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Tues. June 1, 2021 – Summer. Is this the summer of our discontent?

According to the national forecast we are right on the edge of a system, in two directions, and there is a front lined up on Houston too. Which all means that any small variation in any direction and we are outside the predicted rainstorm area. Or we could be deeper inside of it. I’m betting on being outside of the storm area though as that’s what usually happens when we’re close to the edge. Yesterday stayed nice all day. Cooler and part sun, nice in the shade, a great day to be outside. I was the only one in my family to take advantage of it.

Stayed home for the holy day. I am increasingly uncomfortable with the festive atmosphere, even though I know that after the remembrance comes the celebration…which I suppose is why the flags are at half staff until noon, then return to full for the rest of the day. I say return, because half staff is where you end up after first raising the flag to the top. For most people it doesn’t matter at all, but for those who care, it matters a lot. It doesn’t take much to do it properly. In any case, I’m not in a big hurry to go out partying on Memorial Day.

My wife spent the day cleaning the house. I kept chipping away at cleaning, organizing, and doing auction stuff. I did go out and made my morning pickup. The ladies running the sale seemed embarrassed to be working, and insisted that the national auction site set the pickup rules. Someone’s an idiot, and someone should have put their foot down. Traffic was very light. It felt more like 6am than 10am although the donut store was doing a brisk business.

Today I’m starting my summer routine. I’m home with the kids while my wife goes into the office. I am going to try to be a bit more structured this summer than last. One thing I’d really like is dedicated time with each child to do something physical, or at least with physical stuff. I’m thinking craft and handiwork mainly, but also stuff like flying the drones and launching the model rockets, or just flying the kites. I guess we’ll play it by ear and see how we all like it.

Dropping them at the pool in the afternoon should give me the free time I need to do auction stuff, but I don’t know when I’ll find time to get over to my secondary location to continue cleaning it out. So much to do, and very little progress in the last month.

Speaking of much to do, I need to do a grocery order today. I like being back in the store to see what’s there and what’s on sale, but I can make better use of the time ordering for delivery, and I don’t have to drag the kids along. My fresh grocery inventory has fallen lower than I’m comfortable with, and I’d have restocked on Friday if the stores weren’t crowded with people shopping for the weekend. Three days delay, and I’m getting anxious. That’s despite having more food in stock than some small Quik-E-Marts.*

Some people have more guns and ammo than the local National Guard Armory, I like to have food stacked.

Which brings this to a close, with my customary admonition… find what you need, and keep stacking it.

nick

*only a small exaggeration for effect, in reality I have more than most people, but not as much as I’d like.

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Fri. May 28, 2021 – schooooool’s out for suuuuuummmmer…..

Possibility of rain here in the Bayou city, but otherwise, the same as yesterday, hot and humid, with some sun.

Did a bunch of stuff yesterday, some of it moving my goals along. I’ve found that my auctioneers are very busy and the best way to get them to talk with me and do things for me is to talk to them in person by showing up at their office. Most of them treat their phones like you’d treat a rattlesnake, something I’m seeing in more and more people. Meatspace is becoming increasingly important.

One of the lots I picked up was a bunch of medical supplies. They had hand written unit designations that made it look like an army medic took his bag with him when he went home. Of course most of it is probably out of date but that doesn’t worry me much, it’s stuff that would only be used in extremis anyway, or stuff that doesn’t age out. There are some interesting things out there, if you are lucky and paying attention. Hibid.com is nationwide and is the platform that most of the auctions I patronize are listed on, if you want to check out the ‘scene’.

I’m a big fan of the ‘secondary’ market and believe that it’s the future, at least for a while yet. Retail and the way people acquire goods and services are going through a change, along with everything else in our day to day lives. Part of that change is the rise of resellers, and person to person selling. It’s actually a bit worrying for me, as one common element of life in any third world shitehole is the proliferation of street vendors and unofficial marketplaces. I see it growing in the areas around my neighborhood, I see it around my secondary location. Not a good sign in my estimation. (Flip the script- can YOU become one of those vendors? You might have to if things degrade that much.)

You may want to get some practice in the new marketplace, just like you need practice in any endeavor. Observe, pay attention, do what the others there already are doing. Do they haggle? Do they expect some chat in addition to the transaction? Do they expect a bag or box for their purchases? Is cash king? (it may not be, there are a lot of phone based person to person payment systems, and the “unbanked” seem to be using them.) One other thing, are the buyers using coins? I’d argue that if they are, you should be too, otherwise you’ll be marked as “rich” because you aren’t counting every penny.

As an aside, I’ve noticed that in some cultures, the females will be doing the shopping, handling the money, but there is a watchful male with them. He’s really in charge, but apparently can’t be bothered to actually do the ‘little things’. I hate seeing that for cultural reasons, or rather, the destruction of OUR culture reasons. If you’re male, and you are in that sort of a marketplace, you are going to stand out if you don’t have a female to do those things for you. (and yes, I’m talking about the US, in thrift stores, the Goodwill Outlet, and swapmeets and yard sales. We are losing.)

During conflicts the ‘outsider’ is always suspect. Start paying attention and realize that you might be the outsider, even in your own home town. How do you dress, move, comport yourself? It may be to your advantage to be obviously ‘foreign’ as people won’t expect you to know the unwritten rules, as long as things are ‘normal’. But if the mood shifts, or violence is in the offing, you want to disappear, blend, fade to grey. Pay attention now. Start learning** while it’s not a matter of life or death.*

And build up those stacks, so you don’t have to venture into danger unnecessarily.

nick

(* equally true for rural or city areas that are nominally part of our culture. You show up at the Quik E Mart in rural America with a problem, and you will get a lot more help if you are “might be one of us” rather than “f’ing rich city boy”, and the same is true in NYFC. You should be able to fit in enough that you are in the ‘provisionally not a threat/outsider/unknown’ category rather than ‘you’re not from around here are you, boy?’*)

(** for practice, there are usually farmer’s markets on weekends, and there are always ethnic stores, even quite large grocery stores. Every city has a swap meet, maybe only one weekend a month, but usually every weekend. You’ll know if you venture too far off the beaten path. The interrupted conversations, the guarded looks, the people who suddenly leave are all good indicators that you are recognized as an outsider and a (possibly dangerous) unknown***. There are a different set of markers when you are recognized as an outsider and you are tagged as “prey”. In that case, you don’t want to stick around, and it would be a great time to have a reason for being there, like “Can I speak to the owner? I’m from the local agency and we’re doing outreach with local businesses… oh, he’s not here?? Thanks, I’ll check back later.”**)

(***for examples, you can watch xiaomaNYC on youtube, and pay attention when he goes into an area or a business where he sticks out, and then note the change when he gives them a REASON why he’s there “I’m learning pashtun and I am out practicing my speaking skills”.***)

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Wed. May 26, 2021 – more stuff to do, more rain forecast

Same weather forecast as yesterday. Rain for parts of Houston, hot and humid. Although, for us mid 80s really isn’t “hot”. Yesterday as I drove all over the Houston metro area and even some rural areas north of town, I could see the storm cells in the distance all around, and I drove through enough to know that almost everyone got some rain. Today should be the same and that’s a bit of an issue because the ground is saturated. The bayous are filling up, and we’re going to see flooding soon.

One of my errands yesterday was a Costco run. Picked up the usual things, but also some extensions to my stores. Grabbed another 50# of rice, at 32c/pound. Didn’t get much meat. They were completely out of spiral sliced ham. No lamb at all. Usually they have roasts, chops, and ribs. I got one package of chicken thighs for the freezer and one package of their “master carved” ham. Beef was all more expensive than I was ready to pay. I can still get it on sale, but if we go a couple of weeks without a sale, I might have to ratchet my ‘base’ ‘willing to buy’ price up another notch. Pork wasn’t cheap, and I decided that Costco pork was just too lean for me so I don’t usually buy it there anyway.

All of the canned veg that I noticed was national brands. Our Costco had substituted the Kirkland brand for all veg pre-wuflu, but it was all back to the big brands yesterday. Don’t know if that is indicative of anything bigger, or just what they could get into the store.

They did have Mountain House Freeze Dried in the “Adventure Pack” boxes. I picked up another. They are heavy on breakfast and lunch, so not a great deal, but very convenient and light and FDs should have a place in everyone’s preps.

During one of my pickups I chatted with the auctioneer about prices and buyers. He agrees with me that more people are taking advantage of the resale auctions to save money on everyday purchases. He worries too that they will eventually run out of money for anything other than daily necessities, and his sale item mix is heavily weighted toward discretionary items. Prices in general are a bit lower this week than last on discretionary items. Could be falling demand showing up. (Buyers new to the auctions are generally excited by the low prices and buy a bunch of stuff. That tapers off over time. We’re seeing a bunch of new buyers which might be propping up prices.) Food for thought.

Today I’m supposed to finally be dropping off some small amount of stuff with one of the local auctions. I might still get a chance to drop off more later. The auctioneers are all crazy busy and are mixing estate sales in with resale items, or mixing resale in with estates. In other words, they are all jumping at every dollar they can, and they are scrambling to keep up with demand, and trying different things to find stuff that will sell well.

My un-paid-for pokemon cards will get relisted in a new sale, and I’m adding vintage hot wheels and some other smalls while I have the chance. She doesn’t want another 10 bins of stuff from me yet despite telling me initially that she’d take as much as I could bring. Any is better than none though.

It feels like the window to sell off unwanted stuff is closing. And that’s bad.

If you haven’t figured out an inflation hedge, you should take another look at that. Everyone is noticing that prices are up. Physical gold in large amounts? If you can swing it, you might want to… just saying. Half a year’s expenses in gold might make all the difference in getting through whatever is coming. I am not so sure about half a year in cash, and even less sure about money in ‘investments’. I remember my money market account being locked up for two years when it ‘broke the buck’ in 2008, until they decided what to do. Very few people can call the top of a market successfully, but we all know that history hasn’t been eliminated, and what can’t go on forever, won’t. I’ve been ringing that bell for a while, but … I’ve lived the conviction too. Caution should be your watchword, greed should be your nemesis.

And stacks will help, no matter what.

nick

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Sun. May 23, 2021 – another week without SHTF, hooray!

Warm and wet, possibility of rain, probability of hot. Maybe some sun. Saturday was that way with parts of town getting a lot of rain, some none, and some a few showers.

I ran my errands,and the details are in yesterday’s comments. The best news was that I caught up with one of the local auctioneers and he’ll take more of my stuff next week.

I made a couple of good finds this week at the thrift stores, and while recounting the tale, it occurred to me that there is a bit of universal truth in the story. I make money, or live better on less, or score some great preps by RECOGNIZING or SEEING something the other guy didn’t. That is the universal truth- that by training yourself to recognize or see a particular thing, you will succeed where another fails.

Some people have been trained by their life experiences to see and avoid predators. Some to see and seize on financial opportunities. Some to see prey and victimize others. Cops are trained to see the crime. Prospectors learn to see the raw ore in the rock, and foragers train their eyes to see the mushrooms or the ginseng under a log or a leaf. People that handle a lot of cash often develop a great sensitivity and spot fakes that other people might not. Proofreaders and copy editors spot mistakes with the written word. In every endeavor, from sports to hunting,from crime fighting to committing criminal acts, people learn to see what others don’t.

The message for preppers is both simple and hard. You can learn to be more successful at every aspect of your life. Usually it takes a lot of experience and a lot of hard knocks, before you see what others don’t. Sometimes, you don’t even know that you are consciously doing it, and a good teacher or coach can draw that out, so you can expand on it and explain to someone else what you are doing, and learn to do it that much better. And that leads to the hard part. You need to practice, and you need to train, and you need feedback and coaching to shortcut the otherwise long and hard won knowledge.

Fortunately, the easier part is that there are more opportunities for learning, training, and coaching than there ever have been. Youtube (even though politically they are the enemy) hosts an astounding number of creators sharing the things they have learned the hard way. From gardening to self defense, small engine repair or electronics repair to leather working, from thrifting to crafting, sewing to welding, there is someone out there teaching you to spot the differences and see the things other people are missing.

Of course, if there is someone willing to have you learn from them in meatspace, you should do that too.

Take advantage of the time and resources available to increase your skills, no matter what they are, and to expand your abilities. It’s a lot cheaper to stack skills than 556 at this point in time too, so level up some skills, WHILE you keep stacking more stuff.

nick

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Thur. May 20, 2021 – slow progress is still progress

Rained all day Wednesday, mostly light drizzle with occasional heavier and lighter moments. Today will probably be similar, with temps in the high 60s or low 70s and more rain. I have plenty to do indoors…

Which is where I spent yesterday. I got a bit more cleaning and organizing done, and sorted paper for a couple hours. I should be able to power through the tabulating and aggregating that I need to do to get the taxes done.

I spent the evening watching a bunch of auctions close, including my “industrial” guy, with several of my lots listed. I was worried about the description on the lots that I was counting on to bring in the most money, but the buyers were smarter than I thought and it was fine. Everything else brought minimal money though. I am definitely seeing lower prices in the auctions now. SOME items, notably store returns and damaged packaging, are doing well, but the normal ‘estate’ stuff and ‘surplus’ stuff is very cheap. Had a chat with one seller and he thinks more people are discovering the auctions and are buying for their own use. It was mainly resellers for a long time. Buying for yourself, you can afford to pay more than a reseller, who has to make money on the item when HE sells it.

The resellers will have to shift gears or find a new supply in order to stay in business if retail buyers keep driving up the prices. I’ve seen it before in the surplus auctions. New money comes in, prices go up, because they are still far below retail and the new money thinks they are great, but eventually the new money stops buying or learns what the price SHOULD be, ie. lower.

The exceptions to the low prices are anything gun related or precious metal related. If it’s been in short supply, the auctions are satisfying the demand with some supply, and people are willing to pay for the privilege. Although I have to say, while there is still some oddball ammo showing up, and it sells well, there isn’t as much as last month. There are VERY FEW guns of any sort coming up lately.

My feeling is, more people are moving into the ‘secondary’ economy, shopping thrifts, estate/garage/yard sales, auctions, and other non-retail options. More people are moving into the ‘secondary’ economy on the sell side too, looking for a side hustle, or as a primary income source, or as just a way to feed their addiction to shopping. I’m seeing far more street vendors around my neighborhood, and in the places I drive through too. If you’ve been in a third world city, you know the ones- cheap flashy stuff to give to a date, flowers, water and sodas or “cocas”, mysterious food hanging from sticks hawked on street corners, clothes or shoes on tables in the parking lot of a closed business… and a lot more food trucks all over town. This is in addition to the used tire shops, the corner fruit stands, and the little kiosk places to do phone unlocking, card loading, vape refills, etc. All the cheap pleasures and necessities of daily life at the lower end of the economy.

We are well on our way down the slope, and yes, there IS ‘a lot of ruin’ in a country, ours especially, but absent something out of left field (benevolent aliens?), we’re on the slope, and the pace seems to be accelerating.

Think hard about what that might really mean for you, and your dependents. Then do some prepping. And stacking. Always stacking.

nick

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Tues. May 18, 2021 – let’s keep the party going, comrade.

Weather system is supposed to be all over the area, but who knows? We got a nice break in the overcast and some weird yellow-green light at sunset, so I’ve got no idea what to expect out of today.

Spent yesterday doing mostly cleaning and paperwork sorting. Did a bit of organizing in the food storage shelves. Found some popped cans that I’ll look at today, I think they were pears. I still need to do a bit more organizing and get my new can storage FIFO sections assembled. It’s always something.

Today will be more of the same. Office, paperwork, cleaning, and a couple of auction pickups too. If it’s raining, that will have some challenges. If it’s nice and dry, I’ll take the pickup truck for convenience.

I still haven’t taken a load to the estate auctioneer yet. Although he and the industrial guy both have stuff that hasn’t been listed yet, so I’m not missing a cycle, it would be nice to get some more stuff out of here. I might have to do some more ebay listings.

The other daughter has a birthday on Saturday, so I need to start getting ready for that too. She’s been surly and out of sorts lately, I’m hoping it’s just temporary, and not the start of the next phase. Summer will purely suck if it doesn’t improve. I did find some girl’s boxing gloves at the Goodwill outlet, and we spent a few minutes hitting the heavy bag the other night. It’s good exercise but not great self defense training. Still fun though and hitting things usually improves people’s outlook.

I don’t see anything changing much for the better in the last few weeks, so I’m still thinking we’re gonna have a violent summer, filled with ‘incidents’. The masks are starting to come off, literally and figuratively. Time to be like Santa and make a list of who’s been naughty and nice, while trying to stay off of other peoples’ lists.

And it’s time to gather and store resources– stuff, skills, friends. Stack them up.

nick

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Mon. May 17, 2021 – let’s get this party started

Possibly rainy and wet, with some heat and humidity tossed in. At least is was fairly cool yesterday, mainly because of the rain…

Stayed in and messed around all day. Did auction stuff mostly, then played a game with the kids before bed. Played Catan again. It’s a fun little game, and we’re still learning the ins and outs, but at this point I’d say “give it a try” if you like that sort of thing.

I won a bunch of household stuff in the weekend auctions, so I’ll be picking that stuff up all week. And doing paperwork. And listing some things, and dropping some things off for sale.

I feel stiff, but most of the soreness and infirmity has worked its way out. I bought some ice/heat therapy packs, the inversion table, and even a massage mat for my office chair to try to avoid another week of treatment or pain. May come a day when easy access to the treatment and meds I used this time isn’t available. I better practice ‘self care’ before then so I can still get help or try something else if it doesn’t work.

That is the core of prepping- see a possible problem in the future, and do what you can to ameliorate the problem now. It’s not a new idea, “a stitch in time saves nine (stitches)” and “for want of a nail the kingdom was lost” and “an ounce of prevention is better than a pound of cure” are old memes that convey the idea quite well.

Of course, there are some others that capture the human side of the equation very well like “you can lead a horse to water but you can’t make him drink” and “there’s none so deaf as those who will not hear” and even “there’s nought so queer as folks.”

Figure out what you’re missing, and stack it high.

nick

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Thur. May 13, 2021 – Friday the thirteenth is on a Thursday this month…

Cooler, but supposed to clear up. Got some misty light drizzle yesterday, with mostly overcast all day. Today the map is showing clear. It was 64F when I went to bed last night. That’s way down from where we were just a couple of days ago.

Drove across town twice, and the first trip was a total waste. The seller reneged on the auction and wouldn’t release any items to the buyers. The estate auction company was very upset, but not as much as me when they called to give me the news as I was pulling up to the pickup location. Wasted over an hour of my life and gas. No idea what the auction company and the seller will do, they had a contract. Seller thought the prices were way too low. Very strange all around.

The other pickup was parts for my daughter’s closet organizing project, and some light bulbs (really LED replacement tubes for some 8 ft fixtures I can’t get new bulbs for.)

In other selling news, the guy who bought most of my Pokemon cards hasn’t paid yet, and the auctioneer thinks he’s not gonna. She’ll go back to the second highest bidder, but they don’t have to buy at that price. The cards may end up going back into another auction. Not super news, as I was already thinking of ways to spend the money…

I tried to get a Costco Instacart order yesterday but couldn’t make the available delivery times work. I’m expecting it this morning. Limit one on Charmin Blue, and several things on my “buy it again” list were out of stock too. No meat on this purchase, it was all too expensive. I’ve got room in the freezers, but the price hasn’t been right for a while.

Oh, and the new freezer is cold, so it’s time to work on flipping that.

Tax time too, so I have the rest of my recordkeeping to finish. Back pain makes my brain sluggish though, so I’ve only been doing low value, low complexity stuff. Maybe I’ll get more done today.

I’ve certainly got stacking to do, and I’m sure you do too. Get busy.

nick

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Wed. May 5, 2021 – Culturally appropriate, or appropriate? Cinco de drunko…

Cooler and drier than yesterday, maybe. Yesterday started humid and overcast but ended breezy and clear and very nice. I’m hoping the ‘very nice’ continues today.

Spent the morning getting my truck from the dealer. Spent the early afternoon asleep. Spent the rest of the day poking at the new machine. Given that it has a computer, touch screen, and several different interface devices, and lots of settings, I’ll be reading the manual. I hate reading the manual, and if it was a rental, I’d just be cool with whatever I could figure out in 10 minutes. Since I own it, I should probably know what all that stuff does.

Ford uses a “Sync” branded system for the info and entertainment system. It does one thing I like so far, you can sync the clock to the clock on the GPS. You still have to set the hour to match your time zone, but it’s a nice feature and speaks to the integration. It has a category for apple phone integration and android. I will probably be watching some youtube vids soon. I’ve got other stuff on the agenda for today though.

Youngest child stayed home from school yesterday with coughing that improved about the same time she was sure she wouldn’t be going in. What she won’t like is getting a ‘rona test today before class. I was sympathetic, and she was coughing and miserable, but that 10% of doubt should have been more. Little faker. Or at least little exaggerator.

Today should be eaten up with errands (pickups of household stuff) and truck stuff. I’ve got to get the truck stuff done, it’s eating time I need for other things. I really want to be all back together and ready to work when my part time business partner gets the drawings done for my client’s rip and replace. That will also mean proceeding with the auctioneer that will take pallets of stuff.

It’s a whole lot easier to sit at my desk and mess around online.

Must resist… urge… must…resist…..

So time to get going. Clear the decks so I can get to stacking…

n

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Sat. April 24, 2021 – I wonder if there is a universe where unused batteries are sad that they never lived up to their potential…

Not so cool, still damp, possibly raining. Yesterday I was dodging raindrops all over town. No real storms though, that I was aware of. The most rain I saw was a hard drizzle and was very brief.

The rain I did see was while driving around the city doing pickups/dropoffs/meetings with my various local auctioneers, and then doing the airport run. Good news is that I have another auction house willing to take a bunch of stuff that I didn’t know where I was going to be able to sell it. Bad news is that I currently don’t have anywhere to stage 6-10 pallets of stuff. They will do the auction with the stuff in place so I don’t have to deliver it to them, and charge less if I do some of the work. Sounds like a deal to me.

And then I got rear ended in my Ranger. Slippery, light misty drizzle, and as I came over the hill and was forced to slow because of merging traffic slowing the whole lane, the guy behind me couldn’t stop in time. He tried to get around on the right and off to the shoulder but didn’t make it. I might have had less damage if he bumped me straight on, instead of just hitting the right corner of the bumper. The Ranger is a framed vehicle and the bumper is steel. The bumper got bent, pushing the right rear side of the bed forward, which crumpled at the wheel well. The Tail light is popped out of place but works. His little Kia lost the left headlight assembly, part of the bumper and likely the hood and quarter panel, as well as structural components in the front end. MASS wins every time.

I wasn’t even sure we were hit, because I didn’t see him behind me (he was on the shoulder I was in the lane) after the noise and movement. I bounced around a bit, not much as the speed was low. Mom got whipped around a bit more. I handed her a cold pack from the trauma bag, but she’ll be stiff and sore today. She was just feeling good after a previous back and neck injury so she’s not happy at all. The other driver had no license, insurance or english. I’ll be dealing with my insurance today. Cop said they can do most of the work needed before the official report gets through channels, in a week. That should be interesting. Slightly less damage, and alone in the car, and I might have opted to do it informally, but I need for mom to get whatever care she needs.

Hotwash, bonus points for having the ice pack and bag, minus for being caught off guard by the slowing traffic. Bonus for being insured, minus for realizing that my registration was out of date. And while it’s great that the Ranger is drive-able, and insured, it was my backup vehicle, with my primary STILL not having been replaced. I need to get it back to ‘spare’ status ASAP. Bonus, having and showing the city credential finally stopped the other driver from trying to convince me not to call the police, I told him that I was a volunteer, worked with them, and HAD to report it. Never claimed anything that I’m not, but with his limited english it surely seemed to be more than it was.

Second time in two days I had the credential out. Day before was when I gave some gear to the officers that were outside my secondary location dealing with some street guy. Since I had the stuff out (having just picked it up cheap) I thought I’d hand it out and get some karma. PD is much more likely to accept a gift, be it a set of yellow rain gear, or Girl Scout cookies, from someone that is ‘part of the family’ even if just a distant cousin… I still support the idea of Rule of Law, and the guys on the street. And if there are any benefits to be had, I’m cynical enough to want them.

Plan for today is spend time with mom and the kids, do stuff around the house. Work the list. All depending on if I hurt or not. And deal with the paperwork. Maybe I should get my registration up to date too…

Oh, and Costco has a bunch of my normal purchases on sale this week which means I should do an Instacart order so I can…………………. keep stacking!

nick

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