Month: March 2012

Sunday, 11 March 2012

09:27 – I just canceled our Amazon Prime trial, which would have automatically been billed $79 on Tuesday. The only thing we ended up using the Prime trial for was watching four streaming episodes of Inspector Lewis that weren’t yet available on Netflix streaming. Otherwise, I found nothing we were interested in watching that wasn’t available on Netflix. The free two-day shipping wasn’t really worth much to us. It’s no problem for us to get to the $25 minimum order for free Super-Saver shipping, and we’re never in that much of a hurry. Also most of the Prime-Eligible items I looked at were available for enough less as non-Prime-eligible items, even with paying separate shipping, that the “free” shipping wasn’t really free. Finally, the one-free-ebook-a-month offer wasn’t tempting. Barbara found one the other day and asked me to get it for her. I found that I couldn’t get it on the web site. Instead, I’d have to have searched for it on and downloaded it directly to her Kindle, which is clumsy. I ended up just paying the $2.99 for it. So much for Prime.


Other than the methyl cellulose, which is still on back-order, yesterday we finished up 60 sets of all the chemicals for the biology kits. As usual, I put off the really obnoxious ones–6 molar solutions of acetic acid, ammonia, hydrochloric acid, and sodium hydroxide–until last. The first three emit strong fumes, which are difficult to avoid while filling bottles, and the last is extremely corrosive. But all those are complete now, except that Barbara will label the sodium hydroxide and seal the caps with tape today. We’ll also make up the small-parts bags for the first 30 sets today. Once we have the first 30 kits assembled and boxed up, we’ll make up the other 30 sets.

Read the comments: 0 Comments

Saturday, 10 March 2012

09:31 – Most of the news reports are celebrating Greece’s default as some kind of victory. It’s a “victory”, of course, only in the sense that the Dunkirk evacuation was a victory for Britain. The probability of chaotic default in the near term–possibly as early as next week, and almost certainly by summer–is still extremely high, and even the most optimistic observers don’t believe that this latest action has done anything to put Greece’s debt on a sustainable footing.

Almost no one believes that this default will improve matters for Greek citizens, who are doomed by this agreement to decades of extreme poverty and unimaginable suffering. The only sane action for Greece at this point is to default entirely on all of its debts, including those to the EU and IMF, and exit the euro, which almost certainly means also exiting the EU. Returning to the drachma means Greek citizens are still doomed to extreme poverty and unimaginable suffering, but only for perhaps 10 years rather than the 30 or 40 years under the current agreement. Greece must understand that the EU has already written it off, and simply doesn’t care what that means for Greece or Greeks.


Today will be a routine Saturday. I’ll do laundry, and we’ll work on the biology kits.

Read the comments: 1 Comments

Friday, 9 March 2012

09:56 – This weekend, we’ll get started on building the restricted chemicals and small parts subassemblies for the biology kits, 60 sets of each. We may also make up 60 sets of the unrestricted chemicals, although one of those is still missing and will be until the backordered methyl cellulose arrives. The following weekend, assuming the methyl cellulose has arrived, we’ll start assembling full kits, probably two or three dozen to start with. There are already people on the waiting list, and I want to get those orders filled before the book hits the stores.


As expected, Greece has formally defaulted by announcing its intention to enforce the so-called Collective Action Clauses that it retroactively inserted in its debt contracts last month. The bad news for Greece is that, even after triggering the CACs, they’ve still come up at least $4 billion short of the Troika requirements for approving the new bailout. That means that, unless the Troika changes the rules that they’ve repeatedly insisted will not be changed, the new bailout will not be approved. Right now, I’m sure there’s a lot of scrambling going on behind the scenes to somehow get everything approved, but it’s by no means a done deal. Eleven days from now, Greece may or may not have the money it needs to redeem the $18 billion or so of debt that matures that day.

Read the comments: 43 Comments

Thursday, 8 March 2012

07:58 – I just got email from our production editor at O’Reilly/MAKE about the schedule for the biology book. Next week, 3/12 through 3/16, is devoted to the QC1 pass. That’s where they send us a PDF of the book in final form so that we can make any last-minute edits. At this point, any such edits should be very minor–correcting typos and so on–and we really hope that no changes are needed that would affect pagination. It generally takes me two or three days to complete this pass. Then, on the 19th through the 21st, I’ll be reviewing the index. For some reason, that’s always difficult for me. I can never think of anything to add. Of course, that’s probably because O’Reilly uses very good indexers. Then, on the 22nd and 23rd, we do the QC2 pass, which is reviewing what we really hope is the final camera-ready PDF. If any changes are needed in this pass, we really, really hope they’re extremely minor. Then we have the final index review on the 27th and 28th, followed by the book going to the printer on 6 April.

UPS showed up yesterday with 2,200 15 mL bottles and the screw caps to fit them. It looks like they’ll work fine, but I’ll do some testing on them to make sure. That means filling several of them with water, capping them and taping the caps, and then tossing a bag of them into the clothes dryer on medium and tumbling them for half an hour or so. If they survive that with no leakage, we’ll assume they’ll also survive shipping without leakage.

Work continues on the re-write of the forensics book to adapt it to a custom kit.


14:50 – Here’s the quote of day, from French President Nicolas Sarkozy: “The economic crisis is still with us, but I think we can say that we have surmounted the financial crisis. The euro is still here. Who would have bet on that four years ago?”

Four years ago? Four years ago, neither Sarkozy nor any of the other eurozone leaders even understood there was a problem. And, until now, they’ve all denied repeatedly that the euro was under existential threat. Now, Sarkozy appears to be saying that for the last four years everyone has believed that the euro was doomed, but now that threat is gone. Geez. As Buffy would say, his logic is not Earth logic.

Meanwhile, regardless of how the Greek debt swap proceeds with the final deadline coming up in about 10 minutes, Greece has already announced it is defaulting. Not “selective default”. Not “partial default”. Not “organized default”. Default default. Greece announced that there are only two choices for its creditors: (a) accept the write-down of 75% in NPV terms, or (b) get nothing. That’s a default by anyone’s definition, no matter what kind of lipstick Greece, the IIF, the ECB, and the IMF try to put on that pig.

And at this point it’s difficult to see how Greece can meet the Troika requirements for approving the new bailout. Even if the Troika chooses to reduce the requirements, and it’s difficult to see how that would be possible politically, the assumptions about who is paying how much are going to bite them in the ass. EU politicians are working on the assumption that the IMF will kick in a third of the required funds, and the IMF has already said it’s not going to do that. The IMF may kick in 10% of the nominal requirements, if that. And the nominal requirements are entirely inadequate. That means the EU is going to have to come up with a lot more money. That, of course, means that Germany is going to have to come up with most of that additional money, and it’s clear that Germany simply isn’t going to do that. So Greece is going down the tubes, one way or another, no matter what happens with the debt swap.

Read the comments: 47 Comments

Wednesday, 7 March 2012

08:18 – Barring a miracle, it looks like Romney will take on Obama in November. Paul never had any real chance, and he knew it. Romney is a horrible choice, but at least he’s not as bad as the contemptible Gingrich. And neither of them are remotely as bad as the Ayatollah Santorum. If I were forced to choose between Obama and Santorum, I’d vote for Obama. What has the American electorate done to deserve only choices like these?


Paul Jones has a new toy. “Bought a Coronado PST in preparation for the transit (and, just ’cause). Here is a shot from this morning.  -Paul”

The Coronado PST is a small telescope that’s specialized for Solar observation. It blocks all of the light except the H-α wavelength, revealing details that are otherwise invisible. The transit Paul refers to is the transit of Venus across the Solar disk. Venus transits occur in pairs separated by eight years. The last was on 8 June 2004. We tried to observe that one, but were clouded out despite chasing it across two states. The next is on 6 June this year. Paul hopes to view that one, because the next one won’t occur until he’s 146 years old.


12:21 – Well, for anyone who’s keeping tabs on the Greek “voluntary” debt swap, with only about 24 hours left until the deadline we’re currently at 40.8% of the eligible debt being held by those who have approved the deal. The absolute minimum required is 66%. Less than that, and Greece won’t go ahead with the deal, which means a catastrophic default on 20 March. If holders of between 66% and 90% agree to the deal, Greece will enforce its so-called Collective Action Clauses to force all holders to accept the deal. Once again, that means catastrophic default. Only if more than 90% of debt holders agree will things proceed without the CACs being triggered. It’s unclear at this point what would happen to the < 10% of debt held by hold-outs. In theory, Greece could avoid formal default by paying off those bonds at face value, but the chances of that happening (or of the 90% level being reached) is so close to zero as not to matter. The real bitch is that even if the 90% level is reached, it's still insufficient to meet the terms required for the bailout to proceed. So, no matter what happens, Greece is going to default, one way or another. The next few weeks are going to be exciting.

Read the comments: 21 Comments

Tuesday, 6 March 2012

08:44 – This is crunch week for Greece, with Thursday the deadline for the “voluntary” debt-swap, in which it is hoped that private investors will agree to take a so-called voluntary write-down of about 75% in net present value terms. If those private sector investors who hold at least 2/3 of the outstanding debt do not agree to the terms, it’s game over immediately. Greece enters a disorderly default and the whole house of cards collapses. If more than 2/3 agree but not all of them, Greece has announced that it will enforce so-called collective-action clauses, which in effect force the hold-outs to comply against their will. If the CACs are triggered, Greece again defaults, and the whole house of cards collapses.

Germany is convinced, wrongly, that the mechanisms in place will prevent a Greek default from spreading to the rest of the periphery. When Greece defaults, the markets will immediately focus on the remaining weak euro members, starting with Ireland and Portugal and quickly spreading to Spain and Italy and eventually Belgium and France. Once that ball starts rolling down the hill, there’s simply no way to stop it. The other southern-tier euro nations will begin toppling like dominoes. Even if Germany were willing to beggar itself, it couldn’t stop the collapse.

In the Netherlands, politicians are now seriously discussing abandoning the euro and returning to the guilder. You can bet that similar discussions are going on behind the scenes in Germany, Finland, and the other northern-tier nations as well. Short of a miracle of biblical proportions, the euro is toast.


After making up the chemicals for the first batch of 60 biology kits, we’ve started to run short of bottles, particularly the 15 mL ones. I ordered a couple cases of the 15 mL bottles yesterday, this time from a supplier that carries US-made bottles rather than the Chinese-made bottles we had been using. The US bottles are a few cents each more expensive, but they’ll arrive tomorrow. Lead time on the Chinese bottles is 60 to 90 days, which is simply too long a window to allow us to manage inventory efficiently.

Rather than dropper tips and caps for the new bottles, I ordered standard ribbed PE-lined PP screw caps. The dropper tips have only one real advantage, and that’s when a chemical is normally dispensed drop-wise. Otherwise, a standard cap is more convenient. We may end up using a combination of dropper tips and standard caps in later batches of the kits, using the dropper tips for chemicals like pH indicators. Or we may just use standard caps on all of them. Another advantage to using standard caps is that they’re less likely to leak during shipping. We haven’t had a big problem with that, but it has happened a couple of times despite our efforts to secure and seal the caps.

Read the comments: 14 Comments

Monday, 5 March 2012

09:36 – Heads-down work on the forensics book this week. We’ve gone about as far as we can on the biology kits until the last couple items arrive. Once that happens, we’ll be ready to assemble the first batch of 60 biology kits, some of which are already spoken for. I’m also preparing follow-on purchase orders, so that if necessary I can be ready to drop those immediately.

At this point, we’re thinking about doing several different forensics kits, one overall kit that includes the specialty materials needed for all of the lab sessions in the book, and several smaller kits that focus on specific aspects, such as a fingerprinting kit, a blood-testing kit, a forensic drug testing kit, and so on. We may also offer those special forensics kits as classroom kits, with sufficient materials for, say, 30 students working in groups of three. Doing that raises shipping issues because of the larger amounts of hazardous chemicals included. Rather than being able to ship air under the Section 173.4 small-quantity exemption, we’d have to ship ground under ORM-D regulations. But all that is a long way off.


Read the comments: 30 Comments

Sunday, 4 March 2012

16:26 – Barbara cleaned house this morning and then we made a Costco run sans Paul and Mary. Otherwise, we’ve pretty much taken the day off.


Read the comments: 2 Comments

Saturday, 3 March 2012

08:36 – We’ve been married almost 30 years, but I can still get her. Every Saturday, I do four or five loads of laundry: Barbara’s special load (work clothes and other stuff that has to be washed in cold water on gentle); regular darks; regular whites; towels; and often bedding. Sometimes I have extra loads, such as lab towels or dog towels.

Barbara worked only three days this week, so her special load was pretty small. When she noticed it was missing, she said I needn’t have done it this week since there was so little in there. Not to worry, I told her. I filled out that load with lab towels. I received the patented female steely-eyed stare and “you’d better be kidding” in response.


We’ll be working today and tomorrow on filling, capping, and labeling bottles. In addition to 60 sets for the first batch of biology kits, we’ll also make up 30 more sets of those chemicals that are in both the biology and chemistry kits. We’d do 60 more sets for the chemistry kits, but I’m afraid we’d run short of bottles and end up with 60 sets of some of the chemicals for the chemistry kits and zero sets of others.

Read the comments: 19 Comments

Friday, 2 March 2012

08:11 – Until yesterday, we were missing two of the chemicals that will be included in the biology kits. One of those, methyl cellulose, is still on order. The other, four pounds (1.8 kilos) of dipotassium hydrogen phosphate, showed up yesterday. I used it to make up 8 liters of fertilizer concentrate part A, enough for 60+ kits. Although the stuff is fertilizer-grade, it looked quite pure, white crystals that resembled table salt or sugar. I was surprised that it dissolved to form a pretty pale blue solution.


Read the comments: 34 Comments
// ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- // end of file archive.php // -------------------------------------------------------------------------------