Another nice day, cool but clear. There was a bit of overcast late in the day yesterday but otherwise the howling wind kept the sky clear. It was a little on the cool side, but I didn’t want a jacket.
Today I’m at home, hoping to catch up on some home things. I spent part of yesterday doing pickups and drop offs. Got my plumbing supplies. Got some lego for youngest’s birthday if I don’t get something else before then (I’ve got a couple of months but hey, prepper!)
While looking for something else, I came across this old comment from 2015 and decided to clean it up and put it here. The discussion started with an article about bug out bags, and EDC gear in your bug out vehicle. It was a ridiculous article that thankfully is no longer online. It did spark some good back and forth, and some froth from me…. hopefully there are some nuggets in there still… and it doesn’t have a gear list, because that is a whole internet’s worth of posts… and beyond a few critical things, the gear probably doesn’t matter as much as the person carrying it.
nick says:-
@OFD
“You gotta figure where you are, where you might have to hump it for a while, and what can you efficiently carry with the least discomfort and pain.”
That means if you are building a bag-o-tricks to take with you while traveling, it should address your most likely problems. Those are:
Missed flight, late arrival, stuck at airport, lost or delayed luggage.
And the best things to combat those things are:
Food, entertainment, toiletries, meds, glasses if you wear contacts, an airline lounge membership, a change of clothes, and cash or credit cards. Add a blanket or (microfiber) towel for cover, or a soft hat. Not one of those is tactical [the original article was filled with tactical looking stuff which draws attention, and your typical internet article full of “preps” like a signal mirror, fishing hooks, and knives-lots of knives].
So if the UN-likely happens, and you are away from home and there is a local or regional problem, you need to get out of the region and ‘back to civilization’. For whatever reason you can’t just fly and you decide to use your bag o tricks and leave. In the most likely cases, it’s weather, transit strike, local civil unrest, or (lastly) terror attack. Assuming you can’t just stay put in a safe place for a couple of days, MONEY is your best prep here. Cash in hand and credit cards that aren’t maxed out. No survival knife or kydex will get you a rental SUV to drive thru the snow. The stuff in your bag should make your life easier WHILE getting out of town and is coincidentally the same stuff that makes a missed flight easier to deal with.
Flexibility is your second best prep. Flexibility starts with questions. Since you can’t fly, can you drive? Are cars available? Can you rent from the airport/hotel/neighborhood storefront/rent a wreck? Can you rent a truck or moving van? Can you hitch a ride with a colleague or co-worker? Is there a train? A private party willing to drive? Cab? Cheap car to purchase? Driving all the way home or just outside the affected area? If you decide to drive, will you be able to get gas and food? Or should you hit the store for some shelf stable food and some boxes of granola? Again MONEY will make this all easier. Consider options you might not normally look at. When all the cheap cars are gone, the Hummer might be available (this happened to a female co-worker who was trying to G.O.O.D. in Oklahoma before a storm. Only vehicle left at the rental was a Hummer at an eye watering rate. She took it and Got Out Of Dodge ok. Had to explain to corporate bean counters why she took a vehicle outside of the approved class, but it worked out and she got somewhere SAFE.) Sometimes the only hotels with vacancy are the high end ones. Money gives you options.
Finally and least likely, there is a SHTF event, and all normal modes of travel are out.
In that case you should start with some harder questions. Is it better to look for allies and resources locally or to start off cross country? How do you know there is anywhere to go back to? Wait and see if things improve or move quickly? Any waterways going the right direction? Do you have family or friends along the way? Company offices? MONEY, FLEXIBILITY, and also INFORMATION are once again your best preps. In a collapse or major multi-regional event, info is gonna be the hardest thing to get. And there isn’t much you can do except carry some with you (to help you get home).
I carried a garmin GPSIII for years. It had a built in basemap, with freeway exit info. It ran a long time on 4 AA batts. It showed RR tracks, waterways, and roads. (Now I download an area map in Google Maps that covers my journey.) Before I left home for a job, I looked up and mapped the closest Home Depot and Lowes stores. I had that printed out and carried in my job site folder. I carried a compass. I always got the paper maps at the car rental agency (these are specific to the local area, about 11×17 inches, and have local points of interest on them too. The local maps and points of interest were to help me gear up, and get away if I needed to. The Garmin was for guidance along the route home. In terms of gear I carried, I had my EDC knife and a multitool. I carried minimal first aid- bandaids and super glue. I had lots of flashlights, bug juice, and water purification tabs. I had a messenger style bag, not a backpack. The plan was to gear up on the way out, if possible and if needed.
If I had to start traveling, and driving was not an option at all, I’d be looking for waterways or RR tracks. I’d be looking for bicycles, canoes, or jonboats. (For one lengthy project, I mapped a route that I could get from my customer’s plant to within a couple of miles of my parents’ house by canoe. I could walk from there.)
If anyone would sell, I’d be a buyer. If not, there are always some laying around. Even a kid’s bike can hold the weight of your gear while you walk. What about a shopping cart? Wheelbarrow? I think normalcy bias will have lots of people still willing to exchange goods for money for a while until the new reality sinks in. Boots, appropriate outerwear, backpack, food and water. All should be available to buy if done right away. You are looking for packable stuff- water purification tabs, compact calories (powerbars), rain poncho, hat, what else do you need? Trash bags for rain gear and concealment are everywhere. So is clothesline or wire. You are already setting off on an impossible journey. It will only be harder with 20 pounds of stuff. Food and water should fill your pack. A partner will double your chances. Whole books have been written about the cross country journey after the SHTF, and they are worth reading for ideas and for the exercise of considering what might work for you.
Now back to real life. The most likely SHTF is the same while traveling as while at home– personal SHTF.
Sickness
Auto accident
Work accident
Mugging/robbery/assaultRather than packing a bunch of kydex, in your EDC do you have a copy of your employer’s auto insurance rider? What about their Workman’s Compensation certificate? (If you are traveling on personal business, do you have the equivalent personal info?) Do you know where the nearest Urgent Care or Emergency Room is? Do you have the address of your hotel or workplace so you can call 911? Does anyone expect you home at a specific time and do they know where you are staying? There are services that will provide a Doctor to come to your hotel, do you have their number in your phone or card in your bag? Do your co-workers at the worksite have your hotel info (to find you if you don’t show up on time, since you are vomiting your guts out from bad dinner?) While driving, do you note the exits as you pass them, or the cross streets, so you could call 911 for help and know roughly where you are?
Add travel outside the US and now you should ask yourself:
Do you know where the US embassy is? The UK or Canadian? Israeli? Have you checked in with the Embassy? Do you have a medical insurance phone number that will send an english speaking doctor to your hotel? Do you know which hospital treats Europeans? Does your employer have kidnap insurance? A Risk Management Department? Do they know where you are? Do they have a contract with any of the international medical and rescue (extraction) companies? (You can buy this sort of insurance as a private person too, it’s surprisingly affordable.) Have they given you any plans/contacts/security info? Will your company or local contact be providing drivers? Security? Accommodation? Is your local contact a native or ex-pat? Do you trust him? If you are on your own, or work for a small company, have you read the CIA world fact book entry for the country? Are you familiar with any factions or unrest? Have you read the State Department travel advisories for the country? Have you looked at a map to know where you are? What is the nearest friendly place?In my opinion, if you can’t answer these questions, you are NOT prepared for any problems with your travel, no matter how tricksie your gear is.
-and that is the crux of the matter, info and brains are your best preps for EDC or BOB or GOOD, supplemented with a bare minimum of ‘things’.
And lest anyone think all that travel stuff was overkill, while traveling for work, I’ve had co-workers in serious car accidents. I had one fall on the job and break her hip. I’ve had a friend of a friend die in a hotel room. I had a boss slip and fall in the hotel shower and be unable to work for the entire event. I’ve been food poisoned on average 5 times a year by hotels and restaurants. Once I was so sick with pneumonia I couldn’t get out of bed in Miami until I got some antibiotics. I have co-workers who were robbed at gunpoint. Two that narrowly missed getting drugged and raped in Miami (men, and they were drugged but got out of the bar in time.) One that had to race to get out of town before a hurricane hit, and one that had to drive a Hummer to Texas to avoid a tornado storm. (Same female used steristrips to close a cut on her FACE after a server fell on her at work. Her daddy didn’t raise any snowflakes.) I’ve driven home when my flight was canceled. I’ve rented SUVs to get thru snowstorms. We drove from NYC to St Louis after 911. One coworker had a car bomb explode outside his hotel in Europe. Another passed bodies stacked along the road like cordwood in Indonesia after an attack by rebels. Same guy was locked in and threatened by OUR CUSTOMER in the Middle East. And yes, my employer had kidnap insurance as we worked worldwide and throughout Africa and the middle east, as well as Colombia and some other more southern sh!tholes.
You really appreciate the value of a paper copy of insurance coverage when you’re bleeding from several places and have a broken foot after your taxi gets hit in a strange city. Or having your own first aid while bleeding from a cut on your hand in China…
I’ll admit that I carry a few more things now, since I’m traveling with my family. I have a much more complete first aid kit for example and better weapons. And several times people here have volunteered safe havens or way points if things went pear shaped while I was traveling with family. But MONEY and FLEXIBILITY are still the best preps for travel and “getting home when it drops in the pot” and they weigh very little.
Still a bit disjointed, and meant as more of a memory jog, or food for thought than a finished article, but hopefully worth the time it took to read.
And while I’m an advocate for carrying just a few critical items when traveling, and acquiring the rest as needed, I am a firm believer in having as much of the stuff you think you’ll need close to hand when at home.
So keep stacking! But also organize, “curate”, and use what you’ve got.
nick
#1 rule – Don’t travel for business regularly unless the compensation is significant enough to compensate for the physical and emotional costs as well as the risks involved in getting stuck somewhere for an extended period of time. If you are an American and still getting on a plane to parts unknown, even domestically, for work-related travel more than a couple times a year in return for an income of less than $100k US annually before taxes and benefits, you need to take a hard look about what the “opportunity” really gives you.
Absolutely.
n
–very unflattering picture accompanies the article too. Maybe people are getting tired of her.
n
I always have a reasonably current backup Android phone in my travel backpack, preloaded with OsmAnd via Fdroid and cached maps of wherever I’m going at the state level as well as any additional maps necessary to navigate at ground level the fastest route home.
My preference with Android are phones with removable/replaceable batteries (increasingly rare) as well as the capability to accept a 128 GB or larger micro SD to hold map data without worrying about deleting past files to make space. And don’t forget the paperclip “tool” to move the SIM card from your primary phone if necessary.
When I was in the USAF my first two years were spent about 40% of the time on the road traveling to other bases. I took every travel assignment I could get. I was single, live on base in the dorm, no real responsibilities to worry about. I really enjoyed the traveling. Usually traveled commercial, used military when possible. No hassles. Got to see a lot of places I would never have seen.
On my last job I traveled once a year for 6 days and that was too much. My wife usually went with me and we arrived early for the three day convention I was attending so we could make something useful out of the trip. Even that was too much travel. No longer fun.
And on another topic, ArsTechnica comments posters have turned into nothing but a massive online circle jerk with a bunch of zit faced cretins who are only able to get a date with their right hand. Most are liberal idiots whom have never had real job and are self-proclaimed experts because they read a book.
So this is what Bali looks like when they aren’t grooming the beach for tourists
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9221007/Balis-pristine-beaches-turned-garbage-dumps-island-struggles-without-tourists.html
There are several interesting points in the article. Bali ALWAYS gets the trash, they just usually have enough workers to pick it up and stay ahead of it. Most of it is Indonesian, thus local, and presumably could be handled at the source. This is befouling your own nest…
Interesting too what happens when totally discretionary spending and travel stops. There’s a lot of ‘excess’ in the world and a lot of people who normally sop it up. As the world economy contracts, being one of the people who is dependent on bucketfuls of money sloshing around, isn’t going to be good.
Where does the local .gov in Bali put the trash it collects from the beach?
n
“because they read a book”
–isn’t it more likely that they read an ARTICLE online about that book?
the death of competence comes hand in hand with the death of real accomplishment.
n
I’d say it’s NOT one of the safest areas if you can be kidnapped in broad daylight. And it points out that your zip code won’t protect you from crime.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9220117/Man-kidnapped-broad-daylight-one-Mexicos-safest-neighborhoods.html
Keeping in mind, he’s not some ordinary citizen, if this is the ‘safest’ area, what are the others like?
and if they’re such lovely people, maybe we should invite a couple 10s of millions over for tea? That couldn’t POSSIBLY change the character of our own cities and neighborhoods, could it? /sarc
n
–very unflattering picture accompanies the article too. Maybe people are getting tired of her.
The Mail is working the Schadenfreude, especially this time of year, but, in general, I think the British see through the antics.
American men still want to have sex with the Cocktail Waitress or she would have been gone already.
Where does the local .gov in Bali put the trash it collects from the beach?
If they don’t use an old fashioned garbage barge to make the trash someone else’s problem, the solution is most likely a “Resource Recovery” power plant someplace out of the way, essentially a high temperature incinerator turning a generator.
Pinellas County, Florida has an advanced plant located in the heart of some of the priciest commercial real estate in the county just north of St. Petersburg along 275. The nearby landfill closed decades ago.
Isn’t it wonderful how our elected representatives grant themselves freedom of speech, but not to the people?
Even in the USA with the 1st amendment you can face legal consequences for various kinds of speech, including saying certain things about stocks. Say that same words in congress and nothing happens.
They are immune from insider trading too. as seen recently
nn
https://dailycaller.com/2021/02/04/biden-approval-rating-poll-democrats-republicans/?utm_source=piano&utm_medium=onsite&utm_campaign=622
Well I think it depends on who you ask.
They are immune from insider trading too. as seen recently
The Dem female voters in the wealthy suburbs of DC and the tech hubs who currently decide elections don’t necessarily view insider trading as a problem because they would do it themselves if given the opportunity. Anything to protect the McMansion and German grocery getter.
“We worked *hard* for this.”
They were even willing to let Kelly Loeffler get away with it in GA. It is a shame that 300,000 Republicans and/or Libertarians stayed home on January 5.
That is the next problem that is being faced at the MIL’s house. The move to the senior facility was yesterday. Wife’s brother and wife had to come down to stay in the house to protect what is left. The neighbors saw the moving van and would trash the inside of the house in a heartbeat to steal wire and plumbing. It happened before at the house across the street and a house to addresses further away. House sold, people moved, house trashed the same night.
Yard/Garage sale is happening tomorrow, Saturday and Sunday. Some local guy from her church is doing everything. He keeps 30% of any money collected. The house flipper will take possession of the house on Monday and then it is his problem.
Congress passes laws routinely that favor them. If the law restricts us regular serfs congress makes certain to put in an exception for themselves.
Insider trading runs rampant with any government official, including locals. Case in point.
Amazon is building a larger $187 million facility about 30 miles from here. Will employ 800 people and will involved 400 large trucks each day on the roads. People in the area knew something was up because of some land preparation. Guess who bought a lot of land in close proximity to the project? Yep, the local mayor and city planning officials, state representative and the governor. All conveniently before the project was started and announced to the public.
These officials claim it was just coincidence and all had been looking for land in the area long before Amazon made a decision. Which I believe is not true as they only started looking after Amazon made them known of the project.
Of course these officials will now sell the land at a significant profit to developers for housing, stores and other infrastructure items. Some of the land may even be purchased by the state for road improvements, at current value, rather than what was paid.
The only good thing about this project was that no state, county, or city tax relief was provided to Amazon. Which makes me believe that something else was promised to local officials as Amazon does very little for nothing.
That is the next problem that is being faced at the MIL’s house. The move to the senior facility was yesterday. Wife’s brother and wife had to come down to stay in the house to protect what is left. The neighbors saw the moving van and would trash the inside of the house in a heartbeat to steal wire and plumbing. It happened before at the house across the street and a house to addresses further away. House sold, people moved, house trashed the same night.
My Bat Guano neighbors in Florida would steal water from empty houses and stripped the appliances out of one home abandoned by the owner when the Pentagon spirited him out of the country ahead of an arrest warrant from the Sheriff.
This was a “good” neighborhood, military contractor/retirees doing the thefts.
In 1905, George Washington Plunkitt called that “honest graft.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_W._Plunkitt
https://www.google.com/books/edition/Safire_s_Political_Dictionary/q6ARDAAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&pg=PA322&printsec=frontcover
This was a “good” neighborhood, military contractor/retirees doing the thefts.
Good you put that in quotes. Expensive, maybe, “good,” not so much.
Which do you want first, a ride on the Falcon 9 or a jab of the Covid vaccine?
From BH in the Fort Bend Journal:
“Apart from “Life is short,”, what other expressions do you use before you make a bad decision ?”
I can think of at least one, “Here, hold my beer !”.
Wait, “But baby, don’t you …”.
Do you think that the failure rate of Falcon 9 is better than 1 in 99 ?
I highly doubt that it is 1 in a million.
Which do you want first, a ride on the Falcon 9 or a jab of the Covid vaccine?
I’ll take two jabs of the Pfizer covid vaccine first. Then I’ll ride that monster. And with a barf bag or ten.
The only good thing about this project was that no state, county, or city tax relief was provided to Amazon. Which makes me believe that something else was promised to local officials as Amazon does very little for nothing.
If nothing else, the warehouses “improve” the tax base, depending on your point of view.
Outside Tampa, the county commission looked the other way while Amazon plowed under the most productive tomato fields in the world to build the warehouse facility that serves the city and eastern suburbs.
Amazon pays a lot more property taxes. The resulting tomato shortage in the US was a minor inconvenience.
Turns out Israel is using the Pfizer mRNA vaccine. They have been getting large supplies in return for keeping very good records on the results and feeding them back to Pfizer.
I’ll take two jabs of the Pfizer covid vaccine first. Then I’ll ride that monster. And with a barf bag or ten.
My wife took the Moderna, which the VA dispenses.
The Pfizer vaccine is touchier about handling and has to be kept a lot colder.
For some reason, however, the Subcontinent employees of the VA insisted on getting Pfizer and had to go through St. Davids to get their desired shot.
–how many have delivered healthy babies?
n
–Play stupid games, win stupid prizes. And now the couple’s autistic kid will be raised by the grandparents.
n
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9223991/Couple-killed-row-shoveling-dumping-snow-neighbors-yard.html
–Play stupid games, win stupid prizes. And now the couple’s autistic kid will be raised by the grandparents.
That’s Scranton Joe territory!
Something odd is in the water in that part of the country. The Philadelphia Eagles stadium is the only NFL facility with a jail facility and arraignment courtroom *inside* the stadium.
Mowed the back yard.
Really like my battery powered TORO.
n
“Turns out Israel is using the Pfizer mRNA vaccine. They have been getting large supplies in return for keeping very good records on the results and feeding them back to Pfizer. ”
–Israel is essentially being the very first widespread clinical trial.
n
Good news. There are 10s of millions of doses of the J&J and Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine in a warehouse in Baltimore. A third party vaccine company was paid to make them under license as a part of Operation Warp Speed. These vaccines are not as good as the mRNA vaccines in preventing catching COVID-19, but are just as effective at preventing hospital stays and death.
https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/millions-of-covid-vaccine-doses-just-sitting-there/
J&J will be filing for an EUA this week and the FDA may approve it faster than they did with the mRNA vaccines. (Those took 3 weeks!) As a link in the story above says, they probably could turn it around in 48 hours if they wanted to. Last week I contacted my Congress team and the White House, asking them to push the FDA for rapid approval. Literally 10s of thousands of deaths could be stopped. J&J may be able to release 100 million doses by the end of the month. This is a single shot vaccine, btw.
As an aside, Pfizer/BioNTech are approaching human trials of an mRNA flu vaccine. If it works like has been hinted at, it may be “universal” and not need to be tweaked for the “likely” new strains.
I have been wondering how many people will take the second shot to get the elevation of the covid vaccine from 50% ??? to 95% ? I am betting that quite a few skip the second shot due to a myriad of reasons: death, etc. The single shot would be much better for a certain type of people (street, drug addicts, etc.). Also, it is becoming clear that we are going to have to have a covid vaccine booster each year for the rest of our lives.
My son took a universal flu vaccine four times in the US Marine Corps from 2005 to 2009 along with 30+ other vaccinations including smallpox. The experimental flu vaccine made him and his entire battalion sick as dogs each time. They got the vaccine shots then went for a five mile jog. Then everybody puked all night. Better in the barracks than in the field in Iraq or Afghanistan.
Mowed the back yard.
Really like my battery powered TORO.
n
How many times would you need to charge it, exchange the batteries, or drag a cord to cut my 1.2 acres at the house ?
My lawn mower dude uses a 28 hp ZTR (zero turn radius) riding mower to cut my yard. And my neighbors.
And lest anyone think all that travel stuff was overkill, while traveling for work, I’ve had co-workers in serious car accidents. I had one fall on the job and break her hip. I’ve had a friend of a friend die in a hotel room. I had a boss slip and fall in the hotel shower and be unable to work for the entire event. I’ve been food poisoned on average 5 times a year by hotels and restaurants. Once I was so sick with pneumonia I couldn’t get out of bed in Miami until I got some antibiotics. I have co-workers who were robbed at gunpoint. Two that narrowly missed getting drugged and raped in Miami (men, and they were drugged but got out of the bar in time.) One that had to race to get out of town before a hurricane hit, and one that had to drive a Hummer to Texas to avoid a tornado storm. (Same female used steristrips to close a cut on her FACE after a server fell on her at work. Her daddy didn’t raise any snowflakes.) I’ve driven home when my flight was canceled. I’ve rented SUVs to get thru snowstorms. We drove from NYC to St Louis after 911. One coworker had a car bomb explode outside his hotel in Europe. Another passed bodies stacked along the road like cordwood in Indonesia after an attack by rebels. Same guy was locked in and threatened by OUR CUSTOMER in the Middle East. And yes, my employer had kidnap insurance as we worked worldwide and throughout Africa and the middle east, as well as Colombia and some other more southern sh!tholes.
My dad had his fishing buddy fall on the steps down to their boat (20+ ft skiff) when they were fishing the Amazon river in Brazil about 15 or so years ago. He broke his shoulder when he landed. They immediately flew back to the USA where his buddy got a shoulder implant.
I guess also by not haven taken Federal funding to do their vaccine research gives Pfizer more leeway to do something like this.
How many times would you need to charge it, exchange the batteries, or drag a cord to cut my 1.2 acres at the house ?
You need a big riding mower for an acre.
I did 10,000 sq ft of grass in Florida with the biggest-engined push mowers Sears sold, and I burned out two in 10 years despite annual maintenance. The self propulsion drives never held up pushing through the St. Augustine.
I have about 1/3 of the amount of grass now, but I still use a big 7.0 HP Craftsman (Husqvarna-made!) bought in 2004 to get the job done in about 20 minutes. That reminds me — the oil change and filter are due.
How have 50% of Israel’s citizens been vaccinated at least once ? They must have their own vaccine plant with a bioreactor.
Yes, Israel has a very developed drug industry. They have R&D and manufacturing. Teva Pharmaceuticals is a top-15 drug company and the largest generic manufacturer in the world. I’ve gotten generics from them before from my mail order pharmacy.
India is also big in generics, and has the largest vaccine manufacturing company in the world. They are making one of the vaccines under license (Oxford, IIRC) and will be making 1 billion+ doses this year.
There was a tweet from a writer that said “dozens” of pharma companies could make the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine. Here is why that isn’t going to happen anytime soon.
(The TL;DR is that one of the steps, encapsulating the mRNA in lipids, is the choke point – it takes bespoke machines that are not off the shelf.)
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/02/02/myths-of-vaccine-manufacturing
You know, I am wondering how much the world owes to Israel for the technological advances that they have premiered over the years. Almost as many as the USA but with only 2% of the population.
Where does the local .gov in Bali put the trash it collects from the beach?
If they don’t use an old fashioned garbage barge to make the trash someone else’s problem, the solution is most likely a “Resource Recovery” power plant someplace out of the way, essentially a high temperature incinerator turning a generator.
You would be fascinated to know how difficult those incinerators are to run. Any metal in the trash that was not removed before the conveyor going into the furnace plates out on the economizer walls. Then you need a week long shutdown to SCRAPE all the metal off the tubes with a 400 psi sandblaster session to finish the job. The light metals, tin and nickel, are the worst. Yup, a soup can.
Don’t ask me how I know this. I also know that dynamite will not remove the metal from the walls.
How many times would you need to charge it, exchange the batteries, or drag a cord to cut my 1.2 acres at the house ?
You need a big riding mower for an acre.
He cuts the entire 1.2 acres (minus the house, 5 car wide driveway, and garage) in about 30 minutes. That ZTR can really fly. Then he weed eats and blows the grass off the patio and driveway in another 30 to 45 minutes.
Should we save everyone’s time and just move to the sentencing?
‘If you decline this invitation, we reserve any and all rights, including the right to establish at trial that your refusal to testify supports a strong adverse inference regarding your actions (and inaction) on January 6, 2021,’ Raskin noted.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9224913/Democrats-demand-Donald-Trump-testify-oath-Senate-impeachment-trial.html
Meh. Whatever it takes to accelerate towards a vote on whether to convict. The left is never going to get the 2/3 they need. So, the sooner you can have that vote and it fail the sooner we can move on to other antics.
They probably dump it in the ocean on the opposite side of the island to go out with the tide so the current and prevailing winds can make it somebody else’s problem.
Do they have to sort through all the trash by hand to pick out anything metallic? I guess they can use electromagnets to pull out the steel but what about the non-ferrous metals?
+1…but the Dems will never give up the opportunity to ornate to no end so they can use some snippets in their re-election campaign ads. Our government has become a circus.
The new EGO ZTR battery powered mower will easily handle 1.2 acres.
https://egopowerplus.com/zero-turn-riding-mower-zt4204l
It can use six 10Ah batteries for maximum power. It will even charge a phone while mowing.
If I had not just recently purchased a new commercial grade ZTR mower I would be on this like a welfare addict on a stimulus check.
You know, I am wondering how much the world owes to Israel for the technological advances that they have premiered over the years. Almost as many as the USA but with only 2% of the population.
The mainstream Intel CPU line for most of the last 20 years, including the chips that made the Apple deal possible, came out of the research facility in Israel.
The big downside is that their military and intelligence services get involved with the research and I doubt anyone really knows the reach of Mossad into infrastructure all over the world as a result.
*In my opinion* they are tied into the US cellular phone network at least at the transaction detail level via Amdocs as well as any Internet infrastructure protected by Checkpoint firewalls, including ZoneAlarm. It is an informed opinion, however — I’ve had first hand experience with both companies at my telecom jobs, and the management, even staffing the American divisions, screamed “Israeli Defense Force”.
Ooohhh, Arstechnica banned me for 24 hours for telling those sniveling little zit monkeys how I felt about their idiotic posts.
I had my first shot today. Quite convenient, in and out in 45 minutes. Dozens offront liners working and hundreds getting shots. Second scheduled for March 4th and I will return!
No, as a former rocket scientist, I have no desire whatsoever to ride in a Musk rocket.
that’s what I suspect too.
n
auction last night, Ruger Mini-14 sold for $900 + 25% tax and fees.
someone paid $8 / round for 556 green tip! It has to be that he didn’t understand his price was x 8 boxes….. in stead of price FOR 8 boxes. He’s an idiot either way.
Someone else paid over $1.5o/rnd for ordinary 9mm
and someone paid $2/rnd for 9! Holy cow people are getting desperate.
n
My lawn mower dude uses a 28 hp ZTR (zero turn radius) riding mower to cut my yard.
For comparison, the late 1940s VW Beetles had 25 hp. They could carry four adults in reasonable comfort at 60 mph. On February 17, 1972, the 15,007,034th Volkswagen Beetle came off the assembly line, breaking a world car production record held for more than four decades by the Ford Motor Company’s iconic Model T, which was in production from 1908 and 1927. Both cars could be maintained by their owners using simple tools.
We have come a long way.
Holy cow people are getting desperate.
Or, stupid. FIFY. Just-in-timers.
Should we save everyone’s time and just move to the sentencing?
‘If you decline this invitation, we reserve any and all rights, including the right to establish at trial that your refusal to testify supports a strong adverse inference regarding your actions (and inaction) on January 6, 2021,’ Raskin noted.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9224913/Democrats-demand-Donald-Trump-testify-oath-Senate-impeachment-trial.html
I think that the dumbrocrats are going to try to ban Trump from future office without successfully impeaching him.
Any metal in the trash that was not removed before the conveyor going into the furnace plates out on the economizer walls.
Do they have to sort through all the trash by hand to pick out anything metallic? I guess they can use electromagnets to pull out the steel but what about the non-ferrous metals?
Electromagnets to get most of it. Since nickel alloys are non-magnetic, oh boy. I was working about a 150 ft away from a steam boiler when they were trying to clear six feet of nickel out of the bottom. They first used dynamite, that was exciting and non-successful. The morons did not even warn us, we got our warning with the first “whoommpp”. Then they used six guys with jackhammers. That was interesting and eventually worked.
Catching up on my reading. From drwilliams on Feb 1
Had this debate with someone else. The simple counter is: explain Australia. For reference:
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/editorials/article-australia-crushed-the-pandemic-canada-didnt-why/
This is a Canada specific article of course. The reference to the Atlantic provinces is that the 4 of them blocked travel early at the provincial level and locked-down. They now have case-loads in the single or low double-digits and fairly loose restrictions but insist that anyone from out of province self-isolate for 14 days. I am in Ontario which has about 2,000 new cases everyday and I am back under full lockdown – go out and buy groceries only. If we had locked-down early and hard, I wouldn’t be stuck at home now. Lockdowns work.
You know, I am wondering how much the world owes to Israel for the technological advances that they have premiered over the years. Almost as many as the USA but with only 2% of the population.
The mainstream Intel CPU line for most of the last 20 years, including the chips that made the Apple deal possible, came out of the research facility in Israel.
The x64 instruction set came out of the AMD research facility and fab in Israel. Intel activated their cross licensing agreement with AMD and got it also. Otherwise we would be running $3,000 Itanium cpus now.
https://www.extremetech.com/computing/285012-farewell-godspeed-itanic-intel-to-discontinue-the-itanium-family
I went by my cleaners to get my office shirts today and the landlord had locked them out on Feb 1 due to back rent. I called the landlord and he gave me the cleaner’s cell phone number. I called him and asked what do we need to do to get you guys back in business ? He is working with a lawyer and trying to restructure the lease and promised to get back to me. I’ve been using them on and off since 1978.
We have ruined our country with this epidemic lockdown. It will take a decade for everything to settle out.
To what extent? What data/study shows lockdowns work? Should you destroy your country’s economy? Australia is isolated and stopping international tourists probably helped, but who knows for sure? Nobody knows.
But, but, lockdowns WORK!
With the strange BIOS and different boot system.
“More than 80% of Texas Republicans believe baseless 2020 election fraud claims, UH poll finds”
https://www.chron.com/politics/article/texas-republicans-election-fraud-survey-15925257.php
Well duh ! The Houston Comical shows its colors again and again.
The x64 instruction set came out of the AMD research facility and fab in Israel. Intel activated their cross licensing agreement with AMD and got it also. Otherwise we would be running $3,000 Itanium cpus now.
The instruction set wasn’t enough. The Pentium IV architecture was a disaster, and Itanium was never intended for laptops.
The shock emergence of the Core architecture with the dramatic decrease in power consumption set set AMD back 15-20 years in terms of market share, almost putting them out of business.
Itanium wasn’t a terrible solution for servers, but Intel’s mistake was trying to make it backwards compatible and trying to avoid the instrumentation/recompile cycle for application level code that really made PA-RISC work.
Well, I guess you can wait for the studies. They will be out in, oh, 2-3 years and then contested and challenged and in the end ignored because it will be too late. In the meantime, it is worthwhile looking at how different countries have handled the pandemic and with what results as practical examples. Australia is compelling evidence that lockdowns can and do work. Of course nothing is free – there are huge costs. Much of Canada is locking-down poorly, which is even worse as you get both the costs and the deaths. Finally, Canada is isolated too. We have one border – with the USA, and that has been closed to casual travel for months. This is not dissimilar to Australia which has no land borders, but is in a region with far more (3-4 billion) people.
I went by my cleaners to get my office shirts today and the landlord had locked them out on Feb 1 due to back rent. I called the landlord and he gave me the cleaner’s cell phone number. I called him and asked what do we need to do to get you guys back in business ? He is working with a lawyer and trying to restructure the lease and promised to get back to me. I’ve been using them on and off since 1978.
That sucks. A good independent cleaners is an endangered species. The local chain in Austin has damaged or lost pricey costume pieces we’ve entrusted to them over the years.
Before the Egghead Software Ponzi imploded at the end of the 90s, the store closest to my house, where I worked off and on during college, disappeared one morning because the manager, promoted from floor sweeper and cashier by the company in the interest of empowering women, was functionally illiterate and could not comprehend the letters sent by the landlord informing her that the parent company had not paid the rent in a year.
Oops.
The landlord is probably still scratching his head over that one 22 years later. The manager fronted that she could read at something above an elementary school level, but couldn’t really.
Just got an email that older daughter’s school had two more cases, one staff one student. That’s definitely increasing.
n
Way back in the day, I think we should have locked down HARD, broken the chain of transmission, and we would have either stopped it, or delayed the increase significantly. Many lives could have been saved if we had the vaccines (assuming they work) now, but only half the deaths because we delayed the ramp up.
We never did “lockdown” anything though. The exceptions were ludicrous, gilligans were everywhere, and we didn’t have enough deaths to get public buy in at that point anyway.
We got the worst of both worlds, with an added helping of destroying the public’s trust in authority.
n
Has anyone here heard anything through the grapevine or otherwise in re Eric S. Raymond? This article:
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=8764
has been up since Sept 25th with no comments.
We got the worst of both worlds, with an added helping of destroying the public’s trust in authority.
And in the media, and the public schools, and ….
COVID-19: ‘Too risky’ for special mixing rules among vaccinated people
From the comments:
Maybe. It depends on a lot of factors. The mutation rate, how long memory cell response lasts, etc. Some anti-virus vaccines are good for life (smallpox).
Way back in the day, I think we should have locked down HARD, broken the chain of transmission, and we would have either stopped it, or delayed the increase significantly. Many lives could have been saved if we had the vaccines (assuming they work) now, but only half the deaths because we delayed the ramp up.
Simply applying the same public health policy as we do with TB would have prevented a lot of the mess we’ve lived through for the last ten months, but there was power to be gained.
The City of Austin as well as San Antonio are feeling even more empowered now than when they took advantage of the Republicans in the Legislature chasing Ann Richards ghost two years ago. Check out what Austin tried to sneak through without neighborhood approval over the past few weeks.
https://www.fox7austin.com/news/williamson-county-wants-180-day-pause-on-austins-homeless-hotel-plan
The hotel is not far from one of the few surviving malls around Austin and some *very* high end neighborhoods in unincorporated Williamson County.
This is like lockdown – how tight do you make it and how soon do you let-up. All this is (in my opinion) is the authorities being really careful before relaxing the rules. Considering the experience here in my province in the Great White North, where the rules were relaxed too soon and then not tightened quickly enough when the second wave approached, I think the authorities in England are applying the correct amount of care and caution. They have had it worse (% of population infected and consequent deaths) than many other places so maybe the authorities are learning from painful experience. You can always hope they are because it is about bloody time.
@nick:
And you’d have hit the same FOMO and “But… muh freedoms!” pushback. Not to mention anti-vaxxers refusing the jabs when they became available. And there’s some of that last, even here, where there’s general support for vaccination.
G.
“And you’d have hit the same FOMO and “But… muh freedoms!” pushback.”
–yep, but at the time, there was more to fear, because we knew less, and it might have flown, if they didn’t spend so much effort downplaying it. Then if it worked people would be complaining that it was all for nothing, since OBVIOUSLY we didn’t have an outbreak….
there’s no winning, and there’s no time machine.
n
Has anyone here heard anything through the grapevine or otherwise in re Eric S. Raymond? This article:
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=8764
has been up since Sept 25th with no comments.
I sent him an email a week after the column to inform him that his commenting feature did not work. He replied and said that that he knew about it but could not fix it as it was an MIT server problem. And MIT was at the time considering defriending him so they did not want to work on it.
There is a huge thread on SlashDot about it.
https://linux.slashdot.org/story/20/09/27/193250/eric-s-raymond-is-microsoft-switching-to-a-linux-kernel-that-emulates-windows
and
https://linux.slashdot.org/story/20/10/17/0131259/no-microsoft-wont-rebase-windows-to-linux-argues-canonicals-manager-for-ubuntu-on-wsl
“The Protector’s War (A Novel of the Change)” by S. M. Stirling
https://www.amazon.com/Protectors-War-Novel-Change/dp/0451460774/?tag=ttgnet-20
Book number two of a fifteen book fantasy apocalyptic alternate history series. I read the well printed and well bound MMPB published by Penguin in 2006. This is my third or fourth rereading of this book. I have read most of the other books in the series except for the fifteenth and maybe the fourteenth as the series lost my interest. BTW, the first three books can be treated as a trilogy.
It has been eight years since the entire world changed with a brilliant flash of light. Internal combustion did not work, guns did not fire, light bulbs did not light, steam engines do not build up pressure. But, spears, arrows, and swords still work along with bicycles and human power. And horse power, lots of horse power.
My rating: 5 out of 5 stars
Amazon rating: 4.6 out of 5 stars (373 reviews)
When I was a kid I used to spend a few weeks during the summer staying with my grandparents in upstate NY. Their property was I think several acres and at least half grass. Mt grandfather has a small tractor (Gravley I think was the brand) with PTO and a mowing deck. It had several forward speeds which were controlled by a lever at one side of the seat. My grandfather didn’t like that arrangement so he got some stock steel bar and made an extension to the shift lever that made it work like an upright car shifter. I had a lot of fun “driving” that tractor around cutting the grass. For those few weeks each summer my grandfather got a break from mowing. When we left the NE for FL we had a big yard with several oak trees (think lots of acorns) and my wife convinced me that life was too short (or maybe she had higher priorities for me on her to-do list) not to pay someone to do the lawn work.
How many times would you need to charge it, exchange the batteries, or drag a cord to cut my 1.2 acres at the house
The new EGO ZTR battery powered mower will easily handle 1.2 acres.
https://egopowerplus.com/zero-turn-riding-mower-zt4204l
It can use six 10Ah batteries for maximum power. It will even charge a phone while mowing.
If I had not just recently purchased a new commercial grade ZTR mower I would be on this like a welfare addict on a stimulus check.
Nice but that is a 42 inch mower. My mower dude uses a 60 inch or 72 inch mower (I cannot remember). He mows 4 to 5 lawns a day.
When we left the NE for FL we had a big yard with several oak trees (think lots of acorns) and my wife convinced me that life was too short (or maybe she had higher priorities for me on her to-do list) not to pay someone to do the lawn work.
A decent sized Florida yard south of Gainesville is a full time job for someone.
Adding to the time sink is the asinine FS 720 (the HOA statute) and the obsession among a lot of transplants over the smooth look of a manicured St. Augustine lawn. That species of grass has caused a lot of misery in the state.
Has anyone here heard anything through the grapevine or otherwise in re Eric S. Raymond? This article:
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=8764
has been up since Sept 25th with no comments.
I sent him an email a week after the column to inform him that his commenting feature did not work. He replied and said that that he knew about it but could not fix it as it was an MIT server problem. And MIT was at the time considering defriending him so they did not want to work on it.
@Lynn: Thanks for the info and the links!
“Defriending?” Besides being a cis white male of a certain age, what other crime or crimes has ESR committed?
A vote on disqualification from holding future office, which requires only a simple majority, may take place only after the Senate has already voted to convict an impeached official. Two-thirds of the Senate must first agree to remove someone from office before that official can be disqualified – a simple majority cannot, acting on its own, disqualify an official from holding future office.
The City of Austin as well as San Antonio are feeling even more empowered now than when they took advantage of the Republicans in the Legislature chasing Ann Richards ghost two years ago. Check out what Austin tried to sneak through without neighborhood approval over the past few weeks.
https://www.fox7austin.com/news/williamson-county-wants-180-day-pause-on-austins-homeless-hotel-plan
The hotel is not far from one of the few surviving malls around Austin and some *very* high end neighborhoods in unincorporated Williamson County.
First Anchorage, now Austin. What is it with warehousing homeless in hotels at the expense of the local population? Is it something to do with cities with names beginning with “A” or is there something more sinister going on behind the scenes nationally?
“Defriending?” Besides being a cis white male of a certain age, what other crime or crimes has ESR committed?
“How OSI Co-Founder Got Banned From the OSI’s Mailing Lists (a Month After the Other Co-Founder Resigned in Protest in Those Mailing Lists, Bemoaning Attacks on Software Freedom)”
http://techrights.org/2020/02/29/getting-banned-osi/
There is the 14th Amendment:
Section 3
“No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.”
@Lynn:
I find Dr. Schestowitz’s incessant “the sky is falling” drumbeat, especially about Micro$oft, rather wearing. He may well have good points, but the “OMG!! Disaster!”flavour puts me off reading him.
G.
Is there even any reliable information on how long the immunity from the current vaccines will last, beyond the elapsed time from the start of the Phase 3 trials?
ESR speaks his mind, and argues from logic. Plus he likes guns. That’s three reasons to un-person him, before you even get to his male, hetero, white, competence. (like the four horsemen, those bring on the Apoplexy Apocalypse.) Considering that the whole of western civilization was built mainly by competent white males, attacking that can’t end well. Especially when white males will often just take their ball and go home, rather than engage with people they consider morons.
n
@Lynn
I’ve heard of cases where power plants use contractors to clean the scale off the heat exchangers with shotguns.
@TV
Sorry I was imprecise:
Lockdowns in the United States don’t work.
The data doing state-to-state comparisons has already been examined and the the results published.
Lockdowns failed primarily for three reasons:
1) people caught and spread the virus before showing any screenable symptoms
2) a large subset of the population was considered essential and exempt from restrictions
3) communities could not isolate themselves from contact with outside infection
Australia got lucky because they are an island and able to isolate themselves, and did so early enough that the virus was not already widely circulating.
Canada was lucky too–they have one border and the neighbor to the south helps them secure it. Contrast the U.S., with half the elected officials hell-bent on staying in power by converting illegal alien invaders into voters, no matter the cost. In the last 20 years we’ve seen the resurgence of disease brought in by alien invaders that was eradicated in the U.S. In the present crisis we’ve seen the most incredible incompetence from experts (the CDC) and elected officials (Cuomo keeping the subway super-spreader in operation).
If lockdowns worked we wouldn’t have Cuomo and Walz (gov MN) the largest mass-murders in U.S. history for the wholesale slaughter of their respective state assisted living populations. 70% of deaths in that group with the residents cut off from contact with family and friends and the only source was “essential” workers.
Well, I installed Handbrake and the dll and I’ve started ripping dvds…
The process doesn’t seem to affect my other use of this pc, and takes about 30 minutes per disc. I should be done sometime in 2022…
n
I accidentally posted this on yesterday’s thread, so am reposting:
from the link I posted earlier to the Quanta Magazine article on modeling:
What had gone wrong? The scientists had seemingly included so much room for error, so many contingencies for how students might behave. “What we didn’t anticipate was that they would break the law,” Goldenfeld said — that some students, even after testing positive and being told to quarantine, would attend parties anyway. This turned out to be critical: Given how COVID-19 spreads, even if only a few students went against the rules, the infection rate could explode.
Strict liability for negligent transmission of Wuhan flu, including immediate murder charges for any death, 7-days to a trial, 7-days for all appeals, followed by public execution on the lawn of the facility that held the party.
[addendum: same treatment for the “essential” workers who were exposed to the virus and knowing went to work with vulnerable populations.]
OTOH, why would we expect them to obey the law? A portion of their classmates are here illegally and getting educated on the taxpayer’s dime, and the school administration is discriminating against admission of Asians, whites, and Jews in favor of less-qualified poc’s.
reposting another one:
@ech
Getting the J&J one shot vaccine out in quantity would have three effects:
1) It would place the bottleneck firmly at the state level and motivate the msm to find reasons it is Trump’s fault for their lack of planning
2) In doing (1) it would shut down the modeling industry which has made a run on taxpayer dollars with papers showing why we should consider turning the two-dose vaccine into a half-ash one-dose vaccine (lots of expensive hand waving to do what is essentially efficacy arbitrage between the 52% level of the first dose and the 94% level (42% additional) of the second)
3) It would put the case for Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize light-years ahead of any other candidate, excepting of course Hadji Ranjit’s New Delhi Aged Cow Rescue and Rehab, which will win unanimously even after it is revealed that all the idyllic photos of cows in the country were photoshopped after the bovines were made into dog food shipped to Chumikan.
With the new administration announcing a review of social media activity for all federal employees and the military, I wonder how far away we are from having political officers assigned to each division, ship,and submarine like in the old Soviet Union? I spent some time in the good old USSR and know firsthand where we are headed. I wouldn’t have believed it a year ago.
Given that the chances of actually dying of covid for college age kids is less than 0.005%, they are more likely to have a drunken driving accident than be hospitalized with the WuWu Flu. Risk analysis is something most people do emotionally rather than rationally. That’s why I have never been locked in and only wear a mask when the store requires or I’m filling an ATM in a bar. Off for my second jab next week. We are now told that two people who have both taken the full course of vaccine must still use masks and physical distancing with each other. This is why the people don’t trust the government. Well, one of a thousand reasons.
Given that the chances of actually dying of covid for college age kids is less than 0.005%, they are more likely to have a drunken driving accident than be hospitalized with the WuWu Flu.
Seeing an increasing list of names on the plaque in front of the Phi Zappa Crappa fraternity house might encourage them to think of somebody’s grandma who is more vulnerable.
Or not. But it might improve the breed.
I think there would be some debate on it’s enforcement requirements.
One opinion:
Though lawmakers can remove their colleagues from office, they cannot legally keep those members from running for, and occupying, public office again. That’s because there is today no federal statute enforcing Section 3; those parts of the Ku Klux Klan Act were repealed long ago. Unless Congress passes a new enforcement law, any expelled lawmakers could return later.
https://theconversation.com/congress-could-use-an-arcane-section-of-the-14th-amendment-to-hold-trump-accountable-for-capitol-attack-153344
It all depends on when you start, what you lock down, for how long, on the side testing, quarantine facilities and much more. You also Have to have a system for when one or more cases actually get out in the community.
NZ locked hard and early but when a few cases appeared in the community it took them a bit too long to get them reigned in.
OZ lockdowns are State controlled. QLD and WA are very hard on locking out other states with few cases in full very fast and for long periods of time. VIC is in the middle and NSW has the most balanced approach to which I subscribe because it has the least impact on the economy.
When you start: immediately you are aware there is a case. In order for that to happen you have to have a lot of testing and ,and since it is not mandatory outside of the quarantine areas, a lot of goodwill from the community. At the very beginning there were no really good tests but that should now be ok.
What you lock down: One State locks other States in full and that is really silly. Most States now lock out either cities or particular areas associated with a city. The latter was an evolution as the whole structure of “policing” was put in place and things where learnt along the way.
Quarantine and testing: All (except a few…) are quarantined coming in to the continent. 14 days is the norm. They are tested. Quarantine facilities are mostly hotels with specific characteristics (no recirculated aircon for ex.), specific monitoring by trained people and specific cleaning processes.
Contact tracing: This is critical once a case is identified and will obviously only work really effectively when the number of cases are small and the processes used are good. VIC had a very poor system\method and endured spreading for much longer until they finally got some feedback on how to do it from NSW. This also relies heavily on community but is also assisted by specific tools and legislation. Restaurants, shops in malls and other premises are mandated to have a QR system that people voluntarily use when they go in and when they go out. So if a case is known that visited McDonalds in such a place at such a time, all other people in the site can voluntarily go for testing when they learn about it in the news or can get contacted to be recommended to go for testing. The specific QR method is quite recent. There is an app Covid-Safe that uses GPS and feeds data to gov that can also be used. That app appeared several months into the pandemic. The use of the app is also voluntary.
There are many other considerations. There are always people that will try to break lockdowns. Here they are fined. Government financial assistance for individuals and businesses. Businesses procedures and facilities as well as implementation of working from home processes and tools that are not inexpensive by themselves.
In Oz, once all processes evolved to the current state, the tools were made available, legislation was put in place, systems were tested and tweaked and to-date with the goodwill of the people things have actually worked very well. Numbers have been very low. If a more virulent form were to get out in the community it could get testy but I think that the current systems in place could work.
That is a lot of things that have to come together effectively for a partial or full lockdown to work. Not many democratic countries would be able to implement that and even then things can still get out of hand…
Conclusion: lockdown is just one tool, a tool that can be very important but it is not a magic wand.
NB: For the illiterate majority here: New South Wales(NSW), Queensland(QLD), Victoria(VIC) and Western Australia(WA) are the biggest States with South Australia(SA) and Tasmania(TAS) making that the full lot and Northern Territory(NT) which will probably never make a state because it is too hot to state all the political divisions of the “colony”. 🙂
PS: and regarding:
There is no such thing as luck in these things. Just look at the above.
about that Capitol police officer who was “murdered”:
According to one law enforcement official, medical examiners did not find signs that the officer sustained any blunt force trauma, so investigators believe that early reports that he was fatally struck by a fire extinguisher are not true.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/02/politics/brian-sicknick-charges/index.html
Note that the link is CNN, which is apparently retreating from a months worth of reports.
@Lynn
I’ve heard of cases where power plants use contractors to clean the scale off the heat exchangers with shotguns.
Why not ? I can attest that dynamite does not work.
I wonder what shot they use ? Buckshot seems to be rather destructive to sensitive tubing.
@Marcelo
I’m standing by my statements.
Saying that lockdowns work under a particular limited set of circumstances as you’ve described them (That is a lot of things that have to come together effectively for a partial or full lockdown to work. Not many democratic countries would be able to implement that and even then things can still get out of hand…) is tantamount to saying:
Lockdowns hardly ever work.
We had lockdowns in the U.S. that didn’t work. Your unqualified assertion is disproven by examples, just as my initial unqualified assertion was disproven and caused me to revise it. I’m glad they worked elsewhere.
If the various states in the United States had acted early to prevent migration from NY and CA by air and highway, it would have helped, but gutting the constitution in that way–to the disadvantage of the two largest blue states–was never possible. Likewise early arrest and imprisonment of the governors of NY and MN might have saved a lot of old folks, but…
And yes, luck is always a factor. Things can still get out of hand.
oops. forgot a blockquote with Lockdowns work obviously…
. 🙂
I think that the dumbrocrats are going to try to ban Trump from future office without successfully impeaching him.
The real target is Ron DeSantis and, to some extent, Little Marco. Both are up for reelection next year in Trump’s backyard.
@Lynn
I don’t recall any details about the loads that were used. The shotguns are industrial, designed for many more rounds in a short time than typical.
Dug up an old article. Not much detail:
https://www.powermag.com/using-explosives-for-boiler-deslagging/
ech posted above:
I used to use a metrology lab that had a sign posted which stated in part:
“Measure to understand.”
The vaccine trials were of necessity limited, and the efficacy rates that are quoted should have error bars and probably at least one alphabet worth of footnotes.
As more data is developed it would be useful if the manufacturers shared so that physicians and their patients could make better informed decisions. Good freaking luck, except in a few qualified cases.
One such is pregnancy. The vaccines will inevitably be administered to pregnant women, there will be adverse reactions, and advertisers will fight to buy the spots just after the tearful reports on the national news. When the numbers are crunched chances are that the adverse reaction rate will be statistically significantly different, likely higher, but not meaningfully so. Indignant ambulance chasers will be interviewed about the outrage of not being able to file suit.
And none of the reports will mention a) adverse outcomes in pregnancy during normal times, or b) the very likely higher adverse outcome rate in pregnancy sans vaccine during the pandemic.
“sootblowers, and rapping systems”
–that linked article was awesome just for that phrase. blowing stuff up to clean it, what an interesting thought. Thanks for the link.
n
I used to use a metrology lab that had a sign posted which stated in part:
“Measure to understand.”
“Metrology is the scientific study of measurement.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metrology
New term for me. Makes sense.
We stand on the shoulders of giants.
Three of my PhD engineers had a long discussion one day about adding the length units of barleycorn to our software. They almost talked me into it. I managed to sidetrack them by getting into the controversy of dry versus moist.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barleycorn_(unit)
the panopticon
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/02/bank-america-secretly-flagged-purchase-history-customers-sent-data-feds-capitol-riot/
n
It’s been cold here; highs in the low 50s. I don’t work outside if its below 50 so I did get outside much.
Yesterday I worked on stump removal for a couple of hours. Since it right on the property line I didn’t want to dig it out, so I started a hole on one side so I can cut it off at ground level.
The contractor finished the pad to day. They set the strings marking the floor heights. Now I need to get the electrician and plumber to put their conduits in place. Neither has provided me with a quote so I looking for both (again.)
Started pricing bathroom fixtures. Didn’t realize how expensive a shower stall would be. I guesstimated $200 but it will be three times that.
Finished two books. “Hornets Nest” by Patrica Cornwell and “Starshine” by G. S. Jennsen, the latter highly recommended.
““I’m Not Familiar with Your Work” – President Trump Sends Epic Resignation Letter to SAG-AFTRA Actors Union After Shameless Publicity Stunt by Union Prez”
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/02/not-familiar-work-president-trump-sends-epic-resignation-letter-sag-aftra-actors-union-shameless-publicity-stunt-union-prez/
Dude, you rock !
The problem with that is that Trump isn’t an official, he’s a private citizen.
The point that Richard raises is more interesting, and super vague. Merriam Webster defines insurrection as “an act or instance of revolting against civil authority or an established government” and I think you’d have a hard time proving that Trump actually did that. The people who entered the capitol building did the first part of that for sure. In Trump’s case, he didn’t actually call for any violence and the riot started (perhaps a 15 minute walk away from where he gave the speech) before the speech ended, so any assertion that he incited it in his speech seems ridiculous.
There are other issues. For instance, the people who invaded the capitol during Kavanaugh’s hearing were not charged with insurrection.
I think its all moot anyway. I can’t imagine Trump will run again.
Wow, there is only one home and one lot for sale in my neighborhood of 450 homes plus 100 lots. The inventory is way down due to the uncertainty of life now ???
https://www.har.com/mapsearch/?map_tools_nwlat=29.541397725237587&map_tools_nwlng=-95.7324144980974&map_tools_selat=29.49816953789282&map_tools_selng=-95.67581020627507&for_sale=1
If you want to wax philosophical about democracy and whatnot then one may conclude that any government capable of truly locking down has been granted far too much power.
anyone else getting 504 errors when posting comments?
n
Geography helps, but to summarize Marcelo: it is more than luck. I will say it meant having politicians and experts make the right decisions, usually tough decisions, make them early, and stick with them. There were expert opinions offered early that were wrong. Sometimes, that was just a lack of data to indicate the decision was wrong (and you do have to make decisions, sometimes without good data). I will say the worst expert advise was (I think) from the WHO saying there is no point in locking down air travel. Turns out that if you shut down most air travel, test rigorously and enforce quarantine periods on travelers it works rather well (not that Canada has managed that yet – idiot politicians).
In general, Canada has a huge advantage on immigration because we really only have one border. It is tough to get to Canada and there is rather little incentive for Americans to rush over the border – lifestyles and income levels are very similar. If you arrive in the US illegally there is little reason to head north to Canada. We do take in about 1% of the population as legal immigrants each year (300,000 or so), but that geographic isolation means we get to choose. The relative minority of Canadians that complain about illegal immigration typically have no idea how difficult it is to get to Canada as an illegal or to then stay. They would completely lose it if they had to deal with the situation you have on the US southern border.
As an addendum, I would not blame just the US politicians on illegal immigration. There was no shortage of folks that wanted cheap labor: for slaughterhouses, for construction, for landscaping, and as nannies. An awful lot of entry level jobs for citizens suited to no more than a high school education were disappeared by not doing anything about illegal immigration in the US. An unholy combination of the desire for cheap labor and soft hearts over border enforcement has kept that southern border open for decades. (Or at least that is my observation from 1,000 miles north).
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/us-border-agents-nab-group-iranians
Not the first time some droplets have tried to hide in the flood.
n
Cops have a huge multi agency task force working on street racers and “guys doing donuts”.
They are running down over 100 vehicles that were doing donuts in a parking lot. They even have an air unit up.
They were working prostitution all day.
I guess the new budgets hit…
n
Much less need for dry cleaning with so many people WFH.
But maybe Amazon can get into the mail order dry cleaning business. Drop your stuff off at UPS, Kohls or Whole Foods and your friendly Amazon driver drops them off in two days. Anybody know the new CEO’s email address?
TV
I don’t blame just the politicians. Cheap labor at the low-end, but also cheap-er labor in tech jobs. The abuse of the H1B visa program by tech companies has been going on for decades, keeping the lid on tech salaries. Tech staff at Con Edison being forced to train their foreign replacements or get no severance [corrected]. Outsourcing manufacturing to China so the Chinese can steal the technology.
The entire light rail scam in the U.S. is based on the Dems on one side getting union jobs and the Repubs on the other side getting construction contracts and real estate profits while screwing the taxpayer and promoting the mass transit farce.
@Nick
re: Iranians
Waterboard the women first.
@Alan
You do know that 49er’s used to send their laundry to China?
From a retail perspective, what needed to remain open besides grocery stores, drug stores and some limited number of gas stations? Could we have managed without Costco, Target, Walmart, Home Depot, McDonald’s, Starbucks, etc.?
So many nuances in play here that theoretically could be dragged into the courts for eventually SCOTUS to opine on, or not, should Roberts decide to sit on the sideline and not get involved. Plus I don’t know if Trump has any Constitutional attorneys on v3 of his rag-tag legal team.
The complaint in Ontario is Walmart (and other big retailers selling food) could stay open selling everything, not just food. All the small stores were closed or doing curbside pickup only. The demand was for Walmart (and similar stores) to sell ONLY food (curbside pickup for anything else), and I thought that was a reasonable restriction. Walmart has the resources to weather a few bad months. A local store selling kitchenware or clothing? Not so much. It would also reduce the number of people out shopping for non-essentials which was the whole point of the lockdown.