Day: June 17, 2012

Sunday, 17 June 2012

09:13 – We should have preliminary results of the Greek elections by about mid-afternoon EDT. My guess is that they’ll be inconclusive, pretty much a re-run of the last election, six weeks ago. ND will probably lead the results, with Syriza not far behind. Given the 10050-seat bonus awarded to the leading vote-getter, it’s possible that ND will be able to form a coalition government with PASOK. If that happens, it’s likely that Greece will continue to pretend to attempt to comply with the Troika’s requirements and the Troika will continue to provide funding, allowing Greece to remain in the eurozone for the time being. But it’s also very possible that no coalition government can be formed, in which case Greece will continue its rapid descent into chaos.

I hope that the elections bring an end to this farce, and that Greece crashes out of the euro and returns to the drachma. That means a decade of unimaginable suffering for the Greek people. That’s bad, but the alternative if Greek remains in the euro is unimaginable suffering for the Greek people for two or three decades. In any event, Spain and Italy will follow Greece into default, with France not far behind. Even Germany will suffer, although not to the degree that the southern tier will. That’s what inevitably happens to anyone or any country that spends lots of money that it doesn’t have.

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