  34. @ayj, good point about healthcare and retirees…

    and nice stinging comment with the mash up of ideas and quotes! Very good use of language 🙂

    nick

  35. @brad,

    populism and nationalism are components too and the subsequent focus on ‘country first’ or ‘global society’ first.

    n

  36. jaja, no, my english is rusty

    nope, one thing is (as example) be an spaniard or member of CEE, resident, another thing is foreigner, and, another thing is to be an spaniard without residence.

    in the first case you have full care, no cost, others, pay, as I paid a few years ago a broken leg (I belong to last case, dual nationality), so when Brexit happens, if they are not spanish people (and I dont know if you could have dual nationality, restrictions to jus sanguinis operates boths ways), they are going to pay, and, they have stranded costs, properties etc, so this is unknown yet.

    Yes, they like the money spent, but they dont spend money on Brussels or Berlin, and the money comes from those sites to retirees sites.

    its gona be fun

  37. Hi PaultheManc. It is not so much that I think the voters are not too bright (I am a voter too), but I think a lot of folks were sold a bunch of lies as to the benefits (and maybe the costs too). Politicians lie, both of the left or the right (or moderates for that matter). We all like that because they are clever and tell us what we want to hear. The leave side were claiming an easy negotiation that would go Britain’s way – not true in fact as we see now and an easy lie to see through if you wanted to look at it at the time. A claim that Britain would gain financially by (sorry I forget the actual amount) something like $300 Million per week if they left the EU. No facts behind that claim, and there are actually billions owed by Britain to the EU if they leave. It is also true the “remainers” made claims of financial disaster if the vote was for leaving – that has not happened either, or at least not yet. Leaving was supposed to lead to Nirvana and the “grand olde Great Britain” or lead to “chaos and financial disaster”. Truth will land someplace in the middle. From across the Atlantic, this still looks like a lot of pain and disruption for very little (or maybe no) gain. I can of course be wrong but call me skeptical of any benefit. Not my country of course, and I have no vote so no say. The British will work this out somehow.

  38. @ayj #Brexit

    Ayj, the Spanish Prime Minister, in a speech at the end of December 2018 has already stated that British Citizen rights in Spaine will be respected as long as the UK reciprocates. The UK Prime Minister has already stated, that in the event of a ‘no deal’ EU citizens will be welcome to stay in the UK with existing rights (without putting a reciprocal requirement on Spain).

    Sensible people, taking sensible and respectful actions.

  39. @TV #Brexit

    Your more nuanced reply I largely agree with – there were overstated claims by both sides – but when, as a voter you listen to politicians, you should know this. There is a (British?) joke – When do you know a politician is lying, when you see there lips move!

    One point I would take issue on, is the claim that leavers were looking for “grand olde Great Britain”. I cannot think of any leaver who suggested that. I believe that claim was made as a disparaging remark by remainers. All leavers were advocating ‘taking back control’ of our own country so that we could be more flexible in responding the the dynamics of world markets as they are today, so that we could promote more dynamic free trade agreements than is possible within a group of 28 countries with differing objectives (some very protectionist). So, far from being ‘olde’, leavers would see themselves as progressives.

  40. WRT 2 weeks of food. Please remember that to many Americans 2 weeks of food is a normal shopping run. It is NOT stocking up.

    I live in Florida and can expect food disruptions for several weeks can occur in the event of a major hurricane, so I nave well in excess of a months food and water on hand, or will with a few days notice (Have to fill the water containers). When I lived in New England, the Blizzard of ’78 shut us down for 10 days. I guess Europe isn’t subject to similar events, but it is prudent to be ready here.

    We weren’t questioning why people were getting ready for disruptions, but rather that the preps were so low!

  41. That’s the price you pay for being part of the whole… and how we got Carter, Clinton, and Obama despite large parts of the population not wanting them.

    Carter is a decent human being who was a terrible President. I kinda-sorta understand why people voted for him. If nothing else, he did the honorable thing and lost in 2980 instead of turning his delegates lose to vote for Uncle ted at the convention.

    The other two? No clue.

  42. I live in Florida and can expect food disruptions for several weeks can occur in the event of a major hurricane, so I nave well in excess of a months food and water on hand, or will with a few days notice (Have to fill the water containers).

    I remember that, near the end of his second term, Jeb! Bush got into trouble asking the rhetorical question as to why any Floridian wouldn’t have a few days of food on hand in case of an emergency like a hurricane or the occasional rolling blackouts during Winter.

    (For those unfamiliar with the HVAC systems in the state, most houses have electric heat, and every resident believes it is their God given right to set the thermostat at 74 and wander their house in shorts year ’round.)

  43. Hi PaultheManc – A lot of claims were made by leavers and the claim that this would be:

    ‘taking back control’ of our own country so that we could be more flexible in responding the the dynamics of world markets…

    was made mostly by the same minority within the Conservative party MPs that thought they could negotiate Brexit on favorable terms (wrong on that count). So, Britain ( 70 million people?) will be able to get better terms in a trade deal than the EU (450 million people). I am Canadian. Renegotiating NAFTA was a nightmare because we have far fewer people (35 million) vs the USA (north of 300 million). In all those cases, economic strength basically matches to population size. Clauses in a treaty that may have only a marginal impact on the US could cause huge economic damage to Canada because size matters. It is true the UK can be more nimble. They will have to be because they have far less to offer (access to a much smaller market). When Canada negotiates with the US, we always put the “A” team on that job because the stakes are so high. The US mostly uses whoever is not busy at the time. We still have a difficult time getting to a deal we can live with. This is now the place Britain has placed itself, or maybe just England since it is not clear whether Scotland and Northern Ireland will choose to stay in Britain. Yes, they gave up some control when they were part of the EU trading block. I am skeptical that they will get anything of value back. Again, time will tell.

  44. Paul

    time will tell, but I doubt that NHS do it, (strained as it is?)remember, Spain , Italy, Greece and to a lesser extent France have British people going to medical facilities

    So you are stating that NHS will cover everything to CEE people? as example Poland?, etc. and remember money comes from Brussels and Berlin.

    The demography doesnt help you, but, again, time will tell, in the end, is cheaper to UK pay for it, I am almost sure that it gonna happen, but me

    You are not dealing with one case, we are talking about serious money, and imagine newspapers stating that an hospital in UK choosed to give care a CEE citizen instead an UK citizen first, or, the opposite? it is short lived. May maybe is opening the umbrella for future rains, and, the spanish PM, but, Italy? France? Greece? it is UE, not Spain only.

    True costs of Brexit are going to be high, for both, maybe less for UE, one example of the things that are going are Galilelo satnav, they kicked off UK as you may know.
    De Gaulle is smiling

    https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/05/02/britain_encryption_tech_galileo_threat/

    its gonna to be fun, surely

  45. True costs of Brexit are going to be high, for both, maybe less for UE, one example of the things that are going are Galilelo satnav, they kicked off UK as you may know.
    De Gaulle is smiling

    https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/05/02/britain_encryption_tech_galileo_threat/

    its gonna to be fun, surely

    By 2026, the entire satellite picture is going to be extremely different as SpaceX gets their 7,000 satellites in LEO for a minuscule of the current cost of launching a satellite.

    And De Gaulle would not allow the yellow vests to trash Paris. Of course, he would not allow that fool Macron to be President either.

  46. @ayj

    I don’t understand what you are saying.

    EU residents in the UK are currently entitled to the same health care as UK citizens, and I do not hear, or expect to hear complaints about such treatment. For future immigrants the rules may be different. I see no problem for anyone working legally in the UK and paying taxes, to take advantage of our health services.

    You say Brussels and Germany pay! For what? I am not aware of this. UK is a net EU contributor of over GBP10 Billion per annum.

    As for Galileo, can anyone understand why the EU would choose to exclude the second most major contributor to the defence of Europe and a major investor in the project, from use of the system. This seems like an unreasonable position to take. However, the UK will do whatever is required to ensure its defence capabilities.

  47. As I said, forgive my poor english

    current rules are fre movement of goods and free movement of people within EU, but, as Brexit happens, no more of the two, so, current rules to people to apply to have a permanent residence in UK, and, last but not least, since you are not a UK citizen you must apply for legal residence, unless it is automatic (AFAIK not established yet), as example, as UE citizen doesnt need to apply legal residence, he/she moved to UK has a job pay taxes and it is enough period. Its gonna change, since UK and EU are different, and they are going to be inmigrants, after they have legal residence they have equal rights, in the meantime? is automatic?

    Now, after Brexit, what is gonna happen? and this is the issue, and the opposite is true, and this is where the healthcare issue happens, could a retiree at France have dual nationality? and so on.

    its gonna be interesting

    Lynn, yes, as the fusion the next big thing, first the network, after the product, 20 years, 15?

    PS The figures are difuse, it depends of a lot of things.
    PS2 Surely UK will do, it is just money from taxes

    again, forgive my english and since I am only a bystander, maybe I wrote one or many nonsenses. One thing is sure, my next trip to England will be cheaper

  48. Lynn, yes, as the fusion the next big thing, first the network, after the product, 20 years, 15?

    Given that SpaceX launched 18 satellite payloads into orbit in 2018,
    https://www.space.com/42599-spacex-falcon-9-rocket-3rd-launch-success-sso-a.html

    And that SpaceX’s Starlink has two test satellites in orbit,
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)

    And that Starlink has permission to launch 12,000 satellites from the FCC (see previous wikipedia article), I would assign a much higher chance of Starlink’s implementation than the nebulus target of controlled and sustained nuclear fusion on the Earth. There is only one nuclear fusion reactor in the Solar System and it is a monster.

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