Monday, 28 August 2017

09:35 – It was 55.5F (13C) when I took Colin out at 0700, partly cloudy. Barbara is off to the gym and supermarket, after which it’s back to work on science kits.


I keep seeing articles like this one about the decline in prepping. FTA:

I’ve recently noticed several survival/prepper blogs that have stopped publishing probably because of the lack of interest in prepping after Trump was elected. I think that over the next several months we’ll see many others stop posting new content. I’ve also noticed the same with prepper related YouTube channels.

I’ve talked with a couple of my former advertisers and they have noticed a huge drop in sales over the past few months. And they both told me that survival blogs were not sending any traffic or sales and that it’s not just this site but all survival blogs that they advertised on.

I’ve noticed no such decline. I suspect that Creekmore and others that are trying to make a living from preppers are encountering two problems:

1. After the 837th me-too article on building a bugout bag or choosing a retreat location, how much more can anyone say?

2. Most prepping supplies aren’t purchased via on-line ads or from specialty prepping vendors. They’re purchased from Costco, Sam’s Club, Walmart, Amazon, Home Depot, and other mainstream vendors. By now, most preppers and would-be preppers have caught on to the fact that they don’t need the overpriced items that prepping websites are pushing. And most preppers who are going to buy big-ticket specialty prepping items have already done so. Those who haven’t but intend to do so will, like nearly all consumers nowadays, price-shop the hell out of it. Rather than buy from boutique prepping vendors/ads, they’ll buy their products from mainstream vendors.

The last time I bought a prepping item from a boutique prepping vendor was … never. And I suspect that most preppers shop the same way. For example, when I exchanged email a week or so ago with my contact at Keystone Meats, I asked her how business was. She said that they were shipping product as fast as they could make it. I suspect the same is true of Augason Farms and other companies that produce products of interest to preppers.


Email from Kathy. She and Mike, following the example of Jen, Brittany, and the other Prepper Girls, have decided to run a readiness exercise over the long Labor Day weekend. They’ve hooked up with another local couple about the same age as they are and who also have two teenagers. This couple shares their interest in prepping and are similarly well-prepared. They decided to do a grid-down simulation over the holiday at Kathy’s and Mike’s place, starting Friday evening and running through Monday evening, just to work out the kinks.

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69 Responses to Monday, 28 August 2017

  1. Nick Flandrey says:

    New day.

    Up late. Slept late.

    only a bit more than 1 inch overnight at my house.

    Haven’t looked at weather forcast or caught up on things yet. Need breakfast for the kids.

    n

    Ok, did just hear Sheriff’s dep on scanner say he’s been told Buffalo Bayou is rising again….

  2. Nick Flandrey says:

    Ok addicks reservoir is at “flooding houses level” 103.2 ft ASL with base at 68 ft ASL

    35.5ft of water behind the dirt pile.

    and the sheriff’s deputies are having a lot of trouble keeping people off a specific stretch of the Katy freeway. The upshot is, they’ve got multiple deputies sitting in cars blocking freeway on ramps instead of doing other things, like shooting looters.

    n

  3. rick says:

    96 here yesterday, 100 forecast today. Fortunately the forecast is for 18% humidity at 100 degrees. Hot, but livable in the shade.

    Prepping has gone mainstream. In the Peoples Republic of Portland there have been a number of presentations on earthquake preparedness by the Red Cross. Some of the advice given, like advice to buy freeze dry food, is just plain stupid. Other advice, like the amount of supplies, is inadequate, but at least it is a step in the right direction.

    Prepping reminds me of the gluten free fad. There used to be a few stores specializing in overpriced gluten free items like fake spaghetti made of rice. Now you can buy similar items at the local discount supermarket at somewhat lower prices. The same stores now have increasingly larger prepping sections, including LTS and organization items. Supermarkets know how to move a lot of items at low margins. So does Amazon and Walmart. There is no reason to buy overpriced items from a prepping web site.

    I’ll continue to read Bob’s Daynotes daily, as I have done for many years. I won’t waste my time on prepping sites. If Bob recommends something, I know he’s not doing it to make a buck. Even when he’s wrong, he is honestly wrong.

    Rick in Portland

  4. Robert Bruce Thompson says:

    “Even when he’s wrong, he is honestly wrong.”

    Who could ask for more?

  5. Nick Flandrey says:

    Update, my gun store buddy and family are safe, living on second floor, still have power. surrounded by 4ft of water.

    n

  6. SVJeff says:

    Even when he’s wrong, he is honestly wrong.

    I claim the corollary for myself often enough – often wrong, but never in doubt.

  7. Greg Norton says:

    Prepping has gone mainstream. In the Peoples Republic of Portland there have been a number of presentations on earthquake preparedness by the Red Cross. Some of the advice given, like advice to buy freeze dry food, is just plain stupid. Other advice, like the amount of supplies, is inadequate, but at least it is a step in the right direction.

    Earthquake preparedness? That’s new since we left Vantucky in 2014. Are they anticipating something?

  8. SteveF says:

    After the 837th me-too article on building a bugout bag or choosing a retreat location, how much more can anyone say?

    Mocking the really bad advice in 419 of the articles? I’m not talking about reasonable disagreement over priorities or specific items but advice qualitatively like “strap a chainsaw to your backpack, along with two gallons of gas and a bottle of 2-stroke oil, so you can cut apart trees that are blocking your path”. (To be clear, I’ve never seen that particular advice, but there have been quite a few howlers.) Or suggesting that you put a small pot in your Get Home Bag so you can heat up your food. (Which I have seen. Hey, Derplord, how about advising people to carry food that doesn’t need to be heated?)

    the sheriff’s deputies are having a lot of trouble keeping people off a specific stretch of the Katy freeway. The upshot is, they’ve got multiple deputies sitting in cars blocking freeway on ramps

    How about parking a fire engine to block the entire ramp? With all that water you’ve got, it’s not like you’ll need fire engines for a while. Failing that, just put up a sign at the on-ramp saying “If you travel on this stretch of highway you may die and we won’t bother to do anything to help you.” Evolution in action and all that.

    Even when he’s wrong, he is honestly wrong.”

    Who could ask for more?

    What I would expect from you is the ability to alter time, space, and physical constants to make yourself to have always been correct even if in some pinched-off branch of space-time you were briefly wrong.

  9. Nick Flandrey says:

    They use the fire trucks for high water vehicles. Dump trucks too. Harder to wash away, taller to get into deeper water.

    n

  10. Dave Hardy says:

    Another sunny day with blue skies here in Paradise, i.e., Retroville.

    I am taking it easy today after the lawn-mowing and other stuff I did outside yesterday, because I have to drive 35 miles to and from class between 4:30 and 10. So I’m basically just getting ready for that and doing the minimum around the house so far. It would be nice if I’m not hobbling badly with the cane tonight or falling and having to crawl on my hands and knees to reach something to pull myself back up.

    Mrs. OFD is instructing this week in Sacramento and I hope the classroom or whatever is air-conditioned.

  11. Nick Flandrey says:

    Just announced that one of the water plants was underwater and in danger of failing.

    I was pretty sure we’d see infrastructure begin to fail today…

    Filled the tub for easy flushing water. Didn’t get the Bob liner out. Got drinking water and more is falling every minute.

    If I hadn’t just bought the additional 200L tanks, I’d be using the Bob.

    n

  12. Dave Hardy says:

    Watched some drone footage of the AO down there; not sure if it was one of the fleet operated by ColAtoz. Wow. And the aftermath, which isn’t even arrived yet, will last quite a while. I see the usual idiots attempting to drive in a foot of water, of course. Just like up here when we’ve had river floods. Houston PD chief seems to be on the ball, though.

    From my observations in political meatspace here in Retroville, I consider our town manager, town administrator and police chief to be people we’d mos def wanna have in place during any SHTF scenarios. They all appear to be squared away and on top of things and I am pretty sure they’d be the same in any crisis. That also goes for the town hall clerical staff and the highway department chief.

    Do youse know who your peeps are in those positions where you live?

    And as I and others have said before, good also to know who your judges and district attorneys are, and of course state reps and state senators. Forget the clowns who go off to Mordor; they’re lost. Like our National Administrator appears to be.

    Getting to be like an old Shakey or Marlowe play about the Wars of the Roses; idiot kings and maniac generals.

  13. ech says:

    We are dry now. Had a heavy rain at 4:45 am and intermittent light rain. The street is dry in front of the house. Hauled the area rug out of the den to the garage, used the shop vac to vacuum up the water, wife mopped with a disinfectant. Now I am cutting the master bedroom carpet up and throwing onto the patio. Washer and dryer OK and going. Am going to file a claim today on flood insurance, as Texas law changes on 9-1 to make it harder to sue your insurance company.

    Getting older makes it harder to do this stuff. I am really sore already. But we have wine, bourbon, gin, and mixers. And a bunch of beer.

  14. Nick Flandrey says:

    “But we have wine, bourbon, gin, and mixers. And a bunch of beer.”

    That’s the spirit!

    n

  15. Dave Hardy says:

    “Getting older makes it harder to do this stuff. I am really sore already.”

    Sing it, brother!

    I’m SOOL when it comes to reviving myself with spirits after a few hours of navvy labor; just gotta drink lotsa ice-water and gobble up Aleve and/or Ibuprofen and knock off till the next day, maybe.

  16. SteveF says:

    “Knock off”? As in “Knock off an appliance store and carry your new giant TV as you walk through the ankle-deep water”?

    FWIW, every single picture and film clip I’ve seen of looting in Houston has been of people who aren’t of northern European ancestry. Selective taking of pictures by racist onlookers? Selective posting of pictures by racist news media and bloggers? Just an unfortunate series of coincidences, putting all of the looters in shadows just as their pictures were taken? Or am I just a raaaaaacist no matter what?

    My take on the matter is that rather than whine about police profiling and raaaaacist citizenry, maybe the soi dissant black leaders need to address the barbaric level of crime in “their” community.

  17. Robert Bruce Thompson says:

    “Do youse know who your peeps are in those positions where you live?”

    I’se met the chairman of the county commissioners and several of the other commissioners, the mayor, the city manager, several of the city council, the Sparta Chief of Police and several of the cops, the Sheriff and several deputies, etc. etc. Barbara volunteers with several of the wives of the PTB.

    Despite the rep of people with “Asperger’s”, I’ve always been exceptionally good at sizing people up on very short acquaintance, and all of these people strike me as utter Normals. No bullshit about them. Barbara says the same of the wives.

  18. lynn says:

    My brother living 8 blocks away from Brays Bayou inside 610 had 500 people come to his house yesterday. His 6,000 ft2 two story is 5 ft off the ground and did not flood. The water peaked at 4 ft at his house.

    The problem is, the average age is his neighborhood is around 75. Maybe higher. They were landing ? hovering ? Coast Guard helicopters in the culdesacs in front of and behind his house plus taking people in boats.

    Now all of the people are gone, all of his neighbors houses are flooded, and he and his wife are the only people left. They have food and water for a while. Both of his Ford 3/4 ton 4×4 diesel trucks are flooded, even the one with the six inch lift kit. He drove one around this morning and thinks that the turbo is locked up. The security system in his new truck was giving a death cry all night.

  19. lynn says:

    We have decided to ride the river out for now. I just don’t think that Greatwood is going to flood. Unless the river goes higher. We have about 12 hours to change our minds.
    http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=HGX&gage=RMOT2

    Harvey is back out in the Gulf and headed to the east side of Houston. That means that we will be on the clean side soon. The dirty side is where most of the rain occurs.
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092017_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/092407_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

  20. Nick Flandrey says:

    Interesting that Homeland SWAT 1 is using encryption for their radio comms….

    n

  21. Nick Flandrey says:

    @lynn the Ft Bend Judge was talking about roads north being under water by 7pm.

    He also mentioned that several local levy authorities were staying to work on issues with pump capacity…

    n

  22. Dave Hardy says:

    “Despite the rep of people with “Asperger’s”, I’ve always been exceptionally good at sizing people up on very short acquaintance…”

    Ditto, maybe due also to my years of street cop chit, and despite the rep of derps like me with PTSD as “isolating” and being “anti-social” and chit like that. You can usually spot a bullshitter a mile off. Could also be a function of our advanced age and decrepitude and utter senility and dementia.

    Speaking of decrepitude, I took another fall off the back porch steps yesterday afternoon; landed on my ass again and smacked my head on our PK Grill, too, for extra highlights. No one saw me, as I was behind our lilac bush on that side and my cah. I sat there and just laughed. Fuck it! No damage and I was able to back up onto the steps and get up again, no harm done. Fucking leg went right out from under me again, no more taking orders from the central nervous system, I guess.

    So now I gotta be extra-careful on stairs; the college told me it would be OK for the old doddering crip to park in the faculty/staff lot nearest the building tonight, bless their little hahts. What a state of affairs this is! Jeezum Crow!

    Two more weeks before I see my primary care MD. Not to worry, though, the National Administrator and the VA are gonna fix everything Real Soon Now.

  23. SteveF says:

    Uh-oh! Sounds like inappropriate laughter! Hysteria! Mental instability! Quick, grab all that vet’s guns before he hurts himself or others!

    In other news, fuck Obama and every one of his appointees.

  24. paul says:

    Sometimes I just have to wonder about myself.

    I have the 500GB drive from the DirecTV box. I looked on Newegg for a case. $20, $25, no big deal. I got side tracked and never pulled the trigger.

    Today I’m rummaging around for something and Hey! What’s this? On the shelf behind my monitor is a Seagate Backup Plus. USB 3 and 500GB. Unopened. I looked in saved e-mail and I bought it from Newegg four and a half years ago. $50. Right about the time Mom moved in. I guess I had other stuff happening.

    Well, it’s a cute little thing about the size of a cell phone. One end of the cable looks odd. I’m sure that is, in the words of DeathStar Telecom, “in order to serve you better” not a very good thing is the cable goes bad. Or maybe that is just USB3. Shrug. Device Manager says I have USB3 and USB2. I don’t know which ports. Maybe it doesn’t matter.

  25. MrAtoz says:

    Also, Kankles Klinton IS STILL NOT PRESIDENT!

  26. paul says:

    The weather today is “variable”. It clouds up and gets dark. Sprinkles rain for 20 seconds. Then it clears and becomes sunny. Meanwhile the wind varies from nothing to blowing a plastic 5 gallon bucket off of the porch and sometimes across the patio.

    Temp is up to 78. Pretty nice, actually.

  27. Ray Thompson says:

    Both of his Ford 3/4 ton 4×4 diesel trucks are flooded

    They will be a total loss for the insurance company. Neither will work properly again. Water in the electronics is fatal. Soaked interior is a breeding ground for mold. Rust will eventually attack the seat mechanism.

    One end of the cable looks odd

    That is a standard USB 3.0 connector for the device. Perfectly normal. You will also find the other end of the cable is blue in the USB connector signifying USB 3.0.

    USB3 and USB2. I don’t know which ports

    You will also find that USB 3.0 ports on the computer are blue.

  28. paul says:

    Also, Kankles Klinton IS STILL NOT PRESIDENT!

    No matter what Trump does, he did this. 🙂

  29. paul says:

    You will also find that USB 3.0 ports on the computer are blue.

    Thank you Mr. Ray! I didn’t know that. I grabbed a flashlight and a small mirror to look. The 4 on the front are not blue. There’s a cluster of 6 on the back and the only blue I see is the VGA port. Oh wait! Lower are 2 more USB ports and they are blue. My worthless Epson scanner was plugged into one.

    Added: Win7 found it. An 18″ cord seems a bit on the short side.

  30. lynn says:

    Speaking of decrepitude, I took another fall off the back porch steps yesterday afternoon; landed on my ass again and smacked my head on our PK Grill, too, for extra highlights. No one saw me, as I was behind our lilac bush on that side and my cah. I sat there and just laughed. F*** it! No damage and I was able to back up onto the steps and get up again, no harm done. Fucking leg went right out from under me again, no more taking orders from the central nervous system, I guess.

    Sounds situation normal, all freaked up. As long as you did not wet yourself.

    You may have to get those shrapnel removed from your neck. They may be short circuiting your spinal cord. But, I am not a doctor nor do I play one on the intertubes.

    I took a dive Saturday while giving the dog her went potty outside treat. Somehow I got turned around and was suddenly laying on the floor. The wife asked if I was finished dancing and went back to her tv show.

  31. DadCooks says:

    @OFD, WOW sorry to hear about your fall and grateful that there appears to be no damage. Someone was watching over you.

    I have never walked normally so I have an advantage in that I do not rely on my legs working automatically. Handrails have always been my friend.

    Take care my friend.

    In a few years @RBT may have to hold his first invitational wheelchair race for us ol’ codgers. 😉

  32. lynn says:

    @lynn the Ft Bend Judge was talking about roads north being under water by 7pm.

    He also mentioned that several local levy authorities were staying to work on issues with pump capacity…

    Yup, the old sections of the NEW grand parkway are under water. And the 20 year old 99 bridge across the Brazos has its abutments exposed to the river from previous flood erosion (it was condemned by a bridge inspector last month). That bridge is being closed at 7pm due to high water. And it is under construction to add new piers that handle the water erosion.

    Yup, those are Sienna Plantation (40,000 people) and Pecan Grove (20,000 people). Our levee is very well run, just a little “short” for an 800 year flood.

    BTW, who comes up with these terms ? 100 year flood ? 500 year flood ? 800 year flood ?

    Our neighbors have a tall two story. We are going over there if needful. I broke OPSEC and told them we have food, water, and cooking means. They have about two weeks of food and water but no cooking means if the electricity goes off.

    It is 71 F outside. In August during the heat of the day. Wild. And pouring down rain.

  33. SteveF says:

    who comes up with these terms

    The same people who assign odds to improbable events. “It’s a one-in-ten-thousand chance.” Those long odds hit much more often than you’d expect. Get me a grant and I’ll study why that may be.

  34. Ray Thompson says:

    Lower are 2 more USB ports and they are blue. My worthless Epson scanner was plugged into one

    A waste of a USB 3.0 port. USB 3.0 ports need only be used for devices that are USB 3.0 rated. Generally storage devices such as flash drives and external drives. Anything else will suffer just fine at USB 2.0 speeds.

    I have a couple of SSDs (180 G and 500 G) in external drive enclosures. Sucker are really fast when hooked to a USB 3.0 port. I have four USB 3.0 ports on two external cards on my current system. I use those ports when backing up to an external drive.

    An 18″ cord seems a bit on the short side

    Fairly standard on USB 3.0. Has to do with keeping the rated speed. There are longer cables but they can get expensive as the shielding requirements are much more stringent.

    I took another fall off the back porch steps yesterday afternoon; landed on my ass again

    That sucks. Keep it up and you are making me feel better all the time. Few physical ailments. Not the man of my youth but I don’t have any mobility problems, joint issues, etc. Just the discomfort from the back injury while in the service.

    And on a lighter note.

    Got my package in the mail from the Northern Nevada Railroad. You apparently have to take a test to operate the locomotive. They sent me the rule book, a whole bunch of pages, to study. Along with that they provided a copy of the test. I don’t know if I do the test now and show up and they sign off, or if I have to actually take a test when I arrive and the included test is so I can know the answers.

    So I am doing my Sheldon thing and having the spousal unit ask me the questions on the test and I am giving her the answers. Sort of feels like high school where you steal the test and memorize the answers.

    That adventure happens in about 18 days. Still undecided if the spousal unit will be in the cab. There is a road that parallels the tracks and I may have her follow the train and take pictures from the ground.

    I also have to purchase my engineers hat and the red scarf to go around the neck. If you are going to be a dork you need to look the part.

  35. Spook says:

    Sorry I’m so late getting this up…
    Per CNBC, NHK, and Yonhap (in that order),
    North Korea just launched another missile, over Japan.

  36. Spook says:

    Missile broke into three pieces. Near Hokaido(sp?).

  37. Spook says:

    Hokkaido

  38. Spook says:

    Correction: I haven’t found a link for this story for NHK.
    CNBC referred to NHK…

  39. Spook says:

    NHK broke the news on live TV, warning Japanese people to duck and cover as the missile was still flying in Japanese airspace. It’s not on (English) NHK website yet?

  40. rick says:

    Earthquake preparedness? That’s new since we left Vantucky in 2014. Are they anticipating something?

    The big fuss about the Cascadia Subduction Zone (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cascadia_subduction_zone) woke a few people up. If we get a 9.0 quake, things could be a mess here for a while.

  41. DadCooks says:

    Just one of many links on Drudge:
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4341924/north-korea-missile-launch-japan-kim-jong-un-latest/

    At the very least the area where the missile was launched from should be at least a smoking ruin now, preferably glassified.

  42. Nick Flandrey says:

    Updates from the one dry spot…

    Well not really dry.

    3.00in since 1am. steady drizzle, some gusts. Decided to fire the gennie up during daylight. Good thing. I put it away wet and the carb as plugged and dirty. Fired on first pull once the carb was clean and back together.

    Part of your preps needs to be the stuff to get your motor running. Carb cleaner, starting fluid, sheet of gasket paper… and you burn thru carb cleaner real quick.

    Water based rescue ops are ending for the night. Most of the boats do not have lights. Don’t know the resolution, but one boat capsized and the people said they couldn’t hold on to the the trees much longer. The dispatcher asked if anyone got them, but got no answer while the scan was on their freq.

    The sheriffs are currently discussing radio programming, they are testing that they’ve gotten the correct ids programmed. Thought they would have had all that already, but there are a massive number of agencies involved.

    Sheriff just reported that he can’t get into one of the shelters anymore, Cinco Ranch, water is over his hood. was advised to ‘stay below morton rd.’.

    scanner is providing good useful info, but my scan set is too big. I’ve been locking it onto ‘tactical’ channels when people were talking. Then releasing the hold after they finish. Good idea of the rescue efforts in the areas I’m monitoring.

    Some thoughts- if you are too fat to go on a regular stretcher, you are gonna drop down the list. If you are in a wheelchair, you are dropping down the list. Rescue is a very physical process. If one of your scenarios has you being rescued, get working on your physical…

    Lots of online stupidity happening in the comments over at Gateway Pundit. All the “why didn’t they evacuate, mayor is a murderer, dems are killing our people- they want them to die”, nonsense. some days I hate people more than others. FFS.

    n

  43. Nick Flandrey says:

    additional – having the school bus drivers in the scanner is proving surprisingly useful. They are being used for evac and consolidation and they are used to chattering like magpies. Ditto for Metro buses.

    n

  44. SteveF says:

    some days I hate people more than others.

    I hate my species only on days that end in a Y.

  45. Robert Bruce Thompson says:

    “get your motor running”

    Head out on the highway…

  46. paul says:

    A waste of a USB 3.0 port. USB 3.0 ports need only be used for devices that are USB 3.0 rated.

    I understand. My phone is USB. My Dymo label printer is USB. I have a few memory sticks that are USB. That’s all. My keyboard and mouse use the old style ports.

    And…. I didn’t know why the two USB ports were separate. I jacked the scanner there just for wire clutter control.

  47. MrAtoz says:

    At the very least the area where the missile was launched from should be at least a smoking ruin now, preferably glassified.

    I wonder if some strategic bombing/CM will take place in 24hrs. Some kind of response is required.

  48. Greg Norton says:

    At the very least the area where the missile was launched from should be at least a smoking ruin now, preferably glassified.

    Nah. They’re watching where the launcher truck rolls.

  49. Nightraker says:

    The real question about local public officials, particularly in rural or small jurisdictions is whose ox is going to be gored when the money tap is turned off or reduced to a trickle. Today’s “normal” sounding public official may be a venal wildcat when thing$ take a downturn.

    How elaborate are local public buildings / facilities? How nice are the employee cars parked at the courthouse or school admin lot and how many? Who supplies the school lunch food? What authority is responsible for defined benefit pensions? Who does the county contract with for highway maintenance and supplies?

    Follow the money since corruption’s name is government employee.

    Oh! Best wishes and thoughts for our correspondents and the rest of Texans.

  50. Tom Lucas says:

    Bay Area Baptist Church just had the shelter they set up closed by FEMA. They intend to transport everyone there to the George Brown Convention Center.

  51. Nick Flandrey says:

    “just had the shelter they set up closed by FEMA” this is typical of FEMA response. We’ve seen this before. FEMA will also commandeer facilities without compensation.

    You aren’t doing it right- is their mantra.

    n

  52. H. Combs says:

    Watching the TV I am OUTRAGED, OUTRAGED at the lack of diversity among the Looters.

  53. Ray Thompson says:

    the lack of diversity among the Looters

    Short, tall, fat, thin, ignorant, bald, hair. Seems like a lot of diversity. Well except for the ignorant part as they would all qualify.

  54. Nick Flandrey says:

    Well, sometime tonight it could get really interesting.

    The two big reservoirs that are near my house and protect downtown Houston from flash flooding had a press update that there could be “uncontrolled release.” We are getting close to the spillway level. 106.25 ft headed for 108 ft at the spillway for Addicks. Barker has 4ft to go.

    This is bad for the folks downstream. Better for me than overtopping and subsequent erosion and destruction of the dam. If it happens on the spillway side, it empties away from me. If on my side it has a couple of miles and a freeway to cross. Kids won’t be going back to school if that happens.

    Speaking of school, all the ISDs have their buses out working, and most have shelters set up. What are the odds that the people will be re-accommodated elsewhere and the schools cleaned and restocked for the kids in 7 days? Talk about unintended consequences.

    n

    Currently 71F, swirling gusts, light rain, 4.00 inches since 1am. power, cable, water and sewer still good.

  55. Dave Hardy says:

    Diversity is our vibrancy.

    WRT the NORKs; I feel sorta sure that this Administration is gonna do something pretty soon now, in some sorta mil-spec fashion, with or w/o Chicom or Russian approval. They may just need some sort of cover, like it works with the Israelis over in that region. In other words, the Chicoms might even give us the target data and then afterward throw a big hissy fit about it to make it look good. They don’t want a missile from the NORKs causing damage anywhere and they sure don’t want a shitload of NORK refugees streaming across their border. I’m thinking a cut-off-the-head-of-the-snake deal coming up. Give us the dude’s location; he’s usually hanging with his boyz so that will be frosting on the cake to nail them, too.

  56. Lynn says:

    We have gotten about 10 inches of rain today. Our levee pumps cannot handle the load and so there is 2 ft of water in the street. We cannot leave so it looks like we are riding the river crest out. Our neighbor has a 2 story so we are going over there if our house floods.

  57. Nick Flandrey says:

    Off to bed, stay safe Lynn

    n

  58. Dave Hardy says:

    Stay safe all youse down there; don’t screw around; do The Right Thing. Is Mr. ech and family OK?

    Had a pleasant surprise tonight with my first class back in grad skool after a quarter-century hiatus; no snowflakes and no PC bullshit. Prof/instructor is outstanding; very informative, been in the trenches, sense of humor, a font of info and tips in just two and a half hours. Class is around ten womyn and me and three other guys; all seem to be or have been working in the field in related gigs; one woman is an assistant middle-school principal and kinda hot. Several other hotties, kind of. But all working married moms, seems like. One chick is built like a stevedore and could probably kick all our asses w/o breaking a sweat.

    Gonna be a lotta reading and some writing and a bunch of theory stuff, but that’s OK. And these all seem to be regular Normals.

    Wife is very happy that it went OK and that I didn’t blow away a bunch of snowflakes and pajama boyz.

    You folks down in Texas are mos def in our thoughts and prayers and well-wishes tonight and throughout this whole giant mess. National Administrator tRump and his extremely hot wife will be flashing on down tomorrow so stay tuned, sportsfans.

  59. Nick Flandrey says:

    Well, maybe not to bed after all.

    Imagine the feelings of the mid level flunkie on the Death Star when they finished analyzing the Rebel plans and found that there was a small avenue of attack… well that’s me right now.

    Having taken a good look and done some more research, the “spillway” they are talking about is actually the north end of the eastern dike of the reservoir. The res is formed by 2 dikes at a right angle, the southern and the eastern. They make a corner than is the lowest spot, and the res fills up behind them.

    There isn’t a north or west dike. The “spillway” is simply when the water gets high enough to pass around the north end. It then goes into an improved channel that parallels the dike to the south until it joins the Buffalo bayou, down stream of the dam’s discharge.

    UNFORTUNATELY, the channel, called Turkey Creek, feeds into the start of Buttermilk Creek, which after a couple of miles, passes within a block of my house. SO, the overflow from the addicks res actually does have a path to my house. Extremely unlikely. Not a wall of water, but a path. And as the water goes around the end of the dike, it can erode the dike, which could lead to ever increasing failure as the 35ft wall of water the dike holds back finds a way out by essentially unzipping the dike from the north end.

    Unlikely. Slow moving disaster if it happens. No way enough water can get around the “spillway” to cause me problems. … .. unless the dike erodes.

    Bugger me with a broomstick.

    n

  60. Dave Hardy says:

    “Bugger me with a broomstick.”

    Sideways!

    Let’s hope that dike holds up. Just saw the predictions for a shit-ton of more rain down there. Damn. But I think the Houston mayor was probably right in not calling for an evac of a city that size. Gonna take some major hits but an evac would be orders of magnitude worse. Millions in a area the size of New Jersey? Criss-crossed by dozens and dozens of creeks, streams, canals, and other waterways, all connected to the Gulf.

    If I lived there now I’d seriously consider GTFO ASAP and finding another place to live and work.

    Mordor sits on a lot of wetland, too, as does a lot of NYC. Tens of millions of people living in major flood zones. Kinda like Bangladesh.

    For early AM perusing:

    http://www.woodpilereport.com/html/index-493.htm

  61. Dave Hardy says:

    From the We Gon Hab Us Sum Fun! Department:

    http://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/butterfly-flaps-wings/

    As ol’ Jimbo says, this could certainly be a Black Swan event that sets in motion a whole chit-ton of other chit.

  62. Robert Bruce Thompson says:

    Congrats, OFD. Sounds like your new career is progressing.

  63. SteveF says:

    Yes, congrats, OFD. I’d say you’ll get that degree by putting one foot in front of the other until it’s done, but you say you’re having some trouble walking so that would be a mean comment. And, as we all know, that would be something I’d never do. Instead I’ll just say you’ll watch that postmodern dance recital all the way to the end, one anorexic dancer in a lumberjack shirt and ballet slippers at a time. Yes, that’s a much better metaphor.

  64. MrAtoz says:

    And, as we all know, that would be something I’d never do.

    This is mean spirited. I going to stop sending you money. Don’t make me stop worshipping you, too.

  65. brad says:

    It’s good to hear that the regulars here are doing ok. From what semi-reliable information I’ve managed to find, the whole disaster is being handled really well. Few deaths, lots of people helping, relatively little looting. Maybe FEMA hasn’t gotten involved yet, to screw things up?

    That said, I just saw a news bulletin about levees being breached. Stay safe, folks…

    – – – – –

    Getting out of metropolitan areas: We aren’t really in one – more the suburbs of the suburbs. But we’ve starting talking to builders, for our move to the thriving metropolis of 19 people where we intend to move. Still a couple of years out – have to sell the current house, build, and move – but slowly in sight.

    It’s going to be small – just big enough for the 2 of us – maybe 1500 square feet or even less. But we’d like to do it right, since we intend to be carried out feet first.

    But what is “right”, ah, there’s the rub. My wife likes modern design: all straight lines, hard surfaces, etc.. To me, that looks very asceptic, like an operating room. I prefer something rustic and cozy, which she thinks is busy and claustrophobic. So there’s going to be…a lot of discussion…

    Do you know what it costs to build a house here? We already own the land; just the building costs will be at least $600k. Swiss prices are just nuts.

  66. Dave Hardy says:

    Good luck, Mr. brad, esp. w/those discussions! Wife and I have said the same thing about our little 1830 brick house of about that square footage; carried out feet-first. I generally defer to her interior and exterior visual expertise and she leaves my office and attic and cellar alone.

  67. brad says:

    “I generally defer to her interior and exterior visual expertise and she leaves my office and attic and cellar alone.”

    Yeah, I figure that’s how it’s likely to go. The only thing is: I really don’t want to hire some fancy architect for the whole build, because that will massively increase the building costs. So we’re talking about hiring a architect just for limited some design ideas. I’ve already found the general contractor I want to use (and he’s local to the area, which is important in rural areas).

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