Tues, Aug.7 2018 – the belly of the beast

Sunny, blue sky, 70F here in Coast Guard City USA. Beautiful.

Local knowledge. This is something preppers forget or discount. Not having it could kill you.

Two days ago my host looked at the weather and beach report and declared that no way would we be going to the beach. The wind was from the wrong direction. The water would be muddy with a severe undertow and the waves would batter us. Two people died and 5 more were injured at the beach that day. They were not locals.

I’m headed into Chicago, for family business and to take the kids to a museum. I would not by choice. I’m no longer a local.

N

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44 Responses to Tues, Aug.7 2018 – the belly of the beast

  1. Bob Sprowl says:

    From yesterday:

    Did you have your first child when ya’ll were 5 ?

    Girl I dated in high school, two years younger than me, 65, is a great grandmother with that child being two years old currently. Had her first kid at 20, that kid had the first grand child at 21, grand child had their first kid at 24. Her great grand child will be starting school before my first grand child. So glad I did not marry that girl. She would have destroyed my life.

    My stepson (his father had custody) and his girl friend had two kids before they graduated from high school. They married after graduation and remain married – long odds on it lasting . Their daughter had a son before she graduated from high school. My wife was a great grandmother at 57. I’m three years her junior so I was a great-grandfather at 54.

  2. Greg Norton says:

    “Stealth Mortgage”. Interesting.

    The clock is ticking on us living in Texas. Between the pension obligations and the local ISD’s fascination with performing arts centers and $80 million football stadiums, I have no doubt that we will see $15k annual tax bill before we get out of our current house.

    Within the city limits of Austin, about 800 yards from where we live, houses similar to mine are already at $12-13k annually, essentially a mortgage on $200k of equity.

    https://www.dollarcollapse.com/pension-crisis-stealth-mortgage/

  3. Jenny says:

    @Greg
    Bejezus that article is as hair raising as the one posted yesterday about thieving guardianship.
    to a high of $180,000 per household in Alaska
    And our fearless leaders haven’t put down the shovel. They think oil prices will go back to the fat days and plan accordingly. Kicking the can down the road.

  4. lynn says:

    Within the city limits of Austin, about 800 yards from where we live, houses similar to mine are already at $12-13k annually, essentially a mortgage on $200k of equity.

    https://www.dollarcollapse.com/pension-crisis-stealth-mortgage/

    Run away now before they annex you !

    We were annexed by Sugar Land last December. Our taxes actually went down since they had to eat our MUD (municipal utility district: water, sewer, and roads). The tax rate went from 48 cents to 31 cents. But this year the FBCAD figured out that I added a gameroom and bathroom to our house in 2015 so my taxes will be going up. My wife is livid.

  5. lynn says:

    “Trump moves to roll back Obama emission standards”
    http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/400036-trump-submits-rule-to-weaken-iconic-obama-car-efficiency-standards

    “The Obama administration set the standards in 2012 as part of a set of rules meant to intensify from 2017 through 2026.”

    “Instead, the EPA and DOT are now proposing freezing the standards at their planned 2020 level, canceling any future strengthening.”

    “The agencies said new cars and light trucks built in 2020 through 2026 would average 37 miles per gallon under the proposed freeze. Obama’s rule would have resulted in 54.5 miles per gallon by 2026.”

    Basically, every car or truck sold in 2025 would have to be electric. If somebody wants to purchase an electric vehicle, go for it. But don’t force the issue.

    BTW, Consumer Reports tested the Tesla Model 3 in their latest issue. They paid $59,000 for it with a 310 mile battery. The Model 3 did get 310 miles on a single charge in their testing and they liked the front seats. But they said the back seats were abhorrent. CR initially failed the braking distance at 60 mph (over 300 feet) and Tesla flashed the braking to make it more aggressive to get a normal braking distance. 0 to 60 mph was an amazing 5.3 seconds.
    https://www.consumerreports.org/hybrids-evs/2018-tesla-model-3-review-fully-electric-but-not-fully-baked/

  6. Greg Norton says:

    Run away now before they annex you !

    A lot of politicians live in our little corner of Williamson County. I doubt it will happen.

    Either way, we’re here for six years because of a promise made to our kids about not moving again after the Northwest fiasco. Google Fiber would come with annexation by Austin.

  7. Dave says:

    Thankfully, I’ve never been local to Chicago. I am increasingly reluctant to visit my favorite Chicago museum or any other museums in Chicago. Even more reluctant to take my wife and daughter along.

  8. CowboySlim says:

    @Spook,

    The PBR box has OCT0818, but nothing on the cans.

    OK, I’ll be checking boxes in the store. If expired, I will offer two options:
    1. Allow me to take home at no charge, or
    2. I’ll notify county health agency.

    Just kidding.

  9. MarkD says:

    I fled the Syracuse suburbs a couple years ago – our property taxes including school taxes were in the low $7,000 range including a modest Vietnam era veteran’s exemption. I have more house in suburban KY with half the taxes, and KY is fairly middling as far as total state tax burdens go.

  10. lynn says:

    “Elon Musk’s tweet about going private costs Tesla short-sellers more than $800 million”
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/07/elon-musks-tweet-about-going-private-costs-tesla-short-sellers-more-t.html

    Elon Musk twittered that he is considering taking Tesla private at $420/share. Funding is secured.

    I wonder if he got legal advice on that twitter ? That stuff is actionable.

  11. Harold Combs says:

    This year I received a “elderly” reduction in property taxes. My yearly taxes dropped 48% to $397 on a decent $210K, 4 bedroom, 3 bath home here in northern Mississippi. Across the line in TN, property taxes are much higher but they don’t have an income tax there so Mississippi is better for retirees.
    In Oklahoma where I have my rentals, taxes on a $80K home will run about $800 a year which I consider high. One brother owns a home in Marin Country CA, a little 1200 sq ft place on a postage stamp lot, valued today at $890K. He spent his portion of the inheritance to pay down the mortgage. His plan is to live there in retirement but his monthly tax bill is higher than my yearly mortgage payment. I keep telling him to sell and move to flyover country where he could afford a literal mansion and have no problem with taxes. But his wife refuses to leave her family in the Bay Area.

  12. Rick Hellewell says:

    I note that today is Jerry’s 85th birthday. He never wrote much about his own birthday, other than to acknowledge well-wishers.

    But I did find a post with a list of his recommended books, so reposted that here.

    Although that post is 12 years old, the list might be interesting to some.

  13. lynn says:

    “Failed Prognostications of Climate Alarm”
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/08/07/failed-prognostications-of-climate-alarm/

    ““If the current pace of the buildup of these gases continues, the effect is likely to be a warming of 3 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit [between now and] the year 2025 to 2050…. The rise in global temperature is predicted to … caus[e] sea levels to rise by one to four feet by the middle of the next century.””
    “— Philip Shabecoff, “Global Warming Has Begun.” New York Times, June 24, 1988.”

    “It has been 30 years since the alarm bell was sounded for manmade global warming caused by modern industrial society. And predictions made on that day—and ever since—continue to be falsified in the real world.”

    “The predictions made by climate scientist James Hansen and Michael Oppenheimer back in 1988—and reported as model projected by journalist Philip Shabecoff—constitute yet another exaggerated Malthusian scare, joining those of the population bomb (Paul Ehrlich), resource exhaustion (Club of Rome), Peak Oil (M. King Hubbert), and global cooling (John Holdren).”

    “Consider the opening global warming salvo (quoted above). Dire predictions of global warming and sea-level rise are well on their way to being falsified—and by a lot, not a little. Meanwhile, a CO2-led global greening has occurred, and climate-related deaths have plummeted as industrialization and prosperity have overcome statism in many areas of the world.”

    “Take the mid-point of the above’s predicted warming, six degrees. At the thirty-year mark, how is it looking? The increase is about one degree—and largely holding (the much-discussed “pause” or “warming hiatus”). And remember, the world has naturally warmed since the end of the Little Ice Age to the present, a good thing if climate economists are to be believed.”

    The problem here is that the chicken little crowd is making money from the various governments around the world for their failed prognostications. That must stop now, at least here in the USA.

  14. lynn says:

    This year I received a “elderly” reduction in property taxes. My yearly taxes dropped 48% to $397 on a decent $210K, 4 bedroom, 3 bath home here in northern Mississippi. Across the line in TN, property taxes are much higher but they don’t have an income tax there so Mississippi is better for retirees.
    In Oklahoma where I have my rentals, taxes on a $80K home will run about $800 a year which I consider high.

    My 4 bedroom, 4 bathroom house with a swimming pool and spa in the Land of Sugar is valued at $437,300. The property taxes will probably be $9,500 this year (about 2.2% of the value). But, we do not have a income tax in Texas. Yet.

  15. Greg Norton says:

    Elon Musk twittered that he is considering taking Tesla private at $420/share. Funding is secured.

    I wonder if he got legal advice on that twitter ? That stuff is actionable.

    What? Elon is a real life Tony Stark!

    A lot of powerful people and institutions are long that stock, and they thought they would be counting Apple’s money before now. I’m wondering who will loan Musk the cash, however. He will have to come up with a legitimate source of funding soon or, yes, the lawsuits will start.

    Toyota made money putting together cars in that building. I’m confident they will do so again in the near future.

  16. Chad says:

    Elon Musk twittered that he is considering taking Tesla private at $420/share. Funding is secured.

    Tweeted. The verb is tweeted. If a millennial hears you they may implode.

  17. lynn says:

    A lot of powerful people and institutions are long that stock, and they thought they would be counting Apple’s money before now. I’m wondering who will loan Musk the cash, however.

    The Saudis apparently bought just under 5% of Tesla yesterday.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/saudi-sovereign-fund-pif-bought-below-5-percent-172302768–sector.html

    And Apple may be willing to bankroll Tesla going private with “considerations”.

  18. lynn says:

    Tweeted. The verb is tweeted. If a millennial hears you they may implode.

    Noted. Will forget again though. And imploding millennials brings a smile to my face.

  19. Greg Norton says:

    And Apple may be willing to bankroll Tesla going private with “considerations”.

    Apple knows better. Tim Cook got the details from Chris Lattner.

    The Apple shareholders already want the dividend increased. Loaning money to Tesla may make them litigious. As a holder of AAPL, if it blows up, I’d sign on to a class action regardless of how much money is actually recovered.

    Sigh. Maybe this is how the current bubble finally pops. The problem is that most of our 401(k), IRA, and pension accounts are tied to these utopian fantasies coming to pass.

  20. Greg Norton says:

    Elon Musk twittered that he is considering taking Tesla private at $420/share. Funding is secured.

    The 420 number is making people in some circles doubt Musk was serious when he twittered/tweeted/whatever, but he is trapped now.

    My generation used to throw out 42 and 69 by reflex the same way.

    “OK wait. If you guys are really us, what number are we thinking of?”

    “69, dudes.”

    (The genius of that flick is underrated. When asked, I always tell the young’n’s that if they want to see mall culture in the mid-80s, skip the Hughes flicks and find a copy of “Bill and Ted”. Its all there — Oshmans, Orange Julius, Casual Corner, aerobics demos, the organ store … *especially* the organ store.)

  21. SteveF says:

    But this year the FBCAD figured out

    FBCAD = Feckless Bastard Cretins and Democrats? Isn’t that multiply redundant? You could have just said Democrats.

  22. lynn says:

    The 420 number is making people in some circles doubt Musk was serious when he twittered/tweeted/whatever, but he is trapped now.

    One hopes that he was not stupid enough to tweet something like that without it being true. I still wonder if it was legal.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/teslas-elon-musk-just-invited-big-lawsuit-193337579.html

  23. lynn says:

    But this year the FBCAD figured out

    FBCAD = Feckless Bastard Cretins and Democrats? Isn’t that multiply redundant? You could have just said Democrats.

    “Fort Bend Central Appraisal District”
    https://fbcad.org/

    A bunch of liars and thieves who determine what all of the property is worth in Fort Bend County, Texas for property tax purposes with no accountability whatsoever.

  24. SteveF says:

    A bunch of liars and thieves who determine what all of the property is worth in Fort Bend County, Texas for property tax purposes with no accountability whatsoever.

    It would have been quicker to type “You nailed it, Steve.”

  25. lynn says:

    A bunch of liars and thieves who determine what all of the property is worth in Fort Bend County, Texas for property tax purposes with no accountability whatsoever.

    It would have been quicker to type “You nailed it, Steve.”

    Yes but I would not have had the satisfaction of venting about crazy and uneven property appraisals.

  26. CowboySlim says:

    One hopes that he was not stupid enough to tweet something like that without it being true. I still wonder if it was legal.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/teslas-elon-musk-just-invited-big-lawsuit-193337579.html

    If tRump or Manafart would have tweetered such, it would be called illegal by MSNBC.

  27. SteveF says:

    Yes but I would not have had the satisfaction of venting about crazy and uneven property appraisals.

    Understood.

    Does anyone here have any experience or even rumor of assessment boards which were open and accountable for their assessments? So far as I know, they all claim to have a formula for determining the assessment, but the formula is not revealed and the entire operation is secretive. And grossly unbalanced.

  28. Greg Norton says:

    One hopes that he was not stupid enough to tweet something like that without it being true. I still wonder if it was legal.

    He may have been stoned. “420” certainly makes people wonder.

    That inadvertent (if that’s what it was) tweet might just bring down the whole house of cards. The shareholders have already spent that money, and options are the only way Valley employees convert their mortgages to something they can actually afford.

    Other than Apple and Berkshire, who has $70 billion cash lying around?

  29. lynn says:

    Other than Apple and Berkshire, who has $70 billion cash lying around?

    The House of Saud.

    Reputedly, $11 trillion of the $70 trillion of dark money floating around the planet is theirs.

    ADD: One wonders about the coincidence of the purchase of 4.5% of the Tesla stock one day by the House of Saud and the next day Musk says that he has the money to take the whole thing private.

  30. lynn says:

    “Sugar Land residents on edge after violent home invasions”
    https://www.khou.com/article/news/crime/sugar-land-residents-on-edge-after-violent-home-invasions/285-581155309

    “”I turned around, fell on my knees, continuing to scream at the top of my lungs, ‘Don’t shoot me! Don’t kill me! Don’t kill me!'””

    My neighbors with full length glass front doors are replacing them this week. Luckily, our front door is half glass.

  31. Greg Norton says:

    And our fearless leaders haven’t put down the shovel. They think oil prices will go back to the fat days and plan accordingly. Kicking the can down the road.

    Those fields have been going since the 70s. The stuff that’s easy to pull out of the ground must have been pulled by now. Whats left will get increasingly pricey to produce, much like Texas’ shale “miracle”

  32. lynn says:

    And our fearless leaders haven’t put down the shovel. They think oil prices will go back to the fat days and plan accordingly. Kicking the can down the road.

    Those fields have been going since the 70s. The stuff that’s easy to pull out of the ground must have been pulled by now. Whats left will get increasingly pricey to produce, much like Texas’ shale “miracle”

    Yes, the north slope oil field is getting ready to hit minimum pipeline flow which is around 500,000 bbl/day.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Alaska_Pipeline_System

    ADD: BTW, the stated cost now for fracking and directional drilling is $45/bbl. That is very cost competitive.

  33. Spook says:

    @Spook,

    The PBR box has OCT0818, but nothing on the cans.

    OK, I’ll be checking boxes in the store. If expired, I will offer two options:
    1. Allow me to take home at no charge, or
    2. I’ll notify county health agency.

    Just kidding.

    Seriously, just walk away.
    Or, would it be vandalism to stick a Post-It note on there, with
    “PAST EXPIRATION” or something?
    I’m with our late host that expiration dates are mostly bogus,
    but if a product is still on the store shelf, out of date, some thing
    or somebody stinks. It is manufacturer’s claim that it’s no longer
    good, and so on…

  34. dkreck says:

    I have 3 cases of 1 liter water bottles in my garage approaching 4 years past exp date. Are they too old to drink?

  35. Nick Flandrey says:

    Nope

  36. Nick Flandrey says:

    Safely ensconced in our hotel in the city. Spent some time with my folks. Fixed a couple of things around the house, light bulbs, loose door knobs,etc. Found several boxes of old computer magazines, 80 Micro, High Technology, TRS80 specific newsletters. Fun times.

  37. Nick Flandrey says:

    Museum tomorrow, don’t know which yet. Funny that we’re basically now on the opposite side of the lake from where we were.

    If anyone has purchased or researched one of those arm chairs that boost you out of the seat, I’d love to hear about it.

  38. Nick Flandrey says:

    And now, perchance to dream….

    N

  39. SteveF says:

    Sorry, but the only “power assist” chairs I’ve looked into are strong enough to launch someone through a wall. … Oh, stop looking at me like that. I was going to get video and then put a “best of” compilation on YouTube, and that justifies any prankish behavior.

  40. Greg Norton says:

    Found several boxes of old computer magazines, 80 Micro, High Technology, TRS80 specific newsletters

    My direct experience in the retro scene is with Commodore special interest groups, but Tandy is out there.

    The big problem with longevity in Z80 hardware is that the chip ran at higher clock rates than the 6502, and many machines had lousy designs to dissipate the heat. No one figured that geeks would want to boot a Model III 30 years later.

  41. Nick Flandrey says:

    8 bit guy on YouTube does wonders with old hardware.

    Hmmm, no one busted me for my date error. You guys getting soft?

    N

  42. lynn says:

    I have 3 cases of 1 liter water bottles in my garage approaching 4 years past exp date. Are they too old to drink?

    Are the bottles still firm ? If so, yes.

    We are now drinking the Ozarka’s at the house in the garage that I bought last November. I stopped buying new cases of Ozarka water in April since I decided we would bugout for just about anything. We are down from 120 cases of water in the garage to 58 cases now. I will buy more cases the next time they are on sale at HEB.

  43. lynn says:

    Hmmm, no one busted me for my date error. You guys getting soft?

    Yes, and old.

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