Wed. Mar. 4, 2020 – more to do, time is short

Warm and wet.

Yesterday started in the high 60s and warmed up throughout the day. No rain for me though.

I picked up some extra food, OTC meds, and cleaners. Hospital grade and they have that smell… I hope I never have to use them.

But I suspect I will.

My wife and I both try to avoid carbs as much as we can so we’ve gotten out of the habit of eating potatoes, with the occasional exception for the little colorful heirloom ones or tiny reds roasted. But some of you will have noted that I’ve bought over 100 pounds of potatoes in the last couple of days. I’ve bought a bunch of onions too. Other than rice, I can’t think of anything as cheap, versatile, durable, and tasty as the potato. Combined with onion and a fat, it can be cooked in dozens of ways from simple baked to fried, mashed, twice baked, with additives, or even raw. 100 pounds for $35. 100 meals for 35USD and it will store for 100 days if kept cool and dry. Go get you some!

As a taste of what’s to come, I thin sliced a few, and saute’d them in bacon fat with sweet onion and served them with dinner. Kids ate them up and oldest daughter complimented me and asked for more. Low carb prepping is hard. It can be done, but it’s expensive. The bulk of my “bulk” stored food is not low carb. It is what it is, and at the very least, I can give it away if not needed. If needed, I’ll enjoy the flavors of the forbidden carbs….

Keep stacking folks. If you don’t need it you can celebrate that it missed us… if you do need it you’ll be glad you had it. Remember Italy. They went to bed on a normal day and work up under quarantine. When it happens it will be sudden and unwelcome and probably completely unexpected.

nick

Author: Nick Flandrey

Mid 50s, stay at home dad, with two elementary school age girls. Love my family and my life.

68 thoughts on “Wed. Mar. 4, 2020 – more to do, time is short”

  1. Re Barrio shopping, I received this text from a friend last night:

    Stopped by 99 store to check out sanitizer. Completely wiped out. Beans and rice depleted too.

  2. Doomberg dropped out. Plugs is still alive. If they get Fauxahontas out, Plugs will be the DNC nominee.

  3. WHO just said that “travel restrictions should be a very limited part of any public health measures taken by authorities.”

    That right there gives me reason to not take anything else they say out loud as any sort of reasonable authority. WTactualF? Quarantine is by definition travel restriction. It is THE classic response to spreading disease.

    n

  4. Doomberg dropped out. Plugs is still alive. If they get Fauxahontas out, Plugs will be the DNC nominee.

    Crockajawea has effectively been out for a couple of weeks, ever since she got her Super PAC slush fund for “media buys”. All that’s left is the announcement.

    Bernie lost Florida a week ago, even my lefty friends in the state agree. The Dems need to be able to at least contest FL to stand a chance of winning.

  5. All, and I mean all, of our local print, TV, and radio had a field day with reporting the “panic” buying. I no longer watch or listen. I do have them all on my RSS reader so I can pick and choose. They all took great delight in showing the long lines at Costco and the empty shelves at as many stores as they could squeeze in.

    This is a media and government-generated panic that is being blown way out of proportion and is doing no good. As my cousin messaged me yesterday: “…didn’t people wash their hands and use toilet paper before?”. Simple truth.

    What are we going to do in a real pandemic? This is a created pandemic. The “test kits” (of dubious worth) are in limited supply so that what you are hearing is “presumptive diagnosis of Covid-19”. They really do not know for sure. And the gooberment is furthering the panic now by saying that the death rate from Covid-19 is 10-times greater than the Flu, based on projections of dubious merit.

  6. WHO said that fortunately this isn’t transmitted by asymptomatic people. When called on the statement, they clarified that they only mean people who NEVER develop symptoms but still spread the disease. That number is 1% of reported cases IN CHINA. That is still a lot.

    They admit that the number of what most people would understand a statement like that to mean, is much larger. MUCH larger. So the general understanding that people can spread the disease without appearing to be sick, is true. And the number of people doing so is much larger than 1%.

    F’ing lawyerly bullshite used to misdirect and miss-inform.

    n

  7. @dadcooks, we are getting reliable numbers out of Italy. Also Korea and Japan. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

    In italy there are 240 resolved cases. 79 died. 160 recovered. That’s a 33% death rate.

    In south korea, 35 died and 41 have recovered so far. 46%! That’s almost HALF.

    japan, ex-diamond princess has a 12 % death rate for resolved cases.

    None of those numbers are projections or hype.

    Remember the timeline for this. We’ve been following it for a month or more, but Italy and Korea have had all this happen in a dozen days or less. There hasn’t been time for the virus to kill everyone who will die from it yet. We’re in the lag period where people have it but haven’t resolved one way or another. Where we do have resolved cases, it’s terrifying.

    We’re also faced with the issue of testing. CDC is ramping up to do a couple of hundred tests a day. Other countries have done thousands or 10s of thousands. I don’t know why we aren’t doing more testing, but I know you won’t find what you don’t look for.

    Mexico only has 5 cases today. How many tests have they done? Are they in the shanty towns LOOKING for it? Ditto India, Africa, latin america…. and Chicago, LA, Seattle, etc.

    With Spring Break coming up, there is a LOT of economic incentive to DOWNPLAY the virus, not hype it, hence Florida being cagey.

    The media is what it is and they delight in mischief and suffering. They feel secure because their producers deploy them with pallets of support, or they have the money to parachute in and insulate themselves in high end hotels while watching the rest of us suffer while calling us fools.

    n

  8. All, and I mean all, of our local print, TV, and radio had a field day with reporting the “panic” buying. I no longer watch or listen. I do have them all on my RSS reader so I can pick and choose. They all took great delight in showing the long lines at Costco and the empty shelves at as many stores as they could squeeze in.

    There is a love/hate thing with Costco and the media. It is why I stopped playing the stock.

    Living around the corner from the Costco HQ complex in Seattle, I realized how quickly Amazon could squash the company directly if they had a mind to do so, but the problem is that Costco owns the Governor’s Mansion in WA State and wields a lot of power with no end in sight.

  9. With Spring Break coming up, there is a LOT of economic incentive to DOWNPLAY the virus, not hype it, hence Florida being cagey.

    The Times (Tampa’s only remaining paper) and the Gannett media outlets in FL would relish the opportunity to roast the Governor alive if they caught the state government being less than candid with regard to the virus.

    Republicans control all three branches of FL Government heading into redistricting next year, and the Dems are in disarray, facing being out of power for at least a decade. Governor DeSantis also has ambitions for the Presidency in four years and should coast to reelection in 2022 as long as he stays smart.

    “Smart” means he’ll endure the economic hit this year.

  10. @ed, we have dollar stores in all areas here and I know lots of people who shop in the dollar stores. The store I’m talking about, I was the only white guy I saw in the whole store. One other guy was leaving as I came in. I was eyeballed the whole time I was shopping. People did actual double takes when they noticed me. The store has a whole aisle of stuff from actual africa in baggies with laser printed stapled on labels. When they have an aisle for “ethnic” stuff, they mean white…..*

    nick

    *just kidding with that last sentence. The signs are in spanish first, then english. It’s a giant store btw.

    https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&sxsrf=ALeKk01zTBecLbZnG72KTlaTaniWFvgG_w:1583340601602&q=fiesta+store+north&npsic=0&rflfq=1&rlha=0&rllag=29826817,-95494973,14497&tbm=lcl&ved=2ahUKEwihovewo4HoAhUJPq0KHZYcD0gQtgN6BAgLEAQ&tbs=lrf:!1m4!1u3!2m2!3m1!1e1!1m4!1u16!2m2!16m1!1e1!1m4!1u16!2m2!16m1!1e2!1m5!1u15!2m2!15m1!1shas_1wheelchair_1accessible_1entrance!4e2!2m1!1e16!2m1!1e3!3sIAE,lf:1,lf_ui:4&rldoc=1#rlfi=hd:;si:12714945278309629762;mv:[[29.86023475198816,-95.32755678044822],[29.813924809245076,-95.41355913030173]]

    scroll down in the second pane for photos, which don’t capture the actual ambiance very well.

    https://www.google.com/maps/@29.8361295,-95.3854239,3a,75y,44.63h,71.9t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1s5YRbjfO2AjzetF43RCTsiw!2e0!7i16384!8i8192

    streetview doesn’t show the blowing drifts of trash, it must have been early in the day.

  11. The neighborhood used to be a black ghetto, but is turning brown as hispanics move in and squeeze out the blacks. There used to be a Magic movie theater complex a couple of blocks away, until Magic Johnson sold out to walmart. It’s the most robbed walmart in America now. The gunbattle I blogged about a year or more ago, where the target of a drive by shooting successfully defended himself with an AR rifle, killing all of the occupants of the car, happened just a couple of block from the store, on the other side of the freeway. This is not somewhere I stay past dusk.

    n

  12. One of the few things I miss about California is the plentitude of food outlets. There’s a Fiesta down in San Mateo we used to drive down to every once in a while. Excellent source for fresh lard in bulk, which was one of my storage items.

  13. This is a media and government-generated panic that is being blown way out of proportion and is doing no good.

    I am of the same opinion. This is no worse than the flu in my opinion. If the flu numbers had been tracked and reported with as much diligence as the KungFlu the numbers for the flu would be significant.

    Something else is driving the media frenzy. I think one starts and the rest don’t want to be left out. Government officials catch the news and start thinking about saving their jobs. So they start reacting. That reaction spurs on the media. Rinse and repeat. A giant fission reaction.

    One person dies in Washington. Old, 70+, in a nursing home, the last stop before the grave, probably would have died from a common cold. Media goes crazy and were all going to die. I ain’t buying it.

  14. “One person dies” — um, NINE of them so far….

    n

    Added- and they infected the guy in NC, and possibly everyone on his five hour flight, possibly the 24 first responders, and a whole lotta other people. That is pretty infectious btw, and pretty quick to onset of symptoms for the guy in WA and also the guy in NC.

  15. https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2667&v=dewARrJfhwg&feature=emb_logo

    link to the WHO press conference. Time is set to the very end. For the conspiracy minded listen to what she says.

    “I’d like to remind you all again that we are 8 weeks into this and we have seriologic assays. I think this is unprecedented. And someone needs to correct me if I’m wrong here, but this is unprecedented. To have a virus identified, a sequence shared a few days later, PCR assays to be ready a week or so later after that, and to have seriologic assays in use 8 weeks into an outbreak…..”

    Almost as if someone was already VERY familiar with the virus. Hmm.

    n

  16. In my experience it rare for the lines at Costco to be anything other than long, especially near the first of the month when lots of people get paid.

    When Dollar General showed up in CA I went once to check it out. I’ve never seen a reason to go back.

  17. “fresh lard in bulk, which was one of my storage items. ”

    –Funny, I looked closely at the lard there. They had many more choices than my local HEB grocery, even in the “ethnic foods” aisle. And this being America and Texas, you can also get a giant tub of bacon fat….

    https://www.amazon.com/Bacon-Up-Grease-Rendered-Cooking/dp/B07GQ2T9WJ?tag=ttgnet-20

    I haven’t bought any because I save my own bacon fat and it is sufficient for my needs.

    BTW, even though lard is shelf stable, don’t store the blocks in the garage if it gets warm. They will melt and all the lard will run out of the wax paper package…. ask me how I know that…

    n

  18. @paul h, I usually try to avoid lines at Costco. If you go during the day, during the week, particularly around 430, you will rarely have to wait. Of course, they usually aren’t handing out samples at that time…

    n

  19. seriologic assays in use 8 weeks into an outbreak…….

    I’m a biochemist (although I don’t play one on TV) who develops analytical testing for a living. That 8 weeks is amazing, but not impossible. It would have to have been a “put your best people on it and ignore all your other projects” situation. Modern analytical science is amazing. The equipment available to a well funded lab staffed with smart people can do things that would have been considered impossible when I started in this business more the 30 years ago.

    In addition you can build on an existing foundation. This is not the only coronavirus, just a nasty variant. Start with an existing assay and modify it for the specifics of this particular variant.

  20. My response the this potential medical disaster has been just like all other potential bad situations (storms, terrorist threats, elections, local team winning nation sporting event). I do a quick inventory of all this stuff I already have on hand. I may grab one or two extra items, if necessary, when I’m out and about. Right now I could stay in my house for the next 2 months. No panicking for me.

  21. @JLP, would 6 or 7 weeks be impossible? If the test is “in use” in the 8th week, it must have been done in 6 or 7 with time for validation and distribution, right? Or did your estimate include those things already?

    Always nice to hear some actual science-y comments. 🙂
    n

  22. “I may grab one or two extra items, if necessary, when I’m out and about. Right now I could stay in my house for the next 2 months. No panicking for me. ”

    –I could have gone to ground with just what I had but this will extend the time, and increase the comfort. There were a couple of things I fell behind on that I caught up on all at once. Rolling over OTC meds was the big one. That was a very big whack to take all at once. Food that isn’t packaged is on my “it’s coming right for us” list, and with a long home stay ahead, it’s the only exception to my normal ‘hurricane’ plan.

    I also had to bring cans and prepared meals up to date faster than I would have liked because of the rat depredations and being reluctant to restock until I was sure that issue was resolved. A lot of my “panic buying” during ebola14 is out of date and wasn’t put up properly (rice in particular but also bulk flour). That pile never got rotated home, because of the rats, and because it was deep reserve, and just in case….

    I still had 5 gallons of bleach, but it is aging too, and some heavy duty sanitizers from after one of the hurricanes, but I had the opportunity to add more, so I did.

    And I’m wasting time on the internet with my friends instead of working in the driveway.

    n

    (not an actual waste… paraphrase my wife and I use, of Uncle Owen’s admonition to Luke)

  23. Innumeracy is as bad as illiteracy.

    “The World Health Organization has since warned that the fatality rate of the virus (3.4 percent) is higher than initially thought – making it more than three times deadlier than the flu ”

    Um, 3.4 is 34 times 0.1.

    I guess that technically that IS more than three times…
    n


  24. “In suburban Seattle, 27 firefighters and paramedics who responded to calls at the outbreak nursing home were tested for the virus Tuesday using a drive-thru system set up in a hospital parking area.

    Thirty-year-old firefighter Kevin Grimstad took care of two patients Jan. 29 at Life Care Center in Kirkland. He is among 10 from the Kirkland Fire Department who developed symptoms after calls to the nursing facility.

    Grimstad, his wife and 6-month-old son have taken turns recovering from fevers, coughs and congestion. They’re all feeling better, but wish they knew more about the virus.

    ‘It’s crazy. A couple of weeks ago, it seemed like a foreign thing and now we´re getting tested,’ Grimstad said. ‘If I was exposed a month ago, the problem is more widespread than we know.'”

  25. @nick …time for validation and distribution…

    I guess the test was probably minimally validated with some looser criteria than usual. I would expect that the 8 weeks gave them a “good enough” test that failed mostly on false positive (you don’t want false negatives). An improved second generation is probably in the works to replace the first generation test ASAP.

    The first round of production would have been done by “research assistants” doing yoeman’s work making test kits with labels and instructions printed on the lab’s laser printer. This would continue until a real production lab was up and running.

    I’ve seen similar operations when getting testing up and running for contaminants.

    Fair disclaimer, what I do has to do with testing for biologic materials as well as general chemistry, not virus identification. But it overlaps.

  26. Lynn, I’ll bet that thermostatically controlled louver is for the intercooler. The radiator is probably controlled by a thermostat in the coolant, as usual.

    Nope, it is for the radiator to direct the wind underneath or around the vehicle on the sides. Trying to make a brick more aerodynamic !
    https://www.f150forum.com/f118/louvers-front-radiator-whats-story-355578/

    I figure that the louver motors will die along the way. Hopefully they do not figure in the go / no go portion of the engine management system.

  27. Butt Ranger is out, Doomberg is out, Bozo O’Rourke is waiting on the sidelines for Crooked Biden to run with according to Greg. The Houston Comical is running a picture of Biden and Bozo together:
    https://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Super-Tuesday-s-big-winners-and-losers-in-Houston-15104594.php#photo-19119228

    Folks, 2,060,130 people voted in the dumbocrat primary in Texas. 1,917887 voted in the repuglican primary. That does not bode well for the general election. I doubt that Trump can afford to lose Texas.

  28. BTW, even though lard is shelf stable, don’t store the blocks in the garage if it gets warm. They will melt and all the lard will run out of the wax paper package…. ask me how I know that…

    I pack mine into five gallon pails, toss in some oxysorbers, and seal it up. Stays good a very long time. Same for tallow, by the way. And it doesn’t leak. ;^)

  29. “One person dies” — um, NINE of them so far….

    n

    Added- and they infected the guy in NC, and possibly everyone on his five hour flight, possibly the 24 first responders, and a whole lotta other people. That is pretty infectious btw, and pretty quick to onset of symptoms for the guy in WA and also the guy in NC.

    So, it looks like the conspiracy theory that this is targeted to Asian men is a big pile of nothing.

  30. Butt Ranger is out, Doomberg is out, Bozo O’Rourke is waiting on the sidelines for Crooked Biden to run with according to Greg. The Houston Comical is running a picture of Biden and Bozo together:

    Robert Francis has to be in the electoral calculus for Texas, but I still see the nominee resulting from a brokered convention.

    MJ Hegar will be unable to direct her CA money at Trump until she wins the runoff in May, putting a crimp in the Dems’ TX plans, but not a fatal one.

    Appearing on local TV last night as the results came in at her campaign HQ in Round Rock, Hegar claimed that she was still paying the bills off for the delivery of her three year-old.

    Seriously? A C-suite exec with a make-work job at Dell doesn’t have decent insurance coverage?

  31. Unless jewish NY lawyers have the same extra receptors in the lungs, and their wives and kids and neighbors.

    Six new cases in LA, all with links to cases. This thing is catchy. The lawyer’s neighbor got it giving him a ride to the hospital.

    n

  32. And I’m wasting time on the internet with my friends instead of working in the driveway.

    Friends are good.

  33. Appearing on local TV last night as the results came in at her campaign HQ in Round Rock, Hegar claimed that she was still paying the bills off for the delivery of her three year-old.

    Seriously? A C-suite exec with a make-work job at Dell doesn’t have decent insurance coverage?

    She is a dumbocrat. They lie.

  34. “Jill Biden’s epic tussle: In split-second blocking maneuver, she protects husband from lunging vegans”
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elections-2020/jill-bidens-epic-tussle-in-split-second-blocking-maneuver-she-protects-husband-from-lunging-vegans/ar-BB10Jr7e

    Wow, Biden married up the second time. And yes, he was a widower for that marriage.

    And what is the anti Dairy movement ? Oh wait, more global warming crap.

    Hat tip to:
    http://drudgereport.com/

  35. Whoopi-Cushion Goldberg claimed on “The View” that Jill Biden is “a hell of a doctor” “should be Surgeon General”.

    I’m not making this up. There is video. Whoopi’s brains fell out into her Depends.

  36. Corona virus is concerning, yes, but don’t worry too much about the apparently high death rates. These are greatly exaggerated by the situations.

    In Italy: The virus apparently arrived there with illegal Chinese workers in Italian factories – not the sort of people who are going to report for official testing. It is almost certain that the disease was spreading for a while, before it was reported. Mostly those who become seriously ill went to the hospital, and were counted.

    It’s likely the same in the US, given the total cock-up by the CDC. No one knows how many cases are out there, so mostly the serious ones get counted. Plus, a lot of the deaths in the US are from a nursing home, and the virus is known to be dangerous to the elderly.

    Diamond Princess is actually a good laboratory. Cruises are mostly older people, who are the most vulnerable. 6 deaths out of 700 cases, with 35 more in serious condition. Worst case, all the serious cases turn out to be fatalities: that’s a rate of 6%, which is in line with suspected mortality for older folk.

    Japan isn’t even trying to count the active cases. As I understand it, they have just told people to stay home if they are sick. So again only the serious cases are being tested and counted. They have had 29 deaths, but likely out of thousands of cases.

    For statistics, I think the Worldometer mortality chart is probably the most accurate one out there at the moment. It shows a current overall mortality rate of around 3%. Given unreported cases, this should be a worst-case value. The deaths are almost entirely concentrated in older people. Zero fatalities so far in young children, and 0.2% for the rest of the population.

    At this point, the only reasonable goal for governments is to slow the spread, to gain time for a vaccine to be produced. That means travel restrictions, prohibiting large gatherings of people, and educating people on proper hygiene.

    Edited to add: Here, the government has prohibited events with more than 1000 people, and events for more than 100 must be reported. People are advised to stay home if sick. The biggest risk we face is the widespread use of public transport. As cases spread, I expect them to close schools and universities for a few weeks (Italy has already done this).

  37. Whoopi-Cushion Goldberg claimed on “The View” that Jill Biden is “a hell of a doctor” “should be Surgeon General”.

    “Dr.” Jill Biden has a PhD in Education.

    Whoopi got the talking points late last night.

    I still don’t buy Plugs as nominee. He’s too far gone off the deep end and the family corruption runs deep.

  38. I still don’t buy Plugs as nominee. He’s too far gone off the deep end and the family corruption runs deep.

    Plugs will be President about a week. Then he will step down and Bozo O’Rourke will establish a new Camelot.


  39. I still don’t buy Plugs as nominee. He’s too far gone off the deep end and the family corruption runs deep.

    They might have to look for a Missouri haberdasher at the convention. 😛


  40. Nope, it is for the radiator to direct the wind underneath or around the vehicle on the sides. Trying to make a brick more aerodynamic !

    I almost suggested that, but figured the louvers wouldn’t be needed on such a sleek vehicle. 😛

    There still should be a thermostat in the coolant, at least AutoZone lists one. But wait, I couldn’t find one on Napa and O’Reilly. Rock Auto lists one for 2019, but doesn’t list one for 2020. Something strange is going on. Maybe there isn’t one.

    In my opinion, there should be a thermostat to stop coolant from going into the radiator. Small coolant flows into the radiator can significantly delay engine warmup, because the radiator has mass and is still exposed to some air circulation with the louvers closed.

    The engine can warm up slowly without a noticeable effect on the heater. The reason is just how the coolant flow is done. Some engines use series flow and some parallel flow from the block through the head(s). There is more, but often the flow to the heater core is taken at the place where the coolant warms up the fastest, for an obvious reason.

    The temperature sensor should be located on the hot side of the thermostat, but it should not be high in the system. GM learned that the hard way for the aluminum Vega: it was possible to lose coolant and melt that engine. The coolant level dropped below the sensor, and the gauge said all was well when it wasn’t. Even GM, with their huuuge engineering budgets (in those days) sometimes made mistakes.


  41. “One person dies” — um, NINE of them so far….

    Understand. My local news stations went berserk when the first person died. All the reporting was from hospitals, the airport, and the UT basketball arena. We’re all going to die type of reporting.

    Unfortunately when a disease like this appears, almost anyone that has the disease that dies will be reported to having died from the disease. When in fact the individual may have other underlying health issues that any infection, common cold, flu, etc. would have done terminated the individual. Because the person had the disease the death is reported as from the disease rather than the underlying health issues. A death certificate only has a block for a single reason. Heart failure and Coronon-19 will not placed in the same block on the death certificate.

    I am still of two opinions on this virus reporting. First is that it is tabloid reporting. News media and outfits wanting to try and get a jump on the competitors. Second is that all the applicable information is not being released to the public by government officials “in the know”. Not these dumbo political candidates.

    I have also been through some major issues over time that were going to end the world as we know it. None of it came to pass. Fast approaching 70 and beyond I have been hardened from believing the doomsday scenarios being reported. There is a lot of money to made from scaring the population. Al Gore did it, others will too.

  42. Nope, it is for the radiator to direct the wind underneath or around the vehicle on the sides. Trying to make a brick more aerodynamic !

    I almost suggested that, but figured the louvers wouldn’t be needed on such a sleek vehicle.

    The 2019 F-150 has a LOT of tricks up its sleeves. But at the end of the day, it is still a truck.

    Reputedly, Ford is going to release the F-150 hybrid this August as a 2021 model. The gas engine / electric motor combo will be interesting. At least to me. If the additional cost if more than $3,000 then it will be a failure though.
    https://www.tfltruck.com/2020/03/2021-ford-f-150-prototype-caught-testing-with-all-led-lights-blaring-is-this-a-hybrid-spied-in-the-wild/

  43. Reputedly, Ford is going to release the F-150 hybrid this August as a 2021 model. The gas engine / electric motor combo will be interesting. At least to me. If the additional cost if more than $3,000 then it will be a failure though.

    If the vehicle offered a compelling reason to go hybrid such as speed and/or low end torque, I’m sure a market segment exists that would pay more than $3000. The sky seems to be the limit for big trucks around here.

  44. When we were looking for a vehicle for my wife the hybrid lexus SUV had a $7k premium over the regular gas lexus. People were buying them….

    @ ray, I hear what you’re saying, and respect it, but I’ve got two little kids and have to take it seriously.

    @brad, thanks for the info about the probable victims. That makes sense and is def not making the reporting.

    Problem is, we’ve got large populations like that here too. Asians sure, but 10x more hispanics. And homeless.

    WRT the elderly, yes, we’ll see it in more vulnerable populations first, which is why it’s so weird that kids aren’t sick. Most flu-like illnesses hit the young and old alike.

    Been in the driveway moving stuff, and setting up shelving for my excess stuff/food. Need to get back to covering it up and get dinner going.

    n

  45. Also, we’ll see how many people on the plane develop symptoms in the next week. That will be a good indicator to track.

    WRT large gatherings, you mean like Spring Break? Which starts next week in the US?

    n

  46. I have collected my orders from Walmart and HEB.

    I goofed on the spaghetti. One pound packages, not the 2# I usually buy. Same for the elbow macaroni. My fault.

    Actually, allowing for the time spent on the PC placing orders, and sitting outside waiting for the lady to bring the order to the car, it’s easier to just go in the store. HEB has a $4.95 “Personal shopper fee” plus an extra 3% markup. Not that I’m at all like Jack Benny…

    Walmart was interesting today. They now have automatic gates on the grocery side of the store. I assume to help funnel folks through the check stands and not just roll out the door through the produce department. Pickup at the tower thing was almost annoying. Scan the barcode on my phone. One package came from the tower. Sweet setup. The other six were in various lockers. And not lockers near the tower. Then the guy at the door that checks receipts wanted to see my receipt. Nope, you are not touching my phone, much less pawing through my bags and boxes of stuff. Just call the manager if you must.

    Someone here likes the Columbian K-cups. And the big cans of Planters Mixed Nuts. Both of which are frequently out of stock. No extra charge for Ship to Store. A problem solved if I keep track of inventory here.

    Ok. I have 3x 5# bags of flour, 1x 4# bag of flour tortilla mix, 2x 5# bags of Aunt Jemima self rising cornbread mix (LOT cheaper than the single batch bags), and 2x boxes of Barley. Plus 4x 5# bags of Riceland white rice.

    Vacuum seal and into the deep freezer tomorrow. Not sure about the barley. A couple of weeks at 10 or 15F below zero takes care of weevils. Vac seal first so stuff doesn’t get that freezer taste and it’s not sweating when sealed. I might be doing it backwards. Then it all goes onto a shelf with the canned goods.

    Walmart had no Vitamin C. D was spotty. I don’t know if this is normal. I bought a big bottle of “compares to Centrum Adult” and called it good.

    My list for Lowes stayed safely on my desk. I forgot. I’m due for dog and cat food so not a big deal.

  47. Local trip to Smith’s: plenty of water, canned goods and meat, TP. No Ramen except for the shitty stuff, still.

    I’m with Mr. Ray on the MSM has exacerbated the situation by reporting on every little thing. People are hoarding. “You ain’t got no ice cream” in effect.

    China lied from the beginning. I don’t think the FUSA goobermint lied, just incompetent boobs.

    President tRump is correct; don’t panic. Let’s wait to see what is killing people and in what age groups before you start taking pot shots at someone sniffing around your garage.

    Went to the Church Of Our Lady Of The Dauber (bingo) last night. No masks in sight, same number of people. Of course, when the real zombie Barackalypse hits, we’ll find the dead clinging to one arm bandits in Vegas.


  48. I hear what you’re saying, and respect it, but I’ve got two little kids and have to take it seriously

    Thanks. I find no fault in your actions, understand and respect what you are doing and saying. Difference of opinion.

    My biggest concern is the government is being truthful. Imagine that. I find the response odd for an illness that on the surface does not seem more of an issue than the flu. Old and weak succumb to the flu. Old and weak succumbing to KungFlu. The majority of those afflicted with KungFlu have recovered. Why the difference in response from the government?

    Speed of spreading? Seems to be much faster than the flu. Method of spreading? Seems to be easier to spread than the flu. Coincides with a political campaign? Manipulating the stock market? Bolstering drug manufacturers stock? Many scenarios.

    The last three or four serious illnesses SARS, KungFlu, a couple I cannot remember, have originated in China. Coincidence? Or deliberate on the part of the Chinese government? Genetic manipulation for what purpose? Lot of questions.

  49. When we were looking for a vehicle for my wife the hybrid lexus SUV had a $7k premium over the regular gas lexus. People were buying them….

    Way different market. F-150 is a million trucks per year. Lexus sales total are “For the year, Lexus reported sales of 298,114 vehicles, down 0.1 percent on a volume and DSR basis.” I would be surprised if hybrid sales were 10,000 vehicles per year.
    https://pressroom.lexus.com/toyota-motor-north-america-reports-december-2019-year-end-sales/

    Ford already makes a special edition truck, the Raptor, at 20,000 vehicles per year. The extra cost is about $20K MSRP per truck over an XLT 4×4 crew cab (but $30K cash since not discounted much).

    Ford needs a LOT of people to buy the hybrid F-150 before they release the total electric F-150 using the Rivian powertrain. They need to get the Wall Street guys off their backs for a while as they move in that direction. And their CAFE ain’t looking so good either. So, the hybrid F-150 needs to be cheap, good, and reliable. And 30 mpg city and highway. Just my thoughts.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-25/rivian-ceo-says-electric-truck-startup-to-make-ford-platform

  50. From an article on the death rates of COVID-19.

    This is where the Diamond Princess data provides important insight. Of the 3,711 people on board, at least 705 have tested positive for the virus (which, considering the confines, conditions, and how contagious this virus appears to be, is surprisingly low). Of those, more than half are asymptomatic, while very few asymptomatic people were detected in China. This alone suggests a halving of the virus’s true fatality rate.

    On the Diamond Princess, six deaths have occurred among the passengers, constituting a case fatality rate of 0.85 percent. Unlike the data from China and elsewhere, where sorting out why a patient died is extremely difficult, we can assume that these are excess fatalities—they wouldn’t have occurred but for SARS-CoV-2. The most important insight is that all six fatalities occurred in patients who are more than 70 years old. Not a single Diamond Princess patient under age 70 has died. If the numbers from reports out of China had held, the expected number of deaths in those under 70 should have been around four.

  51. On the Diamond Princess, six deaths have occurred among the passengers, constituting a case fatality rate of 0.85 percent. Unlike the data from China and elsewhere, where sorting out why a patient died is extremely difficult, we can assume that these are excess fatalities—they wouldn’t have occurred but for SARS-CoV-2. The most important insight is that all six fatalities occurred in patients who are more than 70 years old. Not a single Diamond Princess patient under age 70 has died.

    You can’t take those numbers to the bank yet. Still 488 cases not resolved, 36 are critical.

    Being over 70 myself, I don’t find those numbers at all reassuring. There are about 33 million Americans 70 and over. There were about 3700 passengers and crew aboard the Diamond Princess. 705 cases diagnosed yield an infection rate of about 19%. 19% of 33 million geezers equals about 6.3 million. Current CFR on DP is 6/705=.85%, all over 70.

    .85% of 6.3 million geezers equals about 53,500 croaked oldsters. Total deaths this year from flu in US? About 18 thousand of all ages (low end).

    Not something to feel real good about. And as I say, the numbers aren’t all in yet.

  52. “Not something to feel real good about. And as I say, the numbers aren’t all in yet.”

    — yeah, I’m seeing a lot of “it only affects the old and infirm so nothing to worry about….”

    That’s all kinds of offensive.

    Bigger picture, think about what that will do to the housing market. Think you have equity in your house? Looking to sell out and use the cash for retirement? Good luck if housing prices tank because a couple million homes come on the market all at once, or even 10s of thousands in the wrong areas.

    n

  53. “First case of ‘presumptive positive’ coronavirus confirmed in Fort Bend County”
    https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2020/03/04/reports-first-case-of-presumptive-positive-case-of-coronavirus-in-fort-bend-county/

    “HOUSTON – Fort Bend County Health and Human Services has confirmed the “first presumptive positive case of COVID-19,” according to a press release from the department.”

    “The patient is a man in his 70s who recently traveled abroad and is currently hospitalized in stable condition, officials wrote. ”

    Oh crap, it’s here.

  54. Not a community spread yet. I called that as my trigger for self isolating. I’m getting all kinds of pushback from my wife now that it’s getting real.

    other news, someone asked about packages, Ed?

    CORONAVIRUS CAN SURVIVE ON SURFACES FOR UP TO 1 DAY: CDC’S REDD

    I’ll look for a link to the article.

    n

    nothing new, 5 day old article I’ve linked previously

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-surfaces-explainer/explainer-how-long-can-coronavirus-survive-on-surfaces-idUSKCN20M3BK

  55. “Fauci Warns Outbreak Could Overwhelm US Health-Care System”

    –um, ya think? See also Aesop…

    n

  56. “Wednesday Sunshine: Brace For Impact” (Aesop)
    http://raconteurreport.blogspot.com/2020/03/wednesday-sunshine.html

    “And three major hospitals in OC put up Kung Flu screening tents outside their hospitals yesterday. We’ll hopefully be #4 or #5 in the county, depending on how long it takes TPTB some places to break suction and pull their heads out.”

    Oh my goodness ! The eloquence of that trailing sentence is simply amazing.

  57. Bigger picture, think about what that will do to the housing market. Think you have equity in your house? Looking to sell out and use the cash for retirement? Good luck if housing prices tank because a couple million homes come on the market all at once, or even 10s of thousands in the wrong areas.

    I am putting my old house on the market next week. Hopefully somebody moving here from … China … with a ton of cash will buy it. If I cannot sell it for the price I need, I will convert it to a rent house which I do not want to do.

    Our area just had half of the homes on the market sell all of a sudden. And nothing new is coming on the market because the prices are too low. $100/ft2 for two stories, $120/ft2 for one stories. I am wanting to list mine for $136/ft2. And there is not a single house in the neighborhood for sale so I will be setting the price point. All I need is one buyer.

  58. Good luck Lynn.

    I’m headed for an early bed. I don’t want to get run down.

    n

  59. Well, Australia has recorded a second death from COVID-19. This was a 95 yo woman in a nursing home in Sydney. The question is of course, how did she get infected. Investigations are ongoing.
    This brings the total of infected to 52 with 29 recovered and 2 deaths.

    Closer to home our state has a third person test positive.
    The woman in her 30s returned a positive result after holidaying in Iceland and the UK, and returning to WA via Dubai.
    “Via Dubai” is the worrying part. Any mass transit hub is going to be a potential problem.

    With this in mind, the government is under pressure to cancel the Formula 1 race event in Melbourne. This of course will cause an influx of overseas fans who follow the race from country to country. Plus of course all the support crew for the various teams. However the the Government is reluctant as the race event is only a week away and various organizations need it to go ahead. ($$$) 😉

    Also in the news, is stores running out of TP, hand sanitizer, flour, etc etc , same as what’s been reported here. Proves that Aussies can panic just as well as everyone else. 🙂

    Anyway its a pleasant 32 C (90F) at 3.00pm in the land of sand.

    Also, good luck Mr. Lynn..

  60. My grandmother used to make haluski a combination of bacon grease, onions, egg noodles, and cabbage. Very filling and a favorite when I was growing up in the 50s and 60s:

  61. Just watched on Sky UK a Parliamentary Committee querying the Chief Medical Officer for the UK. The questioning was forensic and the responses considered and balanced. Transmission of Covid-19 mainly air borne but hand transfer also (wash your hands). Death rate believed to be 1% maximum, but likely less, with young less and over 80’s around 8%. Good explanation of how the UK Health Service is hoping to cope with the resultant numbers – trying to elongate the active period so that the maximum peak does not overwhelm the system.

  62. “trying to elongate the active period so that the maximum peak does not overwhelm the system. ”

    –That was the gist of the WHO’s plan too. Delay the inevitable to get it out of flu season.

    n

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