Category: government

Thursday, 28 March 2013

09:45 – Amidst all the furor about Cyprus, few have commented on the real implications of the imposition of capital controls to prevent capital flight from Cypriot banks: the euro has been shattered as a common currency.

The fundamental characteristic of a common currency is that it can be spent anywhere within the common currency area and has the same value anywhere within the area. This is now officially no longer true of the euro. Euros in Cyprus are now worth much less than euros elsewhere in the eurozone because they cannot be spent freely, either in Cyprus or in the rest of the eurozone.

For the last three years, the eurocrats have been trying desperately to prevent the collapse of the euro. Now, at a single stroke, they themselves have destroyed it. The euro is a fiat currency, and like all fiat currencies has no inherent value. What apparent value it has exists only because people pretend that it has value. Without that pretense, the euro is worth literally only the paper it is printed on. By preventing Cypriots from spending their euros, the eurocrats have destroyed that pretense.


Barbara mentioned to me the other day that she’d been talking with Amy, one of the neighbor kids. Amy starts 9th grade next autumn, and told Barbara that she was taking all honors and AP courses next year, including biology. She’s very interested in science, and want to pursue a career in science or medical research.

The other day, I ran into her dad, Steve, while I was walking Colin and mentioned to him what Barbara had told me. He’s very pleased that Amy is doing well academically and plans to go on to major in science in college and grad school. I told him that if Amy wants to get a jump on next year’s science that we’d be happy to give her one of our biology kits, assuming he and Amy’s stepmother, Heather, approve.

Yesterday I was walking Colin when Amy got off the school bus. We talked and she said her dad approved, although Heather was a bit concerned because one of her own experiences in high school chemistry had resulted in an explosion. I suspect Heather isn’t really strongly opposed to Amy doing home science, since Heather herself is a licensed pyrotechnician. And, like nearly all sciency kids, Amy would love to blow things up.

So I gave Amy a copy of our biology lab book, and told her that, if her parents approved, Barbara and I would give her what she needed to do the lab sessions.

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Wednesday, 27 March 2013

08:10 – I see that Netflix streaming now has series 5 of Mad Men available. I’d almost forgotten we had that title in our queue. We watched series 4 on DVD in April 2011. I seem to remember that there was a delay in shooting series 5.

And I’ve just started re-reading Colleen McCullough’s First Man in Rome series, the first book of which centers on Gaius Marius and Sulla. It’s as good as I remember it. McCullough is a first-class historian, and this book, although fiction, reads like a serious history of Republican Rome. McCullough put more time and effort into just her glossary than most authors put into an entire novel.

I did the same calculations last night that I remember doing the first time I read this book, back when it was first published. McCullough is talking about the cursus honorum, the sequence of offices held by Romans on their ways to becoming consul. Sulla, who is high-born but poor, is dreaming of pursuing the cursus honorum, but has no hope of accumulating the wealth needed. To be a senator, he needs to prove to the censors that he has an income of at least one million sestertii per year, and even to become a knight he requires 400,000 sestertii per year. So I calculated that in today’s money. As it turns out, with the spot price of silver currently around $28/ounce, one sestertius is pretty close to one current US dollar. So, Republican Roman equites (knights) had incomes that would put them into today’s 1%, and Republican Roman senators would be today’s IRS millionaires.

When Barbara got home yesterday and found I’d unpacked those 11 boxes and put away their contents, she said I should have waited for her to help because she’s stronger than I am and in better shape. I scoffed, and pointed out that I could still bench-press 90 pounds. Aha!, she countered, she could bench-press 90 pounds. Aha!, I pointed out, 90 pounds is what a girl bench-presses. In reality, I could still bench-press guy weight, call it 250 pounds. Okay, I admit it. I don’t know for sure that I could still bench-press 250 pounds, but I suspect I could.


10:24 – Geez. Hard on the heels of demanding that Cyprus commit suicide in exchange for a $13 billion “bailout”, the eurocrats are now demanding a $15 billion increase in their budget for 2013. Not a budget of $15 billion, you understand. A budget increase of $15 billion.

Cameron and the Tories are livid, and Farage and the UKIP are whatever beyond livid is. This budget increase translates to UK taxpayers “contributing” about $2 billion more, or roughly $125 per UK family. Just what they need in this economy. What’s worse, Cameron has no national veto, because this budget increase can/will be passed by majority vote. It seems to me that it’s long past time for the UK to make a definitive statement by withdrawing entirely from the EU. The only benefit the UK receives from EU membership is the Common Market, and that would survive a UK withdrawal. Cameron has delayed much too long holding a referendum on UK membership in the EU because he knows a referendum would go heavily in favor of withdrawal. Despite the evidence, Cameron remains a committed europhile. If he continues on this course, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Nigel Farage and the UKIP go from a minority party to running things. Cameron and the Tories scoff at that idea, but I think they’re just whistling past the graveyard.

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Monday, 25 March 2013

09:55 – If you believe Merkel and the eurocrats, the Cyprus Crisis is now “over”, and with only one fatality. Cyprus itself, which has been gutted. Off-shore banking, the core of the Cypriot economy, has been killed deader than King Tut, leaving only tourism as a significant source of revenue. (Until now, banking was about 70% of the Cypriot economy and tourism 30%. So, literally overnight, 70% of the Cypriot economy has disappeared.) In a nation of about one million population, the banking collapse alone will eliminate tens of thousands of high-paying jobs, leaving mostly only low-paying service jobs in the tourism industry. The follow-on effects, including plummeting property values, are likely to be as bad as the bank collapse itself.

Meanwhile, the €10 billion bailout boosts Cyprus’s indebtedness to about 150% of GDP. The former GDP, that is. As the GDP of Cyprus collapses with the loss of off-shore banking, its actual indebtedness is likely to end up at 300% to 400% of the new GDP. And the IMF says this is sustainable? What planet are they living on? In the next two to three years, Cyprus will inevitably suffer an economic collapse that will make the Great Depression look like a minor blip. And the worst of it is that this is only the first bailout. Just as with Greece, Cyprus will inevitably need more bailouts, with increasingly harsh terms. Cyprus is now on life-support, just waiting for Germany to pull the plug.


12:39 – This morning Jeroen Dijsselbloem, head of the Eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers, announced that the Cyprus bailout, with its seizing of depositors’ assets, is a template for future bailout actions within the eurozone. This afternoon Angela Merkel, big boss of the eurozone, ordered Dijsselbloem beheaded for being foolish enough to reveal her plans in public. Meanwhile, Putin and (particularly) Medvedev, who are livid at the eurozone’s confiscation of Russians’ assets, very probably including some of their own personal assets, already have plans well underway to punish German companies who do business in Russia by freezing and confiscating their assets. And a little mole tells me that capital flight from Southern Tier banks including French ones, already high, is fast increasing. I expect that by the end of this year the capital controls currently being implemented in Cyprus will spread to the Southern Tier countries. This isn’t going to be pretty.

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Sunday, 24 March 2013

09:00 – The patience of Germany for continuous bailouts of other eurozone countries has now obviously been completely exhausted. At this point, Germany obviously doesn’t care whether Cyprus meets its terms for a bailout, believing that the “contagion” can be contained. They’re wrong, but that’s what they believe. For Cyprus, the point is moot anyway. Either way, Cyprus has been written off. Its economy is based on off-shore banking, and that no longer exists whether or not Cyprus is bailed out. To Cypriots, it must seem as though this catastrophe has occurred overnight, but there’s no question that Cyprus has now become the new Greece, with all that implies. And Cypriots are pissed, feeling abandoned and betrayed by the rest of the eurozone, particularly Germany. They’re screwed either way, and my guess is that this week they’ll tell the EU to get screwed. That means Cyprus defaults, crashes out of the euro, and returns to its local currency, but at this point I think most Cypriots no longer care.


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Friday, 22 March 2013

07:51 – Congress has given the US Postal Service no relief, insisting that it must continue 6-day service. However, some in congress, along with USPS officials, have pointed out that congress has not specified which types of mail must be picked up and delivered on Saturdays. So the USPS currently intends to proceed as planned, dropping Saturday pickup and delivery of all types of mail except Priority Mail and Express Mail, primarily packages, as of this summer. This change would have zero effect on our business, as we ship our kits by Priority Mail.

I asked our mailman yesterday how this change would affect him, other than the fact that he’d then be working only Monday through Friday, with weekends off. He said it wouldn’t affect him or any the other full-time staff that had permanent routes. The main effect would be on the employees who covered those routes on the full-timers’ days off. I asked him how many of those would have to be retained to cover Saturday Priority/Express Mail pickup/delivery. He said that our zipcode has 36 routes, all of which could be covered on Saturdays by only two or three people.

The USPS unions are utterly opposed to any changes to Saturday delivery for the obvious reason. If dropping Saturday delivery of first-class and junk mail allows the USPS to reduce staff by a factor of 12 to 18, from 36 to 2 or 3, what would be the effect on employment of the USPS discontinuing 2nd-class and junk mail entirely? Only a small percentage of our mail is first-class. Nearly all of it is 2nd-class (catalogs) and junk mail. If those were eliminated–leaving only first-class, Priority, and Express mail–the USPS could reduce its delivery staff by some very large percentage. If 2 or 3 people can cover this zipcode for Priority/Express mail pickup/delivery, how many more would be needed to add first-class mail to the mix? Four or five?


10:11 – I’ve just been running some numbers, trying to get a handle on what’s likely to happen for the rest of 2013. One of the comparisons I ran was on kit revenues by month versus year-ago. In December 2012 kit revenues were 4.4 times those of December 2011. In January, February, and March 2013 versus the same months in 2012, kit revenues were 6.9X, 2.8X, and 8.8X, respectively, for an average of about 5.7X.

One commenter the other day suggested that I just buy a year’s supply of everything and keep it inventoried. The problem with that is two-fold: first, I don’t really know what a year’s supply is. If I order in enough for 5.7X last year’s kit sales, that’s 1,500+ kits’ worth. Second, there’s the issue of storage space and working capital. So I’ve decided to buy large quantities only of those items that are single-source and, based on our previous experience, are likely to be backordered at some point. Stuff that I can get from two, three, or four of our wholesalers I won’t worry about. So I may end up with 1,500 spatulas in stock, 600 dozen of the thick cavity slides, and so on. That, we can deal with. What I don’t want to have to deal with inventorying is 40 gross of beakers or 750 dozen test tubes or 125 dozen 100 mL graduated cylinders.


12:26 – I just ordered another two cases of the Sterilite 6-quart plastic storage bins from Home Depot. With the case of 60 we just received, that gives us 180 total bins, plus the 37 that I’d bought earlier in the store. I’m going to keep 30 of the bins for building chemical bags, small parts bags, and so on. The other 187 will be used for storage. I just checked and found that the Sterilite bins will easily hold more than 60 of the 30 mL bottles and twice that many of the 15 mL bottles. With our current kit lineup, we have 142 chemicals to store and roughly 100 more equipment and component items. Many of the latter don’t need storage bins. For example, we order goggles by the case of 100, and they stay in those cases. Same deal for items like beakers and so on. Subassemblies like chemical bags and small part bags are much too large for these small bins. A batch of 30 of those bags fills a good-size box, so we store them in, uh, good-size boxes.

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Wednesday, 20 March 2013

08:46 – One of the most annoying things about Netflix streaming is that they drop titles with only a week’s notice. One series we’ve had in our queue for probably a year has been gradually bubbling toward the top. Last night, I brought our queue up in my browser, intending to move it to the top so that we could conveniently sample it on our Roku. Unfortunately, availability of that series is now listed as “until 3/25”. There are 50+ 45-minute episodes, so there’s no point to starting it now. Netflix must know how long they’ve licensed each movie or series for, so what’s the point of waiting until a week before their license expires to let viewers know how much longer it’ll be available? They should list the expiration date as soon as they add a title to their catalog.

I see that Cyprus has become The Mouse that Roared. Cypriot legislators rejected the Troika’s (read, Germany’s) bailout terms without a single vote in favor, even though those terms had been modified to protect depositors with balances of €20,000 or less. Merkel must be spitting nails. Germany now has the choice of backing down, which it can’t do, or watching Cyprus crash out of the euro. That’s assuming that Cyprus doesn’t come to some agreement with Russia, which Merkel has explicitly forbidden. No matter what happens, things look ominous for the EU, the euro, and Merkel’s reelection chances this autumn. It will be ironic if tiny Cyprus, which accounts for something like 1/500th of EU GDP, is the straw that breaks the euro’s back.


12:20 – I’m building kits today. We’re getting low stock on the CK01A chemistry kits, with less than a dozen in finished goods inventory, but the real problem is the BK01 biology kits. I shipped one this morning, which takes our remaining stock down to one. I just finished putting together another 30 of the biology kit small parts bags, which was the last thing I needed for another batch of 30 biology kits.

The real problem is that the biology kits include a 12-pack of deep cavity slides. These aren’t the common well slides. They’re three times the thickness of a standard microscope slide–about 3.2mm versus 1 mm–and have a deep cylindrical cavity through most of their thickness. Only one of our vendors carries them, and they’re backordered through 15 May. After I build these 30 biology kits, I’ll be down to only eight packs of the thick cavity slides in stock. That means we’ll have only 38 biology kits available to carry us from now until mid-May. I don’t think that’ll be enough.

We’ve already decided to delay introducing our new LK01 Life Science Kit from 31 March until about 1 June, because it also includes thick cavity slides. I guess we’ll just continue to build stock of the biology kits without the thick cavity slides. If we get more than 38 orders for biology kits between now and mid-May, we’ll just ship what we have and back-order the rest of the orders.

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Monday, 18 March 2013

10:51 – There seems to be a great deal of surprise that Cyprus has stopped asset transfers in preparation for stealing up to 9.9% of bank depositors’ account balances. I’m not sure why anyone is surprised. That’s what governments do. They call it a “tax”, and they can do it anytime they want and in any amount they want. That kind of thing happens in the US and other first-world countries as well. It just happened with ObamaCare. And it’s even more likely to occur in places with undemocratic, dictatorial, autocratic, unelected governments, like the EU. Cypriot bank account holders should be thankful that their government, at the insistence of the Troika, stole only 9.9% or less of their account balances. They could have stolen it all.

So, Cyprus becomes the fifth eurozone nation to be bailed out, following Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain. Italy can’t be far behind, and France not far behind Italy. When those two go, it’s game over for the euro. Meanwhile, the Protestant northern-tier nations look on, dreading the day when those bills come due, while the Catholic southern-tier nations continue to run up huge bills they have no hope of ever paying. Merkel is mortgaging Germany’s future solely to improve her chances of being re-elected this autumn, which looks increasingly unlikely to happen. And the downward slide of Greece has already passed the “developing nation” third-world level, and is quickly headed for whatever’s worse than third-world. And, as much as I’m glad not to be European and particularly not on the euro, I keep thinking that it can happen here. In fact, if we don’t soon start taking a meat-axe to spending, it will happen here.


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Thursday, 14 March 2013

07:57 – So, the catholics have a new pope. I’m not sure why anyone cares, including catholics, although from the amount of news coverage one would think something important had been going on. One vicious old bastard with medieval attitudes retired; now the catholics have a different vicious old bastard with medieval attitudes. Meet the new boss. As they say, ignorance is bliss.

Speaking of ignorance, the county commissioners of neighboring Rowan County insist on starting meetings with sectarian prayers. The ACLU pointed out that this is illegal and asked them to stop doing that, but they refused. So the ACLU is suing the county. I think that’s a mistake. The ACLU should be suing those commissioners personally. The taxpayers of Rowan County should not be liable for paying the costs to defend the indefensible actions of this group of individuals. Closer to home, a local legislator has introduced a bill that would allow local school systems to offer bible study courses in public schools. Why can these morons not get it through their tiny little brains that there is no place for religion in government? None. Government is supposed to represent all of the people, not just this subset of very vocal religious nutcases.


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Monday, 4 March 2013

09:21 – Barbara spent the night over at her dad’s place. She’s home tonight and then pulling a double over at her dad’s place Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Frances is doing Thursday and Friday nights.

Frances called yesterday because she was concerned about a redness around their dad’s injury. She decided to haul Dutch over to the private emergency care place to have it looked at. They said it was no big deal, but prescribed an antibiotic and saline irrigation. Frances picked up the antibiotic, but Barbara said she’d stop on her way over after dinner to pick up the 0.9% saline wash they’d suggested. I told Barbara I’d make it up right here in the sink and save her the trouble of stopping at the drugstore. I just dissolved 9 grams of table salt in a liter of tap water, and didn’t bother to autoclave it. After all, more airborne bacteria will settle on Dutch’s skin during the irrigation than are present in a whole liter of tap water.

Science kit sales have picked up over last month. In the first three days of March, we’ve sold five kits, and we’re averaging about 0.80 kits/day year-to-date. That’s pretty scary, given that in the first three months of 2012 we averaged about 0.12 kits/day. This is our slowest time of year. Factoring in seasonality, that puts us on track to sell 1,500 kits in 2013, assuming we can build and ship that many.


13:01 – I see that Latvia has formally applied to join the eurozone, which is kind of like formally applying to board the Titanic. After it’s already hit the iceberg.

I think it’s safe to say that no sane person, including sane politicians (if there is such a thing), would want to be a member of the eurozone. If you’re in one of the dozen or so worse-off countries, the euro is choking the life out of your economy and causing severe social unrest that may end in revolution. If you’re in Germany or (decreasingly) Austria, Finland, Holland, or Luxembourg, being in the euro means you’re on the hook for paying the multi-trillion euro bills of the worse off eurozone countries. What’s not to hate? Crappy taste. More filling. Geez.

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Friday, 1 March 2013

07:39 – Barbara arrived home about 2200 last night, after a long day, visiting her mom in the hospital, and then having dinner with her dad and sister. She says her mom is doing better, although from her description it sounds as though Sankie is still acting paranoid and delusional. Barbara is hoping she’ll be well enough to come home next week. I hope that’s true, because it’ll allow her and Frances to stop alternating nights staying with their dad.

According to the morning paper, there’s a revolt brewing about the new property tax values that have recently been mailed to homeowners, but not in the usual sense. The county reassesses tax values every four years, and every time in living memory until this time, those values have gone up. This time, a lot them went down, some by high percentages. The paper mentioned two in particular, one woman whose new assessment on her home was for only 50% of the 2009 tax value, and a second whose new assessment was for only 30% of the 2009 tax value. Both of these homes are located in East Winston, which is the poorest area of Winston-Salem and predominantly black. And many other homes, in East Winston particularly, have also had dramatic reductions in their tax values. Some spokesmen for the black community are publicly accusing the county of conspiring to destroy the black community, saying that their equity is being “stolen” from them. The reality, of course, is that these new valuations probably overstate the actual value of the homes, if anything. Assessed tax values do not determine either the selling price of homes or the loan value for those seeking to refinance. Even if the county tax assessor had left those values at their 2009 levels, those homes wouldn’t sell for any more than they do now, nor would banks be willing to lend money using those homes as collateral. So, in essence, these people are actually demanding that they be charged higher property taxes. Geez.


11:07 – This is pretty cool. We just made the OEDb’s list of the 100 All-Time Greatest Popular Science Books. Our chemistry book is at #51 (although the books aren’t ranked) alongside titles like Cosmos, A Brief History of Time, The Origin of the Species, Gray’s Anatomy, The Elegant Universe, and many other really great science books. We preen.


15:31 – If I ever wondered why biological stains are called “stains” rather than “dyes”, I’ve just had it brought home to me in spades. I’ve been filling 60 sets of stains bottles for biology kits, and the last two I’ve filled–Hucker’s crystal violet and Sudan III–are the stainiest stains I work with. I’m used to them staining polypropylene beakers and glassware, sometimes indelibly for all practical purposes. No solvent I’ve tried will remove some stains from plasticware and even abrasive cleanser has difficulty removing some stains from glassware. But today I was using my bottle-top dispenser, the parts of which that are in contact with the liquids being dispensed are made of Teflon. Teflon, the very definition of “nothing sticks to it”. But these stains do. It’s really no big deal. The staining is cosmetic only, and by definition it’s not going to leech out to a different solution, at least in concentrations that are detectable even instrumentally.

But just wait until Barbara gets home. I’ve been doing cleanup in her kitchen sink. It’s “stainless steel”, but (you guessed it…) it’s now stained in pretty hues of violet, red, and orange. Fortunately, I know from experience that those stains can be removed, eventually, with a lot of abrasive cleanser and elbow grease. I’m not going to bother cleaning the sink today because I still have some work to do that would just stain it again. But I will clean the sink thoroughly tomorrow.

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