Wed. Feb. 5, 2020 – same old, same old, plus WuFlu!

Cool and damp. [49F with a fine mist falling]

Yesterday stayed overcast but got up into the high 70s and 80s in some parts of town. I checked my local Ag extension planting guideline, and I should be getting my root crops in. I guess spring is coming.

School and activities continue. I’m taking the kids to sell GS cookies to my friend at the gun store. He’s a great supporter of the girls.

The political circus is starting to get into full swing. I’m going to avoid it as much as possible and concentrate on other things. I’m sure I won’t be able to avoid it completely. I would like it to be the only worry we have in six months, but I’m not sanguine about that.

The numbers out of china continue to rise. They may be false, but they are consistent. More video is making it out too. If you haven’t been following links to “man on the street” vids, you really should. The story that is implied by some of the vids really has to be seen to be appreciated. DailyMail is picking up some of the stories now too, if a couple of days late…

It’s an interesting question of how you get info during the apocalypse. For people in Wuhan, that word isn’t too strong. It’s their own societal and possibly personal SHTF. For some, it is literally TEOTWATKI. Lot more fistfight videos today than previously. I think the violence is about to break out as food is undoubtedly getting short. I’ve yet to see a story about brave truckers delivering food to the infected zone.

Keep in mind how fast this is all happening. For people in China, it must simultaneously feel like warp speed, and like an eternity.

Last week they were shopping and enjoying the holiday, today, they’re being barricaded into their homes.

Use the time we have to get your own shopping done. I have a feeling we won’t regret it this time. And Hey, in a month, if we’re not seeing any more cases outside of China, and our JIT economy based on selling each other cheap crap from China is still plugging along, you can mock me. I’ll be the one eating rice for every meal…. and wearing my face mask as a hat.

nick

Author: Nick Flandrey

Mid 50s, stay at home dad, with two elementary school age girls. Love my family and my life.

34 thoughts on “Wed. Feb. 5, 2020 – same old, same old, plus WuFlu!”


  1. “The camp sits in a watershed, on property the City of Austin’s watershed department says belongs to TXDOT.

    FOX 7 Austin spoke with TXDOT spokesperson Diann Hodges. Hodges explained that TXDOT did clean areas under overpasses for a time period. They turned that responsibility over the the City of Austin last summer. Then, in November Governor Greg Abbott instructed TXDOT to take back cleanups at 17 locations. She says those locations, are under overpasses primarily impacting pedestrians — the Anderson Lane site, is not one of the 17 sites. “Bottom line” Hodges said, “the city is responsible for encroachments on state roadways, and encampments are encroachments” She explained that TXDOT has “never performed cleanups in the watershed. That has always been the city’s responsibility.” “

    –this is an issue for our community too, as I mentioned some months ago. TXDOT says they can’t keep the homeless out of the bridges because “reasons”. The city cops say it’s TXDOT property and they don’t have authority. The state isn’t interested in what is UNDER the bridges. Homeowners just want the camps destroyed and the people rousted.

    while the big camps are mostly downtown in urban wastelands, most bridges have at least some sign of occupation and habitation, even in neighborhoods with million dollar homes.

    n

  2. After a bunch of days with normal responsiveness, today the site is slow to load again.

    just a data point.

    n

  3. https://www.zerohedge.com/health/did-chinas-tencent-accidentally-leak-true-terrifying-coronavirus-statistics

    –these sorts of numbers would justify the .gov actions. These sorts of numbers would match with the shortage of tests, despite huge number of tests being produced.[citation needed] These sorts of numbers would explain why there isn’t any food rioting going on, and where all the people are.

    Just throwing it out there…..

    n

    *I can’t find the article that had the number of tests being produced. There were lots of tests and the article was a bit puzzled by the lack of availability. Although, “You ain’t got no icecream” might account for some being diverted.

  4. This article from Jan 30–

    “During that gap [between sending tests to their CDC and distribution of test kits to hospitals], hospitals in the city reduced the number of people under medical observation from 739 to just 82, according to data compiled by Reuters from Wuhan health authorities, and no new cases were reported inside China.

    Despite the lack of reliable data and testing capacity in Wuhan, Chinese authorities assured citizens in the days after the virus had been identified that it was not widely transmissible. In previous weeks, it had censored negative online commentary about the situation, and arrested eight people it accused of being “rumor spreaders.” “

    –anyone think there was a 10 fold decrease in real cases during that time?

    n

  5. On Jan 24, this article

    “In a Thursday statement, the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission said a total of ten biosafety labs, “with the corresponding protection levels,” will be able to test nearly 2,000 samples every day when at full capacity.

    It is not clear when the labs will be up and running, but the report said the request for further assistance from “the relevant higher authorities” was made January 22.

    It added that the city plans to transport 30,000 kits to the labs but has only issued 6,000 of them so far. “

    –so you only get counted as an infected if you get a positive test, and as of Jan 24 there were only 6000 potential tests available, and few outside of Wuhan itself.

    The numbers are looking less believable with every article I find.

    n

  6. This article lists several manufacturers that have produced 50k, 100k, or more kits in the last week, yet they are in short supply. The 50k JUST TO WUHAN seem to have been used up, if they are short and hard to get. For that matter, how do you do 50K tests in five days? Five hospitals, 10k each. Five days, 2k per day. 20 hrs of work in a day, 1800 minutes. One test per minute, 20hrs a day = still falling behind.

    For example, Jiangsu Qitian Gene Technology Co. Ltd., together with the National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, has claimed to have developed test kits that can produce results in eight to 15 minutes.

    “The test kits come with an isothermal amplification instrument that can automatically interpret the results,” the firm said. It added that the test kits have a lower cost, and the sensitivity and specificity are both 100%.

    The biotech jumped on the call to develop more efficient test kits with experts from the institute Jan. 20. The test kits entered mass production nine days later.

    “We have already sent the first batch of our test kits to the Hubei province and will send more over later. We’re now waiting for marketing approval from the authorities, but it should come fast under the current green channel,” a staff person from Qitian told BioWorld.

    For its part, Shaanxi Lifegen Co. Ltd. has said its test kits could detect the coronavirus in an hour, while Shanghai ZJ claimed that its offering could do so in less than two hours with absolute accuracy.

    The shortage of test kits in China is delaying diagnoses, and some patients reportedly have died before they were diagnosed. As thousands have flocked to hospitals for testing, the authorities have declared developing more test kits to be a priority.

    Companies such as Qitian cancelled their Chinese New Year holidays, which usually last for two weeks, to get their act together quickly. They have been racing to develop more test kits for the coronavirus since the genetic sequence of the virus was published Jan. 10. Those who have developed tests now aim to scale up production and stabilize supplies to meet the demand.

    Geneodx, one of the first biotech firms that received approval for its test kits, said it planned to make products for 120,000 people and has sent them all over the country, including to Hong Kong and Macau.

    Meanwhile, Huada said it will send the first batch of test kits for about 100,000 patients to areas that are hardest hit. It also will double its production in a timely manner and stock up materials to produce more. The company also is said to be working with health authorities and institutes in Brunei, Thailand, Nigeria and South Africa.

    Wuhan, a city in Hubei province, remains the epicenter of the outbreak. Local authorities said in a Jan. 29 media briefing that the city has stocked 50,000 test kits so far, and diagnosis is being performed much more quickly.

  7. Um, this is another cruise ship….

    More than 30 crew members on board a cruise ship in Hong Kong are showing symptoms of coronavirus, officials said today as all 3,600 people on board were left stranded in quarantine.

    The World Dream docked in Hong Kong after three former passengers were found to have had the virus.

    The ship was denied entry to the Taiwan port of Kaohsiung on Tuesday and is now being held in quarantine while everyone on board is tested.

  8. while the big camps are mostly downtown in urban wastelands, most bridges have at least some sign of occupation and habitation, even in neighborhoods with million dollar homes.

    Driving around the North Austin/Round Rock area, you know when you cross into City of Austin and/or Travis County.

  9. while the big camps are mostly downtown in urban wastelands, most bridges have at least some sign of occupation and habitation, even in neighborhoods with million dollar homes.

    Driving around the North Austin/Round Rock area, you know when you cross into City of Austin and/or Travis County.

    Yes, all of the homeless here are in the city of Houston. Sugar Land, Richmond, and Rosenberg do not allow homeless in our cities. The police will grab them and run them into Houston in their cruisers.

  10. After a bunch of days with normal responsiveness, today the site is slow to load again.

    just a data point.

    I suspect that the WordPress database is too large for a shared server. I have no idea how WordPress works and this is speculation on my part.

    This is why I have a dedicated server for my websites. Costs me $300/month though.

    Probably what needs to happen is that each of the webpages need to be converted into static HTML webpages and the database needs to be flushed down to the last 10 days. At any point, old webpages should locked after a certain point. Most websites do not allow comments after a certain period of time anyway.

  11. Again, Mitt Romney is a tool !

    Daddy issues.

    Murkowski has the same problem, but her grudge is against the conservative wing of the party. She voted against witnesses and will probably vote not guilty.

    I wonder what Little Marco picked up for Florida. Cornyn will get reelection help, and I have no doubt Cruz wants the Supreme Court after the payola seat (Ginsberg) is filled.

    Cruz would probably want Breyer’s chair for the symbolism. That’s the seat which authored the opinion in Roe (Blackmun), and will probably pop up as available in the next Presidential term.

    If I’m right, Cruz might be rolling the dice on his ambitions, but he’ll win philosophically as long as the Senate stays Republican in the face of a Trump defeat in November. Breyer’s chair will become a swing vote and no longer reliably liberal at a minimum.

  12. I listened to Schumer’s close whilst out on errands. Geez, why not just say “we didn’t get our way, so f*ck everybody.” Cocaine’s rebuttal was perfect. Simple, we have spoken, stop calling names. This whole farce was down partisan lines. That should tell everyone this was a political stunt. Just because the Dumbo’s didn’t get Cankles.

  13. I see Drudge doesn’t have his “Blue Light Special” up as tRump is found not guilty. Never tRumper.

    The video of Stretch Pelosi *pre-ripping* her copy of the SOTU speech is just yummy. Phony f*cking baloney. Term limits, please.

  14. I see Drudge doesn’t have his “Blue Light Special” up as tRump is found not guilty. Never tRumper.

    The video of Stretch Pelosi *pre-ripping* her copy of the SOTU speech is just yummy. Phony f*cking baloney. Term limits, please.

    From what I understand, Drudge is working on a deal with a news channel. Even if that wasn’t the case, the legend was that Andrew Breitbart actually did the editorial duties on the site until he died, hence the change in tone over the past few years.

    I only heard bits and pieces, but, earlier today, subbing for Rush, I believe Mark Steyn was arguing that Stretch committed a crime ripping the document since the paper copy is the official transmittal as required by the Constitution, not the in-person speech.

  15. We got about 5 inches of snow between 6 and 9 am then it slowed down. I had to get the wife to dialysis today, 35 miles away, by 10am , so we left early. I took the old suburban. We were crawling at 25 – 30 mph because of the heavy snow and got about 12 miles before we got stuck on a hill. Got about halfway up and lost traction. Couldn’t go up or down and trying to do both got us crossways on the road. I called 911 who contacted the nearest VFD. We were stuck there for about an hour and saw only one other car, a Mini, that just motored on past us. Finally the two pickups from the Cromwell VFD arrived and pulled us up, turned us around, and we went home. We rescheduled dialysis for Thursday. Trying out our gas fireplace now while we watch the snow resume. It’s our first use of the fireplace since we bought the house. The fireman pointed out that our suburban had street tires and we needed mud and snow tyres. Never needed those in Memphis. Tomorrow I am taking the Hyundai because its front wheel drive. Fingers crossed.

  16. [snip] I believe Mark Steyn was arguing that Stretch committed a crime ripping the document since the paper copy is the official transmittal as required by the Constitution, not the in-person speech. [snip]

    Steyn must be reading a different Constitution than I am. Section II, Article 3 makes no mention of how he shall “give to the Congress Information of the State of ht Union, and recommend to their Consideration such Measures as he shall judge necessary and expedient” .

  17. We got about 5 inches of snow between 6 and 9 am then it slowed down. I had to get the wife to dialysis today, 35 miles away, by 10am , so we left early. I took the old suburban. We were crawling at 25 – 30 mph because of the heavy snow and got about 12 miles before we got stuck on a hill. Got about halfway up and lost traction.

    I take that the old suburban is not 4×4 ? Hopefully the front wheel drive will do better.

    This is why I got 4×4 on my 2019 F-150. I am coming your way in three weeks to Norman. 500 miles of awesome overcrowded roads in TX leading into OK that can easily have ice and snow coatings on them anytime in Feb and Mar.

  18. I don’t think that any slowness issues on this site are due to the WP database size. There are tons of WP sites that run humongous databases without problems. Granted, they are probably on more powerful servers.

    But, since the slowness is very intermittant – when things are working OK, the response time is normal. If there was a WP database size problem, then the slowness would be all of the time.

    As for comments – yes, there are a lot here (which is why I’m here a lot). And comments are closed after xx days.

    But, slowness here is not a WP or database problem. And converting to static HTML pages is not an effort I want to do – ever. I have tried adding caching, but that is not efficient for this site, since comments are continuous here – requiring rebuilding the cache on just about every visit. In fact, I’ve noticed that caching appears to slow things down.

    The issue is the load on the server – from the other sites that share this place. Someone is getting hammered by visitors, and that is affecting the response time here. All I can do is complain to tthe Dreamhost guys. And it would be a big increase in monthly expense to upgrade to a dedicated server. Don’t think that Barbara wants to pay for that.

  19. Lynn – We bought the 2004 suburban because it had 3 rows of seats, a built in DVD player and we could pay cash. In Memphis we had no need for 4WD for the last 5 years. Need to keep it because it’s big enough to move ATMs around. We just paid off the 2017 Hyundai so we are debt free and want to stay that way. Maybe I’ll get some aggressive mud&snow tires (or tyres if you speak real English).

  20. And it would be a big increase in monthly expense to upgrade to a dedicated server. Don’t think that Barbara wants to pay for that.

    Oh no, I was not suggesting that at all. That was my solution to being on a shared server where I was the party actually using all the cycles. My main website has been attacked several times by the Iranians. Only by moving to a dedicated server was my site able to take the one million web pages per minute attack that they used the last time. They have a large botnet around the world that they use, otherwise my host would simply block the entire Iran IP address range at the border routers.

  21. Well, the CDC call is interesting.

    Transcript, audio recording

    “But despite the years of planning, we need to remain humble and understand that we may not have planned for everything. We expect to see additional cases of Novel Coronavirus in the United States among returning travelers as well as their close contacts. ”

    “This is the beginning of what could be a long response. Right now we’re aggressively intervening to contain introduction into the United States. If community spread in the US is established, we’ll implement broader measures to mitigate the impact of the virus on our communities.”

    “We’re working with health care and industry partners to understand the supply chain for personal protective equipment.”

    “we want to make sure that when those personal protective equipment, masks and especially masks but also gowns and gloves are being used, they are being used appropriately to keep our staff and health care workers safe, but not excessively. Because we may need to be preserving them for later when the risk is higher. ”

    –things might get bad, and we don’t have enough stuff if they do

    “And I would say that that is something that we’re actively working on and part of what we need to sort out is our expectations for how long this will last. ”

    “as we’re learning more about the situation in china, about how transmission is happening, how it is being spread, it will help us to better do those projections in the united states which again is something that we’re actively working on.”

    “SAN JOSE MERCURY NEWS: what kind of protections or restrictions or being imposed on the people caring for them, like can they leave and go home?”

    –she didn’t answer the question, instead talking about the patients.

    “So I don’t think that we can say fully whether the 2%, which is where — it is 2% that has been relatively stable of the patients being reported out of china who have died, but whether that actually is a real case fatality ratio or not, I just don’t think that we have the information right now to say. But I would say again that what we know is that this disease can be deadly. There have been two deaths outside of china and we’re definitely watching our u.s. patients carefully because of course we know that death is possible with this severe disease.”

    —she started the call by reiterating that the US still only had 11 cases, but I see now, only hours later, we’re up to twelve….

    —at least the test kits are approved and being sent out to labs. 200 kits for the US and 200 going overseas, each capable of 700 tests. That’s a lot of testing capability…

    –so, CDC still doesn’t know transmission or fatality rates. They don’t trust the numbers out of China. They expect more cases here. They have tests, but you can pass the test and still develop the disease. We’ve got more people coming in, and they will be quarantined for exactly 14 days and then let go.

    –WTH do we have a Rear Admiral as Chief Scientist at FDA? And what the hell do they have to do with ” working very closely with the CDC and other U.S. government partners reviewing data as its in real time and with a team working around the clock to ensure tests are available under emergency use authorization or eua.”

    –At least the head Dr didn’t sound so scared and nervous this time. I guess that’s something.

    n

  22. And, as Paul Harvey once said, wash your ears out with this:

    https://babylonbee.com/news/democratic-leaders-call-for-new-investigation-to-investigate-the-investigators-investigating-the-investigators

    WASHINGTON, D.C.—After House Republicans formally called for an investigation into the investigators investigating the Trump campaign, congressional Democrats quickly responded by calling for a new investigation into the investigators investigating the original investigators.

    The investigation will center around claims that the investigators assigned to investigate the investigators may show significant bias, with the new investigators investigating the investigation investigators attempting to determine if there has been any prejudice or corruption in the investigation investigation.

    “We now know who will investigate the investigators, but who will investigate the investigators investigating the investigators?” Senator Chuck Schumer said in a press conference. “We must hold the investigators investigating the investigation accountable if we are to retain our faith in the justice system.”

    At publishing time, Republican leadership had called for a fourth investigation to investigate the investigators who were tasked with investigating the investigators assigned to investigate the investigators.

    Reminds me of an old electronics lab observation: we need adapters to adapt the adapters to the adapters. I’m sure this principle applies to many fields.

  23. Wind is gusting out of the north and temps dropped to 42F .

    Northern TX is supposed to get snow. Crazy.

    n

    And now we’re getting a spattering of big raindrops.

  24. I just had a guy tell me on usenet that we could use batteries for peaking power all across the world since Tesla built a battery plant in Australia. Here is my response:

    “> Peak loading can easily be handled by battery storage. They’re already doing that in South Australia. Projects are underway to do it in southern California and New York City.”

    “Wow, that would be a battery the size of Texas to handle the peak loading across the world.”

    “BTW, the peak loading on a typical summer day in Texas is 40,000 MW (30,000 MW min to 70,000 MW max). Plus another 10,000+ MW for refineries and chemical plants who generate their own electricity around the clock. Got a battery that can handle 200,000+ MWh just for Texas ?”

    “The Tesla battery in Australia is 129 MWh. Gonna need 1,600 of them just for Texas alone. Plus 10X more wind and solar to feed the batteries (remember the batteries are not 100% efficient).”

    “Sheesh, save us from people who have no idea how energy is produced. ”


  25. Kirk Douglas, dead at 103, who knew he was still kicking around? I think of Micheal Douglas as “old”.

    Now there is a real American actor. It was sad in his last years to see how old age treats you. I wonder how cogent he was at 103.

  26. It’s hilarious watching the LibTurds praising Bishop Mittens. He voted Not Guilty on the second count. I guess that doesn’t count. He’ll be trashed in a couple of weeks.

  27. And acquitted on both counts, with Mittens showing his true colors once and for all. WTF is he angling for?

    VP if Trump is removed from office, either before the election or if the Dems keep the House into 2021.

    Mittens wants to be Gerald Ford.

  28. I am not as mad at Romney as others are. He made decisions and stands by them. I can admire them while I disagree with them.

    It’s the hacks that toe the party line no matter what that get my goat.

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