Thur. Jun. 30, 2022 – gotta get busy

Hot and humid, but a bit less thanks to the rain… which came late yesterday afternoon.  It was 79F when I went to bed, so not exactly cool…

Spent yesterday doing auctions and email.  Felt pretty much back to normal, if a bit fatigued.   Turns out D1 had a Dr appointment, right smack in the middle of my normal day, so that kinda kept me home anyway.   I did get some grocery shopping done, and picked up a few cans and other things for the BOL.  One consideration is, do I stock the BOL with all new stuff, so it lasts the longest, or transfer existing stuff, most of which is aging with some small chance I will use it soon?  I will probably end up doing some of both, but it is a consideration.

There is a fair amount of wildlife at the  BOL.  So far, besides fish and turtles, I’ve seen deer, a beaver, a momma raccoon, and the kids saw a possum.   Snakes too, and birds of course.  Supposedly there are armadillos being pests and digging under foundations in the neighborhood but I’ve never seen one.  The neighbors have also taken wild pigs, so I know they are around in the nearby woods.   The longer I’m up there, and the more I look, the more I see.  Oddly, very few squirrels, although one neighbor is supposed to be death on squirrels so maybe that’s why.  Lots of free range tucker if needed…

But the stories I’ve read have the local animal and vegetable population quickly reduced to nothing, in the event that people start eating them in earnest.  So I am not counting on “living off the land” or even the small part of the land I have as a garden.   I’m stacking food in cans for that.

Definitely, learn about the food that currently surrounds you wherever you are.   And it may provide variety and a supplement to whatever you’ve got stored or can buy.  But don’t think it will be enough to sustain you and yours if push comes to shove.

Stack food.  And friends.  You’ll need both.

nick

 

81 Comments and discussion on "Thur. Jun. 30, 2022 – gotta get busy"

  1. SteveF says:

    But the stories I’ve read have the local animal and vegetable population quickly reduced to nothing, in the event that people start eating them in earnest.

    Correct. Hunter-gathering supported a small fraction of the population density that agriculture did, thousands of years ago. With modern tractors and fertilizer and the rest, we in the US have a fraction of 1% of the population doing actual farming. Contrast with almost 100% of the population getting food in hunter-gatherer tribes.

    If you want to live off the land in a doomsday scenario, you need to stock up on bullets and snare material and be ready to kill 99% of everyone else around you. They’re competing for your food, right, and it’s you or them.

    The alternative is to stock up on cans and boxes of food.

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  2. MrAtoz says:

    @~jim – I have no idea why you are having a problem.

    Gravatars

    Gravatars

    Gravatars

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  3. MrAtoz says:

    Finally, good news for criminals:

    Nearly Half of Murders Now Go Unsolved in America, The Lowest Clearance Rate on Record

    Thanks BLM, PLTs, AntiFa and plugs.

  4. SteveF says:

    Look on the bright side, MrAtoz. If there’s someone that you’ve been wanting to kill but you didn’t want to go to jail, this is the time to do it. 

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  5. SteveF says:

    Also, could it be that the low clearance rate for murders is caused by the lack of gravatars? We can’t prove that the former isn’t caused by the latter, so the modern way of doing science tells us that the former is caused by the latter.

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  6. drwilliams says:

    Best wishes to Senator Leahy for a lingering illness.

  7. Ray Thompson says:

    The testimony in the January 6 hearings got clever with Hutchinson. Hutchinson stated that Trump lunged at the driver. Considering that Trump sits about 10 feet back in the armored limo that is quite an accomplishment. Then it is learned that Hutchinson did not actually witness the event but was told of the event by someone else. The Secret Service agents are willing to testify, under oath, that the disruption to the driver never happened. Those agents are being ignored by the committee.

    Hearsay is not admissible in court but is apparently OK in a congressional hearing. Especially when that hearsay is painting the narrative the panel desires. Hutchison cannot be charged with lying to the committee because she did not. She is only repeating what someone told her, such hearsay now becoming fact in the eyes of the panel. Of course, the panel will not attempt to find the person that told Hutchinson the fairy tale as that would destroy the panel’s desired result.

    The January 6 committee started with a result. The committee is now doing what it can to prove the result. Dissenting reports dismissed. Testimony that would upset the result never pursued. Lying by way of hearsay if necessary to get a result.

    The January 6 committee is not attempting to get the truth, only a verdict that was already pre-determined. It’s like telling someone they will get a fair trial, then executed. The entire committee, especially Liz Cheney, are an embarrassment. To the American people, to the committee, to the congress, to themselves.

    All to pursue a pre-determined result.

    Remember, if ever questioned by a federal agent, say nothing, except “I want a lawyer”. If questioned by a congressional committee, plead the 5th on every single question effectively saying nothing. The federal government is not your friend, never has been, never will be your friend.

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  8. Ray Thompson says:

    We can’t prove that the former isn’t caused by the latter, so the modern way of doing science tells us that the former is caused by the latter.

    You are congressional hearing material. You already know the answer you want. Guilty until proven innocent. Ignore opposing facts, make up facts that are in line with the results you desire. Clever you be young Jedi.

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  9. MrAtoz says:

    This is treason:

    Joe Biden bashes SCOTUS at NATO summit, calls on Congress to codify Roe v. Wade by eliminating filibuster, and then he’s ‘outta here!’ [videos]

    SCOTUS is destabilizing the World. Laughable. Spitting on your own country. Despicable.

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  10. Greg Norton says:

    Joe Biden bashes SCOTUS at NATO summit, calls on Congress to codify Roe v. Wade by eliminating filibuster, and then he’s ‘outta here!’ [videos]

    If codifying Roe V. Wade in a fillibuster free environment is a good idea, why didn’t Congress act in 2009 when they had about six months of supermajority in the Senate, until Ted Kennedy assumed room temperature that Summer?

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  11. Nick Flandrey says:

    83F and 82%RH with overcast sky. 

    Ordered the replacement fuel tank and a propane conversion kit for my Honda EU3000i genny.

    I might need to order a carb too, just to get the bowl, but I have a vague recollection of ordering a chinese carb during my original repairs to the genny.  I have to look and see… or the current bowl might be clean enough to continue using it.

    The tank is a takeoff from new, sold by the same ebay  seller I found originally, but now he’s got them listed again.   The propane kit will work without the gas tank, and I could just run it as propane all the time.  I’ll get the propane on it right away.  The tank replacement means taking the whole thing down to the frame, and I don’t think I’ll have time.   I’ve got a lot of propane bottles, and they don’t go bad like gasoline does here.

    n

  12. drwilliams says:

    Scotus reigned in the lying shiiteheads at the EPA.

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  13. SteveF says:

    When is the contract not a contract?

    When PayPal, or t-mobile, or Google, or Tom, Dick, or Harry’s TOA is subject to change without approval.

    Yep. I make it a point to read contracts and license agreements in full, but lately almost all web app Terms of Use and most software licenses contain clauses along the lines of “may be modified at any time, with or without notice”. At that point I stop reading because there’s no point in looking for gotchas because if they aren’t there today they may suddenly appear next week. In this case I either decline to use the site or software or I use it in a sandboxed environment which has no access to files on my hard drive.

  14. Alan says:

    >> The testimony in the January 6 hearings got clever with Hutchinson. Hutchinson stated that Trump lunged at the driver. Considering that Trump sits about 10 feet back in the armored limo that is quite an accomplishment. Then it is learned that Hutchinson did not actually witness the event but was told of the event by someone else. The Secret Service agents are willing to testify, under oath, that the disruption to the driver never happened. Those agents are being ignored by the committee.

    As Warner Wolf used to say…let’s go to the videotape…

    https://twitter.com/NautPoso/status/1542320284216299526

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  15. drwilliams says:

    The experts tell us that higher vaccination rates mean lower infection rates (inverse correlation). This does not appear to be the case with omicron in Germany, were the two provinces with the lowest vaccination rates have the lowest infection rates:

    https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2022/06/germanys_experience_with_covid_vaccines_suggests_they_increase_omicron_infections.html

    Be interesting to watch this and see if it changes or gets ‘splained away. 

  16. lynn says:

    “Supreme Court curtails EPA’s authority to fight climate change”

       https://www.scotusblog.com/2022/06/supreme-court-curtails-epas-authority-to-fight-climate-change/

    “By a vote of 6-3, the court agreed with Republican-led states and coal companies that a decision by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit interpreting the Clean Air Act to give the EPA more expansive power exceeded the agency’s authority. The decision, written by Chief Justice John Roberts, was handed down on the final opinion day of the 2021-22 term.”

    “The Supreme Court on Thursday reversed the D.C. Circuit’s ruling. Roberts wrote that the EPA’s effort to regulate greenhouse gases by making industry-wide changes violated the “major-questions” doctrine – the idea that if Congress wants to give an administrative agency the power to make “decisions of vast economic and political significance,” it must say so clearly.”

    This is a major win for the minimal government people.  Federal agencies cannot assume new powers and regulations without Congress’s direction to do so.

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  17. paul says:

    Chicken Enchiladas tonight.

    Ten corn tortillas.  

    One 28 ounce can of Keystone chicken, drained.  About a half of a can of green enchilada sauce, a sprinkle each of onion and garlic powders, a heaping teaspoon each of chili and cumin powder.  Some black pepper.  About a half cup of sour cream…. don’t know, finished the tub.

    The rest of the mixture, enough for three more enchiladas, was spread over the enchiladas and then the rest of the sauce.  Smells great and is sitting covered on the counter.  Buddy is /very/ interested.  I think I’ll dribble on a few tablespoons of nacho juice.  If I remember.  I’m going to cook it in the Trager.  Outside.  Too hot to run the oven.  Then add some more sour cream and a bunch of shredded monterey jack when it’s almost done.

    I have a cup of chicken juice.  I’ll use a little to thin the canned re-fried beans.  The rest?  Who knows what I might think of but more than likely it will be dribbled on the dog’s food.

    I might get motivated enough to make Spanish rice. Maybe.

  18. Nick Flandrey says:

    Well, duh.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10969221/Raging-inflation-FAR-WORSE-told-ANDY-PUZDER-JIM-TALENT.html 

    Raging US inflation is FAR WORSE than we’re being told: If the government calculated price increases the same way it did in the 1980s, we’d ALREADY be in Jimmy Carter territory, write former restaurant empire CEO ANDY PUZDER and ex-senator JIM TALENT

  19. Greg Norton says:

    Why the Pizza Box Dream dies hard. 

    To be fair, I’m guessing $1 million house and couple are sitting on their dock in the picture.

    https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2022/06/couple-bought-home-in-seattle-then-learned-comcast-internet-would-cost-27000/

    I had CenturyLink DSL at my apartment in Issaquah Heights, where Microsoft Campus 2.0 would have been located if the company had been split. Granted, service was 12 MB up 3 down, but it was still DSL.

  20. SteveF says:

    If the government calculated price increases the same way it did in the 1980s, we’d ALREADY be in Jimmy Carter territory

    Now do unemployment numbers.

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  21. lynn says:

    Horrible collision between the Houston Astros 6’5″ 250+ lb left fielder and 6’0″ 200 lb short stop, both running at full speed for a pop fly.  “Astros’ Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Peña leave game after scary collision”

        https://www.chron.com/sports/astros/article/Astros-Yordan-Alvarez-Jeremy-Pena-collision-injury-17274859.php

    The Astros’ left fielder was down on the ground for several minutes before he was carted off the field”

    There is a video.  This is why you always call the ball in the outfield.

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  22. Nick Flandrey says:

    @greg  – “181 feet of underground”   HA HA HA HA HA HA AH….   THOUSANDS of feet to my client’s house.     And I’m pretty sure the cost is more than $27K.    

    It’s an interesting story though, about infrastructure, competition, and marginal costs.  Also, reading contracts…

    If they had line of sight, comcast could put a ubiquiti link from the far side of the road.  Or they could do a deal with a neighbor, get a second service, and wireless link to their house. 

    There are engineering solutions, but sometimes kids, the economics aren’t there.  When would comcast EVER make back their investment?

    n

  23. EdH says:

    Ordered the replacement fuel tank and a propane conversion kit for my Honda EU3000i genny.

    Nick, you probably already know this (it was a surprise to me tho) but for anyone prepping: you lose about 10% power output with propane. 

    In addition you will lose about 5% per 1000 feet of elevation, so for example at 2500’ and using propane my 2200 probably puts out 1800w.  Which I’ve tested to be enough to start and run anything in the house. 
     

    I suspect your BOL is nowhere that high though. 
     

    That said, not dealing with storing/pouring/stabilizing gasoline is a huge plus. 
     

    A final note: people talk about parallel setups of two small generators for heavy electrical loads. Yes, you can buy or make a such a cable, but my manual says to use for a limited time only , 20m or so. 

  24. MrAtoz says:

    This is a major win for the minimal government people.  Federal agencies cannot assume new powers and regulations without Congress’s direction to do so.

    I hope this leads to lawsuits against every other Federal agency, start with Education and their SWAT team. Make Congress get off their dead carcass and do their job.

  25. lynn says:

    This is a major win for the minimal government people.  Federal agencies cannot assume new powers and regulations without Congress’s direction to do so.

    I hope this leads to lawsuits against every other Federal agency, start with Education and their SWAT team. Make Congress get off their dead carcass and do their job.

    No, I want a do nothing Congress.  That they are so tied up that they cannot pass anything.

  26. paul says:

    Why the Pizza Box Dream dies hard. 

    Ah.  They bought a house that has never had cable TV if I’m passing reading comprehension class today.   And digging a ditch across a road is going to be expensive.   Who knew? 

    Make friends with a neighbor.  Make a deal to pay for a bit over half of their internet bill… gotta cover the electric bill…  If that violates Comcast’s TOS, and of course it will, how about getting your service at the neighbor’s house to a shed in their back yard and then learn how to set up a pair of Nanobeams?  Maybe even get your own electric meter at the neighbor’s shed.  

    Seems to me that if you can drop a million bucks for a house some simple networking should be a breeze. 

    My pair of NanoBeam 5AC 16 have been solid and after having some trees removed, they  are cooking at 380 to 550+ Mbps.  I have them at 5765 MHz and an 80 MHz wide channel.  The power level is set as low as it goes.  I can up that speed.   I’m going about 200 feet with one unit transmitting through a wall…. 181 feet clear line of sight ain’t nothing.  I think what I have is rated for 5 miles. 

    Before the tree trimming they were running at 150 Mbps or so.   Considering my internet connection is speced for 30/10, still plenty fast. 

    But yeah, it’s easier to whine about evil big business than it is to actually do.  /yoda

  27. Greg Norton says:

    Now do unemployment numbers.

    Real unemployment, the non-participation rate in the adult working age population, was above 30% in Vantucky when we left eight years ago. I shudder to think what it is now.

  28. Greg Norton says:

    If they had line of sight, comcast could put a ubiquiti link from the far side of the road.  Or they could do a deal with a neighbor, get a second service, and wireless link to their house. 

    There are engineering solutions, but sometimes kids, the economics aren’t there.  When would comcast EVER make back their investment?

    Comcast 5G service using a mobile hotspot would accomplish the same thing as a Ubiquiti link or cutting a deal for a Wifi password with the neighbors. Subscribers also get access to the WiFi mesh Comcast establishes in the neighborhood on all of their hardware.

    If they don’t have a neighbor within the 300 feet max for a run of Cat6 in an off-the-books deal, that is a very pricey house in Northgate. 

    Pre-HTTPS Everywhere, just breathing that you might run a VPN at home for work purposes would get you classified as a commercial customer by the cable companies per their terms of service. I don’t know what the situation is now.

    Interesting that StarLink doesn’t work in Northgate. Those would be Tony’s people.

  29. MrAtoz says:

    PLT heads are exploding over the SCOTUS ruling on the EPA. They’ll probably move up the 12 (10 now) year heat death of the Earth to 5 years.

    GLOBAL WARMING IS REAL!!!

    -☠️-

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  30. Lynn says:

    I read an engineers analysis of the SCOTUS carbon dioxide decision.  He came down on the side that the EPA violated the Best Available Emission Control technology rule by forcing all coal power plants in the USA to close by 2030.  Closing is not controlling.

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  31. Robert "Bob" Sprowl says:

    Paul: Re NanoBeam 5AC 16:

    I need to connect my new shop to my house – straight line of sight distance of 200′.  I was going to bury a cable to do so but I plan on a concrete or asphalt driveway.  

    Looking at the quick installation guide it shows signal strength LEDS.  If I place these units in the attic of the house and up on the pole for my yard light on the shop checking the signal LEDS will be a major pain in the rump.  

    From the Quick start guide it appears I’ll need the antenna, two ETH-SPs and a ES-8-140W at each end, plus UPS power as I don’t reliable power here.

    Your thoughts on this, please.

    Bob

  32. Nick Flandrey says:

    So, remember Venezuela?  At no point was is crystal clear that THIS was the time to bail…  it was all incremental.

    S&P 500 suffers worst first-half plunge in over 50 YEARS: Stocks plunge 21% in six months amid surging inflation, rate hikes and Russia’s war in Ukraine

    • Stock are on track for their worst quarter since the start of the pandemic 
    • The S&P 500 fell nearly 0.88 percent on Thursday, down 21 percent since the start of the year, its worst six-month drop since 1970 
    • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 15.88 percent since January, and the Nasdaq is down nearly 30 percent
    • It comes as inflation persists at a 40-year high, with analysts fearing that the Fed’s tactics to raise rates and combat inflation will lead to a shock in the market

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10968547/Global-stocks-Wall-Street-US-economy-shrinks.html

    Inflation is eating the value of your savings, and fixed income.   The stock markets are down, eating the value of your retirement vehicles (in the investment sense.) You can’t cash out of your house and downsize if no one can afford to buy it…

    If you are in the markets, WHY?

    If you want to sell your house, why haven’t you?

    If you are holding a pile of cash, why haven’t you turned it into something that will hold value against inflation?

    Don’t let incrementalism eat you alive.  You aren’t a frog.

    n

  33. Greg Norton says:

    There are engineering solutions, but sometimes kids, the economics aren’t there.  When would comcast EVER make back their investment?

    The homeowner is far from “just plain folk”. 

    https://www.linkedin.com/in/zacharycohn/

    Cr*p degree but name school. Sold at least one startup during a relatively down period. I would say that Comcast is dead on with that quote.

    I’m guessing daddy money is also involved from one partner or probably both.

  34. Nick Flandrey says:

    @bob, I have used ubiquiti NanoBeam loco M2’s configured in ‘point to point’ “cable replacement” mode. They are out of date, but still available and relatively cheap. I’m sure there is something equivalent that is current (NanoBeam Loco M5 seems to be it.)

    They were powered by PoE with an injector on one (the ‘receiver’), and the switch providing the power on the other (your main network). Once configured they have been bomb proof, running 24/7 for years without issue. If you want wifi at the far end (shop) you will need to connect the “receiver” M2 to your wifi access point.

    If you have a couple of wifi routers laying around, adding the Loco M2 (or M5) pair, just as a ‘cable replacement’ it is probably the cheapest solution. So in your home, you have your normal networking, wifi, etc connected with PoE to the NanoBeam pointed at the shop, have the reverse at the shop, ie a NanoBeam, connected by PoE to a wifi access point or router.

    They could also be configured as access points with really long range coverage, and I’ve used them that way too. You might be able to just point one at the shop, if you only need wifi in the shop.

    I’ve got about a dozen of the ubiquiti UAP-AC-pro access points at my client’s house. They are a bit fussier to configure (need an app, and it doesn’t always find the hardware) and they haven’t been as robust when the lightning hit, but they will link to each other and form a mesh network, so you get wifi coverage, and the ones on the edge only need power and they will send data back to the more central access points thru their mesh. 200ft shouldn’t be an issue, and you get wifi in the yard as a bonus. That is not a cheap solution though.

    n

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  35. Nick Flandrey says:

    Someone who panicked and completely pulled out on Jan. 1, 2014 missed out on an opportunity to literally double his money simply by buying the S&P 500 (3,785.38 as of today vs. 1,822.36 then). Even despite inflation, that’s a good return. 

    if that same someone got out at the beginning of the year, they’d have an extra $1k.   In fact if they’d started in April of 2020 and sold at the beginning of the year they’d have doubled their money in 2 years*.    But if they’d have had to sell because they lost their job or needed the money at the beginning of the lockdowns they’d have barely been even.     If you’ve got 10 years to get your money back, and you don’t actually need it at any specific time (when the market might be at historic lows) then you’re golden.   

    Of course if you bought at the lows and sold at the highs you’d have even more money.

    Funny how very few people manage to do that though.   Most don’t even have any control over the buying and selling, except on the most gross level, because they are mainly invested in funds inside a retirement vehicle.  If your fund manager sells out as the market tanks, you fund crashes in value.  I’m amazed how many fund managers can’t even seem to ‘buy low and sell high’.   Most of them follow the herd and ‘buy high (cuz the stock is hot) and sell low (because the stock is not, and they need to get out.)   

    It’s a casino.  The house always wins in the long run.   And it’s not just me saying that, big guys in the industry have said the same, saying fundamentals don’t even matter anymore.  They’re trading twitter comments and new wire headlines.  Everyone still invested in stocks as they decline has been at the table too long, and is stuck in a sunk cost fallacy.

    I’m specifically not giving investment advice, but I’ve been asking people  how high they thought the market could go, how much “profit” was enough, and wouldn’t it be a good idea to realize some of those paper gains, for some time now.   

    The only responses I ever get are similar to yours, and amount to timing the market.  Something that is famously hard to do, without hindsight.

    n

    *and srsly, does doubling your money in 2 years sound like gambling, or prudent investing?

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  36. Chad says:

    @Nick: That’s probably a reference to this: https://youtu.be/10QoUi2PmNs?t=95

  37. Nick Flandrey says:

    Just for laughs, 

    https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=s%26p+10+year+chart 

    then click on “max” for the timeline.

    Hmm, what happened starting in 2009 and continued until now?

    If you’d bought the low in 2003, ten years later you’d be about even.  Down probably after fees and inflation.  If you bought the high in 2000, THIRTEEN YEARS LATER you are still just EVEN.  The last ten years have been an aberration.  What can’t continue forever doesn’t.

    n

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  38. Nick Flandrey says:

    @chad,  thanks, ya gotta love Buffett.   “All you had to do was put $10k in an index fund in 1942 and leave it.   

    Of course, the average American’s yearly income in 1942 was $1,885

    from the interwebs.   So all you needed to be rich now, was to be rich then…. and live for another 80 years.

    Oh, and you couldn’t do it, because 

    Booth of Wells Fargo, and Rex Sinquefield of the American National Bank in Chicago, established the first two Standard and Poor’s Composite Index Funds in 1973. Both of these funds were established for institutional clients; individual investors were excluded.

    In 1976, Bogle introduced the Vanguard 500 fund, which tracks the returns of the S&P 500 and marked the first index fund marketed to retail investors.

    So just the tiniest little bit disingenuous on the part of the Sage…

    And it leaves out the whole thing about the companies in the Indexes changing all the time too.

    n

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  39. Nick Flandrey says:

    Meghan Markle is ‘rubbing shoulders with the right people and making the right noises’ if she wants to pursue a career in Washington, royal expert says – after she waded into politics following the Roe v. Wade ruling

    – bitch please.   There probably isn’t someone more un- electable in the country than  Meghan…  (whoopi?  Rosanne?)

    n

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  40. Nick Flandrey says:

    @bob sprawl… I failed to address your implied question.  I’ve never looked at the signal strength lights after the initial install, and you are up on the ladder doing the install anyway, so it’s not an issue.  If looking at the lights is your only concern, I don’t think you need to worry about it.

    n

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  41. Greg Norton says:

    Could Tony have a surprise in the works at Boca Chica for the day after the 4th?

    https://www.cameroncountytx.gov/spacex/

    Whether or not the rocket goes all splodey, it will be quite a show.

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  42. Greg Norton says:

    – bitch please.   There probably isn’t someone more un- electable in the country than  Meghan…  (whoopi?  Rosanne?)

    Twenty year ago, Obama was an obscure IL Senator until a few timely un-sealings of political opponents’ divorce records over the next couple of years smoothed his way into the Dem nomination, the keynote speech at the convention, and then the US Senate. We all know what happened next.

    The House of Windsor has an obvious long term plan for the White House, but it doesn’t involve the current of-age generation.

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  43. Greg Norton says:

    So just the tiniest little bit disingenuous on the part of the Sage…

    And it leaves out the whole thing about the companies in the Indexes changing all the time too.

    Buffett is the Oracle of Omaha. I’ll sometimes refer to him as The Gecko here.

    The talk about the index funds is part of Buffett’s PR push regarding succession not being something BRK-A and -B shareholders should be concerned about. His public statements indicate that his second wife, Astrid, the former waitress, will receive $X millions in an S&P 500 mutual fund, sufficient to keep her comfortable for the rest of her life after he passes, but, until The Gecko assumes room temperature and the will is unsealed, no one knows for sure if the waitress will end up with control of everything, with Warren having one last good laugh at Wall Street’s expense.

    Buffett is right when he says that shares in his own company are a terrible investment in comparison right now, but that’s if you have anything less than a five year window buying at the current trading range if my numbers are consistent with his “intrinsic” valuation of the company.

    I have a decent track record with BRK-B and guessing the intrinsic number, but I’m down to just enough to get the Simple Homespun Wisdom (Formerly Ghostwritten by Carol Loomis of Fortune) (TM) printed and mailed to me every year.

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  44. drwilliams says:

    The House of Windsor has an obvious long term plan for the White House, but it doesn’t involve the current of-age generation. 

    The House of Hanover had a plan and got their asses handed to them.

    As much as the Democrats have a fascination with royalty, the rest of us ain’t havin’ no truck with it. They try a comeback and the Brits are going to have to dig deep–like the House on Pooh Corner–for replacements.

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  45. Greg Norton says:

    And it leaves out the whole thing about the companies in the Indexes changing all the time too.

    The index funds don’t typically own all of the companies in whatever they’re targeting, whether that is the S&P 500 or the Wilshire. The capital gains and trading fees would be painful.

    Running one does require a computer and software, however, so early 70s would be the earliest a real index fund would have emerged.

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  46. drwilliams says:

    Fauci reports COVID rebound, says his is “much worse” than initial illness

    Fauci took a second round of Paxlovid, which is at odds with the FDA and CDC stance.

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/06/fauci-reports-covid-rebound-says-its-much-worse-than-initial-illness/

    Send the FBI in to cavity search his doctor and family.

    If someone has to die of WuFlu, what would be more appropriate that losing this lying* thieving** pos?

    *gain of function research

    **drug company payments, blessed by his wife the “ethicist”

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  47. SteveF says:

    There probably isn’t someone more un- electable in the country than  Meghan

    Heelsup Harris?

    As much as the Democrats have a fascination with royalty, the rest of us ain’t havin’ no truck with it.

    A nauseatingly large fraction of women in their retirement years are fascinated by the royals. They may well be Democrats now regardless of political leanings when they were younger. I’ve watched a number of people shift in that direction once they were on the dole, whether it was pension, socialist security, or plain old welfare.

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  48. drwilliams says:

    If anyone sees Liz Cheney out shopping for a new belt with a heavy-duty closet bar sticking out of her bag, give her some help and make sure she gets one long enough to go around her neck without touching the floor.

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  49. drwilliams says:

    secret video uncovered by hard-working Democrat staffer:

    https://twitter.com/NautPoso/status/1542320284216299526

    note: Putin rides a horse by himself. Dale Evans rode faster. Not a challenge.

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  50. drwilliams says:

    Why was the non-accomplishment of every pissant grifter in the republic more important yesterday than the news of this loss?

    Herschel Woodrow “Woody” Williams

    The President of the United States in the name of The Congress takes pleasure in presenting the MEDAL OF HONOR to CORPORAL HERSHEL W. WILLIAMS UNITED STATES MARINE CORPS RESERVE for service as set forth in the following CITATION:

    For conspicuous gallantry and intrepidity at the risk of his life above and beyond the call of duty as Demolition Sergeant serving with the First Battalion, Twenty-First Marines, Third Marine Division, in action against enemy Japanese forces on Iwo Jima, Volcano Island, 23 February 1945. Quick to volunteer his services when our tanks were maneuvering vainly to open a lane for the infantry through the network of reinforced concrete pillboxes, buried mines and black, volcanic sands, Corporal Williams daringly went forward alone to attempt the reduction of devastating machine-gun fire from the unyielding positions. Covered only by four riflemen, he fought desperately for four hours under terrific enemy small-arms fire and repeatedly returned to his own lines to prepare demolition charges and obtain serviced flame throwers, struggling back, frequently to the rear of hostile emplacements, to wipe out one position after another. On one occasion he daringly mounted a pillbox to insert the nozzle of his flame thrower through the air vent, kill the occupants and silence the gun; on another he grimly charged enemy riflemen who attempted to stop him with bayonets and destroyed them with a burst of flame from his weapon. His unyielding determination and extraordinary heroism in the face of ruthless enemy resistance were directly instrumental in neutralizing one of the most fanatically defended Japanese strong points encountered by his regiment and aided in enabling his company to reach its’ [sic] objective. Corporal Williams’ aggressive fighting spirit and valiant devotion to duty throughout this fiercely contested action sustain and enhance the highest traditions of the United States Naval Service

    https://www.cmohs.org/recipients/hershel-woodrow-woody-williams

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DeJ2JHmQsFY&t=23s

    meanwhile, the Pentagon worries that their pussified military is failing:

    Pentagon Considers Using TikTok, Illegal Immigrants To Solve Military Recruitment Problems

    https://dailycaller.com/2022/06/28/pentagon-tiktok-illegal-immigrants-solve-military-recruitment-problems/?utm_medium=push&utm_source=daily_caller&utm_campaign=push

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  51. drwilliams says:

    Cam Anderson at Blacktail Studio dropped a new video today, where he finishes a massive 7′ x 7′ redwood slab as a wall hanger.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eu7ubm7g59E

    I think he gives General Finishes Seal-A-Cell a bit of short shrift. He should have made it explicit that it is not intended as a stand-alone product. I used the 3-part system on several several projects almost sixty years ago to continued good effect. The Seal-A-Cell also worked at a stand-alone on some hardwoods by building up 3-4 coats, similar to varnish/tung oil finishes. I suspect that the product has been reformulated since and would require a bit of new experimentation.

    He blew past 1MM subscribers lat October and is now up to 1.7MM

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  52. drwilliams says:

    @Alan

    Okay, so this is why a Big Mac costs almost seven bucks! 

    Surely you’ve seen the photos of the cows holding up signs: “No abortion for me, no sex for you!” ?

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  53. Paul Hampson says:

     I was going to bury a cable to do so but I plan on a concrete or asphalt driveway.  

    I would look at running conduit before you install the driveway, use sufficient size so that you can pull a new cable through later if it is ever needed.

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  54. Lynn says:

    I would look at running conduit before you install the driveway, use sufficient size so that you can pull a new cable through later if it is ever needed.

    The pros put in a 4 inch schedule 80 pvc pipe if they ever antipate running any cable under concrete.  Conduit can crush, pvc usually does not.

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  55. drwilliams says:

    Another hissy fit?

    Has your doctor checked your hormones lately?

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  56. drwilliams says:

    Someone was not:

    https://grammarist.com/usage/indexes-indices/

  57. Nick Flandrey says:

    And someone missed the handout when courtesy and politeness were handed out too.

    n

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  58. Nick Flandrey says:

    The index funds don’t typically own all of the companies in whatever they’re targeting, whether that is the S&P 500 or the Wilshire. The capital gains and trading fees would be painful.

    yes, another aspect of it, the index fund manager makes CHOICES which is the opposite of what an index fund sells itself as…

    And for the financially illiterate, every fund has a manager.  Whether or not they actively trade or make trading decisions they all have managers. 

    n

  59. drwilliams says:

    What they don’t seem to realize is that the reason the [wind turbine] factories went to China is that the country isn’t powered by wind turbines. No country powered by unreliable power is also a growing manufacturing base. And as well as having cheap coal power, China also has the advantage of cheap slave labor, few environmental rules, no ethics and hardly any red tape. It’s a red-light flasher. About now, a wise investor might be wondering about the the odd disconnect in the idea of building devices to save the world while imprisoning people and polluting lakes. What if the environmental movement is a hollow geostrategic trojan fantasy serving Russians, Chicomms, socialists and investment banker cartels?

    https://joannenova.com.au/2022/06/wind-industry-insider-laments-15-years-waiting-for-the-bright-future-that-never-seems-to-come/

    The guy is obviously an idiot

    “Chicoms” only has one “m”, and magical thinking will out.

  60. drwilliams says:

    Who gave the foo bird a mouse?

  61. Nick Flandrey says:

    @ EdH, thanks for the reminder, and for getting it ‘entered into  the record.’

    Nick, you probably already know this (it was a surprise to me tho) but for anyone prepping: you lose about 10% power output with propane. 

    In addition you will lose about 5% per 1000 feet of elevation, so for example at 2500’ and using propane my 2200 probably puts out 1800w.  Which I’ve tested to be enough to start and run anything in the house. 
     

    I suspect your BOL is nowhere that high though. 

    –  I also understand that  the gennie will run hotter on propane and that can be an issue if the unit wasn’t designed with the extra capacity.

    Like anything, there are tradeoffs, and what might be acceptable to one person might not to another.   I haven’t done a propane conversion before, and only thought about it last year?  When I saw an announcement online that a kit would be available for my Honda.     With the rusted fuel tank and float bowl, the propane conversion will get me back up and running in about half an hour with the actual work taking only minutes.    I can then do the tank and carb later, at my leisure, while still having the gennie if we get a hurricane or blackouts. 

    I have thought about taking it to the BOL, but will probably take the big one I have in storage, if I can find the time to get it running.   The honda is such a simple to use machine, with the electric start, and so quiet, that I’d hate to not have it here. 

    Here, we are about 46 feet above sea level.   I think the topo map said the BOL is about 280 ft ASL.

    n

  62. Nick Flandrey says:

    @drwilliams, it must have been you who linked blacktail studios some time ago.   Beautiful work.

    I’m also loving some turners who work with resin, no one in particular, and watching the work at the lathe can get pretty boring, without the right voiceover, but there are a couple of guys doing novelty stuff, and a couple of guys one tiny step short of art.

    n

  63. Alan says:

    So glad I left NYFC… 

    https://twitchy.com/sarahd-313035/2022/06/30/kathy-hochul-says-i-dont-need-to-have-numbers-to-back-up-her-bs-claim-that-concealed-carry-permit-holders-make-n-y-more-dangerous-video/

    Anne: Do you have numbers to show that it’s the concealed carry permit holders that are committing crimes? 

    Hochul: I don’t need to have numbers. I don’t need to have a data point to say this. I know that I have a responsibility for this state to have sensible gun safety laws.

  64. drwilliams says:

    Here, we are about 46 feet above sea level.

    John Kerry wants to buy your distressed property.

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  65. ITGuy1998 says:

    The pros put in a 4 inch schedule 80 pvc pipe if they ever antipate running any cable under concrete.  Conduit can crush, pvc usually does not.
     

    I also vote for the conduit. Don’t forget to pull a new pull string when you pull the cable.

  66. Nick Flandrey says:

    Dude.  EVERYONE wants to buy my properties.   I get a dozen calls a day, from local investors calling out of their offices, and from national or international investment companies using  indian or paki call centers.    I get more offers to buy than I get solar scams or medicare offers.

    n

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  67. lynn says:

    secret video uncovered by hard-working Democrat staffer:

    https://twitter.com/NautPoso/status/1542320284216299526

    note: Putin rides a horse by himself. Dale Evans rode faster. Not a challenge.

    Note, that is the first skit in the first Deadpool movie with the Deadpool character overlayed by a Trump figure.

  68. Nick Flandrey says:

    Don’t forget to pull a new pull string when you pull the cable.

    this, in spades.   Back pulling to get a new jetline thru s u x…  Doing it TWICE because you’re convinced you have enough cables in already is  beyond the sux…

    n

    Cable is cheap, labor is not.

  69. Alan says:

    >> And as well as having cheap coal power, China also has the advantage of cheap slave labor,

    Ohh, that’s what those giant hamster wheels are for! 

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  70. lpdbw says:

    re: indexes vs. indices

    Some nit-picker seems to have missed this from earlier this month.  I’d feel left out if I valued the nit-pickers opinion.

  71. drwilliams says:

    Note, that is the first skit in the first Deadpool movie with the Deadpool character overlayed by a Trump figure.

    No! Is Real! Liz say so!

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  72. drwilliams says:

    Some nit-picker seems to have missed this from earlier this month.  I’d feel left out if I valued the nit-pickers opinion.

    Nit, not nitpicker. 

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  73. MrAtoz says:

    OK18, groomer18.

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  74. lynn says:

    “Harvard Affirmative Action, Gay Rights Cases Are Next Up at Supreme Court”

        https://www.msn.com/EN-US/news/other/harvard-affirmative-action-gay-rights-cases-are-next-up-at-supreme-court/ar-AAZ2R7t?ocid=uxbndlbing

    “When its next nine-month term begins in October, the nation’s highest court is scheduled to hear arguments on the use of race in college admissions, on the intersection of free speech and gay rights and on a challenge to an environmental permitting law. ”

    I look forward to some more PLT screaming in the fall.

    Hat tip to:

        https://drudgereport.com/

  75. Nick Flandrey says:

    Conspiracy theory to blithely reported fact in less than a year.

    Bill Gates wins legal approval to buy huge swath of North Dakota farmland worth $13.5M that caused controversy in the state due to law that limits corporate ownership of ranches

    • Bill Gates has secured legal approval for his North Dakota farmland purchase
    • Gates’ firm, Red River Trust, purchased 2,100 acres in the state for $13.5 million
    • But the deal drew scrutiny under a 1932 anti-corporate farm ownership law
    • Now state AG says the deal is legal, because the land will be leased to farmers
    • Gates is the largest single owner of US farmland, with some 270,000 acres 

    n

  76. lynn says:

    “Claim: Oil Markets Face a “Doomsday Scenario” Supply Shock”

        https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/06/30/claim-oil-markets-face-a-doomsday-scenario/

    “Think you have already seen high gasoline prices? OilPrice.com claims chronic underinvestment, excessive taxation, and growing political turmoil in producer nations, could trigger a “Doomsday Scenario” as demand outstrips supply.”

    “If only there was a major oil pipeline project the Biden administration could approve, to provide Americans with a capacity buffer against what could be a nasty additional supply shock, on top of all the oil price pain people have already experienced.”

    “Thankfully the USA’s green energy transition federal government is on the case. If you find the next gasoline price hike utterly unaffordable, if you are struggling to pay the bills, you could follow Democrat advice, and borrow $50,000 to buy an EV. /sarc”

    Just because you buy an EV does not mean that you will get it.  My employee that bought a Nissan Leaf for a June 6 delivery is still driving his wife’s car.

  77. lynn says:

    “We’re dropping the flood alert as the heavy rain threat shifts further east”

       https://spacecityweather.com/were-dropping-the-flood-alert-as-the-heavy-rain-threat-shifts-further-east/

    Bummer, we could have really used the rain.

  78. brad says:

    The experts tell us that higher vaccination rates mean lower infection rates (inverse correlation). This does not appear to be the case with omicron in Germany, were the two provinces with the lowest vaccination rates have the lowest infection rates:

    The article notes that this is basically a comparison of former West Germany with former East Germany. Even today, the areas in former East Germany are a lot different – economically and culturally – from the rest of the country. A lot of the areas showing low infection rates are very rural, and basically impoverished. So there are a *lot* of confounding factors.

    Of course, that doesn’t mean the article’s idea is wrong. Who knows? But this data doesn’t mean very much…
     

  79. Alan says:

    Where in the world is Carmen Sandiego Tony Stark?? 

    https://www.thestreet.com/technology/where-is-elon-musk

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