Sunday, 7 August 2011

08:53 – Mainstream European newspapers are now starting to talk about the collapse of the Euro and the breakup of the EU, not just as a possibility but as something that’s likely to occur. Of course, their timeframe is wildly optimistic. I just read one article that quoted an economist as saying he estimated only a 20% likelihood that the Euro (and therefore, inevitably, the EU itself) would last in its present form for 10 years. Ten years? Give me a break. I’d estimate there’s only a 20% probability that the Euro will last in its current form for the next 90 days, and maybe a 1% probability it’ll still be around at the end of the year. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Euro and the EU crashed by the end of this month.

Many people disagreed with me that Germany will return to the Deutschmark, or something very like it, but I still think that’s almost certain to happen. Or, if Germany decides not to go it alone, it may form a new union with Austria, Holland, Luxembourg, and Finland. I think that’s less likely than Germany going it alone, if only because Germany is now well aware of the extreme hazards of a currency union without a political union and a fiscal union, and those are not things Germans are likely to tolerate.


Work on building more chemistry kits continues. I’m filling, capping, and sealing containers and Barbara is labeling them. She can do that about twice as fast as I can do my part, so I try to get a backlog built up while she’s doing other things.