Fri. Feb. 7, 2020 – what a week

Cold, damp, windy.

Did some ebay listings, and shipping yesterday. Took the kids to the gun store to sell some GS cookies. Shout out to my favorite merchant of death for his support of our troop.

More ebay to do today, more listing and more shipping. Also more local auction stuff and remote tech support for my mom, and on top of that, flights for two upcoming family trips. No wonder I feel like I don’t have any time.

WRT the WuFlu- I don’t think it’s going anywhere folks, but everywhere. Time to review the CDC site on pandemic flu and think hard about what it would mean to you. Kids at home, no work (or no workers if you are a business), severely restricted travel and gathering. Shortages. Lots of unprepared people acting badly.

Safest is to not be there. Barring that though, low profile and stay in avoiding everyone possible is probably best. How long? Who knows? But you can bet it will be longer than 72 hours. Take a long look at the rows of beds in the arenas in china. Is that where you want to end up? Now consider being there with the people from down the street and around the corner… I’m pretty sure we don’t have anything like the chinese mobile plague hospitals, but we do have cots on the arena floor.

But don’t take my word for it. Wargame it out yourself. Best case, worst case, most likely case. Just be sure you can defend your assumptions for each with something more than “I don’t want to believe it could ever be like that.”

Keep in mind a possible 2008 style collapse of the financial system too, and any knock on from the collapsing trade with china.

It’s normal prepping for the apocalypse, but with the added urgency of seeing legit paths there, and not just hypotheticals. And a timeline. A short one, measured in weeks and months.

Keep stacking.

nick

34 thoughts on “Fri. Feb. 7, 2020 – what a week”


  1. Safest is to not be there. Barring that though, low profile and stay in avoiding everyone possible is probably best. How long? Who knows?

    This presents a real problem for people like my wife who depend on thrice weekly visits to a dialysis center simply to stay alive. If the center shuts down people die. Kidney disease is a death sentence.

  2. @harold,

    Can you look at in home dialysis? The areas around Boston are going to in home, because they can’t build centers fast enough. You are technical and responsible, which seem to be the main requirements.

    Other than that, masks and handwashing are all anyone has on offer.

    n


  3. “A Stunning 400 Million People Are On Lockdown In China As Guangzhou Joins Quarantine”

    Mark B. Spiegel @markbspiegel

    It’s been said by others but I’ll say it too:

    The way China is reporting almost an identical number of new coronavirus cases each day (approximately 3000) MUST be a reflection of its diagnosis capacity rather than the true caseload, which is likely much worse.

    6:10 PM – Feb 6, 2020

    –um, that’s more than our entire population, by 1/3…. doesn’t sound like something that is less dangerous than the normal flu, or something that is “under control”.

    n


  4. Can you look at in home dialysis?

    Yes, we looked at that first thing but my wife is one of the few who are unable to do it at home. The clinics push (REALLY push) home dialysis because they simply dont have enough chairs. I am not worried about getting the virus because of the small rural area we live in but I am worried that the clinic might be shuttered.

  5. This is bad. Guangzhou is a key manufacturing and shipping point in southern China.
    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/more-400-million-people-lockdown-guangzhou-joins-quarantine

    My brother spent a couple of months there a few years back. There’s a big Chinese naval academy there. He enjoyed the city and said it was very international.

    Update: here are the most exposed firms
    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/supply-chain-shock-heres-most-exposed-sp500-industries-china

  6. While china burns, the world turns.

    DEA has released their National Drug Threat Assessment for 2019. It details use and risks for illicit drugs in the US.

    It’s interesting reading if the subject catches your attention. I was looking for info on meth use, arguing that meth is still widely available and cheap despite the restrictions to my freedom in obtaining allergy drugs. I argue that those restrictions should be removed. The report says that almost all large scale production of meth has moved to mexico and cartels who use other methods and formulas due to their own version of restricting precursor chemicals. The precursors are coming in from China. This might be an unexpected knock on effect of the WuFlu as a reduction in chinese poison output could upset global and US illegal drug prices.

    (almost all domestic production of meth now uses “one pot” or “shake and bake” formulations that use other precursors than ephedrine and pseudo-ephedrine, and make less than 2 oz per batch.)

    Meth is still widely and easily available in the US with mexican cartels stepping up manufacture and import to replace lost US capacity.

    If the goal of the restrictions was to empower violent cartels, then it succeeded. If the intent (as stated) was to reduce availability of methamphetamine in the US, it has failed miserably, while infringing on the rights of citizens.

    n

  7. WHO is seemingly more concerned with offending people than controlling disease.

    “Dr. Mike Ryan, WHO’s top emergency expert, said: ‘I think the bigger point here is to ensure that some of the actions, some of the reactions internationally, it is the responsibility of us all to ensure there is no stigma associated with this disease.

    The unnecessary, unhelpful profiling of individuals based on ethnicity is utterly and completely unacceptable and it needs to stop. Governments have a responsibility to communicate with their populations on this,’ Ryan told the board.”

    Yep, can’t have profiling. Gotta have people get exposed so everyone is equal.

    n

  8. The plague ship cruise ship floating in the Japanese harbor has reported a big jump (20 to 60) cases of coronavirus. The passengers are essentially under lock-down in their staterooms and I’m sure no one is willingly going near a person coughing. This supports a long asymptomatic period where the person can infect others. I would like to know if the new cases are coming mostly from inner staterooms (no windows) where the only air they get is recirculated from other cabins.

  9. I am getting too old for all this nonsense (insert your favorite expletive for “nonsense”)

    Recently contacted the Postal Orriface about a “carrier/postal person”, (not our Regular Carrier she has been out for a while with a back strain) stuffing an oversized package into our community mailbox (I have video evidence). Now the front end that we, the “customer” opens is smaller than the backend that fully opens to expose all the individual mailboxes. So I am unable to remove the package. Every method I have tried to contact the Post Orriface has resulted in the same scripted reply: “Sorry, we do not accept customer complaints…”. No advice is given on what to do.

    Our Regular Carrier is tops. She is a 35-year veteran and I am sure she is going to retire soon. She gets really upset when the incompetents mess with “her people” and in fact was instrumental in getting our local Post Master removed, BUT, as to be expected the replacement is even more of an incompetent. Our Post Orriface is the third-largest distribution center in WA State.

    What is so hard to understand about the responsibilities of a job that is in the public service sector? Oh, that is not fair and discriminatory. Responsibility and common sense have been removed from our lexicon.

    Homer is fiddling and the frog is boiling. We need to save ourselves from ourselves. For those on their knees they have it all wrong, we are responsible for helping ourselves and our fellow (insert your favorite pronoun here). He/she/+ is watching and shaking his/her/+ head.

    Finally, I got a package from Japan via China Post yesterday, it took 15-days to get here. I put it under a UV light and have it in quarantine. Just kidding.

    Fair winds and following seas.


  10. If the intent (as stated) was to reduce availability of methamphetamine in the US, it has failed miserably, while infringing on the rights of citizens.

    Like every other aspect of the War on Some Drugs. The failure is so consistent, universal, and predictable that either those who propose continuation and expansion of the WoSD are too stupid to walk and breathe at the same time or the actual goal is not the stated goal.

    Despite evidence of the former, I’m pretty sure the latter is the case.

  11. Jackson is wonderful, no?

    The cities proper of Houston, Austin, and San Antonio are Prog playgrounds anymore.

    It is easy to blame the CA transplants, but, here in Austin at least, that demographic tends to buy houses in neighborhoods like mine where the schools are better. I also half-joke that they have secret desires for Republican Congresscritters and Mormon neighbors.

    The houses near the Mormon temple not far from me are the hottest real estate in the area. One house, located just 100 yards from the church, regularly flies the rainbow flag and had a couple of Robert Francis signs in the front yard during the last election season.

  12. We have plates in the new used kitchen. We do not have silverware. I scooped the wet dog food out of the container with my index finger into her bowl. She does not care.

    Got to bed at 430 am. The movers left at 1030pm having started at 830am. And they worked hard. We have too much precious stuff.

    The daughter woke us up at 6 am looking for her drugs. The wife, a very intelligent woman I married 38 years ago, packed all her drugs in a bag and hand carried it over so she got her fixed up. The wife and dog are back to sleep.

    I am contemplating a micky d’s run for bkfast biscuits.

    And the thermostats in the new used house are not working well. Huge temperature swings for heating. Gonna have to move one of them since they are located in the SAME zone.

  13. –um, that’s more than our entire population, by 1/3…. doesn’t sound like something that is less dangerous than the normal flu, or something that is “under control”.

    Either this stuff is horribly contagious or it is targeted against Asians as mentioned before. In either case, horrible to contemplate.

  14. Ah, settling into a new house, Mr. Lynn?

    On the Dumbocrat front, Dumbo’s getting dumber: Stretch Pelosi looking at more stuff to impeach tRump again. The Dumbo Party soon to be the Commie Party. Plugs is self destructing, now relying on his stutter affliction for sympathy. I can’t imagine Butt-a-geek being the DNC nominee. Cankles squawking about being VP on Ellen. Bloomberg over $300 million on ads. For what, he’ll never be the nominee. Haven’t heard from Steyer lately, did he drop out. And tRump talking about firing LTC Frank Burns. I would have him at Fort Polk 6 months ago.

  15. I would have him at Fort Polk 6 months ago.

    Fort Polk:

    It was named in honor of the Right Reverend Leonidas Polk, the first Episcopal Bishop of the Diocese of Louisiana, and a distinguished Confederate general in the American Civil War.

    OMG! A Confederate General!!! Wheah is my mah fainting couch? Someone bring me mah smelling salts!

  16. And tRump talking about firing LTC Frank Burns. I would have him at Fort Polk 6 months ago.

    No, charge him with conduct unbecoming for being a LYING whistleblower. He lied about the phone call that his commanding officer, the President made.

    Don’t send his lying butt to Afghanistan to command men like my son in battle. The fighting men and women of this nation deserve good officers, not some highly devorated paper pushing remf.

  17. Chatted with Dreamhost support today about site slowness. Sent them timings and such.

    1st level support thinks it is a network issue on their end, but couldn’t identify it. Suggested that I submit a ‘ticket’ so that the issue can be kicked upstairs to the next level of support. Have to gather some timing information via Developer tools (Network, select 1st request, then Timings tab).

    Perhaps others can email me their Timings info via that method…or post them here. I’ll gather everything together to send to them. Include your general location if you can. And the time of the capture.

    But it is not an issue with WP. Although still very intermittent…

  18. Rick, what would be most useful to the network support people: timing information only when the site is slow, at random times when we think of it, or on a fixed schedule?

    … And I was about to say that the performance wasn’t bad at the moment but then it took forever and a half to post that comment.

  19. “And tRump talking about firing LTC Frank Burns. I would have him at Fort Polk 6 months ago.”

    No, charge him with conduct unbecoming for being a LYING whistleblower. He lied about the phone call that his commanding officer, the President made.

    Frank Burns? I don’t recall Burns committing outright treason.

    More like Doug Neidermeyer. “Killed by his own troops in Vietnam.”

    Nobody watches “Animal House” anymore. I had to hold my nose to vote for McCain because every time I saw him, The Maverick had a look on his face like the freeze frame of the horse right before the animal keeled over dead in the Dean’s office.

    Go back and watch the film if you have a copy. You’ll see it.

    Of course I have the DVD. Sadly, I did not make the pilgrimage to Eugene or Cottage Grove (parade) to see the locations. Most of the places are intact, but the Animal House itself is long gone, burned down, according to legend, by the addicts who lived there when it became a halfway house after the film crews departed.

    Pretty appropriate.

  20. And tRump talking about firing LTC Frank Burns. I would have him at Fort Polk 6 months ago.

    Neidermeyer is no Ollie North. Or even Fawn Hall for that matter.

  21. Re: capturing network timings info.: probably this:

    – log the date/time of the capture
    – log your generalized location (city or region, state/country)
    – whether response is slow or normal
    – timings of the first request

    Captures of ‘slow’ and ‘normal’ with date/timestamps might be helpful.

  22. finally back in my seat in front of the computer.

    Scrambled around most of the afternoon, then sports practice with the little one.

    I see that the infected number is back on the slope of the chart. Funny how few people die or recover so far.

    “https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/hysterical-hong-kongers-hoard-food-water-supplies-authorities-expand-quarantine”

    –it’s not hoarding if it’s stuff you need. I hope no one here finds themselves in a similar position.. the time to stock up is BEFORE the need. That would be the next couple of weeks BTW.

    n

  23. Something bad is happening at National Instruments here in town. We always get so-so resumes from there, but we had an interview today in which the candidate was really impressive — 20 years at NI, UW CS diploma. Windows-centric, but we can cure that.

    My own interview the other day wasn’t thrilling. People do some wild things and it works for them on a small scale, but taking that leap to a more defined development process is tough.


  24. People do some wild things and it works for them on a small scale, but taking that leap to a more defined development process is tough.

    Guh. Tell me about it. And a lot of clueless managers (to a first approximation, all managers) are really impressed by the “pull together this cool-kid language and this cool-kid database” proof of concept and decide that’s the way to go and put the cool kid in charge of a team, and then when the thing doesn’t scale well or the cool-kid language’s deficiencies are revealed, it’s always someone else’s fault. Or when the cool kid’s approach of pulling a few all-nighters doesn’t work for a making a solid, production-ready system — and it’s when it doesn’t work, not if — it’s never the cool kid’s fault. He’s brilliant! It must be someone else not measuring up.

    More broadly, I’ve frequently been brought in on a job or contract because of my education and experience in putting in an organized, disciplined, methodical approach to software development. When this approach fails and the team or department reverts to chaos, which is more than half the time, the primary cause comes down to management: the boss or the salesmen or whoever give the requirements to the developers refuse to be constrained by any agreed-to schedule or procedure for giving the developers work. Every need is a one-time super-special priority which is more important than following procedures designed to let developers work efficiently, and within weeks or months at most everything’s right back to the way it was before I got there. And it’s never the boss’s fault, because he’s an oversized child who doesn’t take responsibility for anything.

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