Mon. Nov. 19 2018 – cold and wet

46F and 99%RH at 730am. Yuck.

Had rain, drizzle and sprinkles yesterday from afternoon on. Put a damper on my yard work.

Hah.

One guest gone, 2 more arrived. No fights yet.

#2 daughter had a 100F fever last night. She’s the only one who didn’t get sick on our vacation. I guess I’ll be taking her to the doc to see if she has flu or something else. Lots of sick kids at school and adults too.

Well. All the creatures are stirring, so I guess I’ll head to the kitchen…

n

Author: Nick Flandrey

Mid 50s, stay at home dad, with two elementary school age girls. Love my family and my life.

47 thoughts on “Mon. Nov. 19 2018 – cold and wet”

  1. @Nick – you are blessed. Hope #2 gets well soon.

    36º and cloudy right now. It looks to be a decent day – maybe a little rain later.

    I went downstate yesterday to see a friend about timing chips. Helped him get barcodes figured out so they’ll print good enough to be scanned. Our distribution process involves barcode scanning to speed things up a LOT. Getting the barcodes printing on his bagger saved me an hour of printing and 3-6 hours of applying labels to those little bags. Worth the trip. I also got to visit, which I never seem to do enough of.

    And my dislike for Macs grew a little yesterday. His copy of Dreamweaver started to forget his FTP site password. It’s apparently stored in the keychain. The fix? Run a clean and repair on the keychain. But on OSX High Sierra, the scan & fix tool has been removed for security reasons. Next option is to create a new keychain. But that eliminates all the old passwords (hundreds in his case) that would have to be manually imported. We opted to install FileZilla instead. Just easier.

  2. From the daily FEMA brief:

    Wildfires – California

    *Note: Customer outage data is provided by the Department of Energy’s EAGLE-I
    system. Comprehensive National coverage of all electrical service providers is not
    available.

    Current Situation:
    Wildfires continue to threaten lives and critical infrastructure throughout the state.
    Elevated fire weather risk for Central/Southern California today. Smoke will continue
    to impact air quality and visibility.

    Safety and Security:
    • Camp Fire: Mandatory evacuations remain in effect for a significant population
    • Woolsey Fire: Mandatory evacuations continue to decrease as safety allows

    Food, Water, and Sheltering:
    • 15 (-3) shelters open / 1,082 (-52) occupants statewide (ARC Midnight Shelter, Nov 19)
    • Boil water advisory remains in effect for impacted communities

    Energy (Power & Fuel):
    • Camp Fire: 55k trees need to be removed prior to full access to the area
    • Woolsey Fire: power outages have stabilized; repairs ongoing
    • 19k (-1k) customers without power statewide* (DOE EAGLE-I as of 7:00 a.m. EST)

    Communications:
    • Service coverage improving but remains unstable due to unknown impacts to
    infrastructure and shutdowns for repairs; some 911 services restored

    Hazardous Waste:
    • Household and other hazardous waste exist from residences and commercial
    businesses; direct contact with the debris and ash may adversely impact personnel

  3. No fever this am, and no visible issues with throat, so we’re holding off on the doc visit.

    No school, so kids at home.

    n

  4. Holy cow, I did a LOT of work with Nissan and this guy–


    Renault Shares Crash After Carlos Ghosn Arrested For Corruption

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-19/renault-shares-crash-after-carlos-ghosn-arrested-corruption

    Update II: As was widely expected, Nissan’s board will take steps to oust Ghosn at a meeting on Thursday, according to CEO Hiroto Saikawa, who is speaking at a late night press conference being carried live on Japanese TV.

    *NISSAN CONFIRMS GHOSN ARRESTED; BOARD TO DISMISS HIM THURSDAY
    *NISSAN: 3RD PARTY INVESTIGATION TO BE LED BY EXTERNAL DIRECTORS
    *NISSAN: WILL CONSULT WITH ALLIANCE PARTNERS ON ANY CHANGES
    *SAIKAWA: GHOSN MIS-USED BOTH INVESTMENT FUNDS AND EXPENSES
    *SAIKAWA: GHOSN, KELLY WERE THE MASTERMINDS OF THE MISCONDUCT

    added- my memory of it (it’s been a decade) is that everyone thought he was a d!ck.)

  5. Here are two related articles, about the folly of trusting others with your money, greed, and risk.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-18/optionsellerscom-goes-dark-after-catastrophic-loss-event-natgas-short-squeeze

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-18/one-hedge-funds-instant-destruction

    Note that they promised a “conservative” strategy, but executed a risky one, chasing bigger returns. The black swan shat on their heads.

    n

  6. added- my memory of it (it’s been a decade) is that everyone thought he was a d!ck.

    The real car guys are generally dicks. My dad worked at Ford during Iacocca’s rise in the 60s, and he said that what happened in the 70s in the Blue Oval C-suite was inevitable given that both Iacocca and Henry II were jerks.

    Still, you want real car guys running the automakers. They’re dropping like flies lately, either getting fired, retired, imprisoned (VW), or, like Sergio Marchionne at Fiat, literally falling over dead.

    When MBAs with no appreciation for cars run the automakers, bad things happen. Cough … Mary Barra … cough. At least the case could be made with Ford’s last CEO that he had a manufacturing background and listened to the engineers. The new GM cars we’ve had out at our site have been pieces of cr*p.

    And I think everyone here knows my opinion of Elon Musk’s chances. The orange jumpsuit is already sewn and sitting on a shelf at the Federal pen in Marion.

  7. kinda like the FAA’s upgrade of the air traffic control system. at least one upgrade was thrown out completely before being deployed….

    n

    [iirc]

  8. More good news … well, if you don’t hold Facebook stock (OK most of us do via 401-k and pension accounts, but I’ll enjoy the moment anyway).

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/with-facebook-at-war-zuckerberg-adopts-more-aggressive-style-1542577980

    I’ve long believed that the Internet would better off when Sheryl Sandberg is back at the only job she’s ever had for which she was truly qualified — teaching aerobics at the Harvard Co-Op.

    I was delighted this year when I opened my Disney proxy to discover voting against Sandberg retaining her board seat was no longer necessary since she was already removed. CEO? Thank God Iger didn’t retire.

  9. I think the big two carmakers stopped worrying about cars some time ago. The companies are run to maximize c-suite bonuses, and to make money on financing. Selling cars is only a way to enable the financing arm.

    I could be wrong. And I’m sure the companies are filled with people who are dedicated and passionate about cars. I’ve never met any though. The designers are mostly from the same school in Cali, who all learn the same art techniques, and the same aesthetics.

    Most of the companies use two different design teams, one for the front, and one for the back, which is how you get something like the Nissan Armada SUV. Or they bought into the idea of “brand DNA” but then picked the wrong thing, like the HUGE bowtie emblem and chrome strip across the back of all those chevys.

    The companies realize some of the design issues, which leads to things like the Scion micro brand (toyota) where they could innovate a bit, without risking an “edsel” moment.

    Some of the most interesting vehicles (like the HHR) are the design legacy of the guy who also did the PT cruiser. (wikilies says it was assembled in Mexico, but iirc, it was actually built by a small contract carriage maker and not even by a GM factory)

    Anyway, they suck, did suck, and will suck.

    n

  10. Sometimes I scan thru the comment spam that the filter stops all the rest of you from seeing. Occasionally it’s pretty funny!

    Always great to make a new fan–

    ” Magnificent goods from you, man. I have understand your stuff previous to and you’re just extremely excellent.

    I really like what you’ve acquired here, really
    like what you are saying and the way in which you say it.”

    Good to know I’m fastidious–

    “This paragraph is truly a fastidious one it assists new the web users, who are wishing in favor of blogging. ”

    And sometimes it’s effing the ineffible —

    “What are you do with a newspaper once you read the house?”

    Really, what are you do?

    n

  11. Some of the most interesting vehicles (like the HHR) are the design legacy of the guy who also did the PT cruiser. (wikilies says it was assembled in Mexico, but iirc, it was actually built by a small contract carriage maker and not even by a GM factory)

    Yeah, Bob Lutz (GM’s last “car guy”) pulled the PT Cruiser designer from Chrysler to work on the HHR.

    HHRs were still rolling off the line as late as 2011. I saw a ton of ’em stashed at Kurt Warner’s closed Chevy dealership in Vancouver, WA during our first Fall in town. Eventually, the vehicles disappeared, probably to rental fleets, demos, and, eventually, Car Max.

    I think the big two carmakers stopped worrying about cars some time ago. The companies are run to maximize c-suite bonuses, and to make money on financing. Selling cars is only a way to enable the financing arm.

    GM and Ford think some kind of sharing concept will bail them out of their problems, both self inflicted and those resulting from government stupidity. Chrysler is already toast, with what should have been their current lineup being sold by Mercedes as the 250 series.

  12. News from the socialist paradise, coming to a city near you….

    Murder rate soars in Venezuela, forcing population to take extreme precautions to stay alive amid food and medicine shortages

    South American nation registered 26,000 homicides last year, 89 per 100,000
    That’s 15 times the global average, murderers often kill for smartphones

  13. News from the socialist paradise, coming to a city near you….

    Gosh, wasn’t it a stitch when Chavez stepped to the UN podium after Bush and talked about being able to smell the sulphur. El Jefe was the toast of New York Progs on that day.

    I still honestly think Chavez and his cronies expected a US invasion to bail them out. Pappy Bush didn’t execute Noriega, and it wasn’t the US Government who hung a noose around Saddam’s neck or sodomized Khadaffy with a red hot bayonet. Bin Laden had a choice about surrendering.

  14. talk about ‘jumping the shark’

    Climate change will make us more likely to wet the bed

    The team behind the new study said warmer temperatures may also cause people to wet the bed more.

    Previous research has shown that pregnant women exposed to heavy flooding gave birth to children who wet the bed more, and were aggressive toward other children.

    Man, globull warmening, is there anything it CAN’T do?

    n

  15. Well, today sucks. Went in to my cardiologist for a three month post surgical checkup. Walked out with a heart monitor and a dozen electrodes on my chest for 48 hours. No showers and I have to sleep with the *%&%^%$^*%$ thing. I am having spurious heart beats which he is concerned might still be afib.

    Can you tell that I am grumpy ? I am grumpy, I do not sleep with anything on me whatsoever. Plus no showers and they shaved my chest again so I have one inch hairs all over me. BTW, normally the heart monitor is 3 days but that is T-day so he dropped it back a day. No nighttime walking either.

    At least my screaming got me the supposedly hypoallergenic electrodes this time. I am still itching from the electrodes on me for 30 hours back during the heart surgery on August 30. The wife has promised that she will coat me up with aloe daily when I take these off Wednesday afternoon.

  16. Here are two related articles, about the folly of trusting others with your money, greed, and risk.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-18/optionsellerscom-goes-dark-after-catastrophic-loss-event-natgas-short-squeeze

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-18/one-hedge-funds-instant-destruction

    Note that they promised a “conservative” strategy, but executed a risky one, chasing bigger returns. The black swan shat on their heads.

    Stay away from those hedge fund guys, they are freaking nightmares. MBAs with an Excel spreadsheet are the most dangerous thing on the planet. Especially the young ones who have not been through a bankruptcy or two yet.

    BTW, the market does not have the forthcoming bankruptcy of GE completely dialed in yet. It won’t be a liquidation, just a reorganization. All of the financial guys will be taken out and shot, starting with Jack Welch who gets 50 million a year or so in retirement bennies.

  17. And I think everyone here knows my opinion of Elon Musk’s chances. The orange jumpsuit is already sewn and sitting on a shelf at the Federal pen in Marion.

    What are you going to do when Tesla makes a profit this quarter ?

  18. “when Tesla makes a profit this quarter ? ”

    Hah! I spit on my keyboard when I read that!

    n

  19. @lynn that heart stuff sounds scary and extra full of suck. I hope it turns out to be nothing major.

    n

  20. @lynn that heart stuff sounds scary and extra full of suck. I hope it turns out to be nothing major.

    Just more of the same. The old two stage pump is still pumping 5o to 100+ times a minute. I expect it to keep on working for at least another year. Shoot, maybe another twenty or thirty years. There are no guarantees in this life and I have already survived quite a few disasters that should have taken me out.

    I am quite fascinated with how well the human body works. It can take an enormous amount of abuse and still keep on motivating. As an engineer, I can neither buy nor make you a pump that can work up to 100+ years with over 50% efficiency. Nor can I make miniaturized electromechanical filtration systems (liver and kidneys) that work so well for so long. Oxygen extraction systems (lungs), etc, etc, etc.

  21. What are you going to do when Tesla makes a profit this quarter ?

    If Tesla wants to survive long term, at some point, they will have to separate themselves from Musk.

    It already looks like Facebook wants to separate themselves from Zuckerberg and the bubble popping hasn’t really started yet. Too bad the shareholders can’t due to the way “Zuck” structured the IPO.

    Help yourselves, Zuckers. All of us are riding this one down.

  22. Stay away from those hedge fund guys, they are freaking nightmares. MBAs with an Excel spreadsheet are the most dangerous thing on the planet. Especially the young ones who have not been through a bankruptcy or two yet.

    About 15 years ago, I had a conversation with a co-worker which resulted in him scurrying off to hit Google. He thought I was kidding when I talked about remembering gold hitting $1000 an ounce in the late 70s after the gold window closed and inflation ripped through the economy.

    “That couldn’t happen. Civilization would have collapsed.”

    “It happened. Civilization didn’t collapse. Though, there were more than a few books written about that possibility. Google ‘Howard J. Ruff’ while you’re looking up the gold price. Ruff was all over the place, on Donahue, Carson, Snyder …”

    “Who’s Donahue?”

    “Bahahahaha. Poor Phil. Think Oprah but white and male.”

  23. @lynn … I had some skin irritation from electrodes once. I used some afterhave (Mennen Gel stuff in the small blue bottles) which worked quite nicely to relieve the minor pain/itching.

  24. Did someone just mention the end of civilization?

    MAXINE WATERS TO CHAIR HOUSE FINANCIAL SERVICES PANEL.

    Not much will change. CA politician. Bank of America and Wells Fargo are probably important campaign contributors.

    The Dems will hold hearings, pass their Impeachment bills … and then what?

  25. {trumpet fanfare!} The end of civilization? NO ONE EXPECTS THE END of Civilization!” {trumpet fanfare!} exuent, stage left even……

    n


  26. One guest gone, 2 more arrived.

    You’re doing it wrong.

    Climate change will make us more likely to wet the bed

    Yep, that’s a keeper.

    kinda like the FAA’s upgrade of the air traffic control system. at least one upgrade was thrown out completely before being deployed….

    Or the FBI’s (or maybe DOJ’s) new crime tracking system, which never worked and was, IIRC scrapped after several failed attempts to kludge it into sorta working. Or the IRS’s all-new system on all-new (big and expensive) computers, which never worked and was scrapped without trying to fix it. Or the Obamacare website, which cost eight figures, was as big a failure as its namesake, and which ever succeeded only by defining “success” down to an embarrassing level.

    You know what all of these had in common? They were all implemented by contractors with strong political ties. And the contractors all got paid.

  27. I had a conversation with a co-worker which resulted in him scurrying off to hit Google

    Hit Google ???

  28. Damnation. I added another camera to my system. While doing so I was interrupted by dinner and when I came back, the NVR software was borked. Couldn’t get it to behave normally, so I rebooted. Windows has been updating “Getting Windows Ready- don’t turn off your computer” for over a half hour now. I can hear the disk drive, so I know it’s doing something. What I NEED it to be doing is recording video. F’ing MS, it’s MY MACHINE. ASK me first you rotten sons of witches.

    n

  29. Hit Google ???

    Not literally.

    On second thought, he may have used Yahoo. It was 15 years ago.

    The country today wouldn’t be able to endure the kind of hard medicine administered by Voker in the late 70s/early 80s to reign in inflation. Too many livelihoods are based on cheap money.

    Even 6% 30 year bonds would finish the housing market.

  30. Or the Obamacare website, which cost eight figures, was as big a failure as its namesake, and which ever succeeded only by defining “success” down to an embarrassing level.

    Ah, CGI. I didn’t work for that division, but, after 8 1/2 months working there after grad school I understand why the Obamacare website failed.

    When I called my project manager in Fairfax to give notice, he sympathized with my situation. The legacy AMS (the company CGI bought to establish a US operation) people got screwed over in that merger.

  31. The Dems will hold hearings, pass their Impeachment bills … and then what?

    Medicare for All ™.

  32. I just offered the Sales Associate job to a guy. I think that he is going to take it. He is unhappy with his current employer and is excited about moving into 100% sales (he is both sales and the warehouse manager at his present job).

  33. The country today wouldn’t be able to endure the kind of hard medicine administered by Voker in the late 70s/early 80s to reign in inflation. Too many livelihoods are based on cheap money.

    Even 6% 30 year bonds would finish the housing market.

    I think that interest rate increases have stopped as the Federal Reserve is surely watching the economy hit the wall as tariffs and interest rate increases have been implemented. Or, the Federal Reserve does tend to be a blind pig looking for acorns and may not see what is happening.

    The stock market is freaking me out as it is up 400 points one day and then down 400 points the next day. Makes no sense.

  34. BTW, on the hedge fund that failed, the idiots were shorting natural gas. Three storms just hit the natural gas market and caused the price to rise from $3 to $4/mmbtu.

    First, the natural gas usage has been zooming with the shutdown of a dozen ??? coal power plants in the USA (7 in Texas). The replacement power was mostly natural gas and kept the storage caverns from filling up at the low rates so they just turned on the compressors wide open to fill the caverns at the daily rate (much higher now !).

    Second, the 24 inch natural gas pipeline from Odessa, Texas to Dallas, Texas is being converted to crude oil. There is a 40 ??? inch natural gas pipeline being added but it won’t be ready for a year or three.

    Third, winter arrived early this year and we are using natural gas like crazy.

  35. @nick – I suspect that Windows had previously notified you about a pending update, and it was ignored. (I see those all the time.)

    And there is a setting (shown on the upgrade pending dialog) that you can use to set your updates to manual, or to a specific time frame when you are not likely to be using the system. (In Windows Update, Change Active Settings).

    As for making updates manual-only: https://www.pcworld.com/article/3085136/windows/two-ways-to-control-or-stop-windows-10-updates.html

  36. Whatever the update did, it hosed my NVR software. I can’t add cameras or change settings. Whenever I open the settings page it locks up. USED to run fine.

    I ran the installer for the NVR, and it did a ‘repair’ that was some version of .net reinstalling, so I suspect that got updated. Still not working correctly though. Hope iSpy gets a fix out soon.

    n

  37. Lynn writes “I am quite fascinated with how well the human body works. It can take an enormous amount of abuse and still keep on”

    For much the same reasons, I am currently fascinated by our dog. He’s a big one – a mutt, well over 80lbs in his salad days. All systems failing – back legs, eyes, ears, kidneys, liver, heart – we expect him to just not wake up, some fine day.

    The thing is: We’ve been thinking that for more than 3 years now. He’s now staggering towards his 16th birthday in April. Amazingly, he’s still a happy pup despite ever increasing limitations.

    Actually, maybe he’s undead.

  38. I think that interest rate increases have stopped as the Federal Reserve is surely watching the economy hit the wall as tariffs and interest rate increases have been implemented.

    The discount rate doesn’t affect us mere mortals as much as the 10 and 30 year bond rates. At this point, the Fed has very little control over those numbers unless they implement a QE4.

  39. The nuke threat was stupid hyperbole. Doesn’t make the guy any less of an idiot – he should have used a less extreme example.

  40. “he should have used a less extreme example. ”

    Because it would be ok if he said we’ll kill all of you with the bullets you love so much?

    It’s the very definition of a tyrannical government, “Give up your rights or we’ll kill you.”

    n

  41. One of the issues that Larry Correia approaches and doesn’t quite hit is that the left tends to think that the military are a bunch of unthinking robots that will go out and shoot to kill anyone. Maybe some of the PFCs are that way. But the officers? No way. They have generations of swearing loyalty to the Constitution, not the person in the White House. (I would never have it any other way!) If Pres. Trump or Pres. Beto ordered the military to do something like this, most of the upper levels of the military would resign first. And I doubt the lower level officers would comply.

  42. Please read “My Life as a Tyrant” by Chris Hernandez.

    https://chrishernandezauthor.com/2013/01/15/my-life-as-a-tyrant/

    Cop, soldier, peacekeeper, author, and tyrant.

    “If you think our police are no threat to your freedom, you’re living in a fantasy world. ”

    “My KPS officers were angry, frustrated and hesitant. They didn’t want to do to their people what we were about to make them do. But their jobs and livelihood, like mine, depended on following those orders. So we walked out of the station toward the bazaar.”

    There will always be those in positions of power who only need the thinnest excuse to do whatever they want. There will be judges who rule that the orders are “lawful”. There will be commanders who threaten the troops with all kinds of stuff for not obeying their “lawful orders.” History is not on the side of the oppressed in situations like this.

    n

    (and the last thing the cops will want is to lose their privileges in any time of strife.) “If you’re not one of us, you’re nothing, just a mutt like them.”

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