Mon. Mar. 9, 2020 – one rough week ahead

Cooler, and possibility of rain.

Yesterday stayed dry. I got a lot of work done in the driveway and garage. Can’t really tell, but I did. Put a load in the truck to take to local auction. I hope it brings something, but mainly I need it gone. Believing in impending doom focuses the mind dramatically on issues of “do I need that?”

Speaking of which, we’re still set to leave on vacation at the end of this week. I should be packing, sorting, and getting ready. Instead I’m filled with dread. Last hurrah or foolish risk? Normalcy bias is VERY HARD to fight.

One thing I know, regardless of any numbers or discussion about WHO gets it or why, when it shows up, it spreads. NOTHING is actually being done to prevent the spread and increase.

All I can hope for is that the decision is made elsewhere, either by Disney or the airlines, or .gov. It doesn’t get much clearer than Fauchi saying stay home and don’t travel. But that’s not enough, I guess. I’m pretty sure I know what Bob would advise. Stay home. Avoid crowds.

Keep stacking.

nick

Wisdom in one line…

“Just in case things get much worse, don’t overlook security for when the redistribution warriors decide to go midnight shopping. ” –DiveMedic

54 thoughts on “Mon. Mar. 9, 2020 – one rough week ahead”

  1. With stories like this, does anyone think this will be contained?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8090759/Missouri-school-closed-father-States-coronavirus-patient-broke-self-quarantine.html

    “Missouri school is closed after the father of the State’s first coronavirus patient broke self quarantine so he could attend a dance with his other daughter and her classmates

    Woman, in her 20s, has tested positive for coronavirus after returning from Italy
    Her family told to self-isolate after she began displaying symptoms on Thursday
    Father attended father-daughter dance held by other child’s school on Saturday
    Villa Duchesne and Oak Hill School closed to ‘seek advice’ from health officials”

    People are selfish. And ignorant. Avoid them.

    n

  2. With stories like this, does anyone think this will be contained?

    “Missouri school is closed after the father of the State’s first coronavirus patient broke self quarantine so he could attend a dance with his other daughter and her classmates”

    People think that the rules don’t apply to them. That is what will do us in with regard to this situation. Snowflakes.

    Unless you station a guard at the door, the typical American will break a quarantine just out of boredom.

    Unless management puts an airtight lid on the story, my wife should hear more today about the Col. Bat Guano situation at the Austin VA on Friday.


  3. the typical American will break a quarantine just out of boredom.

    I guess I am not typical. I could, and would, stay in my house, well the confines of the yard, for two weeks if asked.

  4. Yeah me too. In fact, I’m ready to do it voluntarily. Starting today. Although I have an appointment tomorrow to get a couple of prescriptions refilled and I’d like to keep that.

    I may be doing some auction stuff today. Hell, if I’m going to WDW, there’s no point in limiting my activities here.

    BTW, Paris Disneyland, one confirmed staffer asked to home quarantine.

    WDW, no further info about the 3 quarantined upon return from Italy, or any other suspect employees.

    Am I nuts or not? It seems to me that with all the people headed to FL and WDW in particular, that it’s almost impossible that there won’t be a case linked to WDW or flights to Orlando in the next 3 weeks.

    Who will watch my kids if the wife and I are in the hospital or sick at home? People are not thinking 2 and 3 weeks ahead. NOTHING anywhere suggests this won’t continue to spread and infect people. So the math seems pretty clear to me.

    Aesop spends more effort on the math and the aftermath in several posts. https://raconteurreport.blogspot.com/ see for yourself.

    n


  5. I guess I am not typical. I could, and would, stay in my house, well the confines of the yard, for two weeks if asked.

    I would have been self quarantined for years already if I didn’t have to go to work.


  6. Am I nuts or not? It seems to me that with all the people headed to FL and WDW in particular, that it’s almost impossible that there won’t be a case linked to WDW or flights to Orlando in the next 3 weeks.

    Who will watch my kids if the wife and I are in the hospital or sick at home?

    Why are you even contemplating going? You’ll be miserable and reflect that on the family. Just cancel now. No miracle is coming.

  7. Just cancel now. No miracle is coming.

    –yep, I’d do it if it was just me. This feels like a marriage inflection point. I put my foot down and my wife’s stubborn irrationality kicks in and there is a bad break.

    The effect on the marriage and kids is the only thing stopping me.

    FWIW I think she’ll come around. She’s not packing either.

    n

  8. stock market’s in trouble.

    Oil is in trouble.

    TX will be in trouble.

    n

    Nuts that the Saudis chose this moment to break loose from the world order. Things must be desperate in the kingdom.


  9. Just in case things get much worse, don’t overlook security for when the redistribution warriors decide to go midnight shopping.

    They will come in broad daylight, backed with the full force of law. FIFY.

  10. Nuts that the Saudis chose this moment to break loose from the world order. Things must be desperate in the kingdom.

    The Russians wouldn’t agree to production cuts according to a story I saw.

  11. I have a trip to the Boston area at the end of May for a wedding. I ahven’t bought plane tickets yet, and am holding off for a while… I do have hotel room reserved, but I did that months ago and I can cancel up to 24 hours before the reservation date. As of now, that trip looks like it won’t happen. I’m not overly paranoid, but one of the worst places to be during a pandemic is a plane. Actually, make that anytime.

    My wife is planning to go to Europe in August. We haven’t officially nixed those plans, but it’s getting close. Once again, flying is the big concern. Also of concern, though, is being in Europe and being quarantined. I’m sure she would be treated well…

    Only other travel we have planned right now is a Braves game in August. If public gatherings aren’t banned, and things don’t look bad, we’ll probably go, but it’s too early to tell. I have already bought the tickets.

  12. We’ve got a wedding on an island nation in the Carribean scheduled for July… and that should be during either the peak of this or just after. Either way, I don’t think that’s happening.

    n

  13. “The Russians wouldn’t agree to production cuts according to a story I saw. ”

    –yes but, the saudis are the ones cutting prices and increasing supply

    –and the russians didn’t arrest their political rivals in the kingdom

    n

  14. I just sent out an email to our family group about the trip. I made my case (and spent far too long on it, when I’ve got stuff to do). We’ll see what they decide.

    n

  15. –yes but, the saudis are the ones cutting prices and increasing supply

    The Saudi leadership doesn’t wipe their butts without the permission of Washington.

  16. Wall Street’s next round of cheap money is late so they’re throwing a tantrum.

    Things are quiet now since everyone headed out for “lunch” — strippers, steaks and/or TeamViewer sessions with the dominatrix. If anything more happens, the end of the day will be interesting.

    I have a few Limit Orders in, but I doubt they will pop.

  17. Posted to our http://www.nextdoor.com:

    “COVID-19 Update 3/9/2020”

    “Fort Bend County Health & Human Services has announced 3 additional travel-related cases of COVID-19. One traveler was not part of the group involved in the other Houston-area cases but was on the same cruise in Egypt at a later date. This brings the overall total to six in Fort Bend County.”

    “Fort Bend County Health & Human Services, Houston Health Department, and Harris County Public Health ask any local residents who recently traveled to Egypt and took a Nile River cruise on the M.S. A’sara to immediately self-quarantine for 14 days and contact their local health department.”

    All six are in their 60s and 70s.
    https://www.fbchealth.org/ncov/

  18. Nuts that the Saudis chose this moment to break loose from the world order. Things must be desperate in the kingdom.

    The Kingdom of Saud has been unstable for a long time. The population growth beyond sustainability, the 10,000 royal family members, the price of oil below $100/bbl, the proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
    https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/saudi-arabia-population/

    If you do not have a job in Saudi Arabia then you do not have a wife. If you have a good job, you have four wives. And there are not many good jobs in Saudi Arabia. Not many jobs at all.

    The crown prince, 33 years old, has been trying to fix this. Rush was talking about the fact that he imprisoned, house arrested, his mother for corruption over the winter.

  19. Unless an outside force intercedes, it looks like I’m going to Disney. Fuck.

    n

  20. And all the counter arguments come down to money or the situation as it is right this minute. No one is thinking about 2 weeks from now. “No cases in Orlando, only 11 in FL”

    Almost 3 million people will travel to Orlando for spring break.

    Cases in the US are doubling ever 2 days! Worldwide, ex-china, every 4.

    At 4 doublings US cases will be at 5600 when we check in and 3 more before we’re home, for 48K. Middle case, doubling every 4 days, we’re still at 5600 when we get home.

    Humans are really not built for exponential increases.

    n

  21. The vast majority of humans* are incapable of understanding mathematics beyond counting numbers up to about five.

    * Bipeds who look something like us but whom I will not accept as being of the same species without proof


  22. Only other travel we have planned right now is a Braves game in August

    I would not worry about that trip. From my sources I have been told that nothing can be caught in the Braves stadium.

  23. Redid the math.

    Almost 3 million people will be in Orlando over spring break. They will bring whatever with them from wherever they live. Guarantee that at least one of them will be sick but decide they spent too much money to cancel….

    Cases in US by the time we get home (13 days from today), assuming different doubling rates

    World ex-china every 4 days
    600, 1200, 2400, 4800, +

    US recent rate, every 2 days
    600, 1200, 2400, 4800, 9600, 19200, 38400, +

    US initial rate every 3 days
    600, 1200, 2400, 4800, 9600, 19200

    At what point do you think they WILL put travel restrictions in place? Because travel restrictions and quarantine are the only things that change the curve and delay growth.

    When things change, they will change very quickly. We’ve already been warned, that’s what the interviews with guys like Fauci are about. That’s why the CDC has press conferences warning about implementing “Non-pharmaceutical Interventions” and making plans for childcare when the schools are closed, and why mayors talk about not doing things unless conditions get worse. They will get worse. There is no magic solution. When they get worse, the only tools they have available are travel restrictions and quarantine, and “social distancing”.

    FWIW, if the doubling is evenly distributed, and Florida starts from 6, just knock off the two zeros to see where they’ll be with cases.

    Two weeks from now, barring a miracle, there will be between 4800 and 39000 cases in the US. That’s a big range. Keep in mind that even at the lower world wide rate, we still get to 77K in a month (28 days, 7 doublings) and 4 more doublings gets us to 1.2 million. But hey, only 1 in 10 will get REALLY sick, and only 1 in 30 will die.

    They can do math too, and they WILL use the tools they have to slow the rate and keep it from getting that far.

    It’s the math that scares me and the reactions of the people in charge whose job it is to fight the math that worries me.

    n

  24. “WoodMac: ‘Brutal’ cost-cutting ahead if sub-$40/bbl becomes new normal”
    https://www.ogj.com/general-interest/economics-markets/article/14169377/woodmac-brutal-costcutting-ahead-if-sub40bbl-becomes-new-normal

    “As global markets reel in the wake of the oil price crash, the collapse “could be the trigger for a new phase of deep industry restructuring – one that rivals the changes seen in the late-1990s,” said Tom Ellacott, Wood Mackenzie.”

    It is 1986 all over again. There are 15 million people directly and indirectly employed by the oil and gas industry in the USA. Including yours truly who has already been hit in the cost cutting over the last several years.


  25. The vast majority of humans* are incapable of understanding mathematics beyond counting numbers up to about five.

    What is “five”?

  26. It’s the math that scares me and the reactions of the people in charge whose job it is to fight the math that worries me.

    You are flying, right ? I would be prepared to rent a car and drive back. Getting across the Alabama border might be difficult using I-10 though. You might have to go back roads.

  27. “It’s the math that scares me and the reactions of the people in charge whose job it is to fight the math that worries me.”

    You are flying, right ? I would be prepared to rent a car and drive back. Getting across the Alabama border might be difficult using I-10 though.

    You’re thinking that Alabama would close I-10? The bigger problem is that I75 will be a parking lot north of Wildwood, where the turnpike intersects.

    The FL panhandle is a long, agonzing haul between Tallahassee and Pensacola, and the drive is still sparsely populated. If you think it will be SHTF, plan on 200 miles between gas stations when selecting a rental. I don’t remember seeing places open late except near Crestview and Chipley when we drove to Orlando from Austin in a straight shot a few years ago. A Love’s was somewhere in there too.

    My wife won’t attempt that drive in a day again.

  28. Nick said they were good and froze well. That’s my story and I’m stickin’ to it.

    HEB “Just Eggs”. 99% Egg whites. Pasteurized. Less than 1% of…. beta carotene for color, flavorings, spices, salt, onion powder, guar and another thickening gum. Then a huge list of vitamins to replace what is contained in an egg yolk. Each quart carton is 20 eggs. Price compares to buying normal eggs.

    I wonder what happens to the yolks?

    Scrambled nicely. Tasted good. But the onion powder is a weird flavor. I had to read the ingredients.

    I think they would be handy when camping or cooking on the boat just for reducing trash.

  29. You are flying, right ? I would be prepared to rent a car and drive back. Getting across the Alabama border might be difficult using I-10 though.

    You’re thinking that Alabama would close I-10? The bigger problem is that I75 will be a parking lot north of Wildwood, where the turnpike intersects.

    I am thinking that he would have to drive the beach road along the Gulf. Or else go WAY north. Getting across Mobile Bay might be difficult if one stayed south.

    I just cannot imagine them closing I-10 going into Alabama.


  30. What is “five”?

    Assuming you’re not going all Principia Mathematica on us, it’s the number most people can count by touching the index finger of one hand to each finger in turn on the other hand. It’s also about the biggest number many so-called humans can grasp intuitively. They can manipulate (pun intended) larger numbers and decimals and such, but there’s good evidence that many so-called humans don’t fully comprehend integers much larger than that.

  31. I am thinking that he would have to drive the beach road along the Gulf. Or else go WAY north. Getting across Mobile Bay might be difficult if one stayed south.

    I-10/US-98 is the southernmost crossing except for a ferry departing from near Gulf Shores. Or, at least was when I was a kid.

    Regardless, I’m guessing that the Panhandle coastal roads and communities are still recovering from Hurricane Michael and not an option for through traffic. IIRC, one of the other regulars could better speak to the status of those.


  32. US-98

    Never heard of it. Then again, I didn’t drive when we lived in Mobile and Saraland.

    Mobile to Pensacola is a long way. The tunnel under Mobile Bay was the highlight. Mom had to go to the base in Pepsicola for some reason. No beach time but she drove by the beach.

  33. It’s almost Spring. The Live Oaks are turning gold and starting to shed leaves. The Red Oak out the bathroom door is budding.
    Various Elm trees are budding and some have small leaves. Other Elms look dead. Normal. I haven’t looked but maybe Elms come in male and female form.

    The Mesquite in the chicken pen has several clusters of green whiskers. The Mesquite by “where the wood pile was” is turning green, no whiskers of leaves yet.

    This place is going to be SO green in two weeks. 🙂

    Maybe the Post Oaks, Blackjacks, and Red Oaks will flower. Bluebonnets next. The wild plum, what is left of it, is flowering. The wild grapes are budding and with a few tiny leaves.

    Fun to watch.

  34. Yeah, I figure a rental car, SUV probably. It may be that my sibling is driving my mom and her car (PT cruizer) to Orlando. If so, Mom rides with me and the family. VERY tight but possible in extremis. I’m thinking about what I need in a GHB, and I’m def bringing my EDC, even if there are issues at Disney hotels. I’ll just have to make sure they never have my bag to xray it.

    I did the drive with my dad in two days, getting to Baton Rouge for the night. Small towns are NOT going to like strangers driving thru if there are travel restrictions. Small boats are going to be punching out like crazy, but I don’t have any connections to make that work.

    I-10 has a lot of choke points and would be a poor choice in an emergency, but it might be the only choice, without going much further north before heading west.

    People are really not set up to understand exponential growth. I had to drop off some auction stuff, and we’ve been chatting. I went thru the numbers with the office girls (no males at that office in any capacity) and they were stunned.

    n

  35. US 98 is repaired and open all the way across the panhandle. Some of the communities, Mexico Beach and Tyndall AFB in particular, will be a long time recovering. There are 24 hour gas stations at all the north – south intersections of I-10 from Tallahassee to Pensacola. SR-12, SR-71, US 231, SR-77, SR-79, US 331, SR-285, SR-85, you get the picture. East of Tally to I-75 is more sparsely populated, but there are still 24 hour options.


  36. It is 1986 all over again. There are 15 million people directly and indirectly employed

    Indeed. That was the start of the demise of my job at National Bancshares in San Antonio. At that time Texas could not have branch banks. Many of the banks under the holding company were in danger of becoming insolvent due to oil loans gone bad. Texas changed the law to allow branch banking about that time and all the banks in the holding company became branches of the main bank of the holding company.

    Shortly after IT was outsourced to M-Tech in Dallas. I lost my job at the bank but became employed by M-Tech. M-Tech had a master plan to convert the banks from Burroughs to IBM. It was doomed from the start unless every piece of equipment, teller machines, terminals, ATM controller, mainframe, software, reader-sorters, everything was converted.

    In January of 1988 I went looking for another job. Wound up in TN. Three months later the entire IT staff was terminated from M-Tech and the bank became insolvent and was taken over by the FDIC. People at the bank that had stock in the bank now had nothing.

  37. Mercantile National Bank of Dallas –>
    Momentum Bank –>
    MBank –>
    and the Yankees from BancOne took over.

    BankOne is gone. Chase? shrug.

    Frost is still going along. They bought First City the second time that gang failed.

  38. Unless an outside force intercedes, it looks like I’m going to Disney. Fuck.

    @Nick I guess you’ll be seeing a lot of Stacy Aswad next week. 🙂

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vAtjtDx8zV4

    I took my kids down to Gatorland the last time we hit Orlando. The place isn’t nearly as crowded as Disney. It started as a kind of joke in the family, but the park is actually fun.

    The staff knows *exactly* what they’re running, which is part of the appeal.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=geaBCV86gsw

  39. Another option if you want to avoid people but still see something interesting. Unfortunately, their operating hours have scaled way back in the last few years. West of Disney on I-4 in the heart of “Orlampa”.

    https://www.fantasyofflight.com

    My name for the metroplex is Fort Orlampamyers Beach.

  40. @greg, holy cow, I’ve learned about two new things already. Disney personal rides (lyft for the mousehouse) and the app ordering for counter service restaurants. Sweeet.

    That chick has a LOT of teeth though….

    n

  41. @nick
    You’re in a sucky position. Last thing a prudent person would do is travel to Disney. I appreciate weighing the family fallout (horrific) against plague fallout.

    Maybe sneak in a movie night before the trip. Watch “Reliant”

    It’s not plague, but it is a preppier whose family didn’t quite take him seriously. Good film.

  42. Six years I’ve been prepping to avoid getting sick during a pandemic. And I’m going to disney at spring break. Worse, if we don’t cancel and my sibs don’t cancel, my 80yo mom will insist on not canceling.

    “I’m not giving in to the panic. I’m not letting a disease change my life.” Yeah, brave. Except that the disease don’t care. You’re not “showing” it anything….

    You’re just being stubborn and risking our mother’s life. FFS.

    n

  43. @greg, the schedule is full. Fastpasses organized, dinner reservations made, park days decided. One type a global banker sibling with an AP and all the coordinating for 8+ people in several parties gets done.

    That’s part of the problem. Lot of sunk cost fallacy going on, mixed with denial, and a bit of “brother Nick is a crazy prepper, and he CAN’T be right about this, or I’d have to admit he might be right about other things….” as well as a helping of normalcy bias.

    n

  44. @greg, the schedule is full. Fastpasses organized, dinner reservations made, park days decided. One type a global banker sibling with an AP and all the coordinating for 8+ people in several parties gets done.

    Not even time for a trip to the Beefy King. Too bad. The tater tots rule.

    http://beefyking.com/

  45. And then the toothy blond changes to a dark haired woman who can’t decide if she’s flirty, snarky, or silly. She’s annoying though. Did learn that Test Track got redressed. It needed it. And 50 different Star Tours trips? Right on!

    n

  46. If you survive the trip to DW, and the coronavirus, there’s always something else to worry about…

    … like a mile-wide asteroid approaching the Earth the end of April: https://earthsky.org/astronomy-essentials/asteroid-52768-1998-or2-april-2020-how-to-see .

    They predict it won’t get closer than 4 million miles (or 16 times the Earth-moon distance). Although it has been classified as a “Potentially Hazardous Asteroid”. And it will be visible with small 6-8″ telescopes.

    And it is predicted to get closer in 2079 – 1 million miles.

    There’s always something to worry about…

  47. I actually prefer the old Test Track.

    Star Tours does have that many different trips, but ride it enough and you will see the same 4 or 5 scenes quite often.

  48. “There’s always something to worry about… ”

    –au contraire mon frere… I don’t worry about astronomical disasters because there is nothing I can do about them. My library exists, and will help rebuild society no matter the calamity but that’s the extent of it. And earth killing asteroids weren’t even the fourth or fifth reason for creating my library.

    n

  49. And then the toothy blond changes to a dark haired woman who can’t decide if she’s flirty, snarky, or silly. She’s annoying though. Did learn that Test Track got redressed. It needed it. And 50 different Star Tours trips? Right on!

    The dark haired woman is Stacy Aswad, who has done the “Must See” videos for ~ 20 years. My guess is that Disney is trying to ease her out without doing it suddenly like the previous host.

    At one point, Toyota almost took over sponsorship of Test Track IIRC.

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