Wed. Mar. 18, 2020 – plugging away

Warmer and damp. We’re on the edge of a system according to the big picture FEMA guys, so we’ll either get rain or we won’t.

Didn’t get rain yesterday. Nice day. Got hot in the afternoon and sunny.

I did get some of the area under the patio roof cleaned up. I’ll finish that today and move shelves and food there. Then I’ll tackle more of the garage and driveway.

I sold 10 boxes of stuff yesterday, and one TV remote. Busy day, without making much money. Wife worked from home. Kids bugged us both.

I had a pickup order in with the USPS to get 6 boxes when my regular mail arrived. Carrier did not get out of the truck. On his way out of the cul de sac I stopped him and asked if he or someone else would be picking up my boxes. He was supposed to and he “forgot”. I chatted with him, and he sees any knock on from CV as an opportunity. He’s convinced the chinese built and released the bug. I asked him about masks and gloves (he was wearing gloves) and he repeated what the counter clerks said, he has to buy his own gloves. I got him a box and reminded him I sometimes call for pickup. Today I expect he will do the pickup without ‘forgetting’. That’s just another step on the decline, bribing people to do what they are supposed to do anyway. Hey, maybe I’ll give him a box of masks too.

It’s very weird sitting here all day with everyone home and most of my urgency past. Feels like a very rare weekend with no commitments. Yet, I know I need to be doing things while we can. The invisible menace is invisible. All of my instincts are screaming at me to keep getting ready for “it”. But with this threat, every contact is potentially devastating. People in the neighborhood are walking with their babies and other moms. People are breaking isolation all around me. It feels weird and wrong to just sit here isolated. I should be out shopping. I should be out working. I should be doing SOMETHING… but if I do, the clock restarts every time.

So we wait for an antibody test, and that will take the uncertainty away.

Until then, Market-ticker.org has a bunch of math and insists that we’re doing it wrong. I only skimmed but found a couple of places where he’s either wrong or ignoring uncertainty. We should know definitively in a week or so, and the consequences for not acting were huge.

Keep to yourselves! Stay away from crowds (and everyone else). Keep stacking while you can, if you can.

nick

92 thoughts on “Wed. Mar. 18, 2020 – plugging away”

  1. So we wait for an antibody test, and that will take the uncertainty away.

    It may be a while. The antibody tests may show a large percentage of the population as exposed and asymptomatic. Exposed people aren’t going to see the point of sitting home so the emphasis will shift to protecting vulnerable segments of the population until a vaccine or drug therapies are developed.

    Adoption of the antibody test will happen in places like TX and FL first, where, whatever the Governors’ faults, they don’t aspire to autocracy. NY will drag their feet because Cuomo struggles with his father’s unfulfilled ambitions of running a dictatorship, first in NY then as President.

    Cuomo’s daddy issues are worse than Mittens’ or Gore’s. Bill Clinton wasn’t supposed to take Saint Mario’s rightful throne in 1992 and trigger the Republican revolution in 1994..

    I’ve never forgotten Bill Clinton’s line from the Gennifer Flowers tapes, (my memory is probably not 100% accurate) “That Mario Cuomo scares me. He’s a mafioso or somethin’.” I’ll bet the Cuomo family hasn’t either. Clinton surviving that scandal was the end of their dynastic ambitions, especially once Bubba and Cankles went through the family’s FBI files.


  2. That’s just another step on the decline, bribing people to do what they are supposed to do anyway.

    Very significant point.

    I have an outlined and one-third-written essay on the transition of the US from a high-trust to a low-trust society, driven either deliberately or stupidly by economic, political, and cultural leaders. I haven’t been able to finish writing it partly because of my usual problems in getting an uninterrupted hour and partly because the subject is depressing or infuriating.

  3. re Andrew Cuomo: You ever get the feeling that he’s the stupider brother?

    The Cuomo’s are analogous to the Castro family in San Antonio. Juan and Juaquin take turns being “the idiot Castro brother”, but the family’s race pimp-fueled dynastic ambitions are limited by neither brother being able to speak Spanish.

  4. Sitting out of the market for a while. I expect much larger drops before a true recovery.

  5. Best Buy texted my fridge is still on schedule.

    Then I venture out into the CV soup to put something in it.

    I watched ST: First Contact last night since we were talking about it. “It’s my first ray gun.” lol!

  6. Tyler Durden byline, but presenting a possible upside of the virus mess.

    I’m guessing the author is a writer for one of the major car magazines which are left standing but too scared to write the truth about TSLA. Car guys know the economics, but car magazines have to try and attract the airport newsstand buyer.

    People like Brock Yates, the car journalist who coined the term “sh*tbox” when I was a kid, need not apply.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/coronavirus-may-be-reality-check-ends-worlds-love-affair-elon-musk

  7. My team is on work-from-home this week and for at least a few weeks. I was just getting used to being in an office every day again.

  8. Reality is starting to sink in…

    Also on Tuesday, Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly ordered all K-12 schools in the state to close for the remainder of the 2019-20 school year.

    ‘The reality of this pandemic is that it cannot be controlled statewide if school buildings return to normal operations or if they respond inconsistently within our local communities,’ Kelly said Tuesday afternoon.

    Newsom said …

    ‘I told her, “Honey, I don’t think the schools are going to open again,”‘ Newsom said.

    ‘If I can tell my daughter that and not tell your daughter … then I’m not being honest and true to the people of the state of California. Boy I hope I’m wrong, but I believe that to be the case.’

    Germany’s economy minister Peter Altmaier said the United States under Donald Trump had taken the threat of the virus even more lightly.

    ‘The outbreak of the crisis was probably underestimated even more so in the US than in some countries in Europe,’ Peter Altmaier told regional press group Funke.

    ‘That is the reason we very much hope that the US will manage to control the situation, also in our own interest,’ he added.

    ‘No-one hopes that the US economy would fall into an uncontrolled recession.’

    European leaders ‘underestimated’ the impact of coronavirus, the EU’s top official admitted today as the bloc agreed to shut its borders.

    Ursula von der Leyen said that ‘measures which seemed drastic two or three weeks ago need to be taken now’ as much of the continent goes into lockdown.

    The European Commission chief admitted that the virus ‘will keep us busy for a long time’, in an interview with Bild which was published today.

    European leaders are banning travellers from outside the bloc for 30 days to contain the spread of the virus and many governments are taking their own drastic measures.

    ——————————————————–

    Italian coronavirus infections have slowed in recent days after the country took drastic quarantine measures to stop the spread of the pathogen.

    The figures are a sobering warning to Britain, which unlike Italy has not closed schools, shut down shops or blocked travel.

    The number of daily cases in Italy has been fairly stagnant in the last four days, settling down at around 3,500 new patients per day.

    —last night when I looked Italy had slowed to a 4-5 day doubling. I’m concerned though that the 3500 limit is due to some other factor, like the ability to process tests, or intake new patients.

    —the UK graph is not smooth which implies non-natural numbers. Still 4 day double.

    —the italian pictures show undertakers with poorly fitted respirators, and one touching his phone with his gloved hand. Anyone think he’ll disinfect the phone before using it at home? Or his pocket?

    ————————————————————–

    as many rush to grocery stores to stock up on necessities just 24 hours after bars and restaurants were restricted to takeout and delivery options only.

    — so when a hive dweller does it it’s “stock up on necessities….” but when I do it it’s panic buying and hoarding. Glad to get that straight.

    De Blasio said he is launching a citywide campaign that will ‘look and feel like a wartime message’ to get ‘anyone’ with ‘any’ healthcare qualifications to lend a hand.

    —medical draft coming next?? it’s in the playbook. They don’t have the bribes in place and no one is ready to believe any threats, but it will come. Mighty nice family you’ve got there. Bank account too. Shame if something happened to them because you were too selfish to help out. Comrade.

    As of Tuesday morning, 1,374 people in New York had tested positive for coronavirus.

    Of that, 264 people have been hospitalized. In just a day, there have been 432 new cases, making it the hardest hit area in America.

    Cuomo said healthcare experts have told him the virus is going to peak in New York in 45 days.

    Then, he anticipated needing between 55,000 and 110,000 hospital beds, along 18,600 and 37, 200 ICU beds. At the moment, the state only has 53,000 beds and 3,000 ICU beds.

    —that is going to leave a mark. Because everyone who doesn’t get an ICU bed who needs one will die. It looks like he expect 4 to 9 doubles in the next 45 days. That is pretty optimistic. 10 to 14 if nothing slows it down, giving an upper bound for beds of 4 million.

    Coronavirus infects prison employee at Sing Sing in Westchester County raising fears it could spread throughout the whole jail

    An employee at the notorious Sing Sing state prison in Westchester County tested positive for the coronavirus, setting off fears the virus could spread
    The state Department of Corrections confirmed Tuesday night that the worker tested positive, but that no inmates have tested positive for COVID-19
    Two individuals, both currently asymptomatic, have been tested due to a potential contact, the agency said, and the results were pending

    —-they’re testing inmates?? Not quite what they say, only that none tested positive… Bad news in any case.

    n


  9. Also on Tuesday, Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly ordered all K-12 schools in the state to close for the remainder of the 2019-20 school year.

    How long before mandatory attendance in public school until 19 years of age. Gotta indoctrinate.

    Also, any plans for homeschooling supported *completely* by the goobermint? Resources like books, iPads, boards, etc. The taxpayer *paid* for them.

  10. —medical draft coming next?? it’s in the playbook. They don’t have the bribes in place and no one is ready to believe any threats, but it will come. Mighty nice family you’ve got there. Bank account too. Shame if something happened to them because you were too selfish to help out. Comrade.

    From what I understand from my wife, holding a medical license in the US comes with a condition that the holder is subject to involuntary conscription into the US Public Health Service, but the system has never been tested.

    Between the syphilis studies on black men in the 30s and appointment of pinheads like Jocelyn Elders as Surgeon General (head of the service), the USPHS doesn’t exactly have a sterling reputation. I imagine that, absent a gun in their face, a lot of doctors would regard a conscription order as something of a joke.

    And do we really want to reach a point where we’re putting a gun in the face of medical professionals? Really?

    The big problem, however, won’t be doctors as much as support staff such as nurses and respiratory therapy techs. I don’t think their licenses are subject to the same restriction so a *lot* of money will have to be sprayed around. Then the doctors will insist on getting serious money to stay on the job, regardless of conscription.

    As I’ve pointed out before, healthcare has devolved into a lousy blue collar job at all levels. Why should my wife be forced to report to take care of people in Seattle when we couldn’t afford to live there during normal circumstances? The West Coast pinheads who think nothing of buying a $100k Tesla Model X balk at the prospect of even a $25 copay, and that copay is about what a GP in WA takes home for the visit.

    A lot of ugly is coming resulting from the last 30 years of medicine as a political football. We’re going to reap what has been sewn in this situation.

  11. Well, the Tri-Cities (Kennewick, Richland, Pasco WA) has its first confirmed case of COVID-19. A 20-year old female who recently traveled to China.

    The house is filled with the sound of keyboards clacking as son and daughter work their first full day from home. So far my Charter/Spectrum internet is cruising along. My son’s company decided to use a VPN for “security,” and it is taking forever as his traffic is bouncing from 10 to 20 countries. Dad has a few tricks up his sleeve to see where things are going and coming. I’m not an IT Specialist, but I do watch Penelope Garcia on Criminal Minds, and I’ve been using the internet since way before Al Gore invented it. Long live ARPANET.

    I got a call from my hairstylist (well, beard stylist) to cancel my appointment next week and reschedule at the end of April. The dentist called to cancel and reschedule my son’s dental checkup. The HVAC company called and scheduled my Spring Planned Maintenance. At least someone is working.

    I’m just sitting back waiting for my gooberment emergency cash check that the politicians are all promising. Supposed to be at least $1000.00.

    Why hasn’t the gooberment opened up centers to distribute MREs? Gee, we are in a National Emergency so this seems appropriate. IIRC some of the MREs even have a few sheets of toilet paper.

    Some of our stores have established special hours exclusively for the elderly, pregnant persons (let’s be politically correct here), and people with compromised immune systems.


  12. pregnant persons (let’s be politically correct here)

    Quite right. Who are you to judge the sex or gender of someone whose womb is growing a child?

  13. In other news: Brady? The Yucs? Really?

    The Jameis Winston experiment appears to be over. Jimbo Fisher has to be breathing easier since the Winston era in Tampa could have ended with a few vault doors creaking open and a lot of finger pointing originating from One Yuc Place.

    Of course, given Yuc history, Winston could very well go somewhere and win Super Bowls. Fine Christian man or not, Trent Dilfer laid an egg in Tampa with a questionable work ethic and still went on to nail a ring with the Ravens. The Doug Williams and Steve Young stories are well known, and somewhere in there were Steve DeBerg (better years with the Chiefs), Vinnie Testeverde (Jets), and the latest post-Tampa minor success, Ryan Fitzpatrick leading a Dolphin team given up for dead even by the ownership in the 2019 season.

    https://www.tampabay.com/sports/bucs/2020/03/18/see-how-tom-brady-to-bucs-made-headlines-around-united-states/

  14. OMG
    Local news is showing film taken at 08:00 a.m. this morning at our local Costco and there is already a line going completely around the building and more people are showing up. The news reporter says that Costco was not planning to open early.

    There will be film at 11 of the ensuing riots.

  15. Those are the folks who waited until it showed up locally?

    It’s finally getting real for them?

    n

  16. Sitting out of the market for a while. I expect much larger drops before a true recovery.

    Even though I think they deserve their fate at this point, Boeing will get a bailout. Others will follow, even the casino operators.

    Helicopter money is coming.

  17. Been in an Office Depot since Christmas?

    You’ll be the only one shopping in there, guaranteed.

    I was in ours back in end of January. There were four people there including yours truly. Plus three clerks. In 25,000 ??? ft2 of space. It was surreal.

    BTW, they had reduced the inventory so much that the aisles were 12 to 20 ft in width. Previously they were trying to figure out how to get the aisles down to 3 ft width.


  18. Cluster of delivery men gather outside exclusive restaurant Carbone to pick up 150 orders of take-out as NYC’s most exclusive restaurants shut their doors to dine-in customers

    Carbone, one of the most notoriously difficult-to-get-in-to restaurants in New York, is offering food to go
    After it put its menu on Caviar, a take-out app, New Yorkers rushed to it and placed 150 orders
    It created a cluster of delivery men outside the Greenwich Village eatery on Tuesday night

    –look at the picture. F me. WTF is wrong with people? Italy got jumpstarted by a sick food delivery guy.

    n

  19. Check this,

    “Cuomo added that it ‘breaks his heart’ that he cannot see his own daughter – who has not seen for two weeks.

    ‘It frightens me to the core.’

    He said he told his daughter when he spoke to her how heartbroken he was not to be able to hold her and kiss her, but he urged the public to push through and said it was only a short amount of time. ”

    –he isolated his family TWO WEEKS AGO.

    n


  20. Helicopter money is coming.

    Really! When do I get mine? Do Blackhawk pilots get more?

  21. The fridge and mattress are here! Dudes got the fridge squared away in 15 minutes.

    Wife (still in Vegas) scored eggs, milk, TP etc at Whole Foods today. Apparently WF is too rich for most common folk. She checked Sprouts and they had eggs, too. I’ll have to hit them up. The grocer in Vegas is Smith’s (Kroger). They were out of all the usual. They have a special morning hour for Seniors. HEB, no, saying, social distancing. Right, like that happens during the regular hours.

    People were passing up on chopped steak at HEB. It is going to make a mighty fine steak sammich. Got steaks, kielbasa, pork sausage, cold meats, cheese, spuds, corn beef hash, containers of chopped onion, green pepper, cilantro, etc. Wine, beer, buns, sour cream, cream cheese. Package of carnitas, shredded chicken, etc.

  22. “Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU)” on March 18, 2020
    https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

    Worldwide Total Confirmed 211,853, an increase of 21,159 from 190,694 yesterday

    Worldwide Total Deaths 8,724, an increase of 1,205 from 7,519 yesterday

    USA Total Confirmed 7,323, an increase of 1,621 from 5,702 yesterday

    USA Total Deaths 115, an increase of 21 from 94 yesterday

    Hat tip to:
    http://drudgereport.com/

  23. Florida cases jumped 100 today, just as my sister-in-law posted pictures from her St. Patrick’s day party night out in Downtown Orlando with large crowds, mostly locals, in attendance. I guess we know what’s happening rhere.

    My wife and her sister are only half Chinese, but my sister-in-law loves the You Ain’t Got No Ice Cream game.

  24. You Ain’t Got No Coronavirus.

    Record a nice Nelson Munz-esque “Ha ha!” video if you get the news that she got sick.

  25. Well, I know that they are still working in Beijing, China. An engineer crashed my software there this morning five times while trying to use a cracked copy of it.

  26. So we wait for an antibody test, and that will take the uncertainty away.

    Sorry, but antibody tests are notoriously unreliable. We have been dealing with Lyme antibody tests monthly or quarterly for our daughter for over a decade now. I even have a paper from BCBS stating that they will not pay for Lyme antibody tests anymore since they are so unreliable. The test results are 30 to 120 IIRC and covers three antibodies. Her results jump from 50 to 100+ month to month and 1 to 3 antibodies. I have to pay $71 for the test out of my pocket for about two years now.

  27. Sitting out of the market for a while. I expect much larger drops before a true recovery.

    I did that back in 1998 or so for five ??? years. I missed the market doubling before I got back in.

  28. Why hasn’t the gooberment opened up centers to distribute MREs? Gee, we are in a National Emergency so this seems appropriate. IIRC some of the MREs even have a few sheets of toilet paper.

    I’ve been maintaining for a long time that we need to get rid of WIC and Food Stamps. Just have an 18 wheeler at the back of each Post Office full of MREs. Not the same MREs that we give the troops but a flavored soy version at 2,000 calories. Go there, show your government picture id, and get a civilian MRE.

  29. I did that back in 1998 or so for five ??? years. I missed the market doubling before I got back in.

    Stocks still aren’t cheap. Even BA. The market expects a bailout.

    I did see one stock I watch pass through my “interesting” point this morning. I have a Limit Order in at the “very interesting” point. The upside of the rapid market decline is you can quickly figure out where a company told its NYSE Specialist to defend a certain price with a *lot* of money.

  30. I think that most of the people in the world, including the USA, have already been exposed.

    I believe the politicians are afraid that’s what the antibody tests will show, even with a lot of false positives from the tests.

  31. Crude oil is down to $20/bbl.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL=F?p=CL=F

    ADD: The Saudis are now reaping the whirlwind. They went after the Russians and the USA frack oil producers with $25 oil. Now we are going to test the bottom. Reputedly, the Saudis can produce oil at $11/bbl. I’ve seen what their infrastructure involves, no freaking way. $25/bbl would be a minimum, more like $35/bbl. Maybe even $45/bbl.

    Crude oil is now cheaper than water. Get it while you can. Back in 1986, my employer bought a million barrels of #6 fuel oil at $6/bbl. The Texas PUC made us get rid of it a year later so we converted it to electricity. And then bought more diesel at $20/bbl for our 15 new gas turbine peakers.

  32. Crude oil is down to $20/bbl.

    Crazy. Wheat is 190-ish/bushel and GLD (paper gold) is at 140. Oil should be up there, hunting for equilibrium with the other two.

  33. “Banks are going to drown in an ocean of defaults”
    https://www.sovereignman.com/trends/banks-are-going-to-drown-in-an-ocean-of-defaults-27537/

    “There’s $250 TRILLION in global debt right now– mortgages, credit card debt, business loans, government debt, etc.”
    “And banks own a large portion of that debt.”
    “This virus crisis is going to trigger a wave of defaults from consumers, businesses, and even governments.”

    He is not wrong. It will be the middle 1980s all over again. I am hoping to weather this without doing anything drastic.

    Just ignore his advertising.

    BTW, just wait until we get to the other side. We are going to have inflation like you have never seen before.

  34. Most businesses in Switzerland are officially shut down – certainly anything that involves putting people into an enclosed space. All restaurants, bars, clubs. All brick-and-mortar businesses except for food stores and pharmacies. All entertainment of any type: cinemas, museums, swimming pools, fitness centers. All businesses involving close personal contact, such as hair stylists, manicurists, etc..

    The Swiss militia is being mobilized, one piece at a time. All medical companies and batallions, except they are not drawing on personnel working as civilians in hospitals, etc.. Infantry units will be used to help at the border, to reinforce the police, and to help with logistics.

    Medical students are apparently being released from school and “volunteered” to work in hospitals when the wave hits. I don’t know the details…

    It’s all kind of weird, because there aren’t that many cases yet, not really. It’s all preparation for the coming wave, which some people just don’t understand.

    In the cities, where the virus is spreading the fastest, apparently a lot of people are laughing at the situation. The police had to forcefully shut some restaurants. Lots of people are holding parties in their homes. If this sh!t doesn’t stop, the government will have to enforce a curfew.

    In the US: What’s the deal with the food lines we’re seeing on the news here? I would have assumed the truly poor all have food stamps (or Snap, or whatever it’s called). Why the run on food banks? Or is that media exaggeration?

    And handing out money to everyone? What a great idea! Not. Said money would go everywhere but where it ought to. Seriously, that’s just pandering to the FSA.

    – – – – –

    On a funny note: The Swiss reddit group includes a lively discussion between extroverts, who claim that home-office is just unbearable, and introverts, who are calling it “paradise”.

    – – – – –

    On a cheerful topic: I talked with more neighbors today than I have in months. From a safe distance, and outdoors, so no worries – everyone here is taking Corona reasonably seriously.

    This was sparked by the fact that construction company is suddenly making massive progress on the house, and we had to coordinate some stuff. Still a long ways to go, but it’s starting to actually look like a house 🙂

  35. Almost certainly the “food lines” are comprised of people who have money (or credit or EBT cards) but no food in the house because they’re oblivious idiots.

  36. Jim, I don’t remember if I’ve ready any of Hall’s work, but I certainly didn’t originate the high-trust/low-trust concept. I don’t recall where I first came across it, though.

  37. In the US: What’s the deal with the food lines we’re seeing on the news here? I would have assumed the truly poor all have food stamps (or Snap, or whatever it’s called). Why the run on food banks? Or is that media exaggeration?

    Stores are limiting how many people can be in the building at a time, including employees, to limit the spread of the virus.

    Also, figure some media exaggeration. Food is available without a lot of effort here in Central Texas, and the European media would like to see Trump gone almost as much as the US media.

    The distribution system in the US is predicated on the concept that people eat out frequently. They’ve essentially had to rebuild the system while it was slammed to capacity.


  38. And handing out money to everyone? What a great idea! Not. Said money would go everywhere but where it ought to. Seriously, that’s just pandering to the FSA.

    No, it is pandering to the upcoming election. People will remember the money, who voted to approve the money, and that is who will get elected. Clowns with no real job experience. Or maybe it is the FSA, comprised mostly of people who can’t figure out a 10% tax on an item.

    What do I know. I will not get the money, because, well, I have money. I will instead be forced to pay more money via taxes to the losers in this country.

  39. “U.S. summons Chinese envoy over Beijing’s coronavirus comments”
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-diplomacy/us-summons-chinese-envoy-over-beijings-coronavirus-comments-idUSKBN2102XW

    “WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. State Department summoned the Chinese ambassador to the United States on Friday to protest against comments by Beijing suggesting the U.S. military might have brought the coronavirus to Wuhan, as tensions between the two global powers over the outbreak intensified. ”

    For those who missed this discussion on Rush Limbaugh’s show this morning, the President is not happy that many Chinese officials are blaming the Chinese Flu on the USA. Yes, they really are blaming the USA for their sloppy viral practices.

  40. I’ve been talking about high trust vs low trust for some time. Can’t recall where I first came across the idea but it was a useful one so I glommed on. The best part is it gives me a tool to use when other tools would automatically brand me a racist if I pointed out other ‘comorbidities’ in the populations under discussion. It lets you look at the same social issues that often come up in racial discussions and frame them in a cultural light instead of racial.

    Time preference is another useful idea.

    n

  41. pandering to the FSA as well as easing the immediate pain of job loss due to shutdown. It should be like WA state and be thru state unemployment. If you don’t have a job loss, then you should still be making it however you made it before.

    Cities will burn before this is over. The entitled class will screech and stomp and make demands. Hopefully, in a “tough times demand tough actions” manner someone will use the crisis to break the chain, and stop that nonsense. I’m not betting on it. I’m betting on appeasement, esp as it’s not their money that will be given away. Eventually either the money or the soothing will run out and then the cities will burn. Personally, I wish I had a scoped rifle to help solve the problem. That’s one of those things I never got around to.

    Threaded barrel and suppressor is another….

    n

  42. Threaded barrel and suppressor is another….

    That would make you a terrorist to a certain segment of the population, the FSA.

  43. In non-Corona-virus news, straw bales for gardening are in, organic fertilizer applied to top, watered.

    This will be my third spring here and it’s become evident that whatever the former owner used as a herbicide is still active, few things planted survive. He was a safety guy at Lockheed Martin and probably had access to some *interesting* chemicals.

    I put in some bare root fruit trees a few weeks ago (gifts) and amended the dickens out of the soil, hoping for the best there. But I’ll be 70 before they are fully mature (((:-)))

  44. Planting trees is an exercise and expression of optimism. One of the things that would bother me most about moving away from this house is the trees I’ve planted.

    n

  45. @Nick, yes, the trees I planted are about the only thing I miss about the old place. Mature peach and apple, branches nearly breaking from the fruit some years, despite thinning.

    Ah well. If I just *assume* I’m living to 90 or 100 it’ll be something to look forward to.

  46. You do realize that you are publishing your home address, where your family and your stocks are to the world at large? Very high trust…

    That house is close to my home address, yes.

    And just anybody who knows how to search can find me since I do not obfuscate my name.

  47. Didn’t the mayor object publicly when Baltimore was called a sh!thole?

    Baltimore Mayor begs residents to stop shooting each other and ‘clogging up’ hospital beds which need to be kept open for coronavirus patients after SEVEN people are shot in a single night

    Baltimore Mayor Jack Young pleaded with Baltimore residents to put down their guns after seven people were shot in a single night ”

    –we’re probably overdue for thinning the herd. It’s just a damn shame that the good people are going to pay the price too.

    n

  48. I’ve been using the internet since way before Al Gore invented it. Long live ARPANET.

    Then you remember BB&N routers. I worked with Continental Airlines Research and Development in the mid 80’s on better ways to connect travel agents to their reservation network. We were playing with packet switch technology when BB&N told us about this TCP/IP thing. So we got a router (a half rack as I recall) and hooked up our Tandem Non-Stop testbed and bingo, we could see major universities and a few big corporations. TCP/IP was clearly the answer to our problem. BUT – there’s always a big BUT. The high-speed infrastructure we needed to roll this out to hundreds of thousands of endpoints all over the country didn’t exist yet. So we went with packet switching … sigh.

  49. WTF kind of a useless list is this? What does the author think people will do with that mess?

    What should a family of four add to their shopping list?

    1 x 5kg bag of rice

    2 x 1 kg bag of quinoa

    1 x 5kg bag of oats

    1 x 1kg bag buckwheat

    3 x bags pasta

    1 x 5kg bag red or green lentils

    1 x 2 kg bag of split peas

    1 x 1 kg cannellini beans

    7 x garlic bulbs

    8 x brown and red onions

    Assorted herbs and spices according to personal preference

    9 x tins tuna

    5 x tins sardines

    1 x jar anchovies

    3 x dozen eggs

    7 x tinned tomatoes

    1 x bottle apple cider vinegar or balsamic

    1 x kg nuts of choice

    2 bags x potatoes

    2 x pumpkin

    –don’t believe anything else in the article either. Freaking eggs will last for more than a week sitting out unrefrigerated or longer if stored in oil. NOT that I recommend that, but I have seen it with my own eyes.

    –the key to having stuff last longer is avoid contaminating it. Never double dip. Get a clean spoon. Don’t cross contaminate. I’ve got jelly from over a year ago in the fridge. Mustard too. Pickles. Veg lasts until it’s rotten, and even then someone hungry enough isn’t going to pass it by.

    not a canned good in the list. FFS.

    n

  50. And this is bad news.

    Children and young adults may not be as safe from coronavirus as previously thought, the Trump administration said on Wednesday.

    ‘We have not seen any significant mortality in children but we are concerned about the reports coming out of Italy and France,’ said coronavirus task force member Dr Deborah Birx during a press briefing.

    She didn’t give specific numbers of children infected, nor does a JAMA report on Italian cases document any among people there under age 29.

    But more cases among children in China have come to light, suggesting kids broadly may be equally vulnerable to adults
    , and that those under age five may be at risk of falling seriously ill.

    Dr Birx also urged millennials to take their health and safety seriously amid the coronavirus, citing a rise in severe cases of coronavirus among young adults in China, Italy and South Korea.

    n

    added- another article

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8124901/Young-people-dying-coronavirus-despite-elderly-people-worst-affected.html

  51. The number of deaths in Italy is getting ready to pass the number of deaths in China. 2,978 versus 3,122 now.
    https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

    Can I submit that with an median age of 45 in Italy versus an median age of 37 in China, that there are proportionately more old people to get sick in Italy ? Of course, we are talking about 60 million population in Italy versus 1.3 billion in China so maybe that does not hold water.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age

    Or, China is not reporting their actual numbers. I must admit I do not trust the Chinese government.

  52. Site is a bit slow these last couple of hours, but not the kind of slow we used to see. This just looks like inet lag.

    Amazon is taking orders for Keystone canned turkey, 14oz, ~5$. In stock April 2, get in line now, limit 6 cans. FWIW.

    n

  53. Amazon is taking orders for Keystone canned turkey, 14oz, ~5$. In stock April 2, get in line now, limit 6 cans. FWIW.

    https://www.amazon.com/Keystone-Meats-Natural-Canned-Turkey/dp/B00B59QDGA/?tag=ttgnet-20

    Interesting. 14.5 oz of turkey is a lot to consume at one sitting unless you are feeding several people.

    I just read an article that the grocery stores are getting ready to receive trucks of nothing but toilet paper. They will have entire pallets of the stuff in the aisles.
    https://kdvr.com/news/coronavirus/full-trailers-of-nothing-but-toilet-paper-trucking-companies-see-uptick-of-goods-coming-to-denver/

    And we were allowed to order 20 cases of Ozarka bottled water for the office today for delivery Monday. But I cannot say where. We have three cases left at the office and use four cases a week as I do not trust the water well for drinking or coffee. When the Brazos River peaked in Sept 2018 (Harvey !), several of my neighbor’s wells were under water for a week. Our well produces from the third sand layer but, who knows how the water is moving 240 ft down.


  54. Freaking eggs will last for more than a week sitting out unrefrigerated or longer if stored in oil.

    Considering that a hen will lay a clutch of about 20 eggs before sitting on them for another three weeks, eggs are meant to “keep”.

    Washed and dried, in cartons, six months easy in my spare fridge. Although they do dry out a bit. Six months is actually a long time for me. When I had forty hens laying, yeah, easily three dozen eggs a day into the fridge. Er, forty or fifty dozen…..

    I haven’t tried oil.


  55. Interesting. 14.5 oz of turkey is a lot to consume at one sitting unless you are feeding several people.

    Yes, the turkey and beef are filling. I bought the 28oz cans just because of the price per ounce difference. I have a refrigerator.

  56. On Covid-19 numbers. I believe we have to be very careful.
    1. Different jurisdictions have different methodology. I heard that at least one EU country does not report an infected Covid-19 death as Covid-19 if they say die of pneumonia.
    2. It is likely that half of infections, possibly more, are never recorded – they never feel unwell.
    3. I don’t believe anything from China or Iran.

  57. The only way to get a good handle on the prevalence of Chinese Bat Cooties in a population is to grab, say, 1000 members of that population and test them all. This assumes there are test kits and facilities available and that the test is very accurate. Without that, all we’re doing is guessing.

  58. WTF kind of a useless list is this?
    About 100,000 calories there, give or take a few thousand.
    It’s the kind of list that leaves people hungry and thinner. And Fluffy nowhere to be found.
    Assume 2,200 calories a day per person, with 4 people to feed. You’d get maybe 11 days. It says ‘add to their shopping list‘ , for what that’s worth. Not much.

  59. I seem to recall that in the old days they use something called egg glass, sodium silicate? to preserve eggs. Might be fun to look that up.

    I’ve mentioned it before, but practically everyone I know in India has a countertop reverse osmosis unit. It would be fun to see if anyone sells them here.

  60. @~jim

    Egg preservation: https://www.incredibleegg.org/eggcyclopedia/p/preservation/

    During the early 20th century, water glass was used with considerable success. Water glass, a bacteria-resistant solution of sodium silicate, discouraged the entrance of spoilage organisms and evaporation of water from eggs. It didn’t penetrate the eggshell, imparted no odor or taste to the eggs and was considered to have somewhat antiseptic properties. However, it did a rather poor job at relatively high storage temperatures. Eggs preserved in a water-glass solution and stored in a cool place keep 8 to 9 months.

  61. 3. I don’t believe anything from China or Iran.

    I don’t believe the India numbers. No way.

    Nor do I believe that the Dell employee took the illness there from Round Rock unless it is in the local expat community in significant numbers. Anymore, they have their own neighborhoods, schools, and even half of a movie theater on weekends.

  62. It works on faucet pressure alone. Slow but effective when I checked the hardness. I use it to fill my H2O distiller to keep scale down.

    We inherited a reverse osmosis system built into the sink in our kitchen. The home inspector told me not to use it without having the whole system refurbished by a tech since people get lazy about the maintenance. We haven’t touched it in six years.

  63. I have this one:

    https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B06XY66PZJ/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_search_asin_title?ie=UTF8&psc=1&tag=ttgnet-20

    It works on faucet pressure alone. Slow but effective when I checked the hardness. I use it to fill my H2O distiller to keep scale down.

    I’ve got one of these under the kitchen sink in the new used house. It is broken. I do not have the time or energy to screw with it. I’ve still got stuff to fix in the old house. I am still tired from working on it last weekend.

    Hopefully we will get the old house on the market by the weekend. Here are the pictures (I know that the address is there):
    https://tours.tourfactory.com/tours/tour.asp?t=2719782


  64. WTF kind of a useless list is this? What does the author think people will do with that mess?

    Journalists know almost as much about prepping as they do about firearms.

  65. I’ve mentioned it before, but practically everyone I know in India has a countertop reverse osmosis unit. It would be fun to see if anyone sells them here.

    Is the tap water in India supposedly clean enough to drink ? Or is the unit cleaning dirty water to potable water ?

  66. I’m glad my wife is off this week. The Austin VA started screening at the door, expecting honesty without objective verification to the question, “Do you have a fever?”

    The answer is always ‘no’ because fever patients get hauled around to the side entrance where they wait for further screening.

  67. No eating Fluffy ! I almost hurled when John Ringo wrote about carving up the family dog for the kids during a blizzard in Wisconsin:

    “World War Z” goes cannibal at one point in Donner Party-like conditions.

    And the Klingons talking about eating Michelle Yeoh’s Captain character is not the last reference to huminoid-on-humanoid cannibalism discussed in the first season of “Discovery”.

  68. Started putting my armory in order this afternoon. I have about 50 magazines that need filling. Bought a case of 75 a couple of years ago. Set up the tactical gear for easy access. I hope the local range is still open because they all need sighting in after the move.

  69. I put my soft armor back together this evening.

    I need to get some stuff ready to be more at hand than my normal EDC and home setups.

    School district just sent out an eblast talking about studies at home ” in the weeks ahead.”

    I’m not liking living thru a pandemic. Of all the things I’ve planned for, this seemed like one of the least likely.

    I miss Bob.

    n

  70. “Coronavirus poses dreadful choice for global leaders: Wreck your economy or lose millions of lives”
    https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-03-18/coronavirus-poses-dreadful-choice-for-global-leaders-wreck-your-economy-or-lose-millions-of-lives

    “U.S. officials know the worst-case scenarios could be extremely bad. The White House has based some of its new plans on a research model developed by doctors and scientists at Imperial College in London that suggests the coronavirus epidemic in the United States could kill at least 2.2 million Americans over the next few months if left uncontrolled. ”

    I predict half of the private businesses in the USA are going bankrupt by August. The three months of paid sick leave that Congress passed this afternoon is the final screw. The asshats exempted businesses above 500 employees, what are they thinking ?
    https://www.newsobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article241315096.html
    and
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/coronavirus-updates-senate-passes-paid-leave-relief-bill.html

    “There are caps on the payouts: $511 per day for employees with the virus or in quarantine and $200 per day for employees caring for someone in quarantine or a child.”

    “Employers are eligible to be reimbursed for their costs.”

    Just what I need, more paperwork. Are they going to pay for my $30/hour accountant too ?

    And the devil is in the details. I feel a screwing coming on. I’ve already cut my pay in half since the first of the year retroactively. Now I am going to get royally screwed on selling a house that is costing me $3,000/month to keep.

  71. Watched Guardians of the Galaxy tonight. Felt really unfinished in parts, but was fun overall, with some true laugh out loud moments. Looking forward to vol. 2.

    n

  72. I predict half of the private businesses in the USA are going bankrupt by August. The three months of paid sick leave that Congress passed this afternoon is the final screw. The asshats exempted businesses above 500 employees, what are they thinking ?

    Paid sick leave is a backdoor change in the minimum wage. The Progs play a long game.

    Of course Amazon gets an exemption.

  73. @Ray..Thanks for the reply re church streaming.. Talked to the priest today, lots of high level talks regarding closing of churches or not. Looks like this virus has caught everyone by surprise.. Governments and Institutions..
    As at 9.00pm this evening 19 March.. Australia is in lock-down.

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