Sat. Feb. 22, 2020 – and more twos in the date!

Cold and damp, but should remain clear. [41F in my driveway]

Temps dropped even a bit further last night, and it was chilly all day. I’m kinda glad I didn’t get my seeds in the dirt.

I did manage to pick up a couple of things I needed for much less than retail, but it doesn’t help me with my immediate need to get rid of stuff.

As I write this we now have 35 cases of WuFlu in the US, almost all imported by our own .gov. The usual sources are full of new cases, and dramatic increases in numbers. That’s how it works though tiny, tiny, little, little, then suddenly big jumps. I haven’t had a chance to listen to CDC’s teleconference yet, but it promises to be “interesting’. Keep stacking, and revisit your planning. Like japan and italy, .gov could wake up one morning and cancel Christmas. Now your kids are home during the day, so you need to be too…

Busy day today, GScout activity for the females, then a basketball game, then meet with a roofer, then Cookie Booth, and I will do one last auction pickup. I’d like to get some of the outdoor stuff done, and get some more garage stuff done too. Lots of food to put away and organize…

Get busy, time may be very short.

n

Author: Nick Flandrey

Mid 50s, stay at home dad, with two elementary school age girls. Love my family and my life.

29 thoughts on “Sat. Feb. 22, 2020 – and more twos in the date!”

  1. Now your kids are home during the day, so you need to be too…

    There will be a lot of pressure to keep the schools open as long as possible for the daycare aspect, even in areas like where I live, with lots of “good” homes and high academic standards in the public schools. Lately, Corporate America has been waking up to the scam of the Work From Home mafia and ordering the employees back to the office for at least a few days a week.

    I work for Austrians. Our current rule is no more than two days at home a month without special exceptions.

    I doubt an enforcement of quarantine can work from the national level down. The US will be a patchwork of epidemic, probably less problems with breaking the law in “red” states.

  2. Huh, just finished listening to the CDC call from Friday, while reading along with the published transcript. There is a note that the transcript has errors.

    Yes, well, the errors are pretty consistent. There is a whole paragraph where they left out a few words. Mostly modifiers that convey a sense of URGENCY or SEVERITY. It’s only a few words but they did seem to be consistent.

    There is a whole missing paragraph near the end where the CDC talks about the current criteria for deciding who to look at and test. COULD just be an error that it got dropped….

    Meanwhile Italy put 10 cities on lockdown. Japan is ‘encouraging’ people to lock themselves down, and the US has “thousands” of returned travelers who are ‘voluntarily’ isolating themselves.

    During the call the reporter tried to get CDC to commit to an answer to the questions of when they’d change the criteria, and to what extent the response would change based on the current spread of outbreaks to areas outside of China. CDC danced around the answers.

    CDC also admitted that the test they tried to deploy last week is broken and hasn’t been fixed yet. They are currently doing all testing at CDC, but have gotten rid of all backlogs and are testing “in real time”.

    They also seem to have changed to a once a week telebriefing, after having more frequent updates.

    Other notes, reporters are TERRIBLE at conveying clear and accurate information. I read several articles and couldn’t follow the numbers- had to go to the source telebrief….

    CDC is going to break out the cruise ship #s from domestic #s and from Wuhan repatriation flight numbers.

    10 confirmed in Japan, and still in Japan.
    18 confirmed among those that were repatriated, most from the Diamond Princess (with the expectation that there will be more cases confirmed soon.)
    13 confirmed thru domestic efforts and surveillance

    If anyone doubts that it is in the wild, and doesn’t think it will get there from there (when we’re specifically ONLY looking for it in travelers from China) look at this list-

    “we are seeing among some countries in Asia that are beginning to experience community spread. This is when cases are detected in a community but it is not known what the source of the infection was. This is being reported in Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam, as well as Hong Kong and Japan. The last two countries we issued level one travel notices for earlier this week.”

    She also wouldn’t say definitively whether it is transmissible while asymptomatic. She says that if you push hard enough, most of the asymptomatic will remember some sort of minor symptom. Because of course they do. Hair splitting. People that don’t look sick, and don’t describe themselves as sick are capable of spreading the virus. I feel pretty safe making that claim.

    This isn’t going away guys.

    n

    (and in a related but not related observation, I’ve previously mentioned the word “operationalize” and how the first time I encountered it the only google hit was our local ISD superintendent — who is from Atlanta. I’ve since seen it other places, and the CDC Dr. used it on the call. The common link is Atlanta. Regional usage of an ugly awkward and unneeded new word is spreading. Gah.)

  3. The annual Simple Homespun Wisdom From Chairman Warren — Ghostwritten by Carol Loomis of Fortune (TM) is here. Huzzah! We’re all saved!

    https://berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2019ltr.pdf

    What I find interesting about the letter is what you can glean reading between the lines.

    Disclaimer: I own a few shares just to get my letter and invitation to Omaha. The stock isn’t even close to being a “buy” at current prices. If I had to guess the current “intrinsic” value Warren talks about and views as critical, it would be somewhere between $150-175 per share. When the specialist defends the intrinsic price in trades, the pattern jumps out in the charts, and that hasn’t happened since 2016.


  4. There is a note that the transcript has errors.

    Thanks for letting us know. I, like many others, usually go for the transcript rather than watch the video because it’s so much faster to read the words than to listen. (And because so many people, even spokesmen, are so bad at public speaking.) It hadn’t occurred to me that the transcript would be falsified. Dumb and naive of me, but it didn’t.

    Regional usage of an ugly awkward and unneeded new word is spreading.

    What’s the R0 of the infection?

  5. Warm and toasty inside the house now. HVAC guys replaced the entire system (heat pump and air handler) with a new Trane system. Heat pump is the XV20i – variable speed, 21 SEER and 10 HSPF. Uses the ComfortLink thermostat, connected to my local wifi, so I can use an app on my phone or the laptop to control it. Total cost about $14K, but included $700 in rebates from the local utility.

    Took the HVAC guys about 8 hours to replace. It was a bit slower than normal for them, as the two HVAC guys included an apprentice, so some training involved. The senior guy was very good in how he was teaching the new guy what to do, and the new guy was doing well. But it took a bit longer than usual, which is OK.

    So, after a week of 55F in the house, except for the den which we kept at a comfortable level with a space heater, it’s nice to have the heating system working again. And, so far, the digitally-connected thermostat is working well with the network, and it’s convenient to be able to control it with the app on the phone.

  6. I serviced our septic aerator tank at the new used house today. I opened the final 500 gallon tank and put five more chlorine tablets into it. The tablets are about three inches in diameter. I have to do this every month until we move or the world ends. Or, we stop peeing and pooping into the drain pipes in our house.

  7. @steveF, without trustworthy data, the R0 is naught but a phantasy….

    Back from all the family stuff, and an estate auction pickup. New trashcan for the kitchen ($30 instead of over $100)*, and a stack of gun books- gunsmithing, reloading, specific work techniques, misc.

    got pulled over in a subdivision for doing 30mph in a 20 zone. yup, revenue zone….

    CHL and politeness kept me from getting a ticket. Tried to avoid in depth explanations for how exactly I got off with the 10 yo. Not quite ready to have her know I carry every day and all the time. She’s REALLY close to figuring it out.

    Topped up the fresh food and picked up a month’s prescriptions at the grocery store. Didn’t get a chance to ask the tech if they are having any issues with stock.

    Now to unload stuff, sort, and put away. That’ll get me to dark. Maybe watch a movie with the kids…..

    n

    *I wouldn’t have paid $100 for a trash can in the first place, but it does fit perfectly and look ok where it is. Unfortunately the lid mechanism seems to have worn out past fixing, hence the need for replacement. Same exact model, without the hard use, for a third of the price. And the seller washed it clean. Score.

    n

  8. Horry Clap pat man…

    “South Korean officials have today confirmed that at least 231 of the country’s 433 new cases of coronavirus are linked to an outbreak at a branch of a controversial ultra-religious church in Daegu. ”

    That’s a lot of cases overnight.

    I love the anti-religion bias revealed in the articles too. There is ZERO reason to mention what the church believes, or doesn’t believe. But if it can be scapegoated and sensationalized at the same time, woo hooo…

    n

  9. Trash can? For the kitchen?

    I’m still using a Rubbermaid with the pedal that opens the lid. Bought it at K-Mart (I think) some time around 1988. Too lazy to look in the file cabinet where I stash owner’s manuals warranties.


  10. Warm and toasty inside the house now.

    It will be interesting to see what happens to your electric bill.

  11. It will be interesting to see what happens to your electric bill.

    Our gas heating bill is roughly the same, new vs. old unit, but, IIRC @Rick doesn’t have gas.

    We paid nearly $300 one month in WA State for gas. I don’t think the highs got above freezing for a couple of weeks that month.

  12. Re: power bill (here in Olympic Peninsula WA)

    Just got the bill for 1/12/20 to 2/11/20. Last year’s numbers in parenthesis.

    Average daily temp 43F (36F), Average daily usage 88 KWh. (126 KWh). Average daily cost $9,62 ($13.75)/ Total usage last billing period: 2630 KWh.

    Total bill $288.63 (600 KWh @ 0.068200, 2630 KWh at .107000) .

    Daily indoor temps set at 71-72F (winter) and 82-84F (summer). Nighttime set at 67-68F (winter). Not much AC use during summer. Only electricity here, no natural gas.

    Prior heating system was 10 SEER heat pump; air handler has supplemental electric heat. New system is 21 SEER. (Those numbers for AC efficiency.) HSPF (heating efficiency) of new system is 10; old system had about 8 HSPF.

  13. Warm and toasty inside the house now. HVAC guys replaced the entire system (heat pump and air handler) with a new Trane system. Heat pump is the XV20i – variable speed, 21 SEER and 10 HSPF. Uses the ComfortLink thermostat, connected to my local wifi, so I can use an app on my phone or the laptop to control it. Total cost about $14K, but included $700 in rebates from the local utility.

    From
    https://sciencing.com/convert-hsfp-cop-10043176.html

    10 HSPF = 10 btu/watt/hr

    10 btu/watt/hr * 1055.1 joule/btu * / 3600 joule/watt/hr = 2.93 COP

    So for every kwh you put into the system at 47 F outside temperature, you get 2.93 kwh out of it in heat. Not bad, not bad, especially when you are total electric.

    Unless, your total electric fails for a couple of days liek you have mentioned before. I cannot remember, you do have a local heating alternative ?

  14. “Liz Warren Explains Why She Believes Ocasio-Cortez’s Green New Deal Doesn’t Go Far Enough”
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/02/22/liz-warren-explains-why-she-believes-ocasio-cortezs-green-new-deal-doesnt-go-far-enough/

    “She is also supporting a ban on hydraulic fracturing, a method of drilling that involves spraying high pressure water and sand underground to make tiny fractures in rock to release gas, which can then be liquified. She proposed a plan in June 2019 to spend $2 trillion over a decade to create one million green jobs.”

    So each new green deal job costs $2,000,000 each ? Wow, lets jump on that. We will be in the poor house after replacing the 15 million direct and indirect job in the fossil fuels industry with green jobs at a cost of $30 trillion. Wait, we are already in the poor house with $23 trillion debt in the USA, we just don’t know it yet.

  15. Well, I guess $64 a bucket isn’t toooooo bad.

    Heh, the bucket cost is not bad. It is the annual or biennial pumping at $550 that is expensive. Each of the the three tanks is only 500 gallons so just about any accumulation (toilet paper, etc) causes the system the drop in processing efficiency.

  16. Friday I walked into the Absentee Shawnee Nation Clinic to book Shingles and Pneumonia vaccinations. They said “No need to schedule, come on back” so I had both. The injections were literally painless. But this morning when I woke up both arm ached like I had been doing hundreds of push-ups. I can live with that.

  17. @lynn … thanks for the conversion. I’m hopeful that the new system will reduce costs, and that it will put out a bit more heat during colder days than the old system.

    As for outages, we get just a few relatively short ones a year during the winter. Since we live in a subdivision-type area, we are more likely to have shorter outages than more rural areas around here.

    Our last outage was about 6 hours. I think the longest we’ve had in the 5 years I’ve been here was 12 hours. I do have a good generator and bypass switch ready for outages; I can set up things in about 5 minutes). The total load on the system (refrigerator, freezer, some LED ‘can’ lights, oxygen machine, and the DirecTV and LED TV) was about 2500 watts. I suspect that we could add the space heater and still not overload the generator (6000-7000 W). We can hunker down in the den (like we did last week) and keep warm enough with the space heater. Probably could run the microwave if needed.

    The house does have a propane fireplace, but we don’t use it (the propane tank is empty). Doesn’t put out much heat, and it’s in the living room with has 2-story cathedral-type ceilings.

    So we’ve been OK during the few outages we’ve had here. Since we are in a higher density area, we get a higher priority on the restoration efforts.


  18. Not quite ready to have her know I carry every day and all the time. She’s REALLY close to figuring it out.

    I suggest telling her soon. It’ll build her self-confidence that you trusted her with a secret and, more importantly, lets you emphasize that she keeps her lip zipped about it. Whether you have your wife there or whether you separately tell her that you’ll be telling the kid depends on your family dynamics.


  19. Friday I walked into the Absentee Shawnee Nation Clinic to book Shingles and Pneumonia vaccinations

    The newest version or the older version? I am on a waiting list for the new shingles vaccine, waited a month for the new pneumonia vaccine. There is a short supply of the newer versions for both vaccines here in TN.

  20. @steve, yeah, I almost did it this time. She’s smart and observant and knows my politics and feeling on gun control. I was able to simply show the deputy my chl, without saying the words, and he asked me where it was. My answer, 4 0clock and iwb made no sense to her. She thinks it’s a cop code I learned during one of my classes. It took some dancing to avoid any lies or miss-statements regarding that, while not explaining what it actually was.

    Telling her this wasn’t something I wanted her discussing with anyone and her questions about why not revealed that she was in fact figuring out how to tell the story to her friends. I let her figure out that I don’t want her telling anyone about HOW I avoided the ticket, so they won’t know the words I used.

    It’s more bother than telling her the full truth, but again, not sure she won’t talk about it.

    Parenting. Who knew?

    n

  21. My kids (one from each marriage and one step, plus the one who spent a lot of time with us when she was younger) were not the problem. They all knew I joke around all the time but also understood when I was being serious. So far as I know they never told anyone about the firearms or that I usually had one with me. (And to never touch if they saw one and to never dig around in the backpack I always keep with me, though that’s more for the knives.)

    My wife, on the other hand… I was rather distressed to find that she’d apparently blabbed to everyone she’d ever met even after I told her to keep it quiet. I found out when we went to a party and someone I barely knew asked if I was carrying then and if he could see it.

    In completely unrelated news, my wife is bent out of shape that I no longer tell her things.

  22. We tried a sensor can, but the best place in the kitchen for the can is under the end of the counter. The sensor read the counter as a hand and wouldn’t ever close.

    n

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