Wednesday, 1 October 2014

10:02 – I got a fair amount done on the book yesterday, including reformatting it using the O’Reilly/MAKE stylesheet. Not that I think O’Reilly/MAKE would be interested in publishing a prepping title, but their stylesheet has lots of useful features, such as pull-outs for Notes, Warnings, and Sidebars. And, if it does turn out that they’re interested in buying the print rights at some point, the manuscript will already be properly formatted for their production folks. If O’Reilly/MAKE doesn’t want it, I’ll just self-publish the paper version on Amazon CreateSpace.

Poor Don, our UPS guy. He doesn’t know it yet, but I ordered a few thousand rounds of ammunition, which UPS is supposed to deliver Friday. That order includes 1,200 rounds of 5.56mm and 600 rounds of .357, which aren’t light, but the real killer is the 1,000 rounds of 12-gauge shotgun shells. Of course, there’s all the 7.62mm, .44 Special, and probably a couple more I’ve forgotten. Oh, yeah, and the 100 rounds of .22LR, which is all they allow in a single order.


12:43 – This makes for some scary reading, particularly since I believe Mr. Warner is optimistic: Mass default looms as world sinks beneath a sea of debt

57 thoughts on “Wednesday, 1 October 2014”

  1. Obummer says no troops on the ground. Here’s the reality:

    The US Marine Corps plans to deploy 2,300 troops to the Middle East for a new unit designed to quickly respond to crises in the volatile region, the Pentagon said Tuesday.

    A thousand here, a thousand there, who’s counting.

  2. He doesn’t know it yet, but I ordered a few thousand rounds of ammunition, which UPS is supposed to deliver Friday.

    From who? Are you paying sales tax?

  3. Geez, hasn’t the Telegraph’s utter and complete inability to predict the future with even a small degree of accuracy sunk in yet? Even The Daily Mail is a better paper.

  4. Don’t know if anyone else has noticed that there is so much crude oil production in the USA now that the WTI price has dropped to $90/bbl and the Brent price has dropped to $95/bbl. Over the next twelve months, the crude oil production in the USA is expected to increase another two to three million barrels per day. We are somewhere around seven million barrels per day of production in the USA right now.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/11131576/Dollar-surge-triggers-oil-rout-as-Brent-crude-tumbles.html

    ““Fundamentally, there appears to be no short-term upward price pressure in WTI; after all, the shale revolution has completely changed the oil trade picture in the US. In 2005, the US was importing 60pc of its oil compared with 3pc today,” said Fu. ”

    I really, really, really hope that we are not heading back to $25/bbl. That is what happened in 1986 and the oil and gas world basically died for three years.

    Of course, this is assuming that everyone in the USA does not die of Ebola.

  5. Just curious, could you describe your workflow using the O’Reilly/MAKE stylesheet? Thanks.

  6. Oil at $25/barrel would be a great thing. Sure, it’d hurt producers, but it would kickstart the world economy bigtime. And don’t forget that many/most of those producers are really nasty people. Just look at OPEC’s membership, not a single country of which is anything friendly to the US, and then add in Russia.

    @ Chuck W

    You must be kidding. The Telegraph is better at predicting than any other MSM source I know of.

    @Lynn McGuire

    I ordered from Cabelas. No sales tax.

  7. I’ve said this here before, and I’ll say it here again: The last thing this country needs right now is a martyred President, especially this President.

    It’s emblematic of how pervasively corrupt the current administration is that the rot has permeated even the Secret Service.

    (And I do realize that I’m preaching to the choir! 🙂 )

  8. Telegraph was one of the first to predict the imminent demise of the EU. I’m waiting. They predicted Scotland would vote for independence. They still predict that the UK will separate itself completely from the EU. I’m waiting. It is one of the worst at reporting unbiased facts, and slips their editorial position into their articles as much or more than the NYTimes and WAPO.

    This see-saw of the oil industry is the clearest example of why money needs to be tied to the Earth with gold, just like electrical circuits need Earth grounds to function properly.

    Before that unprosecuted felon, tricky Dick Nixon, closed the gold window, currencies and countries were automatically required to keep the actual purchasing price value of their money within a narrow range. This had the effect of delivering reliable information to investors about where and when to put money into infrastructure. There were no missteps in the oil industry’s consistent and unspectacular growth prior to Dick Nixon. But 1971 pulled the plug on honest information on investment returns and the inability to reliably predict next year’s state of an industry. Hedge funds came into existence specifically to cope with huge new gyrations in currency and purchasing power values. AND, tricky Dick made Saudi Arabia — a country that has always been a wolf in Little Red Riding Hood’s burka — super rich!

    Meanwhile, the oil industry has variously both underspent and overspent in trying to second guess what the value of oil will be next year, as opposed to this year. At one point just before we moved from Boston to Berlin, gas was 99¢/gal, after having been over $2/gal not 8 months earlier. Only ten years later it was well over $4/gal.

    IMO, socialism can only exist when governments have the power to make the currency-based assets you hold worth less. THAT is the real way they get other people’s money to spend. And they will not run out of other people’s money until the currency is worthless, contrary to most here, who believe they will hit the wall imminently. They have a long, long way to go.

    No Congress will ever return us to the gold standard, as that means they can no longer accomplish their socialist intentions. But if there was ever a reason to revolt against our government, it is because they continuously steal the purchasing power of the money you and I earned and saved twenty years ago, so it will buy less than half what it did back then. I bought an Oldsmobile Cutlass for $2,800 when I graduated from high school in 1965 with a part-time job working about 20 hours a week, and had money left over to pay for college. Equivalent car today is over $30,000. And don’t give me that line that cars have advanced. Of course they have. They use cheaper materials, are put together with less complex methods, use super-cheap robotic labor instead of human labor, and are less expensive to produce today than in 1965 when adjusted for inflation. But the currency is out-of-control, and $2,800 of purchasing in 1965 now requires $21,300, nearly 10 times what it did 50 years ago.

    I have long contended that if I set aside $2,800 in 1965, I should be able to purchase a car for that amount — or very close to it — 20 years later. But, there will be people here now, as there have been when I have brought this up before, who do not even believe that is possible, let alone desirable. Ok — keep funding those socialist politicians. You want a stop to socialism, make them hold the currency absolutely stable in purchasing power. Do not let the leftist economists, who want to devalue the currency (and the worth of your asset holdings) as an easy way to win on trade balances. Make them do like the Germans do: work to increase exports significantly, IN SPITE OF currency appreciation. We are not as smart as the Germans? We are! But we put lazy bastards in charge of the country and finance, who advance things by merely stealing from your hard-earned savings.

    Best thing that can happen to us, IMO, is significant deflation. It will drive the socialists to insanity and protect your savings and mine.

  9. Yeah, Chuck, and you may not have to wait much longer. Greece is pretty much gone already, Spain and Portugal are in abysmal shape, France is near collapse, and Italy is already on its way down the tubes. All of those countries–and others–are in much worse shape than they were at the “height” of the crisis. Even Germany is starting to show major cracks in its economy. My guess is that Italy will be the first to make it explicit, either by an outright default or by abandoning the euro and returning to the lira. The top is very close now to blowing off.

  10. Chuck, you talk about socialism as though you think it’s a Bad Thing, but what do you think you are if not a socialist?

  11. Boyz, boyz, boyz, caint we all jes git along??

    More intel coming out now; former Murkan and Euro spooks say next spring looks very interesting here and elsewhere; while Murkan social and political elites head for the high ground, or maybe the low ground, depending; they’re bailing or prepping to bail in droves now. Some to official sites and some to like-minded, heavily secured estate communities. And there is speculation that some of those sites and communities may be targeted, as in fewer peeps around to know the real score.

    So all this idle chit-chat about the economy and gas prices and suchlike may well become utterly moot sooner than we think. Big dive in the financial markets today; anyone catch that? If there is a huge crash in the first or second quarter of next year and massive civil unrest, the Feds will start cracking down with martial law, if not nationally, then in certain regions. The unrest and bitterness and rage simmer just under the surface among tens of millions. With a very large percentage armed to the teeth and more millions of combat-trained and experienced veterans.

    I tend to agree with Dr. Bob that we won’t be as bad off here as it will be in other pahts of the world, but it will be bad enuff.

  12. Forgot to mention that I got my Shell Mastercard canceled over the weekend. Was driving back from Dallas and buying gas at Centerville Shell. The pump said see the cashier when I used my Shell MC but I already knew. I, and 60 million others, used our credit cards at Home Depot last year. They called me last Thursday to cancel it but I asked them to wait until Monday. So lost my 20 cents/gal discount on 20 gallons (max of 100 gallons per month). Now I get to reset my credit card at about ten places where I use it for autopay: electric, samsclub.com, amazon, etc.

    Something is going to have to be done about these credit card breaches. We are going to need to move to a more trustworthy system. Maybe always use a PIN, etc. I do not know the best system and look forward to some bright person out there figuring it out.

  13. By the end of 2015 all cards will be chip and pin. Your new card Lynn will have a chip. Many stores have new readers that will eventually accept the cards. Cards will still have magnetic stripes.

  14. And by the end of 2016 we won’t need cahds anymore because they’ll have chips implanted in our necks and nanochips in our bloodstreams.

    Well, not mine, anyway; I will probably have been shot “resisting arrest” or “being in the line of fire” or sumthin. I won’t be going alone, though; you’ll possibly read about it somewhere or other eventually.

    On the other hand, maybe enuff kidz like the one I have “helping” me at work will figger out ways to circumvent all that stuff. He seems to know a helluva lot about phones and pooter games and where to get tattoos. Still, takes some of the pressure off most days; yesterday was insane; today not too bad, and we nailed quite a few Winblows help desk issues. I discovered that if I pahk my cah too close to the building we get slammed all day; if I pahk it way the hell away, we don’t. It’s held up now for a coupla weeks.

    Leaving early Fridays for my VA appointments in the afternoons and then skating home to do whatever. Mrs. OFD in Minneapolis this week and next week taking her mom up to the cottage that is about to drop off into the north Atlantic. Our plan is for her to keep pulling two gigs a month most months and me working full-time until we get the tax Gestapo off us and some big-ticket items at the house done, maybe another year or two and then we hope she can drop to one gig a month.

    All moot, of course, if the chit hits the fan in a huge way next year or the year after.

  15. Oh boy! I just became…a Windows Insider! I am now downloading a Windows 10 .iso to play with on some other box. What a thrill. It’s 3.8 GB. And stuck at 0.0. Whatevuh.

    Some other otherwise defunct box at work, not here. The rest of the machines here are all Linux.

  16. What’s gonna kill us all off first? Ebola? Financial collapse? Civil unrest? Rampaging jihadis? Elite conspiracies?

    And haven’t we seen this movie before?

  17. By the end of 2015 all cards will be chip and pin

    I thought the US was going with signature instead of pin. My Sams MC is chipped and I have to sign. They already have chip readers. I’d rather have pin myself.

  18. By the end of 2015 all cards will be chip and pin. Your new card Lynn will have a chip. Many stores have new readers that will eventually accept the cards. Cards will still have magnetic stripes.

    So how is that going to work at Amazon? Or samsclub.com? Or my electricity provider? Or my tolltag? None of these people have ever even seen my card, it is all me typing in my 16 digits and my expiration date on their website. Maybe the CCV also.

  19. “What’s gonna kill us all off first?”

    3.) A comet striking the earth like a bullet hitting an apple.

    2.) A hitherto unknown race of orc-like intra-terrestrials will sweep up from the bowels of the earth and slaughter us all for food. They have advance troops in the cities already.

    1.) And the Number-One cause of our demise will be the forthcoming world tour of the ABBA-clone singing group warming up for Celine Dion.

  20. I don’t have a Kindle, so I’d be buying the .PDF version of the Bug Out book. I’d also pay for a printed & bound copy. Call me crazy, but I still like the physical presence of a book. And if you’re actually worried about TEOTWAWKI, there’s at least a decent chance that your computer system won’t work very well.
    I’d also like to get my hands on the full suite of books from the 70s / 80s on how to live much like our pre-industrial ancestors – I don’t know the name. I can remember my mothers seeing one of those books and laughing. The information was things that all women taught their daughters, &/or fathers their sons, for the last few thousand years. She was born in the early 20th century in a part of the US that was still largely untouched by the industrial revolution, and grew up little differently than she would have in the early 19th century. I’m not sure that there were any internal combustion engines in her home county when she was born; I’m absolutely sure that’s true of her parents.

    And re: the UPS guy. One of the business my family owned when I was young was a compressed air based shooting gallery, like found in many amusement parks at the time. The ammo was lead shot, 0.25″ in diameter, and delivered by UPS in a very small box weighing 49#. The boxes were so small, dense, and numerous that the driver (and presumably the loaders) had to struggle mightily to deal with them. We’d usually bring a wheeled skid to their truck, at their request, so we could take the whole lot (usually 10 boxes) directly to the shop area. And then yours truly got to scoop the pellets into the little plastic 10 round capacity tubes that were used to arm the guns.

  21. Lynn wrote:

    “Maybe always use a PIN, etc. I do not know the best system and look forward to some bright person out there figuring it out.”

    We did that as of 1st August. Must use a PIN.

  22. medium wave wrote:

    “What’s gonna kill us all off first? Ebola? Financial collapse? Civil unrest? Rampaging jihadis? Elite conspiracies?

    And haven’t we seen this movie before?”

    Yeah, the government nuked Dallas in Independence Day.

  23. I have both the Foxfire series and Other Homes and Garbage. Both are, AIR, excellent, but I haven’t looked at either in 30 years.

  24. Speaking of reference books, I have printed versions of both _Ship’s Medicine Chest and Medical Aid at Sea_ and _Emergency War Surgery_, but I downloaded PDF versions yesterday (as well as a UN version of SMC). Both are excellent for prepper use, although interestingly the older editions are often more useful. SMC assumes a ship in isolation where non-physicians have to deal with both routine and emergency medical treatment. EWS was originally written for non-surgeon MDs as well as anyone else with some medical training, including veterinarians, dentists, nurses, and EMTs.

  25. “Both are excellent for prepper use, although interestingly the older editions are often more useful.”

    I have found that same quality to be true for encyclopedias, the Bible, and the Book of Common Prayer. Ditto a lot of books about machinery and industrial topics.

  26. Well, it is a tough choice on the socialism front. I prefer it to communism or facism, but would like to delay it as long as possible and make its implementation as difficult as possible. It is inevitable as the next coming thing, however.

    Stock market swings of 2%/day are meaningless IMO. I may have to revise that upward to 3%. I ignore them. When we start seeing a repeat of 2008, then I will start worrying.

    And regarding the EU — what has it been now? I returned to the US at the beginning of 2010 and it was shortly after that the predictions of EU demise started here. Almost five years later and everyone is still in, and others are lined up to join. No matter how bad it gets, in this era it would be worse if any of them left. This is definitely not the same economy as post WWII. Latest example of BIG is the coming wave of consolidations (BIG getting BIGGER) in mall ownership. Little will not prevail over BIG anytime that I foresee.

    We had chips in ALL of our cards in Germany from the time we arrived. Not sure what the advantage is. I am shocked that US ATM’s do not take your card if you cannot give your PIN after 3 attempts. Wife had her wallet stolen, and her debit card (also the ATM card) was recovered in less than an hour by an ATM.

  27. From what I have read, the key to increasing security is getting rid of the mag stripe and readers, NOT adding a chip. Of course, that will take a long time. In the mean time, credit cardholders are limited to $50 liability in most instances. One of the few good govt rules.

    I only use ATMs that let me swipe my card, and thought the ones that swallowed them had long disappeared. Still remember the early days of having a malfunction cause the machine to keep my card, and having to wait one to three days to get it back. I still insist on an ATM-only card, but lately for different reasons. My institution wants to add a debit function. I have never had a debit card, and won’t unless there are financial incentives. Oh, and safety equal to or better than credit cards.

  28. My current bank only offers a debit card as an ATM card. Has something to do with the fact that ATM’s are no longer standalone, run only by your bank, but are now networked so any bank’s card will work in any other ATM. Apparently, all cards now have to conform to certain requirements that are no longer set by your local bank.

    I have never understood why there was not a shift from magnetic stripes to unchangeable optical barcodes decades ago.

  29. Every ATM I’ve used in Australia swallows your card while you’re doing transactions. When I buy stuff with a credit or debit card I usually just insert it 2 cm into the hand held reader, or “tap” it against the reader. I haven’t swiped for a year or two.

  30. Chuck wrote:

    “Well, it is a tough choice on the socialism front. I prefer it to communism or facism…”

    This is called the fallacy of the excluded middle or false dilemma.

    I don’t like socialism but like some “socialist” ideas such as universal health care supported by taxes or a levy, and government provision of natural monopolies. My bill for a one week stay in hospital in May, along with an operation and follow-up visits to various specialists was $0.00. (And yes, I paid for that through my taxes for 35 years.)

  31. OFD wrote:

    “I have found that same quality to be true for … the Book of Common Prayer.”

    Amen brother, but why are *you* still reading a book written by “heretics”?

  32. My really fave form of gummint is the wunnerful one we have now, a fascist corporate oligarchy, temporarily run by janitor Bolshevik scum for purposes and amusement we can only imagine of the One Percent globalist elites who rule the planet now. The more and the longer this goes on, the greater the cataclysm to come and the better chance of a solid ass-kicking reboot and reinstall of a better operating system, preferably either OpenVMS or the original Articles of Confederation.

  33. “…why are *you* still reading a book written by “heretics”?”

    Good question, sir; I was raised with that book, know its history to the beginning and since, and marvel still at its gorgeous language. So I still read it and the KJV alongside my Catholic missal and Catechism and the daily/weekly ‘modern English’ translations of same, though the latter tomes cause me to almost become bored rigid.

  34. The more and the longer this goes on, the greater the cataclysm to come and the better chance of a solid ass-kicking reboot and reinstall of a better operating system, preferably either OpenVMS or the original Articles of Confederation.

    You know that reboot will not work. We do not get second chances on things this important. So, who are you going to nominate for the role of Napoleon in this nightmare?

  35. OFD wrote:

    “…and reinstall of a better operating system, preferably either NOS/BE or the original Articles of Confederation.”

    There, fixed that for you.

  36. “We do not get second chances on things this important.”

    We won’t get any second chances via the usual electoral/political/media processes, either; those days are long gone.

    “So, who are you going to nominate for the role of Napoleon in this nightmare?”

    It’ll be somebody we haven’t heard of yet; some guy on some kinda hoss, riding in, when the chit and the fire and smoke are so thick peeps will beg for order and peace. I can’t think of any Murkans offhand who fit this bill currently; it’d be somebody like Putin.

    “NOS/BE”

    Oh? Is that an operating system that runs countless hospitals, banks, government organizations, NATO, etc., etc., for decades?

  37. The reboot will not be any more cataclysmic than Rome’s. That is to say, the Constitution will be gone. I favor direct democracy anyway. Much, much harder to buy every voter in the country than the paltry number of their elected representatives.

    And being with OFD on voting, who cares if most do not vote? We are getting close to that now, anyway.

  38. The Constitution has been gone already for quite some time; The Great Eliminator put the final kibosh on that. Birdcage liner, like the Bill of Rights. As for democracy, the Founders took a very dim view of it; it’s probably doable in population clusters of less than 5k, like where me and Mrs. OFD live. And still prevalent here in northern New England, a remaining vestige of the old Anglo-Saxon gatherings and the Norse “Thing.”

    Voting? Hah. What a joke it’s become; the numbers dwindle by the minute. No one’s interested anymore, except fantasists and fellow-travelers, who still believe in Santa and the Tooth Fairy. The rest of us know it for the shuck and jive it really is. The two most recent and relevant exemplars of the character have been Larry Klinton and Barry Soetero.

  39. NOS/BE is the o/s of heaven. If it can run heaven for eternity then it needs no higher recommendation.

  40. The blasphemy is to even intimate that anything less than MCP (or, as a stop gap, but a [literally] damned big gap, VMS) could schedule and control heavenly affairs.

  41. The blasphemy is to even intimate that anything less than MCP … could schedule and control heavenly affairs.

    I second that! 🙂

  42. Chuck, my bank is actually a credit union, but that shouldn’t matter. Their ATMs are also networked. I occasionally use my ATM-only card in foreign ATMs (different banks as well as overseas,) and it works fine. It has lots of symbols on its back, so it it probably welcome in more places than I am. I think it is due to expire next month, so will see what happens.

    Agree on the optical bar codes. Even our California driver’s licenses have had that for a long time. Never knew what it is for, as nobody has ever scanned mine.

    I think a fixed code would be less susceptible to exploits than a chip that can store varying data.

  43. We have optical barcodes in our driver’s licenses, too. Hotels are the only ones who scan mine, but they do scan them, if you have one. Lots of hotels in my life lately. That is another item, like cars, the price of which has become totally out-of-line with incomes and the price of other things in general. Normally the hotel is re-billed to the client, but still, it goes on my card, and it has been a lot of money at the end of the month, which I usually do not get reimbursed for, until 6 weeks later or more.

  44. “…which I usually do not get reimbursed for, until 6 weeks later or more.”

    Nearly ditto with Mrs. OFD’s travels and hotel and meals and trans expenses on her gigs around the country. Her cheap-ass prick employers pay for her airfare but she’s expected to pony up the other stuff in advance and then get reimbursed weeks later, and sometimes they get niggardly about nickels and dimes, when she’s gone out of her way for years to SAVE them money. They also never gave back the money they cut from her and the other three senior consultants years ago; and they won’t do direct deposit for her but they do it for their office staff. And no raise for the past six years that Mrs. OFD and the others have worked their butts off, trained new people, and brought in millions in revenue for their coffers in Mordor.

    She got hosed bad for the ten years she worked for state gummint up here, too; the kid is an angel, a saint (she’d have to be to put up with me) and been consistently effed over. Really too nice a person, but she’s coming around on that lately. Also actually saying no occasionally to Princess.

    Progress.

  45. Don wrote:

    “The blasphemy is to even intimate that anything less than MCP (or, as a stop gap, but a [literally] damned big gap, VMS) could schedule and control heavenly affairs.”

    Nah, MCP runs hell…

  46. OFD wrote:

    “Also actually saying no occasionally to Princess. ”

    Pictures, recordings of young feminine tantrums, sobs, etc, or it didn’t happen.

  47. This is called the fallacy of the excluded middle or false dilemma.

    I am not debating which is best for the world, I am stating the fact of which *I* prefer over what.

  48. Chuck, you were presenting socialism as *the* alternative to two unpalatable extremes. But there are many such alternatives, hence you were presenting a false dilemma.

  49. Greg, I am not! I am telling you and all, that of 3 systems I present, which one I personally prefer. Other alternatives do not enter that equation AT ALL!

    If I tell you that of 3 items on my plate, — a steak, mashed potatoes, and green beans, — I prefer the steak, in no way is that a false dilemma because I don’t include the hundreds of other food choices on Earth.

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