Category: government

Thursday, 15 December 2011

07:56 – Over the last few years, I’ve mentioned several times that I thought China was in deep, deep trouble. People scoffed, but it’s becoming more and more obvious that I was right all along.

It’s not that I have a magic crystal ball. It’s that I understand something that appears to escape most politicians and journalists, including Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. The entire concept of Keynesian economics is fundamentally broken. Governments that make economic and financial decisions based on Keynes’ mistaken principles, which is to say nearly all governments, are doomed to suffer the consequences. Unfortunately, that also means the rest of us are also doomed to suffer those consequences. If only they’d listened to Hayek instead. We wouldn’t have $15 trillion in debt and there’d be no eurozone crisis. In fact, there’d be no eurozone.


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Tuesday, 13 December 2011

07:56 – EU officials announced yesterday that they would make Britain suffer for vetoing their planned power grab. “Nice little financial services sector you have there. Be a shame to see anything happen to it…” Meanwhile, the markets are treating the results of that failed summit last week with the contempt they deserve, and the ratings agencies have said outright that nothing significant was decided at that summit, so they plan to go on with their review and likely ratings downgrades. And yields on Italian and Spanish bonds have again climbed into the unsustainable range after only a couple days in the sub-6% range. Merkozy must be getting very frustrated that nothing they do fools the market into doing what they want it to do.

Work continues on the biology book, and stuff for the kits is starting to arrive. I now have a good supply of carrot seeds for one lab session and of lima bean seeds and rhizobium innoculum for another, probably enough of each for 100 to 200 kits. That was the last of what I needed for the biology kits. Once I finish writing the book, I’ll put together the first batch of biology kits, probably only a dozen or two to start. That’ll let me work out packaging, subassemblies, assembly order, and so on. Then I’ll go to work on the forensics kit and manual.


11:28 – Now here’s an interesting site. It’s currently tracking about 53 million users, 113,000+ torrents, and about 2 million files totaling more than 106 TB. Alas, when I visited the site, the only thing it could tell me about my own torrent usage was: “Hi. We have no records on you.”

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Saturday, 10 December 2011

09:22 – Well, this latest summit was widely considered to be the last chance to save the EU and the euro. Instead of concentrating on the immediate crisis and coming up with measures to address it, the participants focused on how to avoid future crises, doing essentially nothing to deal with the current mess. They fooled no one, nor was their attempt to make the UK the scapegoat successful.

Nor was there any sign of their so-called “big bazooka”. I was about to say “stupidly-named big bazooka”, but in fact it’s well-named when you think about it. Ordinarily in a situation like this, people talk about bringing out “the artillery”, crew-served weapons that fire large and effective charges. A bazooka was a personal weapon that fired a small and usually ineffective charge, which makes the comparison exact with what the EU had done to date. They’ve essentially lined up to piss on a 5-alarm fire, and nothing decided at this most recent summit changes that.


One of the reasons we redesigned the latest batch of chemistry kits was to allow them to fit into a USPS priority mail large regional-rate box rather than the priority mail large flat-rate box we’d been using. The large regional-rate box is just enough smaller than the large flat-rate box that the earlier version of the kit wouldn’t fit.

The upside to the change is that we expected it to reduce shipping costs. The large flat-rate box costs $14.95 to ship anywhere in the US, including Alaska and Hawaii. The large regional-rate box costs anything from $5.81 to $14.62, depending on the destination.

So, yesterday I drove out to the post office to mail the first batch of the kits in regional-rate boxes. When I got to the counter, the guy told me that the USPS didn’t offer counter service for regional-rate boxes. He could still ship them, but he’d have to charge me standard priority mail rates according to the weights and destinations of the boxes. If I wanted the regional-rate postage rates, I had to generate the label on-line with postage. Crap. I’d never been able to get the USPS Click-N-Ship web site to produce a label. When I tried to produce a test label, the site just went into an endless loop.

After he weighed the boxes and told me the postage cost for each, I told him I didn’t have any alternative, so to go ahead and ship them. The postage costs were all over the place, but all were higher than they would have been for regional-rate. For example, one box going to Pennsylvania would have been $6.88 under regional-rate postage but ended up costing $10.95 under standard priority mail rates. Another, going to New Jersey, would have been $8.06 regional rate, but cost $12.40 at standard PM rates. Another, going to New Hampshire, would have been $10.51 regional rate, but ended up costing $17.45, which is actually more than the large flat-rate box would have cost. And so on.

I drove home fuming, because I’d seen nothing anywhere on the USPS site that mentioned that local post offices don’t accept regional-rate boxes at regional-rate postage rates. So I spent a while looking around the USPS site, and finally found one place where it does mention that. Otherwise, I’d have fired off a nasty email to the Postmaster General. I may do that anyway, because the notice is extremely easy to overlook. Most people who’d used Priority Mail flat-rate boxes would probably assume, as I did, that if the USPS accepted flat-rate boxes at the counter they’d also accept regional-rate boxes.

But the story does have a happy ending. I’ve made my last trip to the post office. While I was on the USPS site, I decided to try once more printing a sample Click-N-Ship label. This time it worked. Apparently, even though I had the latest available Linux version of Adobe Reader installed, it wasn’t compatible with the USPS web site. I got rid of Adobe Reader and just used a native Linux PDF reader, which worked fine.

So, no more carrying boxes out to the post office to ship them. USPS will pick them up at my front door. Printing labels and postage on-line also provides a discount over the rates charged at the counter, even for flat-rate stuff, and they include delivery confirmation for free. It’s a no-brainer to use the on-line service, and I would have been using it all along if I’d been able to get it to work.

With the USPS pushing so hard to get people to buy postage and print labels on-line, I have to wonder if this is part of a larger plan eventually to eliminate local branch offices. When you think about it, there’s not really much need for them, and they are extremely expensive to operate both in terms of staffing and facilities costs. There are all kinds of places that rent PO boxes. You can buy stamps at Costco. A huge percentage of mail volume comes from corporate mailers, who don’t need the services provided by local branches. Closing all of those local branches and firing the staff would go a long way toward putting the USPS on a sound financial footing.


10:47 – The Open/Libre Office standard dictionary never ceases to surprise me with what’s included and what’s not. As I write the biology book, I’ve had to add a large number of pretty common scientific terms to the dictionary, so I’ve gotten used to it. But today I typed the phrase “monocotyledonous or dicotyledonous”, fully expecting to see squiggly red underlines for both words. Nope. Both were already in the standard dictionary.

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Friday, 9 December 2011

07:52 – The EU summit has already ended in disaster, with the main Friday meeting having just gotten underway. Late last night, it was announced that UK PM David Cameron had, unexpectedly, proven that he possesses a backbone. Cameron vetoed Merkozy’s plan to federalize the EU and thereby eliminate the sovereignty of member nations.

Merkozy are trying to make the best of this fundamental split, claiming that because the 17 euro nations and some of the non-euro EU members agreed to form a “super eurozone”, they have achieved their goal. They’re wrong, of course, because their plans depend upon this clique having its decisions enforced by institutions that belong to the entire EU, including the UK. And the UK maintains a veto over such actions.

This summit is just like all the others have been, with grand plans being announced for the future, but without any details about how they’re to be approved by national legislatures, implemented, and, more importantly, paid for. More of the same, in other words. And more of the same just isn’t going to cut it. I expect the markets to be delighted, as usual, for a few days, after which reality will set in and the downward spiral will continue. Of course, this time S&P has already announced that if the summit doesn’t take concrete and effective steps to resolve the crisis, S&P may carry out its threatened downgrades of ratings on the sovereign debt of the entire EU, possibly as early as tomorrow. And nothing coming out of this summit is likely to satisfy S&P, or indeed anyone with a realistic view of the matter. We’ll see what happens.


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Tuesday, 6 December 2011

08:17 – I see that S&P has belatedly noticed that all 15 eurozone countries that don’t already have junk ratings should be downgraded, including Germany. The problem is, S&P is under immense political pressure, and so will probably downgrade these countries by only one or two notches. The reality, of course, is that there’s not a country in the eurozone that should have a rating in the investment-grade range. Back on 25 November, I posted my suggestions for accurate ratings for the eurozone countries. We’ll see how close S&P comes to reality when they finally get around to cutting these ratings.

We have all the subassemblies ready to make up a new batch of chemistry kits, so it’s just a matter of getting them boxed up and ready to ship. I have a bunch of backorders to fill, and intend to ship all of those Friday.

Work on the biology book continues. Right now, I’m working on a lab session about the root, stem, and leaf structures of seed plants, with another session about reproductive structures in the on-deck circle.


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Sunday, 4 December 2011

09:55 – We’re back in stock on the chemistry kits, or at least we will be after Barbara finishes building the final subassembly this afternoon. We’ll start shipping backorders this week.

I finished up the lab session on mosses and ferns yesterday except for a few end-of-session questions, which I’ll do today. Then I’ll get started with a lab session or two on seed plants, probably leading off with gymnosperms and then segueing into angiosperms and monocot versus dicot structures. I hope to finish up plants this week or early next, and then move along to invertebrates (which is where I was thinking about dissecting a politician). By around the 26th I should be getting started on chordates.


And I see that there’s another failed EU summit scheduled for later this week. As usual, Merkozy are talking past each other. Sarkozy honestly believes that Merkel is going to open the German coffers and accept Eurobonds and an interventionist ECB, which she isn’t going to do. Merkel honestly believes that Sarkozy is going to yield French sovereignty over taxing and spending to German control, which he isn’t going to do. So the outcome is predictable. They’ll meet, argue, make zero significant progress, and then announce that they’ve agreed a comprehensive solution, when in fact they’ve agreed on nothing that matters. The markets will rejoice for a few days, believing that a real solution has been reached, until they realize that it’s the same-old-same-old. Eventually, Germany will probably announce that it intends to invade France, and France will surrender. Same-old-same-old.

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Wednesday, 30 November 2011

09:37 – It’s the last day of the month, and I’d scheduled the Fungi chapter to be complete today. I don’t think I’m going to make it, but I may come close.


13:24 – Good grief. The Fed, the Bank of England, and most of the world’s other major central banks are going to bailout the eurozone, with (of course) the US bearing a disproportionate share of the costs. Not that it will ultimately make any difference. The euro has a fatal design flaw, so all this latest initiative will do is kick the can down the road a bit farther. And, like all the other half-measures taken so far, the actual long-term benefit will be zero while the costs will be extraordinarily high. You can’t fix a rotten, collapsing old shack by slapping a fresh coat of paint on it, and euro makes that rotten old shack look like a concrete blockhouse.

In case it’s not obvious to everyone, this initiative has nothing to do with saving the euro, which is not savable. The only purpose is to kick the can down the road far enough to stave off the collapse until after the 2012 election. Obama is as cynical as they come. He’s obviously weighed the political cost to himself and the Democrats of committing hundreds of billions of dollars to an ultimately futile bailout of Europe and Europe’s banks against the political fallout if the EU collapses before the 2012 election and concluded that screwing US taxpayers is his best option. No surprise, I guess. That’s what he’s been doing since he was elected.

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Friday, 25 November 2011

09:44 – I got 28 sets of the hazardous chemical subassemblies made up yesterday, with about 90 minutes’ work. It was a nice break from writing. Barbara won’t be home until Sunday afternoon, so the remaining work involved in building those 28 kits will have to wait for the following weekend, but we will be ready to start shipping chemistry kits again the week of 4 December.

On the heels of Germany’s disastrous bond auction Wednesday, Italy held an even more disastrous bond auction yesterday, with yields averaging more than 7.2%. It’s now obvious even to the biggest euro proponents that investors–individuals, banks, and foreign governments–are no longer willing to risk their money in euro-denominated instruments. Death of a currency as eurogeddon approaches. If you have any assets in euro-denominated instruments or funds, get out now, today, while you still can. The collapse, when it comes, won’t be gradual. And it will come, sooner rather than later.


13:38 – It really is time for any sane person to get as far away from the euro as possible as quickly as possible. At this point, we’re talking about the euro becoming a smoking pile of rubble within weeks, if not sooner. Don’t be lulled by the idea that Germany might save the euro. In the first place, it won’t because it’s not willing to take on responsibility for the debts of the other eurozone countries. In the second place, even if it were willing to do so, it can’t. Even if Germany were willing to beggar itself to save the euro, it doesn’t have sufficient assets to do so. Nor will Germany form a currency union with Finland, Austria, and the Netherlands. Germany will ultimately have no choice but to revert to the D-mark. All of them, including Merkel, know this, and you can bet that Germany has been frantically printing new D-marks in huge quantities for the last several weeks, if not months.

Euro armageddon: David Cameron fills the sandbags.



15:03 – And I see that S&P just downgraded Belgium from AA+ to AA, which is preposterous. Not that S&P cut Belgium’s rating, but that it left it ridiculously high. The ratings agencies obviously didn’t learn their lesson after the Lehman crisis, during which they were still rating junk derivatives AAA literally days before they crashed. The same is true now for sovereign credit ratings. A credit rating is supposed to reflect the likelihood of a country defaulting on at least some of its debts. On that basis, only the US really deserves the top credit rating, because it will never default. It may inflate the hell out of the dollar, which amounts to the same thing, but it will pay off its debts in dollars, regardless of what those dollars are then actually worth. So, if you assume that the US deserves the highest credit rating among all the world’s countries, although that rating is in fact crap, where should the major EU countries be rated? Well, let me fix that for them, using the descriptions from Wikipedia:

UK: BBB (An obligor has ADEQUATE capacity to meet its financial commitments. However, adverse economic conditions or changing circumstances are more likely to lead to a weakened capacity of the obligor to meet its financial commitments.)

Germany, Finland, the Netherlands: BB (An obligor is LESS VULNERABLE in the near term than other lower-rated obligors. However, it faces major ongoing uncertainties and exposure to adverse business, financial, or economic conditions which could lead to the obligor’s inadequate capacity to meet its financial commitments.)

France, Belgium, Austria: B (An obligor is MORE VULNERABLE than the obligors rated ‘BB’, but the obligor currently has the capacity to meet its financial commitments. Adverse business, financial, or economic conditions will likely impair the obligor’s capacity or willingness to meet its financial commitments.)

Italy, Spain: CC (An obligor is CURRENTLY HIGHLY-VULNERABLE.)

I’m not sure why the three major agencies haven’t assigned these ratings to these countries, because that would reflect reality. It may be that the agencies, as usual, are behind the curve, or it may be that they are coming under immense pressure from the countries in question. Well, there’s no doubt they’re under intense pressure from the EU governments and the EU itself, but I’m not sure that fully explains their failure to assign accurate ratings. Note that, of this group, only the UK with its BBB rating can still be considered “investment grade”, and it’s teetering on the edge. Germany and all of the other nations rated BB or lower are actually “junk grade”. And, as we all know, changing a bond’s rating to junk causes all sorts of unpleasant things to happen, not least of which are mass sell-offs by banks and investment companies that are not allowed to carry junk bonds on their books.

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Wednesday, 23 November 2011

10:10 – Barbara took off this morning on a trip to Pigeon Forge, Tennessee with her parents, sister, and sister’s husband. They plan to spend several days going to shows and shopping at the outlet malls. They rented a Toyota handicapped-accessible van to make it easier to handle Barbara’s dad’s wheelchair. They’ll be back Sunday. I told Barbara I’d watch 20 or 30 episodes of Despicable Housewives while she’s gone and then tell her what happened when she gets back. The truth is, I probably won’t turn on the TV while she’s gone. I’ll work during the days and read during the evenings. Well, read and throw the ball for Colin. Over and over and over.

I’m still working heads-down on the biology book. I sent the protists chapter to my editor this morning, and am currently working on a chapter about fungi and lichens.

Meanwhile, during the last couple of weeks, the euro crisis has gone from desperate to catastrophic. Italy and now Spain are on the verge of needing bailouts to avoid defaults, and there’s no money there to bail them out. Belgium isn’t far behind, and France maintains its AAA rating in name only. The FANG nations are now the G nation, with Finland, Austria, and the Netherlands coming under the gun. The ECB has reached and passed its limit in terms of its willingness to buy Italian and Spanish bonds, and without that subsidy Italian and Spanish bond yields will skyrocket from their already-catastrophic 7% levels. Private investors are no longer willing to risk their money in sovereign bonds or private bonds from any EU country other than Germany, and they’ve begun to be leery even of German bunds. The IMF and the BRIC nations have basically told the EU that it’s on its own and it can’t expect any IMF/BRIC bailouts. The US has tossed diplomacy aside, told the EU not to expect any financial support from the US, and is now ordering the EU in no uncertain terms to DO SOMETHING. The trouble is, there’s really nothing to be done, and even if there were, Germany is not willing to pay for it. We’re watching the collapse of the eurozone and the EU itself, and the timeframe is now weeks rather than months. This is not going to be pretty.


13:42 – Oh, my. Forget what I just said about Germany being the last FANG nation left standing. Germany–Germany!–just suffered a failed bond auction. Germany offered €6 billion worth of bonds, but private investors were willing to buy only about 60% of them, leaving the central bank having to buy the rest. Granted, the interest rates were low, at about 2%, but even so. This was the worst auction of German bonds in the euro era. At this point, it’s clear that investors don’t want even German bunds, perceiving (correctly) that Germany is in deep, deep trouble.


14:38 – Actually, I think I will watch something while Barbara is away. We started watching the BBC series, Survivors, on Netflix streaming a couple of months ago, but we watched only the first episode. Barbara found it grim and depressing, and I could tell she really didn’t want to watch any more of it. But it’s still in our queue, and I should be able to get through the remaining 11 50-minute episodes while she’s away.


15:46 – Ah, I wondered how long it would be before this shoe dropped. After watching the concessions given to Greece, it was only a question of time before other bailed out nations demanded that kind of favorable treatment retroactively. The only thing I wasn’t sure of was whether it’d be Portugal or Ireland first. Well, it turns out to be Ireland. Can Portugal be far behind?

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Saturday, 19 November 2011

09:04 – Barbara and I are about halfway through the seven seasons of Despicable Housewives on Netflix streaming. In what I think is a first for me, I like most of the male characters, but with the exception of Andrea Bowen in a supporting role as Julie Mayer I can’t stand any of the women characters. They’re stupid, greedy, whining, phony, lying, weasely, cheating, stealing, murdering scum. Literally. I don’t understand why the male characters don’t just strangle all of them.

Last night, we watched a couple episodes about a tornado hitting the fictional Wisteria Lane and the aftermath. Those were pretty powerful episodes, particularly since just a couple days earlier a real tornado devastated an area in a county that adjoins ours. As Barbara said, the devastation on the TV show looked exactly like the newspaper photos of that town just down the road from us. She also said that from now on when we’re under a tornado warning, we’re going to head for the basement.


11:30 – For all I complain about public schools and NCLB, there are occasional success stories. For example, the Dallas News reports on the stunningly good math and reading test scores achieved by third-grade pupils at Field Elementary school. There was a minor downside, though. They achieved those high math and reading test scores by devoting essentially all of their effort to teaching these kids math and reading, which of course meant they had to skip science and other subjects almost entirely. Not to worry, though. The kids still got grades in those other subjects. Of course, those grades were faked, sometimes assigned by teachers who’d never even taught the subjects in question. If I had school-age children, I’d do whatever it took to either homeschool them or get them into private schools. I don’t believe public schools–any public schools–can any longer be trusted to educate kids.

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