Category: march to war

Fri. Feb. 18, 2022 – you load 16 tons and whadda ya get???

Cold today.  Yesterday was rainy in the morning, but dried up and got hot in the afternoon. Temps  started dropping in the late afternoon and it was down to 42F at 11pm.  Wind was variable but quite gusty.  Stuff was blowing around in the yard and driveway. Today is supposed to be cold with overcast.  Joy.

Did my pickups.  Got some stuff for the BOL.   Got some stuff for this household.   Picked up a couple of small things to resell to pay for the rest and one item for my hobby.

Got stuff to donate to school.  White man’s burden?  Noblesse oblige?  Can’t call it either, but in our district they definitely expect parents with the means to step up and contribute in some way to the schools and the district in general and there isn’t a lot of diversite’ above certain income levels.   It’s not just income though, it’s free time and the ability to work at something effectively.  The loss of the fraternal service organizations and their ‘women’s auxiliary’ and the womens service clubs was a nearly fatal blow to US society and western culture.  “Moms’ Clubs” and other informal groups are stepping up, but they lack the continuity and structure of the old groups.  The transition from high trust to low trust is everywhere and increasingly common.

Stuff for the BOL is piling up.   I need to close so we can start moving stuff out of my spaces and out to the country.  Unfortunately,  unless the title company pulls their head out of their backside, I don’t think we’ll be closing on Monday.

There is the additional macroeconomic consideration too.  We transferred a bunch of money into one place, in preparation for buying the BOL.  Now Canada has gone and said they will seize bank accounts if they feel like it.   That SHOULD cause a bank run.  There is some suggestion that at least a low key bank run is happening.  A real bank run could cause widespread damage and disruption worldwide, but certainly in their largest trading partner, the US.    So, I want to get the transaction done without delay, so as to avoid getting screwed if the banks shut down.

And all of the vehicles need maintenance of some kind.  Ranger and Expy need oil changes.   Expy is going to need new front brake pads soon.  Wife’s minivan probably needs everything…  it never ends.

The house still needs all the stuff it needed a couple of months ago, with the only exception being that the water heater is installed and making hot water.   Not completely installed, or anywhere near finished, but installed.

After a month or two of feeling resigned, I feel like fighting again.   Not rested, but going back at it anyway.

I’m stacking, hopefully the right things, and you should be too.

 

N

 

(and congrats to everyone that is, Mr Lynn, Mr Atoz, and anyone else who is trying out a prep, or stacking.)

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Thur. Feb. 17, 2022 – Entropy, perversity, and tyranny — the universe must love them

Cool and damp.  Like yesterday turned out to be.  We got some rain in the morning, and misty drizzle later too.   Just enough to be grey and damp, and to make the road slippery.  It was warm long enough that I ended up turning on the A/C before bed as temps in the house crept up to 77F.  That meant 82F in my office which was just too dang hot.  We’ll see how today goes, but I need to do the pickups I didn’t do yesterday, so I’m hoping it’s not too wet.

 

I was coughing and didn’t feel great in the morning so I took a wuflu self test.  Negative again.   That’s something like 6 times I felt bad enough to test, and yet still don’t have the coof.  I’ll head to bed early as the universal remedy for sickness.

Spent most of yesterday on domestic bliss.  Did 2 loads of laundry, folded same.   Did some cleanup and putting away of stuff that’s been out for far too long.   Did some restocking of cabinets.  Then got the kid and went book shopping at the thrifts.   She bought more clothes than books, but did manage to find a half dozen.  Prices in the independent thrift store were high.   Much higher than normal.  It could be a new manager setting prices more aggressively, or it could be inflation showing up in the staff’s perception of what a good price would be.   I managed to get a couple of books, and a benchrest for shooting gubs.

Today I’ve got pickups if it’s not raining.  That will free me up to get out to my client on Friday.  Bought some stuff to donate to daughter’s school.  Wife is already donating both our time this weekend, and something they need in the theater showed up in my auction.  Funny how that happens in my life.

The world continues in its tendency toward increasing tyranny.  The latest from our neighbors to the north slid right by, with nary an objection, and might be used lightly this first time.   They always come back and use it full strength at some point though.   I’d be decreasing my cash in the bank, and increasing my valuable stuff close at hand.  No one ever thinks they’ll come for them, until it’s too late and they have.

The tendency toward increased perversity should be obvious after 10 minutes review of current pop culture.  It wasn’t that long ago that a band could sing a song based on Bible stories.   In fact many bands could do so and each could make it their own, and no one would object, and most people hearing it would already know the story.   Today the dominant pop culture celebrates drug use, violence, misogyny, obscenity, and pornography.

Our president says the smartest guy he knows is a crack head who films himself using drugs and having sex with whores, and who can’t even keep  track of his own laptop with the videos on it, as well as evidence of his other crooked deals.  The previous Democrat administration was so crooked, listing the crimes would get a novel with that plot thrown out as completely impossible fantasy.

Legal abortion, which was supposed to be ‘rare’ has killed 23 million black babies alone, by some estimates.  The social “reforms” of the 60s and 70s have destroyed the black family, destroyed the cities and black neighborhoods, and encouraged a culture of decadence and dependence that has poisoned the soul of black America instead of uplifting it.

This person is reading stories to our kids in the library, and this person is now in charge of our nuclear waste…  At least he has some background in the field, but he seems to have gotten the position “because of” not “in spite of” his clear mental illness.

 

I’m not just a grumpy old man complaining about the kids today.  This stuff that would have been unimaginable a decade ago is really happening.   And it’s being CELEBRATED.

The center cannot hold.

You and I don’t have enough preps.  Stack it up.  Keep it secret.  Keep it safe.

n

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Sun. Feb. 13, 2022 – Friday the 13th falls on a Sunday this month…

Cold again, and still damp.   I could barely walk yesterday morning.  And it was blowing to beat the band.  Today should be more of the same.

Did my stuff yesterday.   Been doing a lot of driving around so I’ve got various audio books in the vehicles to keep me interested and awake.  I am finding that I really like it, if I like the reader.   In the pickup, Frozen Heat, Richard Castle.  Melodrama in the pretend style of pretend author, spun off [or filled in?] from the TV show Castle.  Nathan Fillon in the original role, and I keep trying to hear his voice, but the reader does a good job despite not being Fillon.   It’s silly, and very much a ‘play within a play, within a play.’   Really liked the show, and I’m enjoying the silly book.  It has some easter eggs, like a cop duo named Malcom, and Reynolds and it doesn’t take itself seriously.

In the Expy, Einstein, Walter  Isaacson.  Well read, it’s a bio of Einstein along with an explanation of his ideas.  Very accessible, and I’m learning things.

Also in the Expy, when the kid is in the truck, The Magician’s Nephew, Chronicles of Narnia, CS Lewis.  Produced by Focus on the Family, it’s a dramatization and is fully produced with voice talent, sound effects, etc.   I read through the Chronicles many times, but don’t remember this one so it’s fun to hear it.  All of the discs in this set are well done, with the exception of a VERY strange vocal acting choice for Aslan.  Recommended if you liked the stories.

I ran out of the Louis Lamour stories, but I found some more of the Sherlock Holmes, and I’ve got a couple more of the Richard Castle books too.   Audiobooks on CD are cheap on ebay, and I’m really enjoying listening to them, which I really didn’t expect.  Beats the snot out of AM talk radio….

 

I’ve talked to a lot of people this week, during my errands.   Most of them thing wuflu is about over, and certainly treating it as a special ongoing disaster is D O N E done.    There is a broad awareness of coming hard times.  People see the shortages, they feel the pinch of the inflation.  Let’s Go Brandon got a return chorus from the group at my hobby club meeting when someone mentioned inflation.   There are a lot of retired technical specialists and small business owners in the group, but this is the first year there has been much mention of politics.  It’s normally a politely politics free space  focused on our common interest.   I spent about 10-15 minutes talking to one of the guys about lakehouses, rent houses, and how he’s selling stuff off and getting out of his investments.  He figures property is about as high as it’s really likely to go, and interest rates will kill it.  I’m kinda inclined to agree.  And everyone was talking about supply chain issues and scarcity impacts on construction, repair, and the economy.

 

Do your own research, draw your own conclusions, but I’m betting on “much worse before it gets better” and while I can’t pick a specific time, “soon” seems about right.   Stack all the things.   It’s gonna get sporty.

nick

 

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Sun. Feb. 6, 2022 – and yes, still winter, still.

Chilly, cold, damp, cold, hurts the hands cold.    Ice in the buckets, frost on the roofs.  I know, you’re laughing at me as you shovel the walk and driveway…  supposed to be cold again all day.   Was 29F at midnight last night.

Spent Saturday at a fifth grade basketball game.   The girls are making progress.   The coaching is very aggressive.  Elbows out, hands on the girl you’re guarding, setting picks, all kinds of pro league bad behaviour.  And the kids still can’t pass or dribble or shoot well.  D2 got two baskets and a freethrow.  They still lost.

One girl in a mask.  Couple of masked spectators.

Took child and did a couple of pickups.  Lots of driving, more than I thought looking at the map.  I got stuff for camping and for the new place, but it was a lot of driving.  No masks at pickup locations.   Chatted with the auctioneer and his wife at the second place, out in the country about an hour outside Houston.  Both had the coof.  Neither got a vax before, or after.  Very aware of alt news, inflation, shortages, and the coming war.  Stacking stuff, getting rid of cash dollars.

Dropped stuff off at my secondary then went by my rent house to see why the tenants were cold.   I suspected a fan issue, or loose duct connection in the attic, if there was a real problem.  I confirmed the problem with low air flow was a clogged up filter in the return air plenum.   They said “we changed that  a couple weeks ago” and “we usually change that every 3 months…”  but it was black, solid, and bowed up into the duct like a salad bowl… when I removed it, there was good air flow.   Problem solved.

Chatting with them, she’s preggo, and they’re looking for a house to buy.  Right on schedule as far as I can tell.    We may take the opportunity to swap out the water heater, or blow in some foam in the attic, or upgrade countertops in the kitchen when they find a place and move out.   Spent some time chatting with them as they are pretty red pilled for being so young.   They have been seeing shortages at their grocery store too, and are aware of supply chain issues.  They mocked FauxXi and are boycotting the olympic coverage.  They don’t see any reason for us to fight the Russian but are sure we will get involved anyway.  They are racing inflation to buy a house.  Pretty long and interesting talk.

 

Stopped and got take out sushi for dinner.  Youngest loves sashimi.  Not a cheap date, that one.

Wife and D1 are due back from horse camp later today, hopefully early afternoon.  I’ve got housecleaning to do before then.  So I’m off…

Stack the stuff you need.  Seriously.  It’s not getting better, it’s getting worse.  And it will get worse yet.  Stacks give you breathing room.   They give you choices.  They take the pressure off.   Yes, in normal times they can have negatives associated with them, but these aren’t normal times.   It’s long past time to be building up your reserves.

n

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Sat. Jan. 29, 2022 – Life is but a dream, shiboom shiboom…

Chilly willy today.  Supposed to be clear and breezy.  It was pretty chilly all day on Friday, and was 38F when I went to bed.

Did my pickups, did some messing around.  Auctioneer did not set a time when I could bring down some more stuff.  I did get the breakdown for my sales with his last auction.  Stuff did better than I thought and there was a lot of it that I didn’t realize was mine when I looked at the listings.   I’ll get a check next week.  The big surprise was books with a local theme.  I grabbed several last week so I’ll try to get them into an auction too.

Purchase of the lakehouse is proceeding.  The title guarantee is the next delay as they do the search.  They aren’t in any hurry.

Today’s plan, sleep in.  I’m definitely running on empty sleep wise. Then I need to get to work.

I have lost track of what’s going on in Ukraine, so if anyone can summarize below, that would be cool…

Divemedic has been posting about some radio traffic and flight tracking that makes me think that the words are just words as they pick their moment.  When that kicks off, it’s going to make some really big waves.

So stack some things.  Chances are you’ll need them.

n

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Fri. Jan. 28, 2022 – madness is….. one step beyond

Cool and damp again.  Yeah, whoddathunkit?  Got into the low 60s yesterday.  There was part sun in various places in town but predominately overcast.

Spent the morning watching various auction lots for beds and mattresses for the lakehouse.  Didn’t win any.  Then I got my pickup done.  Dropped some stuff off at my secondary, and swung by Goodwill’s Outlet store.

There are things we will need for the lakehouse.  And because of the way my life works, in one of the bins was a box for a cell phone booster.   There were actually two different ones in the bin, so I scooped up all those pieces.  I’ll know later today if all the pieces are there, and if they will work now that 3G sunsetted.  I also picked up two pieces that will pay for the rest of my full cart.  They are the rarest of vintage audio gear– black face components that are worth something on ebay.  Kenwood GE-76 and the tuner from the same line.  No power amp though I did find the instruction book for it.  You never know what you’ll  find.

Today will be a meeting with one of my auctioneers, and pickup of some medical stuff.  I’ll have to go spend some time at my storage unit, and at my secondary.   I got another two pallets ready for the pallet lot auction, but I’ve got to get at least a couple more with some more valuable stuff to fill out this first auction with them.

The purchase of the lakehouse is proceeding.   The seller kept having ‘trouble’ with her email, claiming she didn’t get our signed contract, and we thought she might be entertaining other offers without telling us.  I now think she was actually having net issues, because she’s told us that she finally has the doc and is proceeding with the escrow company, etc.  Or maybe the offers weren’t sweet enough to overcome us being first through the door…  we’re still set to close on the 21st.   The first quote for insurance was pretty freaking expensive.  I’ll have to take a few minutes and talk to them about changes and maybe we can get it down into the reasonable range.

I’m really looking forward to finally having a Bug Out Location.  It was a pretty big gap in our preps to not have anywhere specific to go if we needed to leave town.   Fixing it up, stocking it, and actually using it for weekends is going to be a ton of work, but will be satisfying too.

Should generate some blogfodder too.

Now I can stack even more things.  And you can too!

nick

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Wed. Jan. 26, 2022 – brain is empty, todo list is full…

Cool and wet. And yes, I’m getting tired of that.  I think it got up into the low 60s yesterday, it sure was damp and threatened rain all day.

Did my pickups.  Got stuff for my non-prep hobby.  Got stuff for the kids.  Got household stuff like cleaning supplies.  (that stuff adds up, saving half or more on each bottle or spray can can really save some money)

Today I’ll be doing a couple more pickups (the gub accessories, some other stuff) and maybe making some arrangements for dropping off sale stuff.    I’ve got the quarterly swap meet for my non-prep hobby coming up in Feb, and I’ve been finding stuff to add to the ‘sale’ pile for that.

It’s time for another Costco run too, but IDK if I’ll find the time this week.  Got kid stuff most nights (basketball or dog training) and my sibling is in town and wants to get together for dinner.

I need to take over driving the repairs here at this house too.  My wife is very frustrated with contractors who don’t return calls.  I’ve been letting her try to arrange the HVAC and plumbing upgrades/installs.   She’s been very “see, it isn’t hard, you just call them, meet with them, and it will get done, no problem.”  Yeah.   Except.   Then they never call back.  They don’t answer emails either.   Welcome to MY world, where it isn’t as easy as you think.   Now she’s shepherding the lake house purchase, so it’s my job to get the other stuff done all of a sudden.  Ah life, so full of chances to do stuff wrong.

So I better get busy clearing my decks, so I can do the other stuff.   I need to get back to being as productive as I was when I was working.  I’ve somehow moved so far away from that that I hardly recognize where I am.

I’m stacking up….. tasks.  And the pile gets bigger.

I prefer to stack STUFF.

n

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Tues. Jan. 25, 2022 – knowing when to pull the trigger…

Cool and wet.  Damp at a minimum.  Misty rain most of yesterday with occasional downpours depending on where you were.  Where I was it rained pretty much non-stop, just slacking for short periods.

Spent the day getting ready then driving north to look at a property.   It’s pretty much what we expected, and we’re making an offer on it.  It’ll be another house that sold “before it was ever listed.”   We only learned about it through a friend.  Meatspace and tribe came through.

I expect there will be a LOT of things to share about the process and the work.  This is intended to be a ‘weekend’ or vacation home, but will also function as a retreat if we need it.  I hate to think ‘bug out location’ because you don’t get much use from a bug out place if things go well.   It does give us somewhere to go if we need to go, and that has been a major prep that was missing from our capabilities.

It’s also supposed to be a financial move to get something real instead of a rapidly inflating currency.  Our timeline is long.  If the world somehow manages to not go to helI in the next year or two, it will be a fun place to go on summer weekends and lakefront property always finds buyers, if there are any buyers at all.

Which brings me around to the title of the post (which most of the time is an opportunity to sneak in a joke or quick hit commentary,  or is totally unrelated to the post, which is a tiny little joke in itself) and relates to CommanderZero’s post today.   How do you know when it’s time to pull the cord and bail?  ESPECIALLY when that moment hasn’t come despite looking like it was imminent any number of times, and when the consequences for NOT going can be dire.  I’ve mentioned in other contexts that ‘if you think it’s time to leave, it’s probably too late…”  And I’ve mentioned that it helps to set trigger points so that you don’t have to second guess yourself.

But specifically, how the heck can I be willing to spend the money on this place after a day, and seeing it for only a couple of hours?  Weeeeelllllll……  because we’ve done lots of thinking about it before hand.   We have been looking at lake properties for three years.   We feel like we’ve got a pretty good understanding of the current pricing and current demand.  We’ve been looking at houses for a lot longer than that, and have a lot of confidence we can evaluate the condition and potential of the property.  We had the money in place, and although we had to revisit that, another year of putting money aside for the purpose made the pot big enough, as it turned out.   It’s still a stretch, but my wife agrees that time is getting short, the money we had saved was losing value every day, and we’re not getting younger, and the kids aren’t either.

I had a similar situation with my replacement truck.  By the time this one came up, I’d looked at a lot of trucks, knew a good price when I saw it, and knew I needed to act swiftly.  The house we live in took only a few minutes to convince us this was the house for us, mainly because we’d looked at more than 60 and rejected them.

And in the case of my truck, along with our previous ALMOST purchase of the prepper retreat, we were ready to change our minds if the information or our needs changed.  The first truck I almost bought, I didn’t understand the warranty situation.  Once I did, we bailed on the deal.   With the great looking property with all the animal protein, and smokehouse, and artesian well… once we understood where the flood line was, and that the property was unbuildable for the most part, and that we wouldn’t ever be able to sit on a dock watching the sunset, we bailed.

Be ready to move when the opportunity presents itself.  But be ready to stop moving if things change, or you change.

Finally, in answer to CommanderZero’s question, when do you head for the hills and burn the bridges and boats behind you?  I’ve got a rule that none of my prepping can be irrevocable. Even if I decide to head for the hills I’m going to do my best to not burn the bridges behind me.  Because I make mistakes.  Lots of them and all the time.  And I believe that “there is ALWAYS another way.”  Searching for and finding that way made my career.    Those two things make me strongly biased against the dramatic exit…  and so far it’s worked for me.

 

The other thing that works for me is stacking up the preps, because it gives me choices.  Give yourself some, and stack up your own preps.  You know you wanna….

 

nick

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Tues. Jan. 18, 2022 – let’s get this week started…

Cool, windy, clear. 60s? Monday was all those things, getting a bit warmer in the afternoon.

Which mattered not a whit to me, as I was inside all day. Mostly I worked on modeling different remodeling options for this house. There are some that kinda make sense. I’m not sure the “move out for a year while we turn the attic into additional living space” makes sense, but for now, I’m working with it.

Lots of stuff going on in the wide world. Russia, China, and I’m sure someone else are all getting frisky. They see weakness and want to advance their own plans while they can. I think that the ‘someone else’ might be the trigger for whatever comes. Unless it’s just the continued inexorable movement toward war that finally gets there.

Pestilence, famine, war. What does Meatloaf say? “Two outta three ain’t bad.” They ain’t good either.

The need to get ready is always in tension with the inability to ‘time the market’ and be sure of WHEN you need to peak, and the need to live your life KNOWING you won’t get the timing right. Tomorrow is pretty much like today, and yesterday, most of the time, and until it isn’t. Then it’s pretty different in some really important ways, but some things will remain.

You will need to eat, drink, and keep yourself healthy. You will need to defend yourself and your stuff, probably more actively than you do now. You will still need to raise your kids, care for family members, and make a future for yourself and them. You will need to participate in whatever economy and society there is. You will probably need to do things you wouldn’t normally do. You will need to recognize when the old rules stop applying, but remember that eventually they will apply again.

One year? Two years? Five years, or ten. I don’t know, but the world will be a very different place, and not at all like yesterday, after one of those.

Stack it up. For (x+1) values of x.

n

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Wed. Jan. 12, 2022 – worse, not better. “There’s a lot of ruin in a country…”

Cool and damp again, maybe a little rain… we got just a few drops at the end of the day yesterday. The rest of the day was rain free if still damp-ish and overcast.

That meant I was able to take a load to the auctioneer. But. I loaded the truck about 3/4 of the way from one unit, and moved to the other unit, thinking that I’ll just grab the quick and easy stuff from both. Very strange. My lock is gone, and there is another lock on my unit. Office is closed on Tuesday but they agree to send a manager from a nearby storage facility, because storage companies ADD a lock to the unit if there is an issue. They don’t cut YOUR lock. There were some other ‘tells’ too. All of the company locks have a little blue sticker on them and this one didn’t. No issues with the unit were in the file, and I know I paid online…

In the mean time, I take my partial load to the auctioneer, and he freaks. This is all he wants this week. WTF? We had a long conversation, he was gonna take it all. Well, not so much. It’s possible the big boss objected or knew they had other stuff coming in. In either case, I don’t get to empty any storage,nor move much from the house.

On my way back to storage, the manager calls and will meet me there. I swing by home to get a new lock, and grab my battery grinder just in case.

Met the guy and we cut the lock. Ransacked. Robbed. Burgled actually. From the door I could see they went through most of the bins, tossing them around, and grabbing what they wanted. I haven’t disturbed the mess yet as I’m hoping for a police investigation, but I can see the golf clubs are gone, as well as a huge subwoofer, and every bit of electronics. They got at least $1000 in resell value, and that’s just what I can see at first look.

The facility manager is going to look at video for the last week. When she finds something, I’ll call the cops or the constable’s office, and try for an investigation. This is a pretty sophisticated operation. They have surely hit more than my unit as there were a LOT of units with the disc locks on them. They broke in, stripped out what they wanted, then put a lock on the door to disguise the entry. For most renters, I’m sure it would be weeks or months before the theft was discovered, and any video would be long gone.

This is the second time in as many months the one of my storage units has been broken into. In the other facility, a tenant cut locks in a hallway and entered a bunch of units. Caught on video. My unit had only networking and industrial stuff, so they didn’t steal anything. The management noticed the cut locks, and investigated. Then called me and let me know what happened. I met a real nice guy (and mentioned it here at the time) when I went to verify my stuff was still there.

I’ve been a storage unit renter for decades. Not all at once, but cumulatively, and I’ve had the ones here for a while. I’ve never had an issue before. Never heard of anyone having issues with theft, and certainly not a thief who hides the crime with his own lock. This is a big change.

Add in the other indicators. Supply chain issues and shortages. Inflation. Street violence. Political violence. Silencing opposing views. Increasingly ‘othering’ rhetoric and demonizing of opposing groups. Rule of law is collapsing. Social norms are fraying. Everything is getting worse. And I don’t see it stopping anytime soon.

Yeah I know, doom and gloom. The sky is falling. The end is near(er)… But tell me where I’m wrong. I’d love to be wrong.

Look to your personal security and physical security. Look to your personal supply chain. When you see it, buy it. And stack it high.

nick

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