Wed. Sept. 12, 2018 – big storm coming

75F and damp in Houston

It’s about to get very windy and wet in a day or two.

In all seriousness, there is a truly massive storm headed for a good percentage of our population. A population that hasn’t had a big storm in a while. A population that is much more accessible to the NYC based news orgs than the hicks and racists along the Gulf Coast….(-endsarc) so expect to see more coverage. Which is a good thing, because it is likely to be very bad.

If you are anywhere to the left of where Florence is expected to come ashore, or anywhere north or south of it, you ARE going to be affected, if only because your neighbors are.

Remember that the effects of the storm have a much wider area of impact than the ‘cone of uncertainty’ shown on TV. The cone shows where it might land, not how wide the storm’s area is, nor does it show WHEN the first effects will get there. That will be much earlier than landfall itself.

Let us all hope that it gets pushed out to sea, and that it grazes the coast rather than hits it straight on.

Knock-on effects will be widespread too. Air travel is likely to be messed up for days. What joy that I’m traveling with my family on Thur, and Sunday. EVERYTHING is going to be disrupted- gasoline delivery, food delivery, air travel, shipping…

Make what arrangements you can at this late date. Hopefully everyone reading this is well prepared.

n

48 thoughts on “Wed. Sept. 12, 2018 – big storm coming”

  1. I will be doing some extra hurricane preparation this weekend. There is no storm directed at New England so this is the perfect time to do it. I’ll test out some emergency gear, charge up the rechargeable batteries, make sure there is room in the shed for loose yard items that might become airborne, stack up some more water, top off propane tanks, etc. Of course, I already have tons of long term food stored.

    Although I plan to rely on my solar panels and battery setup for emergency electricity it is always good to have a backup. I bought a small propane generator that is scheduled for delivery Friday.

    Remember to be PRE-pared.

  2. JLP: I bought a Champion 7.5 KW dual fuel generator 3 years ago and it’s paid for itself several times over when we had two long power outages. I LOVE running it on propane, no mess, no spills, easy to swap out tanks. And it’s much cleaner and extends oil life. I just installed 4 “emergency” LED bulbs. These are just like regular “75w” LED bulbs but have a battery that keeps them running when power goes out. They are a little longer than standard LEDs and so won’t fit in some fixtures but I’m giving these a try.
    Living in Memphis we see occasional flooding from the Mississippi and I am VERY sensitive about driving into water especially flowing water. I fear some on the east coast may make poor decisions and get themselves killed. It’s all too easy.

  3. @jlp, I wouldn’t be too sure New England will be spared. Florence could turn north after hitting the coast, or even before the coast. It’s a big wide storm and will have far reaching effects.

    n

  4. Yep. Anything can happen so I will be ready. I’m always prepared for emergency but this weekend will be a good time to double and triple check everything.

    I bought the propane generator because it was affordable and I am not really set up to store gasoline outside of the cars. I can store propane. I have 5 20lb tanks and 20 1lb cylinders.

  5. I think I mentioned that my costco has a house branded little inverter based gennie that runs on propane for sale this month. It looks identical to the ryobi one here

    Looks like a viable alternative to other small gennies…

    n

  6. The Ryobi is the one I bought. Home Depot says I will have it on Friday. It looks like it will serve my purposes as a backup (or adjunct) to the solar panels. Plus it could be used for camping or other outings.

    I don’t need much electricity. I have gas heat, hot water, and stove. Yeah, I like my AC in the hot weather but, unlike down south, it really isn’t a survival necessity in New England.

  7. JLP: I used my generator to keep my fridge and two chest freezers running and a few LED lights and fans. Don’t want to loose the half side of beef and misc we have frozen

  8. CowboySlim From yesterday:

    The problem is that the politicians freak when ….

    They also lie. Here the Teslas and similar have stickers on the back that say “ZERO EMISSIONS”. Well, their emissions are at the nearest electrical generating facility that turns CH4 into CO2 and H2O. Our local buses make that conversion up and down the street at their tailpipes. However, the politicians can’t admit to the difference in locations for the same emissions.

    Or maybe they are chemically ignorant. Lynn?

    All electricity in the Kalifornia grid was generated using free range electrons gathered by solar panels, windmills, and hydroelectric turbines. I have this on record from the gubernator.

  9. @HC – I used my generator to keep my fridge and two chest freezers running and a few LED lights and fans. Don’t want to loose the half side of beef and misc we have frozen

    Lose it? Hell start cookin’ it. Be a hero to the neighbors.

    @Lynn -All electricity in the Kalifornia grid was generated using free range electrons gathered by solar panels, windmills, and hydroelectric turbines. I have this on record from the gubernator.

    I’ll keep that in mind. Just paid my $754 PG&E bill today. August was a very hot month (in all honesty I’ve had worse).

  10. Jeez, I run 8 tons of air at my secondary location, and that only costs me ~$350 a month during the summer.

    n

  11. Interestingly, I just bought 2 pallets of solar panels. They are the smaller ones you see atop poles near the roadway to power school zone flashing lights, and similar things.

    We’ll see, but some of the 70 panels probably work… and the price was right. (and they often have charge controllers stuck to the back- at least in the wild.)

    n

  12. I just installed 4 “emergency” LED bulbs. These are just like regular “75w” LED bulbs but have a battery that keeps them running when power goes out. They are a little longer than standard LEDs and so won’t fit in some fixtures but I’m giving these a try.

    URL ?

    How do the bulbs know when you have turned off the light switch instead of the power going out ?

  13. I’ll keep that in mind. Just paid my $754 PG&E bill today. August was a very hot month (in all honesty I’ve had worse).

    Wow, my peak bill to run my 8 tons of a/c at the house plus the 1.5 hp pool pump ten hours per day was $315 in July.

  14. All electricity in the Kalifornia grid was generated using free range electrons gathered by solar panels, windmills, and hydroelectric turbines. I have this on record from the gubernator.

    Like everything else, Kalifornia outsourced their power generation. The coal fired plants went to Nevada, and CA buys excess hydropower from WA and OR.

    The big energy silliness on the Left Coast is winter blend gasoline. Debate the merits all you want, but they don’t have spare refining capacity in the event of mishaps during the switchover periods.

    Maybe RickH can help me out — west of the Cascades, gas is $4/gallon or very close as I type this, right?

  15. “GREAT AGAIN: USA Is Now The Largest Global Crude Oil Producer – Surpasses Russia and Saudi Arabia”
    https://www.climatedepot.com/2018/09/12/the-united-states-is-now-the-largest-global-crude-oil-producer-surpassed-russia-and-saudi-arabia/

    “The United States likely surpassed Russia and Saudi Arabia to become the world’s largest crude oil producer earlier this year, based on preliminary estimates in EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).”
    https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/

    Hat tip to:
    https://drudgereport.com/

  16. California has the highest cost electric around. The Central Valley gets screwed over by the high priced tiers that are enacted to save energy (HAHA). While most of the coastal areas never exceed the 1st or 2nd tier we are often in the 3rd. Also the big 3 energy companies have the Public Utility Comm. in their pocket. Nothing is ever paid by investors, the rate payer gets stuck with it all.

  17. Gas on the Kitsap peninsula and Olympic Peninsula ranges from $2.93 (at Costco last week) to $3.59 (some more rural stations). Most stations are in the $3.39 range.

    Taking a trip to CA next week, expect to see prices $3.99 and up. I’ve used the GasBuddy app on the phone to find gas stations/pricing on the road. Crowd-sourced pricing; usually accurate, and nation-wide.

    @lynn : battery-backup LED bulb on the Big River: https://amzn.to/2CO4hmX .; $20/each. Several others found via the googles. Sez the description:

    Sengled Everbright LED Bulb integrates a rechargeable built-in Lithium-Ion battery, bulb will automatically activate in the event of a sudden power outage(Hurricane,Snowstorm) and will light for up to 3.5 hours.
    NOT ONLY BULB – The Everbright light bulb can be used as FLASHLIGHT for home or outdoor, just hold the bulb socket with your hand and the bulb will switch on as flashlight.

    I have two FLASHLIGHTS similar to these in an electrical outlet in central spot: https://amzn.to/2CLDqYF (2-pack $20 at Big River) . Turns on automatically when the power is out, can also be used as a FLASHLIGHT . LEDs, so will last a long time, and automatically recharges. Similar items available; ask your googles.

  18. Well, I just started the process of refinancing my commercial mortgage on my 9 acre commercial property. The current note balloons in December. Probably going to get a fixed 6% rate with a 15 year term. I am going to get some cash back to reinvest in the property and do other things. The monthly payment will end up being about 1/3rd of the current monthly income.

  19. “Hurricane Florence: Washington Post declares Trump is ‘complicit’ for dangerous storm”
    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/09/12/hurricane-florence-washington-post-declares-trump-is-complicit-for-dangerous-storm.html

    “The editorial board of the Washington Post has declared that President Trump is “complicit” for Hurricane Florence because of his views on climate change.”

    Yup, we are living in Heinlein’s crazy years. One wonders if we are entering them, in the middle, or at the end. I’ve got a bad feeling that we have yet to reach peak crazy.

    Hat tip to:
    https://drudgereport.com/

  20. JLP: I bought a Champion 7.5 KW dual fuel generator 3 years ago and it’s paid for itself several times over when we had two long power outages. I LOVE running it on propane, no mess, no spills, easy to swap out tanks. And it’s much cleaner and extends oil life.

    Like this for $830 ? Five hours of runtime for a 20 lb propane bottle according to a poster.
    https://www.amazon.com/Champion-7500-Watt-Portable-Generator-Electric/dp/B01A0TLE5U?tag=ttgnet-20

    How noisy is that bad boy ? Wait, that is sexist. How noisy is that little monster ? Argh, that is specist. How noisy is that generator ?

  21. @lynn … the specs on that generator say “With a noise level of 74 dBA from 23 feet, which is a bit louder than a vacuum”.

    I suspect it’s more like a gas lawnmower outside the house. I think a lot of gennies have Briggs and Stratton-type two-stroke engines, although some might be four-stroke.

    But I’m just guessing. I don’t mind the noise if the electricity’s out….power outages around my place are usually much less than 8 hours. Might get irritating for longer periods of time, especially if the whole neighborhood has generators.

  22. @lynn … the specs on that generator say “With a noise level of 74 dBA from 23 feet, which is a bit louder than a vacuum”.

    Sounds loud to me if one has the windows of the house open.

  23. Just a test to see in which time zone this post is stamped in.
    Ahhh.. EST.

    Okay, a couple more things.

    1. Yesterday CowboySlim noted the impact of producing a Priapus with all those batteries and rare earth magnets and God knows else probably outweighs any pollution savings that a so-called “environmentally friendly” car might possess.
    It’s a simple matter of _Innumeracy_, which book ought to be required reading who has ever uttered the words,”Save the Planet”.

    2. Anyone here an avid fly fisherman? I recently unearthed all my mother’s, my brother’s, and my own stuff and started casting in the park across the street just for fun. I need a new line and could use some advice. I also have probably a hundred and fifty flies which I don’t really need, so if someone’s interested drop me a note… cooleyjim at the ole gmale.


  24. Taking a trip to CA next week, …..

    Let me know if you are coming to Huntington Beach, PBRs on me.

  25. Five hours of runtime for a 20 lb propane bottle

    Uh, how much gasoline would it use in the same time? A 20 lb bottle refill runs $17 for an exchange at the grocery store.

    A propane refill is a bit less at the propane place but you get more propane.

  26. @CowboySlim: thanks for the invite…this trip is only going to Sacramento area. (And I’ll have a cherry Kool-Aid instead…)

    Next month’s trip to D-land with youngest daughter and family (husband, wife, 3 kids). Will probably have just enough energy to do D-land. (I need to start walking more to build up my stamina.)

    But you are welcome to have a PBR at any time (although I suspect an excuse is not needed).

  27. Lynn: That’s the generator I bought. I paid $545 for a refurbished and fully guaranteed one. It runs at least 6hr on. 20lb propane bottle, maybe longer, but I swapped out after 6 hrs. It’s easy electric start but it is loud. But loud I can live with. I run it 4 hours on and 4 off and it keeps frozen food frozen. In my area, Walmart will exchange a 20lb bottle for $14.85.

  28. I get a bottle refilled for $11 or $12 at the independent guy, cash only.

    That noise rating is at 20+ feet… next to it is probably pretty dang loud. Next to your house, it’s gonna be pretty dang loud. I don’t know what my portable is rated at, but it’s pretty dang loud.

    n


  29. which book ought to be required reading who has ever uttered the words,”Save the Planet”.

    Nah, it’s a waste of time. If someone utters the words “save the planet” and is not clearly joking or quoting, just beat him to death with a roofing hammer. Save the planet, one splattered tard at a time.

  30. “The editorial board of the Washington Post has declared that President Trump is “complicit” for Hurricane Florence because of his views on climate change.”

    Yup, we are living in Heinlein’s crazy years. One wonders if we are entering them, in the middle, or at the end. I’ve got a bad feeling that we have yet to reach peak crazy.

    Most of the last 50 years has seen a lull in hurricanes by historical standards, especially in the Gulf of Mexico.

    The media are always careful to talk about storms in the timeframe of “since record keeping began”. God knows what they would do when faced with a Gulf storm event like the hurricanes which cut Clearwater Pass and put Captiva Island under three feet of water — even Charlie in 2004 didn’t wreak that kind of havoc in Florida.

  31. Roger Goodell, Saints players tour New Orleans’ criminal justice system

    The first four ‘graphs (emphasis added):

    “It was a typical morning in Magistrate Court in New Orleans: Twelve defendants were making their first appearances on recent arrests, 10 of them black and all of them shackled.

    “But there was one big difference this Tuesday: National Football League Commissioner Roger Goodell shared a hard wooden bench with a worried grandfather.

    “Saints players Benjamin Watson and Demario Davis watched as Magistrate Judge Harry Cantrell set $1,500 bail for a disabled man accused of cocaine possession.

    “Afterward, one observer said it was impossible to hear the clink of the defendants’ metal shackles without thinking of slavery. Goodell agreed.”

    This is all in aid of the national movement that’s pushing to reduce or eliminate bail requirements because the typical criminal is too poor to meet them.

    Definitely Heinlein’s Crazy Years.

  32. “I’ll keep that in mind. Just paid my $754 PG&E bill today. August was a very hot month (in all honesty I’ve had worse).”

    Wow, my peak bill to run my 8 tons of a/c at the house plus the 1.5 hp pool pump ten hours per day was $315 in July.

    Our bill has around $330 the last two months in Austin, but I have a 20 year old AC unit upstairs.

    One of our team is in Seattle this week doing an install of our stuff on the new tunnel the state dug under the city for Amazon. Born and raised in Brenham, the girl’s learning that I was right and there really are just two seasons there — August and Not August.

    Not August started on August 22 according to the weather geeks.

    (Hopefully my co-worker will be winging her way home before the hurricanes screw up air travel this weekend. Charlotte is a hub for whoever has what’s left of USAir.)

  33. Electric bill for August: $68.38. Approx. 3 ton central A/C unit cooling a less than 1000 sq ft residence.

    Bills for each of the past four months no higher than $75.00.

    Please don’t tell anyone. 😉

  34. Charlotte airport is closed as of midnight tonight. About 1000 flights canceled so far.

    I checked in for my flight tomorrow, IAH to ORD, and they are asking for volunteers. United’s new way asks you to set the cash it would take for you to reschedule, and if they need to, they take the volunteers lowest to highest. I am traveling with my family so opted NOT to volunteer. Back in the day, some folks made a pretty good living out of booking and volunteering on some routes.

    I used to hate going into that region on Useless Air.

    n

  35. Back in the day, some folks made a pretty good living out of booking and volunteering on some routes.

    IAH-ORD would be a pretty good route for that kind of game. Though, I wouldn’t want to “lose” and get stuck at ORD anyway due to a storm.

    Love Field to Austin during the height of Spring Break in March 2017, the offers got up to $400. I was tempted to let my wife and kids go while I took the Megabus. With the weather delays, I probably would have ended up waiting for them in Austin — that’s cool, Texas Chili Parlor is around the corner from the new stop, and the walk to my office isn’t too creepy.

    The problem with playing the game on Southwest if that they will eventually just boot low ‘C’ numbers without compensation.

  36. While subbing yesterday I found a new way the kids are cheating in class.

    Most of them have ChromeBooks and such devices are required for many assignments and some tests. What the kids are doing is opening a Google DOCS shared document and sharing with their friends. They now type into the DOCS document and that text shortly appears on their friends computer as changes to the document. This is repeated multiple times with the text showing as revisions to the shared document.

    I reported this to the school administration and they seemed to not be concerned. The principal stated that since the devices are used on the school network such activity is logged. I doubt the text of documents is logged. I also highly doubt that anyone in the clueless and lazy IT department of the school system is looking through any logs.

    This type of cheating, texting in class, texting between schools, is going to become more rampant with the schools having no clue. The school system should immediately shut down shared documents or have Google shut down shared documents in Google classroom.

  37. @ ray, Feature, not bug. School WANTS them to get better grades, saves the admin staff from having to ‘normalize’ the grading……

    n

  38. Grr.

    Cheating is cheating. I tried it once. Didn’t like it. _I_ didn’t do it, so it was a waste for me. I went and asked the prof to give me a makeup test without telling him why, and he could use the lower of the two grades. Scored better on the makeup.

    I’m trying to instill in my children the sense of accomplishment that comes from doing it themselves. They are SO proud when they do well on their own. They’re beginning to understand that riding the coat-tails of others is okay, but it’s their work that gets rewarded.

    And cheating brings shame. They haven’t, yet, and I hope they never will. But cheating brings shame.

  39. Cheating is the Commie way, so those kids will fit right in with society. No grades, no pressure, goobermint assistance cradle to grave.

    AOC 2020!

    “A *Bolt* in every garage!”


  40. School WANTS them to get better grades, saves the admin staff from having to ‘normalize’ the grading

    In the elementary school they would pass the failing kids for two reasons. One was to keep their promotion numbers up. The second was to just get the losers out of their class. But in HS they don’t pass those kids anymore. If they fail a required class they have to take the class again.

    Cheating seems to be the norm among a lot of kids. That pursuit of the grade without any effort. Kids of welfare parents who get money for doing nothing, such parents making every effort to cheat the system. Teaching their kids the same tricks and tool of the trade.

    They are SO proud when they do well on their own

    Good for them. It will serve them well later in life.

    No grades, no pressure, goobermint assistance cradle to grave.

    Yep, learning it from their parents. Losers all of them. Gaming the system to sit on their ass and draw government assistance. Some have back “injuries” from lifting a box. No longer able to work of course so they get SSI. The mother is not married to the father with the injury so she draws welfare as a single mother, tax refund as head of household yet pays no taxes. They live apart one month out of the year so they can qualify.

  41. @ ray, Feature, not bug. School WANTS them to get better grades, saves the admin staff from having to ‘normalize’ the grading……

    I saw lots of cheating among the Indian students in grad school. They lie as easily as they breathe.

    Administration knew about the cheating, but international tuition is a $10,000 premium per student per year, two years for Masters, so, like CS programs at a lot of mid-tier state schools, the MS program was essentially running an OPT diploma mill.

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