Sun. Feb. 9, 2020 – WuFlu has already killed more people than SARS

Cool, damp, windy

Yesterday was beautiful. Blue sky, sunny, and a strong breeze. Nice temps after morning lows too.

I did my hobby, watched child #2 play basketball, and got some errands run. Getting project materials from HD and Lowe’s was a step toward getting several projects completed or underway. I posted yesterday that there were no N95 masks left. No evidence that they were missing either, so I don’t think they’re keeping the shelves open for the restocking. CDC is worried about running out of masks, and WHO has only a month’s supply left according to an article.

China is forcibly removing people from their homes to take them to places where they can be isolated with a thousand other sick people. And live or die on their own merits. Anyone think getting all those sick people together in one place might have some bad unintended consequences? In light of that news, and the video of people being locked into their homes, anyone think this is just a bad flu that isn’t anything to worry about? It’s in the population in china and that’s what’s driving the increases. SO FAR, we don’t think it’s loose in OUR population, but if it gets loose, we’ll see the same things China is seeing. Anyone here think their employer can survive a month with no employees? Start making plans for how to keep your business going if a Wuhan style lockdown happens here… CDC’s site has a whole section on pandemic flu that I’ve referred to before, and I recommend reading again.

Start making plans for keeping yourself and your family going if that happens too. Act soon. If you wait for confirmation, you’ll be too late. I’m treating it like a Cat 5 hurricane is headed for the Gulf. Next step will be if it crosses into the Gulf, then if it’s heading right for us…. Only instead of bugging out, we’ll likely lock down. I really don’t want to be inside the ring road that would be an excellent natural demarc point if martial law or a quarantine were enforced. No other options at this point though, that wouldn’t be irrevocable and life changing.

We’ve got some time before it’s out in our population, and maybe it won’t break out here. That would be best. But China’s economy is already going to take a huge hit, and the hit just gets bigger every day this continues. THAT is going to have knock on effects all on its own. If anyone wants to see ‘irrational exuberance’ look at a market that goes UP when half a billion people are under movement restrictions, and possibly several million will be sick before this burns out. UP! Look at what happened so far in China in JUST ONE MONTH. More people have been killed by this in 29 days than from SARS in a year, and that’s using the official numbers! No matter what happens going forward, big changes are coming. And I don’t see anything to keep what’s happening now from continuing for some time.

Get prepped people. Seriously.

nick

30 thoughts on “Sun. Feb. 9, 2020 – WuFlu has already killed more people than SARS”

  1. China is forcibly removing people from their homes to take them to places where they can be isolated with a thousand other sick people. And live or die on their own merits. Anyone think getting all those sick people together in one place might have some bad unintended consequences?

    Throw treatments against the wall and see what sticks. If I had to guess, they’re working on harvesting antibodies from survivors.

    They aren’t “PC” in China. It is still a Communist country.

  2. “Here’s another stupid thing: Democrats talking about free college tuition or debt forgiveness. I’m not here to debate the idea. What I can tell you is that people all over this country worked their way through school, sent their kids to school, paid off student loans. They don’t want to hear this shit. And you saw Warren confronted by an angry voter over this. It’s just not a winning message.”

    https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/2/7/21123518/trump-2020-election-democratic-party-james-carville

    Serpent Head helped create this monster starting 30 years ago. Now he’s unhappy.

    Don’t stop thinkin’ about tomorrow, James. Its the economy, stupid.

    He does have a point. Our household paid $300,000 in student loan payments over the last 20 years. It has put a sizeable crimp in our long term finances since my wife is too trusting/naive to really make money in medicine. If snowflakes start getting checks to cover their fancy lad school “experiences”, what do we have to lose supporting someone who would say we should see some kind of refund as well?

    (Yes, I know better, but that discussion is going to happen in a lot of households as my generation faces pretty bleak retirements.)

    Maybe I’d like a regular morning avocado toast too. Or $10 breakfast tacos on my way into the office from my hipster pad in the flood plain south of downtown — no worries since the Feds will pay for my rebuilding.

    It is a slippery slope.

  3. At least four American evacuees from China who arrived Wednesday at Marine Corps Air Station Miramar in San Diego were hospitalized after showing signs of coronavirus, the pneumonia-like illness that began in the Chinese city of Wuhan and has since sickened more than 28,000 worldwide.

    Of the 167 evacuees who arrived at the military base, three adults and one child were taken to local hospitals with a fever or a cough, according to a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) media advisory. Two of the patients were taken to UC San Diego Health hospital (UCSD) while one adult and the child were transported to Rady Children’s Hospital.”

    –remember that the ebola nurses got infected despite the CDC level PPE controls. Remember that the CDC dodged the question of whether caregivers at the quarantine sites could leave and go home.

    n –added

    –keep in mind- “All evacuees were screened in Wuhan for symptoms of the virus” only 10-18 hours earlier…

    — listen for the message– “Dr. Francesca Torriani, medical director of infection prevention and clinical epidemiology at UCSD, told the San Diego Tribune the patients would be isolated in a “negative pressure” room that prevents the inside air from escaping. Anyone who enters the room will wear protective gear such as gloves, face masks or goggles and N95 respirators. She said protocol was similar to caring for a patient with the flu.

    –get it? It’s just like the flu, other than the extra precautions and the quarantine….

    n

  4. –remember that the ebola nurses got infected despite the CDC level PPE controls. Remember that the CDC dodged the question of whether caregivers at the quarantine sites could leave and go home.

    I know nurses at Kaiser on the West Coast are unionized. I’m sure a lot of the hospitals are as well. Good luck telling rank-and-file that they can’t go home at the end of a shift. CDC knows this.

    I assume the evacuees landed at JB Lackland this weekend. It seems like a lid went on that story after Friday night.


  5. holy sh!t, watch the video in this guys twitter

    I love the constant phone filming. And gratuitous shot in the air.

  6. ” It seems like a lid went on that story after Friday night. ”

    –I expect that one of the indicators for the situation getting dramatically worse will be a sudden drop of in specificity of the official announcements.

    We’ll go from ” XYZ were taken to [specific place] for [very specific treatment/tests/etc]” to “some folks are being treated somewhere” messaging.

    That was the pattern as ebola threatened to get out.

    n


  7. Serpent Head helped create this monster starting 30 years ago. Now he’s unhappy.

    Oh, yeah. He is the dirtiest of the dirty. Even after yesterday’s screed from him, how many Dumbo’s are telling him to shut up? Maybe he has the Klinton’s hitman on speed dial.

  8. “Serpent Head helped create this monster starting 30 years ago. Now he’s unhappy.”

    Oh, yeah. He is the dirtiest of the dirty. Even after yesterday’s screed from him, how many Dumbo’s are telling him to shut up? Maybe he has the Klinton’s hitman on speed dial.

    No one pays much attention to Carville anymore. He married a Republican, lives in flyover country, and teaches at LSU.

  9. Like the aggregator allafrica.com during ebola, these guys are the source link for a lot of the more “journalistic’ stories out of HK and china

    https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong

    Current articles–

    Nine in family confirmed with coronavirus after Hong Kong hotpot dinner

    Health authorities in Hong Kong warn of ‘major difficulties’ in tracing possible virus carriers because some might only show mild flu-like symptoms at an early stage.
    22 minutes ago

    Police confiscate mahjong tiles as they enforce the order that people refrain from playing. Photo: WeiboPolice confiscate mahjong tiles as they enforce the order that people refrain from playing.

    People continued to gather to play mahjong despite orders aimed at preventing spread of the virus, while police have acted to stop rumours about the outbreak.
    2 hours ago

    Coronavirus outbreak
    As quarantine numbers grow, government asks for understanding, volunteers

    Three of our camps are getting full, and we might need more camps if the epidemic continues,’ the food and health secretary told a radio programme.
    2 hours ago

    New mask-making facility in Science Park to produce 100,000 a day

    8,000 sq ft space retrieved from tenant will be operated by a yet to be named third party.

    —nick—- the space was a “vertical farm” startup, so maybe the owner was glad to get out from under the boondoggle. also note ““We are already sourcing machineries and raw materials, hopefully the production lines will be ready in four or five weeks,” he said. “The masks will be given away for free to medical staff, the under privileged and the elderly.””

    —nick–what do you think the chances of getting a production facility in the middle of the city set up during a quarantine and epidemic outbreak are??? Bueller? What will the numbers look like in a month? The official numbers double ever week,that’s four doublings…..minimum….
    2 hours ago

    HSBC to provide US$3.9 billion in relief to businesses hit by coronavirus
    2 hours ago

    HSBC to provide US$3.9 billion in relief to businesses hit by coronavirus
    Coronavirus effect on economy could be more severe than Sars’
    2 hours ago

    Coronavirus effect on economy could be more severe than Sars’

    Why can’t we make masks a reserved commodity like rice?
    2 hours ago

    —there are a lot more fights, and fires on twitter. And a LOT of dead food animals due to supply chain interruptions.

    n

    n

  10. Nine in family confirmed with coronavirus after Hong Kong hotpot dinner

    Are they sure about the virus being the culprit behind the family getting sick? I’d be less concerned about the virus than I would the stinkpot -er- hotpot dinner.

    Yeah, I’m the Ugly American (TM), but whenever we brought less risky food to the in-laws’ hotpot events, I noticed the only people eating out of the pot were my wife, trying to be polite, and Number One “boss” cousin, who was hardcore about only eating true “Chinese”. My wife always got sick afterwards.

    After the last event, the coat I wore to the house smelled like the pot through multiple cleanings until I finally threw it away.

  11. I ate hot pot meals in shanghai, and from the communal lazy susan of noodles and rice, etc. I felt a lot better about eating from a steaming dish than anything not obviously thoroughly cooked….

    I got sick from brushing my teeth with tap water on my last night. I was sick for 3 weeks after my return…

    n

  12. Re: Roku — why not return for new one? Reset your password on their web site. Use the new password when the new device arrives.

    Re: site response time: seems much better this morning. I did a TRACERT yesterday during slow response, and one today with fast response. Those that sent me a tRACERT yesterday – can you send me one this morning (assuming site response time is good)?

  13. I ate hot pot meals in shanghai, and from the communal lazy susan of noodles and rice, etc. I felt a lot better about eating from a steaming dish than anything not obviously thoroughly cooked….

    With the in-laws, I always wondered if the temperature of the pot was sufficient. The “boss” cousin was very passive aggressive and didn’t like being questioned about anything, especially cooking. If I ate anything at events that wasn’t commercially prepared, it was either brought by us or by the Korean wife of another cousin.

  14. Reload isn’t blazing fast but is more than acceptable for me ATM.

    Microsoft Windows [Version 6.3.9600]
    (c) 2013 Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved.

    C:\Windows\System32>tracetrt ttgnet.com
    ‘tracetrt’ is not recognized as an internal or external command,
    operable program or batch file.

    C:\Windows\System32>tracert ttgnet.com

    Tracing route to ttgnet.com [64.111.126.127]
    over a maximum of 30 hops:

    1 <1 ms <1 ms <1 ms 192.168.1.254
    2 7 ms 5 ms 10 ms 172-14-48-1.lightspeed.hstntx.sbcglobal.net [172
    .14.48.1]
    3 * * * Request timed out.
    4 11 ms 7 ms 6 ms cr1.hs1tx.ip.att.net [12.122.103.46]
    5 14 ms 14 ms 7 ms 12.122.2.197
    6 10 ms 11 ms 7 ms gar25.dlstx.ip.att.net [12.122.85.233]
    7 8 ms 7 ms 7 ms 192.205.36.222
    8 8 ms 8 ms 7 ms be2764.ccr32.dfw01.atlas.cogentco.com [154.54.47
    .213]
    9 13 ms 14 ms 24 ms be2443.ccr42.iah01.atlas.cogentco.com [154.54.44
    .229]
    10 23 ms 23 ms 23 ms be2690.ccr42.atl01.atlas.cogentco.com [154.54.28
    .129]
    11 38 ms 38 ms 38 ms be2113.ccr42.dca01.atlas.cogentco.com [154.54.24
    .221]
    12 42 ms 40 ms 40 ms be3084.ccr41.iad02.atlas.cogentco.com [154.54.30
    .66]
    13 39 ms 39 ms 39 ms be3562.rcr51.b037327-0.iad02.atlas.cogentco.com
    [154.54.24.234]
    14 38 ms 38 ms 38 ms 38.122.62.254
    15 50 ms 38 ms 38 ms iad1-cr-2.sd.dreamhost.com [208.113.156.58]
    16 41 ms 49 ms 41 ms ip-208-113-156-49.dreamhost.com [208.113.156.49]

    17 38 ms 38 ms 38 ms apache2-quack.taliaferro.dreamhost.com [64.111.1
    26.127]

    Trace complete.

    C:\Windows\System32

  15. huh, that was weird, the last command prompt greater than caused the whole listing to be truncated.

    n

  16. I’m loading up the truck for a scrap run tomorrow. Global scrap prices will collapse further soon, if they haven’t already. China is our major buyer for scrap, and prices have been down due to the trade “war”. They’re not gonna go higher, and I’ve got stuff that needs to leave.

    n

    added– cases of n95 masks are selling in a local auction for $350/ case now.


  17. I got sick from brushing my teeth with tap water on my last night. I was sick for 3 weeks after my return…

    My last tour in Korea, upon arrival in Seoul, troops weren’t even allowed to shower in the Korean hotel. Bottled water was given us for the night. We had to wait until we arrived at a US base or camp. My first tour, towns were still pumping raw sewage into the local waterways.

  18. The tap water in Shanghai has a peculiar smell. Part organic, part chemical, plenty of warning NOT to drink it. I was careful to keep mouth and eyes closed when showering, and to pat my face dry first… but after an all nighter in the rush to the airport, habit moved me, and I rinsed the toothbrush and put it back in my mouth…. I was “evacuating” my bowels for the next 21 hours. 4 hour flight to Narita, 18 hours back to the US, too much imodium and sleep. Three weeks before my gut was normal.

    n

  19. Frank Burn’s lawyer is still spouting off about tRump and FB firing. This isn’t helping Burns one bit. Imagine his next assignment. I read he might be going to the Army War College. You only go there if you are going to make O6/Full Colonel. I hope he gets offered retirement instead of assignment to Fort Polk for eternity.

    And Plugs? The guy is off his rocker. He is never getting nomination with all his crazy. He is insulting people left and right, misquoting, and just fricken old.

  20. And Plugs? The guy is off his rocker. He is never getting nomination with all his crazy. He is insulting people left and right, misquoting, and just fricken old.

    The moment Plugs drops out of the race, the indictments start. He’s no longer a “political rival” to Trump at that point.

    Plugs didn’t actually announce his candidacy until a week after the infamous phone call.

  21. Re: Student Loans
    This family incurred zero debt for our two kids and one granddaughter.
    The boys worked their way through vocational schools and the granddaughter got scholarships and grants. We are happy with the results.

  22. Currently just a little bit north of Jackson Mississippi on our trip to Texas. Stopping for the night, planned a couple of days ago. Free night at the Hyatt. I pay $75.00 a year for their credit card and that gets me a free room. Cheap for a decent hotel. I no longer stay in places that have exterior entrances to rooms.
    Tomorrow we head south to Hammond LA, catch I-12 to I-10 and that really long bridge over the water along with the bump-bump-bump of the roads in Louisiana.

    Last trip to Texas I drove 16.5 hours in one sitting. Not doing that again. So planned a stop about halfway to our next stop, which is Orange Texas. Wife’s nephew lives there. From there we go to a place south of Houston for a visit with the wife’s niece. Stopping for the night. Then on to San Antonio.

    Will spend three days in San Antonio dealing with MIL issues. She wants to move into a senior adult facility. Been saying that for 10 years. Couple of things to do on her house, minor stuff. Her neighborhood is really going downhill. Ray Ellison (look up cheaply, poorly, built homes; his name will surface) home that has been there for 75 years. Most of the homes in the area are run down with little maintenance.

    No section 8 housing as those leaches demand, and get, better housing. Mostly hispanic, probably illegals in the mix, who want to turn the place into the shirt(-r)hole they left.

    Will also hit Lackland AFB to get set up for base access for the commissary and base exchange. Curious if the administration portion of the security police know that veterans with service connection disability are now allowed access. It was effective January 1, 2020. I have all the necessary papers, I think. DD-212, VA card, VA letters and a partridge in a pear tree. Want to take bets the powers to be will find I am missing a document?

    Haven’t seen anyone wearing any masks.


  23. I got sick from brushing my teeth with tap water on my last night. I was sick for 3 weeks after my return

    A few years back my brother visited Kathmandu in Nepal. They were warned that the local water was NOT SAFE and to not let it in your mouth or eyes when washing and ONLY use bottled water for brushing and drinking. They indicated the water was actually toxic.

  24. Yeah, I’d been warned, and had the bottle of water RIGHT THERE that I had been using. Tired and hurried = mistake. Now imagine what it must be like as a chinese Dr in a bunny suit for 12 hours a day….

    This article has some useful information.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7983311/Mapping-app-location-data-shows-virus-spread-China.html

    “The top 10 global destinations for travelers from high-risk Chinese cities around Lunar New Year, according to their analysis, were Thailand, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, the United States, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam and Australia.

    In Africa, Egypt, South Africa, Ethiopia, Mauritius, Morocco, Nigeria and Kenya topped the list.”

    –this matches pretty dang well with actual infection in the western world. In fact those cities are the top of the list of infections. The one thing they missed is that Germany has 14 cases, right between Australia and Vietnam.

    It also tells us where to look in Africa. Since they nailed it in the west, I’m betting on them nailing it in Africa too. In which case, Africa is F’d. Africa isn’t reporting any cases, because they haven’t had test kits. (South Africa reported two possibles.) They have had time for the community to become infected…

    n
    added- from the live map

    43 Singapore
    36 Hong Kong
    32 Thailand
    27 South Korea
    26 Japan
    18 Malaysia
    18 Taiwan
    15 Australia
    14 Germany
    14 Vietnam
    12 US

  25. “Virus goes Airborne !”

    I’m not sure that article says anything different from previous announcements that it is droplet borne. Unless the size of the droplets is different, and there is a technical definition that it now meets for being called “airborne” instead of spreading through the air as ‘droplet borne.’

    I hope it’s just a technical change in the description and not an actual change that means it’s even easier to catch.

    n

    CDC will have a briefing call on Monday. I’m sure someone will ask.

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