Saturday, 10 March 2012

09:31 – Most of the news reports are celebrating Greece’s default as some kind of victory. It’s a “victory”, of course, only in the sense that the Dunkirk evacuation was a victory for Britain. The probability of chaotic default in the near term–possibly as early as next week, and almost certainly by summer–is still extremely high, and even the most optimistic observers don’t believe that this latest action has done anything to put Greece’s debt on a sustainable footing.

Almost no one believes that this default will improve matters for Greek citizens, who are doomed by this agreement to decades of extreme poverty and unimaginable suffering. The only sane action for Greece at this point is to default entirely on all of its debts, including those to the EU and IMF, and exit the euro, which almost certainly means also exiting the EU. Returning to the drachma means Greek citizens are still doomed to extreme poverty and unimaginable suffering, but only for perhaps 10 years rather than the 30 or 40 years under the current agreement. Greece must understand that the EU has already written it off, and simply doesn’t care what that means for Greece or Greeks.

Today will be a routine Saturday. I’ll do laundry, and we’ll work on the biology kits.