Cold. Damp. Dreary. Like yesterday.
Cold all day. Wet, with intermittent rain. So I didn’t do much outside. Everyone from my wife (who follows all the online weather guys for us) to the national forecast said the same thing- we’re not getting freezing temps in Houston until the weekend. So I didn’t cover the trees as I’d have to do it in the rain. It was 36F and falling when I went to bed. Not freezing but way too close.
I spent the day dry and warm working on ebay stuff. I had a bunch of speakers and vintage amps/receivers piled up that all needed to be tested, photographed, measured and weighed, etc. I also needed to re-cover one grill. So I did that. Now that stuff can be listed, and the items themselves can go out of the house to storage. Unfortunately some of it will be listed ‘for repair or parts’ that I was hoping would be in working condition.
A bunch of auctions closed yesterday and I was watching prices. There was a lot of stuff that went cheap. I am afraid that people might be done buying. At some point, they will have other concerns than buying stuff they don’t really need. I am hoping to get rid of a bunch more stuff before that happens. I’m getting nervous about timing.
Which brings us to the question, “what do you really need?”
I could talk about Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. I could do the usual prepper list of categories -water, food, shelter, defense, health, welfare, hygiene, communication. Instead I’m going to ask the question, What do YOU need for YOUR threats, in YOUR location, given YOUR resources? And as a refinement, What do you STILL need?
The current world and US situation complicates the answers a bit. We are in fact living through a disaster, the global pandemic. The disaster has many different features and facets in different places and so like the blind men and the elephant, it looks different to different people in different places.
Further, in the US we have the unsettled political situation, with many people believing the current President is a usurper, and illegitimate; but even if he isn’t, his policies and party are anathema to half the population. The continued polarization of the populous makes it far more of an issue in this time than in previous times. This has many people considering the likelihood of a Civil War, or insurrection, or a massive increase in the police state and persecution of conservatives.
Pandemic and civil war are not normally high on the typical American prepper’s list of threats, but we’re currently in one, and facing the real possibility of the other.
On top of those, there is the very real threat of an economic collapse or prolonged depression, brought about or exacerbated by the pandemic, and the shift in US politics. Again, not normally an urgent threat in the US, but here we are, MUCH closer than 4 years ago, or even 6 months ago.
Three really big, massive even, threats that were barely on the radar 2 years ago, and they are suddenly top of mind for preppers. Add in the normal issues caused by human stupidity and Mother Nature, and it’s really hard to answer, What do I NEED?
Start with which of the threats do you think are most likely? How will each affect you? What do you want? Those questions will lead you to answers to what you need.
I think some version of all three threats will be active at the same time. I don’t know the sequence of cause and effect, but I do believe we’ll be engaged in some level of street fighting/terror attacks/low intensity conflict. Whether because of it, or the cause of it, there is no way our economy, mostly built on gambling with other people’s money and constant buying, will survive a de facto Civil War. Economic disruptions, with violence and civil unrest, coupled with restrictions on movement, speech, assembly, supply chain breaks, and a general breakdown in the social and civic structures we take for granted, will not be pretty.
What do I want? I want to continue living my current lifestyle with as few changes as possible. I want to shield my family from the worst aspects of the new abnormal. I want to survive to get to the recovery and rebuilding phase.
Ask, What do I need to accomplish my goals? And that will tell you what you need.
I need a safe and secure base (my home). For some people, that will mean moving, now or later when it becomes a life or death issue. Sectarian violence drives out the ‘other’. You will not want to be the last of the “whatevers” to be in your area. You can move while conserving as much of your assets as possible, or you can leave as a refugee, with nothing but the clothes on your back. Lots of people have faced choosing one or the other throughout history, and some even face it today in other parts of the US and the world. Don’t wait too long, and if you choose to stay, build your plan around that.
I need to accumulate the resources now that will be unavailable or VERY expensive later. That might mean food, a good education, medical supplies and Doctor friends, or a skill that will be hard to come by. It might mean having the tools needed for an income stream. If you weld, do you have wire, gas, and spare parts for your machines? If you sew, do you have fabric, thread, buttons, zippers, patterns, etc? Money is always good, as long as your “money” is something that will hold value in the future you see for yourself. Bolivars didn’t do so well. The dollar has already lost ~98% of its purchasing power since the institution of the Federal Reserve. It’s not impossible that it will lose the rest. No one is taking Confederate Dollars at the grocery store…
I need the support of other people. I need people to feed me work, to buy anything I have on offer. I need people to teach my kids. I need people with the skills I don’t have, whether that’s medical, technical, or political.
I may need to change my politics, or my public persona. That might mean going grey, it might mean running for the School Board. The goal is to survive. -To be here for my kids. -To rebuild if it’s possible. -To remind if it’s not.
Every one of those needs can be further unpacked into specific things to have, specific actions to take, skills to learn, or people to meet. And each one of those things can be further unpacked, and once more, and again, recursively and fractally, forever. But don’t let that dissuade you or dishearten you. You are likely to be further along than you think.
Take a mental or physical inventory of what you already have. What stuff have you been accumulating? What skills do you have? Who do you know? What processes have you already begun? Because BEGINNING is key. Start work on filling those needs once you start identifying them. Don’t wait until you have all of them documented in your 3 ring binder, start filling in where you know you are short WHILE assessing where you need to be. Start extending and building on what you have.
Every project has tasks and milestones that need to happen serially and in order. Every project has tasks that can happen in parallel. Every project has tasks that can happen in any order. Prepping is no different. Identify which of your needs can be met by which sort of task, and proceed accordingly. And when in doubt, the prepper basics are basics for a reason. Get started with them, then keep building on what you have. Always be working to improve your position.
And of course, keep stacking.
nick
Off to Nashville today to pick up the wife from her adventures in San Antonio. MIL is moved into senior living facility, house is sold, AT&T land line number moved to cell phone, Spectrum TV hooked up, yard sale complete. Dealing with some of these agencies has been, shall we say, not pleasant. I need online access to some accounts and that is proving difficult. I understand the need for security but a couple of places have made it impossible as everything leads to a dead end.
Leaving early for Nashville as there is some concern about the roads over the plateau where the altitude exceeds 2K feet. 2K feet happens to be where the NWS has stated icing conditions will become prevalent. 2.5 hour trip to the son’s house to pick up a couple of items, then 1 hour to the airport from his place on I-65 to I-40 through Nashville, ugh, horrible traffic. Once spousal unit is acquired should be 2.5 hours home from the airport.
Safe travels Ray.
Funny, re-reading my post it doesn’t feel like my “voice” today. odd. Normally my writing, even from decades ago feels like mine.
34F this morning. Bloody cold if you ask me.
n
@Greg
In an interstate highway built with 90% federal funds, how does the state go about selling the median?
Ask the State of Virginia. And Maryland — The same *Australian* company has plans to sell the scheme to that state as well. Oregon got a pass to toll all of the freeway miles around Portland, both I-5 and I-205 all the way from the bridges over the Columbia to Wilsonville.
Long term, a lot of local governments are looking at selling their surface streets to a private entity who will in turn toll residents to use the right of ways. That scenario will be the only way out for a lot of cities/counties with regard to pension obligations.
And it isn’t just blue states. As I’ve noted many times before, Dallas and Houston are technically insolvent right now due to pension obligations.
Unlike self-driving Cybertrucks, the technology exists here/now and is in active production.
In a way, we are fortunate that my former employer is run by high functioning sociopaths, many of whom think with something other than brain cells, at least in Austin.
No one is taking Confederate Dollars at the grocery store…
Maybe at the antiques shop, but a lot of those were still around in the South when I was a kid.
It seemed like a lot of people had some stashed from a great-great grandparent, particularly what I call Southern Royalty types who dominated every small town after the Civil War until the 60s.
The Klan ran the small town in FL where I grew up until 1980, but that was the modern Klan, originating in the Midwest transplants who came South after WWII.
Ah, yes, our goobermint. Tax us to build roads, then tax us to use them. Spend the tax money on pork projects to remain in power. I’ve always said you never own land in the FUSA. There is always some frickin’ goobermint agency taxing you. Don’t pay, get a lien on it and a sheriff in your gob.
Shit you can’t make up:
CDC Recommends Putting Hosiery over Your Face along with a Mask
MrsAtoz likes the “Brown Sugar” hose. I’m set.
LET THE HEELING AND MOPP4 BEGIN!
@lynn (with respect to the generator you have ordered)
I have also been looking at buying one, but am unsure about the sizing. I was looking for whole house, garage, etc. How many amps service do you have that you are using the generator to replace? A smaller unit was recommended in my case (with 150 amp service to my home/garage), I think about 20kW. IIRC, it would be air cooled (also a Generac). But I may want to upgrade to a larger size and/or a different manufacturer (maybe Kohler).
I am in north central NJ, and we have been running at least one major outage (5 days or longer) every two years, with several shorter outages (2h – 10h) every year. My wife’s arthritis and spinal issues are aggravated by the cold, so having power during outages during the winter is a major concern. For some reason, despite extensive tree trimming by the utilities, our outages have been increasing over the years. The first ten years here (I have lived here about 40 years) we had no outages of consequence.
A paper on the different studies on effectiveness of wearing a mask during COOOOVVVVIIIIID:
Masking: A Careful Review of the Evidence
I believe it is more important to wash your hands than wear a mask. Basic hygiene, too. Vegas casinos are packed with mask wearers. When you see the ciggie smoke plumes, you know masks aren’t doing shiite. Yet, Vegas isn’t front and center with massive COVID deaths. Geezers should be dropping left and right. Social distancing is inactivating one slot machine between another. Other than that, people sit together and ignore distancing.
Governor Abbott, please drop the mask mandate completely. Let businesses destroy themselves with mask mandates. Of course, in commie run SA, the mayor and council will try to shove masks down our throats until End Times.
Shit you can’t make up:
CDC Recommends Putting Hosiery over Your Face along with a Mask
MrsAtoz likes the “Brown Sugar” hose. I’m set.
LET THE HEELING AND MOPP4 BEGIN!
Go with Peavey, the brand the Hooters girls wear in most of the restaurants.
Two power blips this morning, but no sustained outages so far.
If we are just on laptops, the router/cable modem UPS is good for a couple of hours.
Governor Abbott, please drop the mask mandate completely. Let businesses destroy themselves with mask mandates. Of course, in commie run SA, the mayor and council will try to shove masks down our throats until End Times.
Nothing will change in Texas until the Legislature adjourns at the end of June.
The Lieutenant Governor and the Legislature could end the silliness at any time and, but Abbott is taking the heat. Maybe @Lynn is right that he isn’t running again next year.
If you read through, and Google a bit, you find that:
– the machines were not made by Dominion
– the equipment was originally made by Unisys after they got the design from a Canadian company
– the company was then sold by Unisys to a subsidiary of Diebold.
– Diebold later sold that company to a competitor
– that competitor was forced to sell off the IP of Diebold’s company as part of an anti-trust settlement
– the machines are relatively old and are no longer made
– similar errors didn’t happen in other races around the state that had hand recounts. (These machines are used all over NH and many adjacent states.)
– the NH secretary of state believes that the ballot count sheets that were turned in were incorrect.
AND the clincher: the support and service of the AccuVote machines is not done by Dominion, but by a small company in NH, LHS Associates.
Nick asked yesterday why the Charsima Carpenter story is coming out now. An actor on one of Joss Whedon’s recent films came forward with similar stories. A number of other actors have supported his story and hers.
Nick asked yesterday why the Charsima Carpenter story is coming out now. An actor on one of Joss Whedon’s recent films came forward with similar stories. A number of other actors have supported his story and hers.
I don’t discount the Disney investor call happening today, especially if you see stories in The Atlantic.
The rumor mill has AT&T and Comcast contemplating throwing Warner and Universal together to compete with Disney/Fox/ABC. Whedon’s last pre-cancellation accomplishment was fixing “Justice League” just enough so the “Wonder Woman” movies were approved, Warner’s only DC/comic book movies to work as of late.
Maybe Warner was close to announcing something with Whedon. That would be bad for Disney because the Marvel franchise is drifting. I doubt the “Wakanda” line in the “Coming 2 America” trailer would have happened a few years ago, especially a Super Bowl spot.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8uwZMP5bUg
Disclaimer: I have Disney stock.
And why did the first actor come forward now?
I absolutely hate this current idea of denouncing people 20-30-40 years later. No one remembers what happened accurately, even the accuser. They’ve told themselves the story of what happened so many times, the corners are rounded off and the sharp bits are sharpened. Witnesses and people in general are susceptible to suggestion. Our memories are generally terrible for facts. Any evidence is long gone, so the whole thing comes down to name calling and character wars.
I get it that in cases of abuse, especially if the victim is young, they often can’t come forward until much later. Sometimes after the death of the abuser, sometimes once their power has been reduced. I get that. I’ve seen it with my own eyes.
This case is not that. He was mean to her. He said rude things. He called her names. That is abusive but it isn’t “abuse” the way the word is normally understood. “He called me fat when I was pregnant” isn’t actionable. It’s a dick move, but she makes her living FROM HER APPEARANCE. If her appearance changes, so does her employ-ability. You can debate whether that is right or wrong, desireable or not, but she’s hired to play a role, and that comes with a list of requirements, appearance being one of them. You can’t hire a brunette for the lead role in “Legally Blonde” unless she’s not a brunette at the moment. And she can’t go back to being a brunette once shooting starts.
Contracts for roles that are based on appearance usually have performance clauses that insist the appearance be maintained. (at least they did when I was part of that world) She new the deal when she signed the contract. To complain 20 years later is just whining and is most likely agenda driven.
FWIW, I don’t have any opinion about the guy’s character. Never met him, never worked with him. He sounds like a dick. Studios LIKE dicks if they bring in MONEY, which is why studios exist. The best career advice I ever got was to go to Hollywood and work in the industry, instead of going to NYC to work in theatre, because “in Hollywood, no one cares if you’re an asshole, as long as you are good at what you do.” Yes, I was both of those things. I gave up on the one, and am working on the other. Getting married and having kids, as well as being out of the toxic environment has helped with the @sshole part. I no longer care about being good at those other things.
n
Should home schooling materials (appropriate textbooks, workbooks, blank worksheets (one of the, ahem, negatives from the pandemic wfh is access to the office copier, fax and office supplies closet), etc.) to get your kids through 12th grade(?) be on your prep list? I’m guessing you and your spouse are capable of covering most of the necessary curriculum, and if so, that’s yet another possibly barterable skill.
@lynn; I presume any electrical requirements of the NG delivery infrastructure are supported by generators that run on something other than NG?
I absolutely hate this current idea of denouncing people 20-30-40 years later. No one remembers what happened accurately, even the accuser.
Regardless of the year, a time span of roughly two generations in the past nearly always looks like a more innocent time in retrospect.
The 80s are an anomally IMHO because the difference between 40 years ago and 30 is basic cable hitting the suburbs, and few in the Ferris Bueller generation can really claim innocence entering the 1990s.
The time span between 2000 and 2010, when broadband hit the suburbs was further loss of innocence and similar in terms of scale, but the 80s had Chicago ad executive John Hughes get lucky penning teen dramedies which most view as the reality of the decade, even most of the people my age who know better.
Recovery from the Wuxu Flu will probably consume the next decade. God help us all when the accusations of something happening during lockdowns resurface ~ 2040.
Recent?
<a href="https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/joss-whedon-a-timeline-of-https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/joss-whedon-a-timeline-of-allegations-against-the-buffy-the-vampire-slayer-creator-234150066.html allegations-against-the-buffy-the-vampire-slayer-creator-234150066.html”>
Almost 4 years ago? I guess the dude needed to get his name in the news and this was his only way to do it.
Whedon is a flaming liberal like most of Hollywood. It’s kind of amusing to watch liberals turn on their own.
@Lynn (from yesterday)
On a very simple population model, they are saying 10% of deaths per year can be traced to fossil fuels. Well, did they do a distribution by location (no of course not), because it is worse where there are high concentrations of PM2.5. That is typically, though not totally, 3rd world cities. Just based on where 7 billion people live, 8 million of those deaths are not first world. Account for where PM2.5 is a serious problem and I suspect we are looking at maybe 500,000 in the developed countries (it’s a guess but sounds right). And that is only if you accept their methodology and numbers. (I am always suspicious when someone does a study that calculates a statistic that attributes x% of deaths to some cause. You look at all these studies and I think everyone has died about 10 times over from 30 different causes.)
So: 1) not a developed world problem (so neither my problem nor yours); 2) We are likely to move away from coal, oil and gas faster than the 3rd world anyway, so it will be even less of a developed world problem soon; 3) Of course there will be those (dangerous wackos is what they are) that think measures more dire than China’s one-child policy are urgently required to reduce population. It may be that reducing world-wide population over time is a good idea, but mass starvation is not going to work. As the saying goes, most governments are 3-days without food from a revolution. Best we can hope for is the wackos take their own advise. I won’t miss them.
On a lighter note, y’all will be relieved to know that Gorilla Glue Girl is back to normal, or at least what passes for normal for her: #GorillaGlueGirl: Gorilla Glue gone? ‘It’s over’.
(Probably not what @Nick had in mind when he talked about finding alternate revenue streams to support yourself during an economic downturn.)
And of course and as usual, long-tailed primate see, long-tailed primate do: “A Louisiana man who thought ‘Gorilla Glue Girl’ Tessica Brown was ‘lying’ ended up in the emergency room himself after he applied the powerful adhesive to his lip.”
All of whom need sufficient Gorilla Glue appropriately applied so as to prevent any (further) procreation.
Got any of these computers? (From the SANS Newsletter)
And careful about where you host your web sites — and backup everything:
Thieves may have disabled Ring doorbell during attempted carjacking:
Stodgy old Ethernet cables still have their advantages.
I am going to name my single bay garage door opener Killer. Because Killer killed another 16 watt (100 watt equiv) LED light bulb this morning. This one lasted about 3 or 4 months.
Ok, I may need to replace Killer. Killer has failed to close using the remote in the mornings for a week now. I have had to get out of the truck, go in the backyard, go in the garage, and push the button inside the door to close the door. But in the evenings, Killer works just fine with the remote to open the door. Something weird is going on here.
Home from my errand and child retrieval. Expedition is having some issue though. Three times it stuttered and died. The last two times the oil light came on. I checked the first time and it was low so I added a quart. The second time it was still in the ‘normal’ range of the dipstick. Expy will be visiting the car dr this weekend I guess. Good thing I have a backup.
“Should home schooling materials (–snip—) to get your kids through 12th grade(?) be on your prep list? “– yep, and I have vintage books sufficient to the task of taking them all the way thru college level in math, english lit, history and a couple of different technical trades. If I’m at that point, learning to be a machinist, plumber, carpenter, or electrician is going to be a lot more useful than studying the devolution of amazonian tribes…. I have alternative textbooks for their current and next level of in school learning too, but they’re really dumbed down.
I’m bidding on a complete late 60s Encyclopedia Britannica, which is the newest set I’d consider. The only issue is space to keep it. I grew up with the EB in the 1965 edition, and love it. The World Book set from the early 70s I love a lot less. I’m still p!ssed at my sibs for getting rid of my parents’ EB. Mid 60s EB and a couple of other sets sell for way more than you’d expect, if you weren’t a prepper or homeschooler.
n
@lynn, have you changed the batteries? There might be a radio source interfering with it in the AM that is not there in the PM…
LED lights are notorious for spurious emissions that can block legit radio. IE, flood lights on a timer or sensor…
n
These are the sorts of people who consider themselves to have the moral high ground, to be better than the ‘bitter clingers’ in flyover land…
n
@lynn — what @nick said about LEDs interfering with garage remote signals.
I helped my son-in-law install a new Genie garage door opener last week. (He did the work, and I recited the directions.)
Noticed in the instruction manual that Genie does not recommend the use of LED lights in the opener ‘head’. They are susceptible to vibration, and the LED light can give off radio interference with the remote’s wireless signal. They did recommend a specific Genie-brand LED light.
I’d replace (or remove) the light in the opener ‘head’ and see how the remote works. Since the wall control works, it’s probably not the unit, but interference.
I also got him some motion-activated LED garage ‘tube’ lights from Costco. Not installed yet, but perhaps the motion-control aspect will replace the function of the lights in the opener ‘head’. The 4 foot LED fixtures from Costco cost $30 each; https://www.costco.com/koda-46%22-led-linkable-shop-light-with-motion-sensor-and-remote.product.100658326.html (only available in warehouse). They are linkable, so you can connect them together.
Let me chime in as a victim of child abuse, physical, mental and sexual, from the age of 7 to the age of 18.
I very vividly remember the events, almost down to what I was wearing. I can tell you the color of the rooms, describe the lights, describe the instruments of abuse, and in many cases I can remember the date. These are things that are not easily forgotten. No corners rounded, sharp bits are still present. These events started over 63 years ago. The events makes such a severe impression on the mind that they cannot be forgotten.
Your assertion is not inline with my experiences and memories.
Ok, I may need to replace Killer. Killer has failed to close using the remote in the mornings for a week now. I have had to get out of the truck, go in the backyard, go in the garage, and push the button inside the door to close the door. But in the evenings, Killer works just fine with the remote to open the door. Something weird is going on here.
If it just started recently, it may be temperature fluctuations morning vs. evening causing the track to shift slightly.
Does the garage door move at all? Lights?
I’ve lived in two houses now where the wife of the previous occupying couple took out the track of the door at some point entering/exiting the garage. Once that happens, with modern doors and the thinner metals of the components, the system is never completely right again, no matter how many times the techs come out and tweak things.
At the current house, I can’t close the garage door on my side at night after the door has been open at sunset without manually disengaging the drive, pulling the door down, and reengaging. If I try to use the opener, the door moves about an inch, reverses, and stops with the lights blinking.
No problem closing the door in the mornings.
When I go back to an office job regularly, I’ll have the techs out to look at the door … again.
Interesting about the LED bulbs. I’ll have to look at that since the door on my side doesn’t seem to work at all sometimes despite changing the batteries in the remote. I have a pair of very low wattage LED bulbs in the opener.
I actually miss the FEIT 60 watt equiv. CFL bulbs at Costco. I used those for years without problems in garage door openers and other places like closets without a problem.
@lynn (with respect to the generator you have ordered)
I have also been looking at buying one, but am unsure about the sizing. I was looking for whole house, garage, etc. How many amps service do you have that you are using the generator to replace? A smaller unit was recommended in my case (with 150 amp service to my home/garage), I think about 20kW. IIRC, it would be air cooled (also a Generac). But I may want to upgrade to a larger size and/or a different manufacturer (maybe Kohler).
I am in north central NJ, and we have been running at least one major outage (5 days or longer) every two years, with several shorter outages (2h – 10h) every year. My wife’s arthritis and spinal issues are aggravated by the cold, so having power during outages during the winter is a major concern. For some reason, despite extensive tree trimming by the utilities, our outages have been increasing over the years. The first ten years here (I have lived here about 40 years) we had no outages of consequence.
I think that the 38 kW generator can produce 150 amps at 230 volts at full load. It is actually overkill for us but I am contemplating adding an ADA house to my property for my daughter. So that means another three ton air conditioner, etc.
An important consideration on my part was to get a liquid cooled four cylinder that runs at 1,800 rpm since it is fairly quiet. The air cooled V-twin motors are fairly noisy, a lawn mower in a box. And going from the base 28 kW liquid cooled generator to the 38 kW was only $2,000 more.
I cannot tell you the number of times that I fought with undersized generating equipment when I was at TXU. I went out for a black start test at Stryker Creek #2 outside Jacksonville, Texas since we were contemplating scrapping Stryker Creek #1 when the first nuclear power plant came on line at Comanche Peak SES. We had five 2,500 hp (2 MW) locomotive engines that could each provide 2,000 amps at 4,160 volts three phase for a total of 10,000 amps, 10 MW.
We started all five locomotive engines and isolated STR2 from the grid. Then we tried to start STR2. Things were going great until we had to start the 3,000 hp boiler feed pump motor. Normally, this electric motor requires 3,000 amps at 4,160 volts. But from a dead start to 3,600 rpm, the motor require three times the amount of amps for 45 seconds to get to speed. We got 30 seconds into the bfp motor start and the first locomotive engine tripped on high amps (overload). The other four tripped off immediately on high amps.
We just stared at each other in the dark as we had been planning our lunch at the local diner already. Instead, we tried our second test with a few three phase circuit breakers pulled. Same result. Pulled more breakers and switched STR1 onto the DC oil system and DC turning gear. Same result. BTW, the locomotive engines and mbfp motor are limited to one start per hour due to over heating of the startup system. We went and switched the mbfp motor onto its bypass system, a small no-no. We tried for fourth time and got that mbfp up to 3,600 rpm and immediately opened the bypass. We then completed putting STR2 on line. I left the plant at 10pm and drove back to Dallas, getting home at 1am.
I have more stories. The black start equipment rarely performs as designed. Plus, plant loads grow over time, especially 30+ years after the plant was initially built. One of the things I liked so much about the Apollo 13 movie was Fred in the mockup capsule at JSC trying to start the landing process on 13 amps (one fuel cell instead of three). I could greatly sympathize.
@ray, I was specifically talking about the persons who claim some sort of abusive behaviour, for which there is no real evidence after 20 or 30 years.
I am not talking about the sort of soul searing abuse you have hinted at.
There are lots of studies into the fallibility of most peoples’ memory. That fact that we have names for the phenomena suggests it’s widespread. My own experiences of major traumatic events, even though I believe I have strong and correct memories of the event details, have not lined up with actual contemporary evidence when it was available in the few cases where I came across something like my written witness statement produced immediately after the event. Eye witnesses are notoriously bad at remembering details. The woman that accused Kavanaugh comes to mind as the sort of thing that I was referring to.
n
BTW, Costco, that reminds me — In a rare reversal of their drift to private label, it looks like Costco discontinued carrying the Kirkland shampoo and conditioner in favor of a name brand, Pantene.
They must have received a deal they couldn’t refuse from Pantene. The old Kirkland pump bottle shampoo was a high end repackaged L’Oreal product according to legend.
I don’t care about the name on the label, but finding commonly-available soap/shampoo products that don’t make my allergies go crazy is tough. I usually keep a year’s worth of both stashed, however, so I have a bit of time.
The other upside of Kirkland brand was that you got a *lot* for $10 in a pump bottle that delivered just the right amount with one press.
NG generator
@lynn; I presume any electrical requirements of the NG delivery infrastructure are supported by generators that run on something other than NG?
Sadly, yes. All of the natural gas compressors in the Houston, Dallas, Fort Worth, Austin, and San Antonio 8 or 9 county regions are EPA non-attainment regions have electric motor drivers since 1993 ? 1994 ?. Bad, very bad to replace natural gas gas turbines or steam turbines with 50,000 hp electric motors. Very bad. We found out where they were when Texas had an extreme weather event on Labor Day weekend of 1999 ?. 113 F here in Sugar Land with rotating electrical blackouts lasting two hours or more from noon until 10pm that night. Then the natural gas grid around Houston collapsed and we lost all the natural gas fired gas turbines and steam power plants. Supposedly ERCOT now has these electric lines marked as do NOT blackout under any circumstances.
WRT fossil fuels causing deaths: 99% of how dreadful they are is due to the CO2 as a combustion product. Now, they are linking CO2 as being a cause. Well, I have been exhaling CO2 as a product of my food digestion, and now after exhaling it for 82 years, it will kill me tomorrow?
The woman that accused Kavanaugh comes to mind as the sort of thing that I was referring to.
Christine Blasey-Ford. Flown to DC from CA on Dianne Feinstein’s jet IIRC.
She was peddling pure schtick, but it was effective enough to make people hesitate and teach the Dems that the “That could be my daughter!” meme works with conservatives as well as liberals.
On a very simple population model, they are saying 10% of deaths per year can be traced to fossil fuels. Well, did they do a distribution by location (no of course not), because it is worse where there are high concentrations of PM2.5. That is typically, though not totally, 3rd world cities. Just based on where 7 billion people live, 8 million of those deaths are not first world. Account for where PM2.5 is a serious problem and I suspect we are looking at maybe 500,000 in the developed countries (it’s a guess but sounds right). And that is only if you accept their methodology and numbers. (I am always suspicious when someone does a study that calculates a statistic that attributes x% of deaths to some cause. You look at all these studies and I think everyone has died about 10 times over from 30 different causes.)
So: 1) not a developed world problem (so neither my problem nor yours); 2) We are likely to move away from coal, oil and gas faster than the 3rd world anyway, so it will be even less of a developed world problem soon; 3) Of course there will be those (dangerous wackos is what they are) that think measures more dire than China’s one-child policy are urgently required to reduce population. It may be that reducing world-wide population over time is a good idea, but mass starvation is not going to work. As the saying goes, most governments are 3-days without food from a revolution. Best we can hope for is the wackos take their own advise. I won’t miss them.
Most of the people in those cities with the extreme pollution use cow dung or human dung for cooking with. Dung burns with a lot of smoke (particulates). When you replace their dung fires with natural gas, the particulate problem goes away. India, China, and South Korea are also replacing their coal power plants with nuclear power plants on a long term. But their power demands are rising faster than their nuclear power is growing so they are failing to shut down the coal plants.
China dropped their one child policy a generation ago. The farmers are undergoing absolute disasters right now as they have nobody to help on the family farms if the one kid (always a boy !) leaves home for the big city lights.
Sooner or later, we in the first world will drop the insane move to the renewables as they are not renewable. We may move to more nukes but I doubt it. That leaves natural gas.
I just heard an electric grid in Texas warning over the radio a while ago. The wind turbines in west Texas are starting to trip offline due to vibration on their blades due to uneven icing. They hinted that the entire 25,000 MW of wind turbines will be offline for the duration of the extreme weather event until it warms up and the ice melts off. ERCOT is starting every power plant in Texas right now but, we don’t have enough fuel without the wind turbines (my opinion).
The North and South Texas grids have been connected at Jewett, Texas since the 1950s. Hopefully we can keep them together.
Our forecast for Monday night just dropped to 9 F.
https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/us/tx/richmond?cm_ven=localwx_10day
It’s worse than that, Cowboy Slim: You’ve been killing people for 82 years with your breath. How can you live with yourself, you murderer?
@lynn, have you changed the batteries? There might be a radio source interfering with it in the AM that is not there in the PM…
LED lights are notorious for spurious emissions that can block legit radio. IE, flood lights on a timer or sensor…
n
Yes, I changed the battery in the remote. I suspect that the 22 year old Sears GDO is dying. The double bay door GDO works fine though and it has two LED bulbs.
There is no evidence of the abuse I suffered. Just my memory. Those memories have been converted to a document to pass along to other family members and neighbors where I lived. Other than that, it would be my word against the abusers.
At one time my father got wind of some abuse but the lying abusers talked their way out and the abused were branded as liars.
I can also state that coming forward about the abuse was difficult. Keeping quiet was easier, less painful. So I understand those that don’t come forward. Their word against others, and a lot of emotions and reliving some very difficult and painful times. It is not easy. I cried a lot writing that document, sometimes uncontrollably shaking.
No doubt that what you are claiming does happen. But it is not a one size fits all. The issue becomes separating the real from the fake.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?textField1=30.76&textField2=-98.22#.XRDT-f5RdaQ
Wunderground defaults (for me) to what I call Bubba’s weather station. I don’t know where it is, North of town a few miles as best as I can tell. Changing it to the airport is such a pita that I’ve quit using them.
NOAA gives numbers from the local airport. Maybe three miles away as the crow flies.
@Lynn
I think the correct move is to nukes for most electrical generation, but I too doubt it will happen, or at least not before a serious power-down event proves you can’t rely on renewables. Maybe you could rely on solar in Texas, but farther north I think it’s an insane idea. We get overcast, windless, and short winter days up here in Ontario and renewables are useless on those days. Highs of 18F today and down to 10F tonight. Temperatures have been like that for the last week or so and will stay that way until late-February (and this has so far been a mild winter). I will not trust wind or solar to keep me warm or the lights on. I wish I could trust the politicians to get moving on more nuclear generation.
Noticed in the instruction manual that Genie does not recommend the use of LED lights in the opener ‘head’. They are susceptible to vibration, and the LED light can give off radio interference with the remote’s wireless signal. They did recommend a specific Genie-brand LED light.
Oh. I have been using LED bulbs in the GDOs for several years, maybe a decade with no problems until now.
I guess that I will find an incandescent bulb and switch to that for a while to see if it helps. Otherwise, Genie here I come ! In a year or two, got too many things going on now.
Maybe you could rely on solar in Texas, but farther north I think it’s an insane idea. We get overcast, windless, and short winter days up here in Ontario and renewables are useless on those days.
I have three 100 MW to 130 MW solar farms within 20 miles of me here in Fort Bend County. I wonder how well they are going to work with 1 to 2 inches of snow on them Monday and Tuesday ?
Might just be a couple of junky LED bulbs. I mean, “vibration” is killing a solid state LED lamp but an incandescent is going to be more durable?
This sounds like my dad saying “pull my finger”.
About as well as a fart in fan factory.
I rest my case.
@lynn
We got this garage door opener from Home Depot ($160): https://www.homedepot.com/p/Genie-StealthDrive-1-1-4-HP-Belt-Drive-Garage-Door-Opener-with-Battery-Backup-and-Added-Wireless-Keypad-7055-TKV/310485802
Liked that it had a big motor, battery backup, and a wall mount keypad besides the usual two remotes plus wall button. Installed fairly easily; instructions are excellent and parts are labeled and grouped to the color-coded instructions.
Biggest issue was the existing opener – the person that tightened the bolts must have been Andre the Giant. Broke one cheap socket due to the bolt being so tight. Installation took about two hours – but we went slow and careful. Worked well, and has quiet operation.
Regarding light bulbs and vibration – there are vibration-resistant light bulbs available. But I like the LED garage lights with the motion detector from Costco (link above).
My old (20y+) Genie GDO ate incandescent bulbs like they were candy. CFL’s wouldn’t work at all for some reason.
But even the 1st generation “morgue color” LEDs worked fine.
https://poweroutage.us. shows this currently:
Top Areas by Outages
Texas 32,512
Kentucky 30,177
West Virginia 24,420
Oregon 13,078
California 3,150
Cheap LED lamps buzz wideband static on the AM broadcast band as well as other bands. I wouldn’t be so worried about the led bulb on the drive head, as some motion or dark triggered floods for the yard or driveway. I can tell when my neighbor’s floods come on if I have the radio going…. Or if the unit is really old, the caps could be failing, there could be a cold solder joint, the crystal for the receiver might be failing, and the problem is related to morning cold vs being warm all day. Lots of problems COULD be the answer. If you opt to replace it, be sure you can return the unit if the same thing happens.
n
n
A major annoyance.
My 1/2″-drive sockets are mainly impact sockets. Between those and the high-quality breaker bar, they’re stronger than I am. I’m not going to break them, though the nuts, bolts, and miscellaneous nonsense are on their own if they don’t come loose. I do have some non-impact deep sockets, a few oddball sizes or shapes, and a few ordinary sockets in standard sizes because the impacts were too thick to fit into a gap, but the impacts are in the tray of the toolbox while the others rattle around below.
China dropped their one child policy a generation ago. The farmers are undergoing absolute disasters right now as they have nobody to help on the family farms if the one kid (always a boy !) leaves home for the big city lights.
The veneration of “Number One Son” is for real and not simply something the Charlie Chan movie writers made up back in the day. I’ve lived it for 30 years, and the problem was particularly acute when we lived in the same town as the self-proclaimed “boss” cousin, Number One Son of The Number One Son, Big Achoo (sp? – Uncle in Chinese).
My in-laws are Taiwanese so they didn’t live the One Child policy
I have an led light bulb from a reputable manufacturer that is in a pull chain fixture. A good portion of the time I can turn it off, then come back the next day to find it on. Didn’t happen for years when an incandescent bulb was installed, and if I swap one back in, there isn’t a problem.
@Lynn
If you have to buy an incandescent bulb, get a “rough service” bulb–made for trouble lights and other applications where they can get bumped.
IIRC, electric heaters on the wind turbines run in low temps during shutdowns to keep the bearing oil warm. Be interesting to see if any failures cause some spontaneous disassembly events when they try to restart.
@Steve F
re: Impact sockets and breaker bar.
Yup, but only for the really tough ones.
I’ve never destroyed a good quality socket (Craftsman or S-K) but I did round the ratchet wheel on a good 1/2″ ratchet trying to remove a trailer hitch ball that had been corroding for years. If I ever get around to building an edm machine I’ll make a replacement.
@ech
If you read through, and Google a bit, you find that:
– the machines were not made by Dominion
– the equipment was originally made by Unisys after they got the design from a Canadian company
– the company was then sold by Unisys to a subsidiary of Diebold.
– Diebold later sold that company to a competitor
– that competitor was forced to sell off the IP of Diebold’s company as part of an anti-trust settlement
– the machines are relatively old and are no longer made
– similar errors didn’t happen in other races around the state that had hand recounts. (These machines are used all over NH and many adjacent states.)
– the NH secretary of state believes that the ballot count sheets that were turned in were incorrect.
AND the clincher: the support and service of the AccuVote machines is not done by Dominion, but by a small company in NH, LHS Associates.
The manufacturing history is irrelevant.
The operative part of the lede is “Dominion owned”, with the implication that the owner is responsible for the software.
If the rest of it is accurate in that Republican candidates were shorted votes–with the implication that only Republican candidates were shorted votes–then the question is whether it was done in software or through some other more traditional mechanism?
IIRC, electric heaters on the wind turbines run in low temps during shutdowns to keep the bearing oil warm. Be interesting to see if any failures cause some spontaneous disassembly events when they try to restart.
So the wind turbines go from being electricity producers to electricity consumers during low extreme temperature events ? Wonderful, just what we need in Texas right now.
Start another gas turbine Fred ! What, no more turbines left ? Uh oh.
Too bad those electric heaters on the wind turbines do not extend out into the blades.
@Lynn
If you have to buy an incandescent bulb, get a “rough service” bulb–made for trouble lights and other applications where they can get bumped.
Bummer, I used to buy those back in the 1980s through 2000 or so. Then I put CFLs in the GDO, those were fairly tough. Then in 2010 I started using LED bulbs with no problems until now.
So I have to buy a box of two for $9 just to test out the LED interference theory.
https://www.amazon.com/Satco-S3929-Incandescent-Service-Shatterproof/dp/B000V52X7C/?tag=ttgnet-20
Maybe I have a incandescent around the house somewhere to check the LED interference theory.
“Dark Winter of a Grand Old Party” by Patrick J. Buchanan
https://buchanan.org/blog/dark-winter-of-a-grand-old-party-142798
So Pat Buchanan is now a Never Trumper. That is sad.
“Moreover, the liberal immigration policy Biden promised last fall has already caused a stampede to our Southern border. Some 78,000 illegal immigrants were apprehended by the Border Patrol crossing in January alone. They are now being caught at the rate of 3,000 a day.”
Here they come. Equity demands that we give up our homes to house them and our paychecks to feed them.
@Lynn
Another manufacturer, CEC, is less expensive on Amazon.
Rough service bulbs have a coating, so if you are under the car and drop a wrench on one, you aren’t going to emergency to have glass picked out of your eyes. (yes, always were safety glasses)
Sylvania used to sell “double life” bulbs with thicker filaments that were vibration resistant and rated for 130v service. but the Sylvania product now is a 120v halogen.
Give your local hardware store a call.
I walked into the local grocery shortly before the sale of 100w indandescents became a crime. They were closing them out for 25-cents apiece. Filled the cart.
It’s too bad that our US Customs didn’t start testing the pos Chinese cfl’s years ago and prevent the sub-standard carp from entering.
“Yes Mr. Ho, I’m sure you’re shocked that your supplier gave you sub standard merch. Yes Mr. Ho, we can arrange for disposal. There’s a hazmat company just down the street that is licensed for mercury waste and only charges $10 a bulb. I’m ready for your bank account number for the charges…”
Tarnation!
I didn’t know the furnace had a turbo mode!
They also have additional filament supports to prevent breakage.
habitat for humanity store had pallets of those 130v rough service lamps. There is still an exemption in the code allowing incan for rough service, afaik.
I bought a bunch.
I suspect if there is an RF interference issue, and the culprit is the courtesy light, it’s on when you try to close the door in the morning because you’ve just walked under it. and in the evening it isn’t on, because you are outside the garage. Just unscrew it to test….
I think it’s more likely that there is a bad bulb or power supply on a timer or daylight sensor though.
n
habitat for humanity store had pallets of those 130v rough service lamps. There is still an exemption in the code allowing incan for rough service, afaik.
I bought a bunch.
130 W is too hot for the garage door openers with the plastic shells over the light bulbs.
Wow, ERCOT hit 64,000 MW of load this morning at 10 am. And then 63,000 MW of load at 6 pm. Sunday is going to be interesting and Monday is going to be a freaking roller coaster (IMHO).
http://www.ercot.com/
BTW, you need to add another 25,000 to 35,000 MW to those totals for all of the chemical plants and refineries in Texas. Each plant or refinery uses 400 MW to 1,000 MW of their own self made power using topping steam turbines or combined cycles and sells the excess to the grid. Most are using natural gas as only a few use petroleum coke or equivalent. They also use the grid for frequency stabilization and immediate backup. Everybody is gonna trip offline some day.
I’ll bet he’s at One Yuc Place this weekend.
The young guys need paydays. Watt wants a ring. The Yucs have cap problems.
https://nypost.com/2021/02/12/jj-watt-potential-destinations-after-texans-release/
Gotta hurry before Biden puts the travel restrictions on flights to Florida.
habitat for humanity store had pallets of those 130v rough service lamps. There is still an exemption in the code allowing incan for rough service, afaik.
I bought a bunch.
130 W is too hot for the garage door openers with the plastic shells over the light bulbs.
Probably 130 volt, 100 watt or 75 watt. And I always take off the plastic shells for the most light.
Wow, ERCOT hit 64,000 MW of load this morning at 10 am. And then 63,000 MW of load at 6 pm. Sunday is going to be interesting and Monday is going to be a freaking roller coaster (IMHO).
Austin had lots of outages today, but Oncor put the blame on poor tree trimming. Okay.
We skipped trimming the big oak this summer, and now I’m nervous since the ice has the limbs drooping. Tomorrow might be the last day above 32 for a while.
I’ll bet he’s at One Yuc Place this weekend.
The young guys need paydays. Watt wants a ring.
https://nypost.com/2021/02/12/jj-watt-potential-destinations-after-texans-release/
So you already know that Brady and Bronk are coming back ?
Wow, ERCOT hit 64,000 MW of load this morning at 10 am. And then 63,000 MW of load at 6 pm. Sunday is going to be interesting and Monday is going to be a freaking roller coaster (IMHO).
Austin had lots of outages today, but Oncor put the blame on poor tree trimming. Okay.
We skipped trimming the big oak this summer, and now I’m nervous since the ice has the limbs drooping. Tomorrow might be the last day above 32 for a while.
I had both my big oaks (50 ft and 60 ft) at the house severely trimmed back in September ??? I left the 75 ft Cypress alone (why yes I live in a swamp) since lost it a huge 8 inch limb last January 2020 which I tried to ride to my death.
I have a 100 ft tall living oak at the office that I am scared to trim. It has over a dozen branches embedded in the ground and my local arborist did not want to offer an opinion when I asked him.
https://www.google.com/maps/@29.53517,-95.6668654,21a,35y,36.39h,75.11t/data=!3m1!1e3
“Texas grid operator braces for record electric demand, warns generators to prepare”
https://www.utilitydive.com/news/texas-grid-operator-braces-for-record-electric-demand-warns-generators-to/595005/
“The Texas electric grid is bracing for record winter peak demand next week, as a cold snap is expected to drive heating consumption. A new all-time winter system peak record is possible Monday morning, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) warned on Thursday.
The grid operator also sent a message to market participants on Monday, warning generators to “prepare to preserve fuel to best serve peak load, and notify ERCOT of any known or anticipated fuel restrictions.”
ERCOT’s current winter peak demand record is 65,915 MW, which was set in January 2018. The grid operator issued a Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) report in November that forecast a winter peak demand this season of 57,699 MW.”
“ERCOT is typically a summer peaking system, driven by air conditioning use. The system’s record peak demand of 74,820 MW was set in August 2019.”
We could see 80,000 MW load on Tuesday morning if Houston is at 9 F and Dallas is at 0 F. I don’t think that there is enough fuel to support that but I have no idea of what the real situation is.
Now just imagine adding 20 million electric cars and 10 million electric trucks to that. A freaking disaster.
So you already know that Brady and Bronk are coming back ?
Brady has a two year deal. Arians has one more year on his contract before he’ll probably hang it up for good.
Gronkowski’s mother lives in Fort Myers, two hours south. If he feels healthy enough, he’ll be back.
At this point, I’m wondering how many Yucs live at Brady’s rental during the season. Plus, IIRC, Derek Jeter is the landlord.
I had both my big oaks (50 ft and 60 ft) at the house severely trimmed back in September ??? I left the 75 ft Cypress alone (why yes I live in a swamp) since lost it a huge 8 inch limb last January 2020 which I tried to ride to my death.
Everything south of Gainesville in Florida is technically swampland. We have a talent for selling it to clueless northerners. Most of the insurance carriers for the state are technically insolvent so this bit of Tyler Durden cowardice wasn’t a surprise.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/living-florida-becomes-more-expensive-insurers-jack-rates-double-digits
I’m shocked. Shocked!
Hendry County. I can’t think of a part of the state with more poverty and misguided development.
Got my citrus trees bagged up.
n
“130 W is too hot” — 130V, 40, 60, 75, 100 w
I also grab very low wattage bulbs when I see them, like golf ball sized, with normal bases. I use them in my Halloween lighting scheme to add low level glow to a scenic element.
At this point, I’m wondering how many Yucs live at Brady’s rental during the season. Plus, IIRC, Derek Jeter is the landlord.
Must be a big place. And may make for good bonding for the team. Brady is a very goal oriented guy with an overall goal in his target. To be the best EVER.
And I can imagine that Brady can afford just any rental on the planet. If he can’t, his billionaire wife can.
@lynn, have you changed the batteries? There might be a radio source interfering with it in the AM that is not there in the PM…
LED lights are notorious for spurious emissions that can block legit radio. IE, flood lights on a timer or sensor…
n
Yes, I changed the battery in the remote. I suspect that the 22 year old Sears GDO is dying. The double bay door GDO works fine though and it has two LED bulbs.
I pulled the LED bulb out of the single bay GDO tonight after I parked my truck. My remote still did not work. So I put the LED bulb back in. Once the LED bulb timed out, I hit the remote. Worked like a champ. So, some sort of electrical problem while the light is timed on. Note, the wall button always works to raise or lower the door regardless of the light status.
Try another remote. They’re cheap. Get a keypad for outside the door.
About two years ago at my old house I replaced my Sear GDO after it stripped the gear. Over 20 years old. Bought a Chamberlin and it was practically an exact replace with newer features. Didn’t bother changing the a lot of the connection parts as they all worked; just the head, wall control, keypad and remotes. Used the old harware and sensors. Came with two CFL and recommended not using LEDs. Every thing worked great and man that belt drive was far quieter than the old chain. DC motors were faster too with slowdown at end of travel.